Opinion Poll by Kantar TNS, 24–28 September 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 26.8% 24.9–28.9% 24.3–29.5% 23.8–30.0% 22.9–31.0%
Høyre 25.0% 26.8% 24.9–28.9% 24.3–29.5% 23.8–30.0% 22.9–31.0%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 12.7% 11.3–14.4% 10.9–14.8% 10.6–15.2% 9.9–16.0%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 10.4% 9.1–11.9% 8.8–12.4% 8.5–12.8% 7.9–13.5%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.6% 6.5–9.0% 6.2–9.4% 6.0–9.7% 5.5–10.4%
Rødt 2.4% 4.1% 3.3–5.1% 3.1–5.4% 2.9–5.7% 2.6–6.2%
Venstre 4.4% 4.1% 3.3–5.1% 3.1–5.4% 2.9–5.7% 2.6–6.2%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.8% 3.1–4.8% 2.9–5.1% 2.7–5.4% 2.4–5.9%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 2.4% 1.8–3.3% 1.7–3.5% 1.6–3.7% 1.3–4.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 49 44–52 44–53 43–55 42–57
Høyre 45 48 44–52 43–53 42–54 41–56
Fremskrittspartiet 27 23 19–26 19–26 19–28 17–30
Senterpartiet 19 19 16–22 16–22 15–23 14–25
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 13 11–16 11–17 11–18 10–19
Rødt 1 7 2–9 2–10 1–10 1–11
Venstre 8 7 2–9 2–9 2–10 2–11
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 2–8 1–9 1–9 1–10
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–7

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.4% 99.9%  
42 2% 99.5%  
43 2% 98%  
44 9% 96%  
45 4% 87%  
46 5% 83%  
47 12% 78%  
48 7% 66%  
49 18% 59% Last Result, Median
50 7% 41%  
51 12% 34%  
52 12% 22%  
53 5% 10%  
54 2% 4%  
55 0.9% 3%  
56 1.1% 2%  
57 0.4% 0.6%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 1.1% 99.7%  
42 3% 98.6%  
43 4% 96%  
44 8% 92%  
45 9% 84% Last Result
46 6% 75%  
47 7% 69%  
48 15% 62% Median
49 15% 47%  
50 5% 32%  
51 9% 27%  
52 9% 18%  
53 5% 9%  
54 1.2% 4%  
55 1.2% 2%  
56 0.9% 1.2%  
57 0.2% 0.3%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.2% 100%  
17 0.5% 99.8%  
18 1.4% 99.3%  
19 8% 98%  
20 6% 90%  
21 13% 84%  
22 17% 71%  
23 14% 54% Median
24 6% 40%  
25 18% 34%  
26 11% 16%  
27 2% 5% Last Result
28 1.4% 3%  
29 1.2% 2%  
30 0.1% 0.5%  
31 0.4% 0.4%  
32 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.2% 99.9%  
14 0.4% 99.7%  
15 3% 99.3%  
16 10% 96%  
17 8% 86%  
18 17% 78%  
19 17% 61% Last Result, Median
20 26% 44%  
21 7% 18%  
22 7% 10%  
23 2% 3%  
24 0.8% 2%  
25 0.7% 0.8%  
26 0% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.3% 100%  
10 2% 99.7%  
11 12% 98% Last Result
12 15% 86%  
13 26% 71% Median
14 18% 45%  
15 15% 27%  
16 4% 12%  
17 3% 8%  
18 4% 5%  
19 0.3% 0.6%  
20 0.3% 0.4%  
21 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 4% 100% Last Result
2 42% 96%  
3 0% 53%  
4 0% 53%  
5 0% 53%  
6 0% 53%  
7 18% 53% Median
8 19% 35%  
9 8% 16%  
10 7% 8%  
11 1.0% 1.2%  
12 0.1% 0.2%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 40% 99.9%  
3 3% 60%  
4 0% 57%  
5 0% 57%  
6 0% 57%  
7 14% 57% Median
8 30% 44% Last Result
9 10% 13%  
10 2% 3%  
11 0.9% 1.1%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 8% 99.8%  
2 4% 91%  
3 44% 87% Median
4 0% 43%  
5 0% 43%  
6 0% 43%  
7 19% 43%  
8 18% 24% Last Result
9 5% 6%  
10 0.7% 1.1%  
11 0.3% 0.4%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 16% 100%  
1 73% 84% Last Result, Median
2 10% 11%  
3 0.2% 0.9%  
4 0% 0.8%  
5 0% 0.8%  
6 0.1% 0.8%  
7 0.4% 0.7%  
8 0.3% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 101 100% 95–106 94–107 92–107 90–109
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 87 73% 82–93 82–95 81–96 78–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 86 61% 81–92 81–94 80–95 77–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 87 76% 82–92 81–93 79–94 77–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 83 26% 76–87 75–88 75–90 73–93
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 82 19% 75–86 74–87 74–89 72–92
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 83 39% 77–88 75–88 74–89 71–92
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 82 27% 76–87 74–87 73–88 70–91
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 77 1.3% 71–82 70–83 69–83 66–86
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 73 0.1% 69–79 67–80 65–81 64–83
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 72 0% 68–77 66–79 64–79 63–82
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 71 0% 65–76 63–78 63–79 62–81
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 69 0% 63–72 61–73 60–74 59–77
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 62 0% 57–67 55–67 55–69 54–71
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 59 0% 53–64 51–66 51–66 47–68
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 29 0% 24–35 23–37 22–37 20–38

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0% 100%  
88 0.1% 99.9%  
89 0.2% 99.8%  
90 0.8% 99.6%  
91 0.7% 98.8%  
92 1.5% 98%  
93 0.9% 97%  
94 3% 96%  
95 10% 93%  
96 12% 83%  
97 6% 71%  
98 1.4% 65%  
99 8% 63%  
100 5% 56% Median
101 4% 50%  
102 4% 46%  
103 10% 42%  
104 10% 33%  
105 3% 22%  
106 11% 19%  
107 5% 8% Last Result
108 2% 2%  
109 0.2% 0.7%  
110 0.3% 0.4%  
111 0.1% 0.1%  
112 0% 0.1%  
113 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.3% 99.9%  
78 0.8% 99.6%  
79 0.7% 98.8%  
80 0.5% 98%  
81 2% 98% Last Result
82 12% 95%  
83 5% 83%  
84 5% 78%  
85 12% 73% Majority
86 7% 61%  
87 5% 54%  
88 3% 49%  
89 7% 45% Median
90 11% 38%  
91 5% 27%  
92 5% 22%  
93 9% 17%  
94 2% 8%  
95 3% 6%  
96 0.4% 3%  
97 0.8% 2%  
98 0.9% 1.4%  
99 0.3% 0.5%  
100 0.2% 0.2%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.1% 99.8%  
77 0.4% 99.7%  
78 1.2% 99.3%  
79 0.5% 98%  
80 2% 98% Last Result
81 12% 95%  
82 5% 83%  
83 6% 78%  
84 12% 72%  
85 8% 61% Majority
86 4% 52%  
87 4% 49%  
88 8% 45% Median
89 5% 37%  
90 12% 31%  
91 3% 20%  
92 8% 17%  
93 3% 9%  
94 3% 6%  
95 0.5% 3%  
96 0.8% 2%  
97 0.7% 1.4%  
98 0.4% 0.6%  
99 0.2% 0.2%  
100 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.6% 99.8%  
78 0.9% 99.2%  
79 2% 98%  
80 0.8% 96%  
81 1.2% 95%  
82 7% 94%  
83 2% 87%  
84 9% 85%  
85 3% 76% Median, Majority
86 19% 73%  
87 6% 54%  
88 13% 48% Last Result
89 6% 35%  
90 10% 29%  
91 8% 19%  
92 3% 10%  
93 2% 7%  
94 3% 5%  
95 0.2% 2%  
96 1.0% 2%  
97 0.5% 0.7%  
98 0% 0.2%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.2% 99.9%  
73 0.4% 99.6%  
74 1.2% 99.3%  
75 7% 98%  
76 4% 91%  
77 3% 87%  
78 1.2% 84%  
79 3% 83%  
80 7% 80% Last Result
81 6% 73%  
82 5% 67% Median
83 26% 61%  
84 9% 36%  
85 9% 26% Majority
86 6% 17%  
87 3% 11%  
88 5% 9%  
89 0.6% 4%  
90 2% 3%  
91 0.5% 2%  
92 0.1% 1.1%  
93 0.8% 1.0%  
94 0% 0.3%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.3% 99.9%  
72 0.2% 99.6%  
73 1.4% 99.5%  
74 7% 98%  
75 3% 91%  
76 3% 88%  
77 2% 85%  
78 3% 83%  
79 8% 80% Last Result
80 6% 72%  
81 6% 66% Median
82 22% 60%  
83 13% 38%  
84 7% 26%  
85 8% 19% Majority
86 3% 11%  
87 4% 8%  
88 0.9% 4%  
89 1.3% 3%  
90 0.6% 2%  
91 0.1% 1.1%  
92 0.7% 0.9%  
93 0% 0.2%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.2% 100%  
71 0.4% 99.8%  
72 0.7% 99.4%  
73 0.8% 98.6%  
74 0.5% 98%  
75 3% 97%  
76 3% 94%  
77 8% 91%  
78 3% 83%  
79 12% 80%  
80 5% 69%  
81 8% 63%  
82 4% 55% Median
83 4% 51%  
84 8% 48%  
85 12% 39% Majority
86 6% 28%  
87 5% 22%  
88 12% 17%  
89 2% 5% Last Result
90 0.5% 2%  
91 1.2% 2%  
92 0.4% 0.7%  
93 0.1% 0.3%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.2% 100%  
70 0.3% 99.8%  
71 0.9% 99.5%  
72 0.8% 98.6%  
73 0.4% 98%  
74 3% 97%  
75 2% 94%  
76 9% 92%  
77 5% 83%  
78 5% 78%  
79 11% 73%  
80 7% 62%  
81 3% 55% Median
82 5% 51%  
83 7% 46%  
84 12% 39%  
85 5% 27% Majority
86 5% 22%  
87 12% 17%  
88 2% 5% Last Result
89 0.5% 2%  
90 0.7% 2%  
91 0.8% 1.2%  
92 0.3% 0.4%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.2% 99.8%  
66 0.3% 99.7%  
67 0.2% 99.4%  
68 0.5% 99.1%  
69 3% 98.6%  
70 3% 95%  
71 6% 92%  
72 4% 86%  
73 12% 82%  
74 3% 70%  
75 4% 67%  
76 12% 63%  
77 7% 51%  
78 5% 44% Median
79 9% 40%  
80 12% 30% Last Result
81 7% 19%  
82 5% 12%  
83 5% 8%  
84 0.9% 2%  
85 0.5% 1.3% Majority
86 0.5% 0.8%  
87 0.2% 0.3%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.2% 99.9%  
63 0.2% 99.7%  
64 1.3% 99.5%  
65 1.3% 98%  
66 0.7% 97%  
67 2% 96%  
68 2% 94%  
69 3% 92%  
70 6% 90%  
71 14% 84%  
72 7% 69% Median
73 17% 62%  
74 5% 45%  
75 6% 40%  
76 11% 35%  
77 8% 24% Last Result
78 5% 16%  
79 5% 11%  
80 4% 6%  
81 1.5% 3%  
82 0.4% 1.1%  
83 0.3% 0.7%  
84 0.3% 0.4%  
85 0.1% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.2% 99.9%  
62 0.2% 99.7%  
63 1.2% 99.5%  
64 1.4% 98%  
65 0.8% 97%  
66 1.4% 96%  
67 3% 95%  
68 3% 92%  
69 6% 89%  
70 9% 84%  
71 11% 74% Median
72 19% 63%  
73 4% 44%  
74 5% 40%  
75 12% 35%  
76 9% 24% Last Result
77 6% 15%  
78 4% 9%  
79 3% 5%  
80 2% 2%  
81 0.4% 0.9%  
82 0.3% 0.5%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.3% 99.9%  
61 0.1% 99.7%  
62 0.8% 99.6%  
63 5% 98.8%  
64 3% 93%  
65 1.4% 90%  
66 3% 89%  
67 5% 86%  
68 7% 81%  
69 5% 74%  
70 11% 68%  
71 10% 57% Median
72 4% 47% Last Result
73 13% 43%  
74 9% 29%  
75 8% 20%  
76 4% 12%  
77 1.3% 9%  
78 4% 7%  
79 1.4% 3%  
80 0.3% 2%  
81 1.2% 1.3%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0.3% 99.9%  
59 0.5% 99.6%  
60 2% 99.1%  
61 2% 97%  
62 2% 95%  
63 10% 93%  
64 4% 83%  
65 4% 79%  
66 5% 75%  
67 7% 70%  
68 12% 63% Last Result, Median
69 23% 51%  
70 6% 28%  
71 9% 22%  
72 7% 13%  
73 3% 6%  
74 0.8% 3%  
75 0.5% 2%  
76 0.2% 1.2%  
77 0.7% 1.0%  
78 0.2% 0.3%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.3% 99.9%  
54 0.4% 99.6%  
55 7% 99.2%  
56 1.1% 92%  
57 2% 91%  
58 3% 89%  
59 9% 86%  
60 8% 77% Last Result
61 3% 69%  
62 19% 67% Median
63 8% 48%  
64 12% 40%  
65 8% 28%  
66 5% 20%  
67 11% 15%  
68 1.3% 4%  
69 0.7% 3%  
70 1.1% 2%  
71 0.9% 1.4%  
72 0.2% 0.4%  
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.7% 99.9%  
48 0.3% 99.2%  
49 0.9% 98.9%  
50 0.4% 98%  
51 4% 98%  
52 2% 93%  
53 7% 91%  
54 8% 84%  
55 2% 77%  
56 9% 74%  
57 8% 65%  
58 6% 57% Median
59 8% 52%  
60 7% 44%  
61 5% 37% Last Result
62 15% 32%  
63 6% 17%  
64 2% 11%  
65 2% 9%  
66 5% 7%  
67 0.9% 2%  
68 0.3% 0.7%  
69 0.1% 0.4%  
70 0.2% 0.3%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.2% 99.9%  
20 0.8% 99.7%  
21 1.4% 98.9%  
22 1.4% 98%  
23 4% 96%  
24 4% 92%  
25 12% 88%  
26 6% 76%  
27 8% 70%  
28 7% 63%  
29 7% 56% Median
30 5% 48%  
31 9% 44%  
32 7% 34%  
33 12% 27%  
34 4% 15%  
35 2% 11% Last Result
36 3% 9%  
37 5% 6%  
38 0.3% 0.6%  
39 0.1% 0.3%  
40 0.1% 0.2%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations