Opinion Poll by Norstat, 24–29 September 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 26.9% 25.1–28.9% 24.6–29.4% 24.2–29.9% 23.3–30.8%
Høyre 25.0% 24.7% 22.9–26.6% 22.4–27.1% 22.0–27.6% 21.2–28.5%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 14.0% 12.6–15.5% 12.2–16.0% 11.9–16.4% 11.2–17.1%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 11.1% 9.9–12.6% 9.6–13.0% 9.3–13.4% 8.7–14.1%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.1% 6.2–8.4% 5.9–8.7% 5.7–9.0% 5.2–9.6%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 4.2% 3.5–5.2% 3.3–5.5% 3.1–5.7% 2.8–6.2%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.7% 3.0–4.6% 2.8–4.9% 2.6–5.1% 2.3–5.6%
Venstre 4.4% 3.5% 2.8–4.4% 2.6–4.6% 2.5–4.9% 2.2–5.3%
Rødt 2.4% 3.2% 2.6–4.1% 2.4–4.4% 2.3–4.6% 2.0–5.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 49 45–53 44–54 43–55 42–57
Høyre 45 45 41–48 41–49 40–50 38–52
Fremskrittspartiet 27 25 23–28 22–29 21–30 20–31
Senterpartiet 19 21 18–23 17–24 16–24 15–26
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 13 11–15 10–16 10–17 9–17
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 8 2–9 2–10 1–10 1–11
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 1–8 1–9 1–9 1–10
Venstre 8 2 2–8 2–8 2–9 1–9
Rødt 1 2 1–7 1–8 1–8 1–9

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.2% 100%  
42 0.6% 99.8%  
43 4% 99.2%  
44 2% 95%  
45 5% 93%  
46 17% 88%  
47 8% 71%  
48 10% 63%  
49 8% 53% Last Result, Median
50 13% 44%  
51 11% 31%  
52 10% 21%  
53 4% 10%  
54 2% 6%  
55 2% 4%  
56 2% 2%  
57 0.3% 0.6%  
58 0.2% 0.3%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 0.8% 99.7%  
39 1.0% 98.9%  
40 3% 98%  
41 8% 95%  
42 8% 88%  
43 10% 80%  
44 15% 69%  
45 19% 54% Last Result, Median
46 16% 35%  
47 3% 19%  
48 6% 16%  
49 6% 10%  
50 2% 4%  
51 0.7% 2%  
52 0.6% 1.1%  
53 0.4% 0.5%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.2% 99.9%  
20 0.9% 99.7%  
21 2% 98.8%  
22 5% 96%  
23 6% 91%  
24 14% 86%  
25 26% 72% Median
26 14% 46%  
27 19% 32% Last Result
28 6% 13%  
29 4% 7%  
30 2% 3%  
31 0.8% 1.1%  
32 0.2% 0.3%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 1.2% 100%  
16 3% 98.8%  
17 6% 96%  
18 7% 90%  
19 10% 83% Last Result
20 13% 73%  
21 30% 60% Median
22 17% 30%  
23 6% 13%  
24 6% 8%  
25 0.8% 1.4%  
26 0.4% 0.6%  
27 0.1% 0.2%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 0.6% 99.9%  
10 5% 99.3%  
11 9% 94% Last Result
12 26% 85%  
13 17% 59% Median
14 28% 42%  
15 7% 14%  
16 4% 7%  
17 3% 3%  
18 0.3% 0.5%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 3% 100% Last Result
2 17% 97%  
3 9% 81%  
4 0.1% 71%  
5 0% 71%  
6 0% 71%  
7 8% 71%  
8 42% 63% Median
9 12% 21%  
10 7% 9%  
11 1.0% 1.3%  
12 0.2% 0.3%  
13 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100%  
1 14% 99.6%  
2 6% 86%  
3 53% 80% Median
4 0% 28%  
5 0% 28%  
6 0% 28%  
7 10% 28%  
8 12% 18% Last Result
9 5% 6%  
10 0.8% 1.0%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 1.4% 100%  
2 71% 98.6% Median
3 3% 27%  
4 0% 24%  
5 0% 24%  
6 0.1% 24%  
7 8% 24%  
8 14% 17% Last Result
9 2% 3%  
10 0.4% 0.4%  
11 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 24% 100% Last Result
2 64% 76% Median
3 0% 12%  
4 0% 12%  
5 0% 12%  
6 0.5% 12%  
7 6% 12%  
8 5% 6%  
9 1.3% 1.4%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 99 100% 93–103 92–104 91–105 88–108
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 93 98% 89–98 87–99 85–100 83–102
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 92 96% 86–97 85–97 84–99 81–101
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 90 87% 84–94 82–95 81–96 78–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 84 48% 80–90 78–91 78–93 75–96
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 85 52% 79–89 78–91 76–91 73–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 82 29% 77–88 76–89 75–90 73–92
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 80 11% 75–85 74–86 72–87 70–90
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 77 4% 72–83 72–84 70–85 68–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 74 0.1% 68–78 67–80 66–82 64–83
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 74 0.3% 69–77 68–80 67–81 64–83
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 62 70 0% 66–76 65–77 64–78 61–81
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 70 0% 66–74 64–75 63–76 61–80
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 69 0% 65–74 64–75 62–76 61–79
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 62 0% 58–66 56–68 55–69 54–71
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 51 0% 48–57 47–58 46–59 44–62
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 27 0% 24–32 22–34 22–36 21–37

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0.1% 100%  
87 0.2% 99.9%  
88 0.3% 99.7%  
89 1.1% 99.4%  
90 0.7% 98%  
91 1.2% 98%  
92 2% 96%  
93 5% 95%  
94 6% 90%  
95 8% 83%  
96 5% 75% Median
97 12% 69%  
98 8% 58%  
99 17% 50%  
100 6% 33%  
101 11% 26%  
102 5% 15%  
103 3% 10%  
104 4% 8%  
105 1.3% 4%  
106 0.5% 2%  
107 1.2% 2% Last Result
108 0.4% 0.7%  
109 0.2% 0.3%  
110 0.1% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100%  
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.3% 99.8%  
83 0.2% 99.5%  
84 0.8% 99.3%  
85 2% 98% Majority
86 1.5% 97%  
87 2% 95%  
88 3% 93% Last Result
89 5% 90%  
90 10% 85%  
91 8% 75%  
92 8% 67%  
93 14% 59%  
94 10% 45% Median
95 12% 35%  
96 10% 23%  
97 1.4% 13%  
98 6% 12%  
99 3% 6%  
100 1.2% 3%  
101 0.6% 1.3%  
102 0.3% 0.8%  
103 0.3% 0.5%  
104 0.1% 0.2%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 0.3% 99.9%  
80 0.1% 99.7%  
81 0.2% 99.6% Last Result
82 0.4% 99.4%  
83 1.0% 99.0%  
84 2% 98%  
85 2% 96% Majority
86 4% 94%  
87 4% 90%  
88 5% 86%  
89 13% 81%  
90 7% 67%  
91 7% 60%  
92 13% 53%  
93 11% 40% Median
94 10% 28%  
95 5% 18%  
96 3% 14%  
97 7% 10%  
98 0.9% 4%  
99 1.4% 3%  
100 0.6% 1.5%  
101 0.6% 0.8%  
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100%  
77 0.2% 99.9%  
78 0.3% 99.8%  
79 0.4% 99.5%  
80 0.4% 99.1% Last Result
81 1.3% 98.6%  
82 4% 97%  
83 3% 94%  
84 3% 90%  
85 5% 87% Majority
86 7% 82%  
87 11% 75%  
88 9% 64%  
89 4% 55%  
90 14% 51%  
91 12% 37% Median
92 8% 24%  
93 5% 17%  
94 2% 12%  
95 6% 10%  
96 2% 3%  
97 0.5% 1.3%  
98 0.5% 0.9%  
99 0.2% 0.3%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.3% 99.8%  
76 0.6% 99.5%  
77 0.9% 98.9%  
78 3% 98%  
79 2% 95%  
80 4% 92% Last Result
81 12% 88%  
82 6% 77%  
83 7% 71%  
84 16% 64%  
85 9% 48% Median, Majority
86 6% 39%  
87 7% 33%  
88 5% 26%  
89 8% 21%  
90 3% 13%  
91 5% 10%  
92 2% 5%  
93 2% 3%  
94 0.3% 1.2%  
95 0.1% 0.9%  
96 0.4% 0.8%  
97 0.1% 0.4%  
98 0.3% 0.4%  
99 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.3% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.6%  
73 0.4% 99.6%  
74 0.1% 99.2%  
75 0.3% 99.1%  
76 2% 98.8%  
77 2% 97%  
78 5% 95%  
79 3% 90%  
80 8% 87%  
81 5% 79%  
82 7% 74%  
83 6% 67% Median
84 9% 61%  
85 16% 52% Majority
86 7% 36%  
87 6% 29%  
88 12% 23%  
89 4% 12% Last Result
90 2% 8%  
91 3% 5%  
92 0.9% 2%  
93 0.6% 1.1%  
94 0.3% 0.5%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.2% 99.9%  
73 0.5% 99.8%  
74 1.1% 99.3%  
75 1.2% 98%  
76 4% 97%  
77 4% 93%  
78 4% 89%  
79 12% 86% Last Result
80 7% 74%  
81 7% 66%  
82 16% 60%  
83 10% 44% Median
84 6% 34%  
85 4% 29% Majority
86 7% 25%  
87 6% 18%  
88 3% 11%  
89 5% 8%  
90 1.0% 3%  
91 1.0% 2%  
92 1.1% 1.4%  
93 0.1% 0.3%  
94 0% 0.3%  
95 0.2% 0.2%  
96 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.2% 99.8%  
70 0.4% 99.6%  
71 1.1% 99.2%  
72 0.9% 98%  
73 2% 97%  
74 2% 96%  
75 5% 93%  
76 6% 88%  
77 6% 83% Last Result
78 11% 77%  
79 13% 66%  
80 7% 53%  
81 11% 46% Median
82 12% 35%  
83 7% 23%  
84 5% 16%  
85 6% 11% Majority
86 0.9% 5%  
87 2% 4%  
88 1.3% 2%  
89 0.2% 0.9%  
90 0.5% 0.7%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.6% 99.8%  
69 0.6% 99.2%  
70 1.4% 98.5%  
71 0.9% 97%  
72 7% 96%  
73 3% 90%  
74 5% 86%  
75 10% 82% Median
76 11% 72%  
77 13% 60%  
78 7% 47%  
79 7% 40%  
80 13% 33%  
81 5% 19%  
82 4% 14%  
83 4% 10%  
84 2% 6%  
85 2% 4% Majority
86 1.0% 2%  
87 0.4% 1.0%  
88 0.2% 0.6% Last Result
89 0.1% 0.4%  
90 0.3% 0.3%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.2% 100%  
64 0.3% 99.8%  
65 1.0% 99.5%  
66 1.0% 98%  
67 3% 97%  
68 5% 95%  
69 3% 90%  
70 10% 86%  
71 14% 77%  
72 7% 62%  
73 4% 55% Median
74 13% 51%  
75 9% 38%  
76 10% 30% Last Result
77 4% 20%  
78 7% 16%  
79 2% 9%  
80 2% 6%  
81 1.4% 4%  
82 2% 3%  
83 0.5% 0.9%  
84 0.3% 0.4%  
85 0.1% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.3% 99.9%  
64 0.3% 99.6%  
65 0.8% 99.3%  
66 1.0% 98%  
67 2% 98%  
68 2% 96%  
69 6% 94%  
70 4% 88%  
71 10% 84%  
72 11% 74% Median
73 12% 63%  
74 14% 51%  
75 10% 37%  
76 6% 27%  
77 11% 21%  
78 3% 10%  
79 1.4% 7%  
80 2% 5% Last Result
81 0.9% 3%  
82 0.9% 2%  
83 0.7% 1.1%  
84 0.1% 0.4%  
85 0.2% 0.3% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.2% 99.9%  
61 0.4% 99.7%  
62 1.2% 99.3% Last Result
63 0.5% 98%  
64 1.3% 98%  
65 4% 96%  
66 3% 92%  
67 5% 90%  
68 11% 85%  
69 6% 74%  
70 17% 67%  
71 8% 50%  
72 12% 42% Median
73 5% 31%  
74 8% 25%  
75 6% 17%  
76 5% 10%  
77 2% 5%  
78 1.2% 4%  
79 0.7% 2%  
80 1.1% 2%  
81 0.3% 0.6%  
82 0.2% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.4% 99.8%  
62 1.3% 99.4%  
63 1.1% 98%  
64 2% 97%  
65 3% 95%  
66 4% 92%  
67 8% 89%  
68 5% 80%  
69 18% 75%  
70 11% 57% Median
71 13% 46%  
72 11% 33% Last Result
73 9% 22%  
74 6% 13%  
75 3% 7%  
76 2% 4%  
77 0.5% 2%  
78 0.6% 2%  
79 0.5% 1.1%  
80 0.5% 0.6%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.2% 99.9%  
61 0.5% 99.8%  
62 2% 99.2%  
63 2% 97%  
64 5% 95%  
65 5% 90%  
66 4% 85%  
67 13% 82%  
68 15% 69% Last Result
69 9% 54%  
70 5% 45% Median
71 12% 40%  
72 5% 28%  
73 9% 23%  
74 4% 13%  
75 6% 9%  
76 0.8% 3%  
77 0.7% 2%  
78 0.4% 2%  
79 1.1% 1.3%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 0.4% 99.7%  
55 2% 99.3%  
56 3% 97%  
57 2% 94%  
58 11% 92%  
59 6% 81%  
60 13% 75% Last Result
61 9% 62%  
62 12% 53% Median
63 9% 41%  
64 8% 31%  
65 7% 24%  
66 8% 16%  
67 3% 9%  
68 2% 6%  
69 1.5% 3%  
70 0.7% 2%  
71 0.5% 0.9%  
72 0.2% 0.3%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.2% 99.8%  
44 0.7% 99.7%  
45 0.9% 99.0%  
46 3% 98%  
47 3% 95%  
48 9% 92%  
49 6% 83%  
50 12% 76% Median
51 14% 64%  
52 6% 50%  
53 7% 44%  
54 10% 38%  
55 10% 28%  
56 6% 18%  
57 5% 12%  
58 2% 7%  
59 2% 5%  
60 0.9% 2%  
61 0.3% 1.3% Last Result
62 0.5% 1.0%  
63 0.1% 0.4%  
64 0.2% 0.3%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.3% 99.8%  
21 1.0% 99.5%  
22 4% 98%  
23 3% 95%  
24 8% 92%  
25 8% 84%  
26 12% 76% Median
27 14% 63%  
28 5% 49%  
29 11% 44%  
30 6% 32%  
31 6% 26%  
32 11% 20%  
33 4% 9%  
34 2% 5%  
35 1.1% 4% Last Result
36 2% 3%  
37 0.6% 1.0%  
38 0.2% 0.3%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations