Opinion Poll by Norfakta, 2–3 October 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 28.2% 26.4–30.1% 25.9–30.6% 25.5–31.0% 24.6–32.0%
Høyre 25.0% 26.0% 24.2–27.8% 23.8–28.3% 23.4–28.8% 22.5–29.7%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 13.3% 12.0–14.8% 11.6–15.2% 11.3–15.5% 10.7–16.3%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 11.2% 10.0–12.6% 9.7–13.0% 9.4–13.3% 8.8–14.0%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 6.6% 5.7–7.7% 5.4–8.0% 5.2–8.3% 4.8–8.9%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–6.0%
Rødt 2.4% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.6–5.9%
Venstre 4.4% 2.4% 1.9–3.2% 1.7–3.4% 1.6–3.6% 1.4–3.9%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 2.2% 1.7–2.9% 1.6–3.1% 1.4–3.3% 1.2–3.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 52 48–54 48–55 47–56 44–59
Høyre 45 45 44–50 43–52 42–53 41–54
Fremskrittspartiet 27 24 22–27 21–27 20–28 19–29
Senterpartiet 19 20 19–22 18–22 17–24 16–25
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 11 11–14 10–15 10–15 9–16
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 8 3–8 3–9 2–10 1–10
Rødt 1 7 2–9 2–9 2–10 1–10
Venstre 8 2 1–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 1 0–1 0–2 0–2 0–2

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.7% 99.9%  
45 0.6% 99.2%  
46 0.8% 98.6%  
47 2% 98%  
48 8% 96%  
49 2% 87% Last Result
50 9% 86%  
51 7% 77%  
52 47% 70% Median
53 6% 23%  
54 7% 17%  
55 6% 10%  
56 2% 4%  
57 1.3% 2%  
58 0.3% 0.9%  
59 0.4% 0.6%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 2% 99.9%  
42 2% 98%  
43 2% 96%  
44 42% 94%  
45 12% 52% Last Result, Median
46 5% 41%  
47 6% 36%  
48 9% 30%  
49 7% 21%  
50 5% 14%  
51 3% 10%  
52 2% 6%  
53 4% 5%  
54 0.5% 0.7%  
55 0.2% 0.3%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.5% 99.8%  
20 3% 99.4%  
21 4% 96%  
22 10% 92%  
23 10% 82%  
24 45% 72% Median
25 9% 27%  
26 5% 18%  
27 9% 12% Last Result
28 2% 3%  
29 2% 2%  
30 0.1% 0.3%  
31 0.1% 0.2%  
32 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.7% 99.9%  
17 3% 99.2%  
18 6% 96%  
19 8% 90% Last Result
20 52% 82% Median
21 14% 29%  
22 10% 15%  
23 2% 5%  
24 2% 3%  
25 0.6% 1.0%  
26 0.3% 0.4%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.2% 100%  
9 2% 99.8%  
10 5% 98%  
11 62% 93% Last Result, Median
12 10% 31%  
13 5% 22%  
14 11% 17%  
15 4% 6%  
16 2% 2%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100%  
2 3% 98%  
3 22% 96%  
4 0% 74%  
5 0% 74%  
6 0% 74%  
7 12% 74%  
8 53% 62% Last Result, Median
9 6% 9%  
10 3% 3%  
11 0.3% 0.4%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 1.3% 100% Last Result
2 27% 98.7%  
3 0% 72%  
4 0% 72%  
5 0% 72%  
6 0% 72%  
7 45% 72% Median
8 14% 27%  
9 10% 13%  
10 2% 3%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100%  
1 20% 93%  
2 73% 74% Median
3 0.1% 0.4%  
4 0% 0.3%  
5 0% 0.3%  
6 0% 0.3%  
7 0.2% 0.3%  
8 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 13% 100%  
1 78% 87% Last Result, Median
2 8% 9%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0.1%  
5 0% 0.1%  
6 0% 0.1%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 98 100% 95–102 94–104 93–106 91–107
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 92 98% 87–94 85–96 85–97 83–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 91 96% 87–95 85–95 84–97 82–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 90 92% 86–94 84–94 83–96 81–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 84 39% 81–88 79–90 78–90 76–93
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 83 33% 81–87 78–88 78–89 76–92
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 79 8% 75–83 75–85 73–86 71–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 81 4% 74–83 74–84 73–85 70–87
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 80 3% 73–81 73–83 73–85 69–86
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 78 4% 74–82 74–84 72–85 70–87
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 70 0% 69–76 67–79 67–79 64–82
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 69 0% 68–75 65–77 65–78 63–80
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 72 0% 68–75 66–76 66–77 65–80
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 62 71 0% 67–74 65–75 63–76 62–78
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 63 0% 61–66 59–68 58–69 55–70
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 54 0% 52–58 50–59 49–61 46–63
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 30 0% 24–30 24–32 23–33 21–35

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0.1% 100%  
90 0.1% 99.9%  
91 0.5% 99.8%  
92 2% 99.3%  
93 1.0% 98%  
94 2% 97%  
95 12% 95%  
96 3% 83%  
97 5% 80%  
98 40% 75%  
99 6% 35% Median
100 4% 29%  
101 6% 25%  
102 10% 19%  
103 1.3% 10%  
104 4% 8%  
105 0.9% 4%  
106 2% 3%  
107 1.1% 2% Last Result
108 0.2% 0.4%  
109 0.1% 0.2%  
110 0% 0.1%  
111 0.1% 0.1%  
112 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.2% 100%  
81 0.2% 99.8%  
82 0.1% 99.6%  
83 0.4% 99.5%  
84 0.9% 99.1%  
85 4% 98% Majority
86 4% 95%  
87 2% 91%  
88 9% 88% Last Result
89 6% 79%  
90 5% 73%  
91 3% 68%  
92 42% 65% Median
93 6% 24%  
94 9% 18%  
95 3% 9%  
96 2% 6%  
97 2% 4%  
98 2% 2%  
99 0.4% 0.7%  
100 0.1% 0.3%  
101 0.2% 0.2%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100%  
80 0.1% 99.9%  
81 0.3% 99.9% Last Result
82 0.1% 99.5%  
83 2% 99.5%  
84 2% 98%  
85 4% 96% Majority
86 0.8% 92%  
87 9% 92%  
88 4% 83%  
89 7% 79%  
90 5% 72%  
91 43% 66% Median
92 2% 23%  
93 6% 21%  
94 3% 15%  
95 8% 12%  
96 0.9% 4%  
97 2% 3%  
98 0.3% 1.0%  
99 0.2% 0.7%  
100 0.4% 0.5%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.2% 99.8% Last Result
81 0.2% 99.6%  
82 1.4% 99.5%  
83 2% 98%  
84 4% 96%  
85 0.9% 92% Majority
86 6% 92%  
87 10% 85%  
88 2% 75%  
89 7% 73%  
90 44% 67% Median
91 2% 23%  
92 3% 21%  
93 5% 18%  
94 9% 13%  
95 2% 4%  
96 2% 3%  
97 0.3% 1.0%  
98 0.2% 0.7%  
99 0.4% 0.5%  
100 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.5% 99.8%  
77 0.4% 99.3%  
78 2% 98.9%  
79 2% 97%  
80 1.0% 94% Last Result
81 3% 93%  
82 5% 90%  
83 4% 85%  
84 42% 81% Median
85 11% 39% Majority
86 9% 29%  
87 9% 20%  
88 3% 11%  
89 3% 8%  
90 3% 5%  
91 0.4% 2%  
92 0.4% 1.4%  
93 0.8% 1.0%  
94 0.1% 0.3%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.2% 99.8%  
76 0.7% 99.6%  
77 1.4% 98.9%  
78 3% 98%  
79 2% 95% Last Result
80 3% 93%  
81 5% 90%  
82 4% 85%  
83 43% 81% Median
84 6% 39%  
85 16% 33% Majority
86 4% 17%  
87 4% 12%  
88 4% 8%  
89 2% 4%  
90 0.3% 2%  
91 0.5% 2%  
92 0.8% 1.1%  
93 0.1% 0.3%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.4% 100%  
71 0.2% 99.5%  
72 0.3% 99.3%  
73 2% 99.0%  
74 2% 97%  
75 9% 96%  
76 5% 87%  
77 3% 82%  
78 2% 79%  
79 44% 77%  
80 7% 33% Median
81 2% 27%  
82 10% 25%  
83 6% 15%  
84 0.9% 8%  
85 4% 8% Majority
86 2% 4%  
87 1.4% 2%  
88 0.2% 0.5%  
89 0.2% 0.4% Last Result
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.3% 99.9%  
70 0.2% 99.6%  
71 0.4% 99.4%  
72 0.8% 99.0%  
73 2% 98%  
74 7% 96%  
75 5% 90%  
76 4% 85%  
77 7% 81% Last Result
78 6% 74%  
79 7% 68%  
80 3% 61%  
81 43% 58% Median
82 3% 16%  
83 8% 13%  
84 1.3% 5%  
85 2% 4% Majority
86 2% 2%  
87 0.3% 0.5%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.2% 99.9%  
69 0.2% 99.7%  
70 0.5% 99.5%  
71 0.8% 99.0%  
72 0.5% 98%  
73 8% 98%  
74 4% 89%  
75 4% 85%  
76 4% 81% Last Result
77 9% 77%  
78 5% 68%  
79 5% 63%  
80 42% 58% Median
81 6% 16%  
82 4% 10%  
83 1.4% 5%  
84 0.9% 4%  
85 3% 3% Majority
86 0.4% 0.6%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.4% 100%  
70 0.2% 99.5%  
71 0.3% 99.3%  
72 2% 99.0%  
73 0.9% 97%  
74 8% 96%  
75 3% 88%  
76 6% 85%  
77 2% 79%  
78 43% 77%  
79 5% 34% Median
80 7% 28%  
81 4% 21%  
82 9% 17%  
83 0.8% 8%  
84 4% 8%  
85 2% 4% Majority
86 2% 2%  
87 0.1% 0.5%  
88 0.3% 0.5% Last Result
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 1.2% 99.9%  
65 0.2% 98.7%  
66 0.9% 98.5%  
67 5% 98%  
68 1.0% 93%  
69 2% 92%  
70 41% 89%  
71 9% 48% Median
72 3% 39%  
73 11% 36%  
74 6% 25%  
75 5% 20%  
76 6% 15%  
77 3% 9%  
78 0.7% 7%  
79 4% 6%  
80 0.4% 2% Last Result
81 0.1% 1.3%  
82 1.1% 1.2%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 1.2% 99.9%  
64 0.9% 98.7%  
65 4% 98%  
66 2% 94%  
67 2% 92%  
68 40% 90%  
69 6% 50% Median
70 2% 44%  
71 11% 41%  
72 10% 30% Last Result
73 3% 20%  
74 7% 18%  
75 4% 11%  
76 1.1% 7%  
77 1.2% 6%  
78 3% 5%  
79 0.1% 1.3%  
80 1.1% 1.2%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.2% 99.8%  
65 2% 99.6%  
66 3% 98%  
67 2% 95%  
68 4% 93% Last Result
69 2% 89%  
70 8% 87%  
71 7% 79%  
72 42% 71% Median
73 4% 29%  
74 13% 25%  
75 4% 12%  
76 3% 8%  
77 3% 4%  
78 0.9% 2%  
79 0.3% 0.8%  
80 0.1% 0.5%  
81 0.2% 0.4%  
82 0.2% 0.2%  
83 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0% 99.9%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.2% 99.8%  
62 1.1% 99.6% Last Result
63 2% 98%  
64 0.9% 97%  
65 4% 96%  
66 1.3% 92%  
67 10% 90%  
68 6% 81%  
69 4% 75%  
70 6% 71%  
71 40% 65% Median
72 5% 25%  
73 3% 20%  
74 12% 17%  
75 2% 5%  
76 1.0% 3%  
77 2% 2%  
78 0.5% 0.7%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.3% 100%  
55 0.6% 99.7%  
56 0.5% 99.1%  
57 0.8% 98.6%  
58 0.6% 98%  
59 3% 97%  
60 4% 94% Last Result
61 4% 91%  
62 7% 87%  
63 45% 79% Median
64 11% 34%  
65 7% 23%  
66 6% 16%  
67 3% 10%  
68 2% 7%  
69 3% 4%  
70 0.5% 0.9%  
71 0.1% 0.4%  
72 0.1% 0.3%  
73 0.2% 0.3%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.2% 100%  
46 0.6% 99.8%  
47 0.5% 99.2%  
48 0.5% 98.7%  
49 2% 98%  
50 3% 96%  
51 0.5% 93%  
52 8% 93%  
53 10% 85%  
54 45% 74%  
55 7% 30% Median
56 2% 23%  
57 10% 21%  
58 3% 11%  
59 4% 8%  
60 0.9% 3%  
61 1.5% 3% Last Result
62 0.4% 1.1%  
63 0.4% 0.7%  
64 0.1% 0.3%  
65 0.2% 0.2%  
66 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100%  
20 0.1% 99.9%  
21 1.4% 99.9%  
22 0.8% 98.5%  
23 2% 98%  
24 12% 96%  
25 2% 84%  
26 7% 83%  
27 3% 76%  
28 5% 73%  
29 8% 67%  
30 51% 59% Median
31 3% 8%  
32 2% 6%  
33 1.0% 3%  
34 1.4% 2%  
35 0.3% 0.7% Last Result
36 0.3% 0.4%  
37 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations