Opinion Poll by InFact, 9–10 October 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 26.1% 24.3–27.9% 23.9–28.4% 23.4–28.9% 22.6–29.8%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 24.4% 22.7–26.2% 22.2–26.7% 21.8–27.1% 21.0–28.0%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 14.7% 13.3–16.2% 12.9–16.6% 12.6–17.0% 12.0–17.7%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 11.2% 10.0–12.6% 9.7–13.0% 9.4–13.3% 8.9–14.0%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 5.7% 4.9–6.8% 4.7–7.1% 4.5–7.4% 4.1–7.9%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.8% 4.0–5.7% 3.8–6.0% 3.6–6.3% 3.3–6.8%
Rødt 2.4% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.2% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–5.9%
Venstre 4.4% 3.8% 3.1–4.7% 2.9–4.9% 2.8–5.1% 2.5–5.6%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 2.7% 2.1–3.5% 2.0–3.7% 1.8–3.9% 1.6–4.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 48 44–51 43–52 42–54 40–54
Arbeiderpartiet 49 44 41–48 40–49 40–50 38–52
Fremskrittspartiet 27 27 24–29 24–30 23–31 21–33
Senterpartiet 19 20 18–23 17–24 17–24 16–26
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 10 9–12 8–13 8–13 7–14
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 9 3–11 3–11 3–11 3–12
Rødt 1 7 2–9 2–9 2–10 1–10
Venstre 8 2 2–8 2–9 2–9 2–10
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 1 1–2 1–2 0–3 0–8

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.3% 99.8%  
41 1.0% 99.5%  
42 3% 98%  
43 3% 95%  
44 6% 92%  
45 9% 86% Last Result
46 6% 77%  
47 17% 71%  
48 10% 54% Median
49 15% 44%  
50 13% 30%  
51 10% 17%  
52 3% 7%  
53 1.1% 4%  
54 2% 3%  
55 0.2% 0.4%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.2% 100%  
38 0.5% 99.8%  
39 1.3% 99.3%  
40 4% 98%  
41 5% 94%  
42 13% 89%  
43 17% 76%  
44 12% 59% Median
45 9% 47%  
46 20% 38%  
47 8% 18%  
48 3% 10%  
49 2% 7% Last Result
50 3% 4%  
51 1.1% 2%  
52 0.3% 0.5%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100%  
21 0.4% 99.8%  
22 2% 99.4%  
23 2% 98%  
24 8% 95%  
25 15% 88%  
26 16% 73%  
27 21% 57% Last Result, Median
28 14% 36%  
29 14% 22%  
30 5% 8%  
31 1.3% 3%  
32 0.6% 1.3%  
33 0.5% 0.7%  
34 0.1% 0.2%  
35 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.2% 100%  
16 0.8% 99.8%  
17 6% 99.0%  
18 10% 93%  
19 16% 83% Last Result
20 25% 67% Median
21 16% 42%  
22 11% 26%  
23 9% 15%  
24 4% 6%  
25 1.3% 2%  
26 0.5% 0.8%  
27 0.3% 0.3%  
28 0% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.2% 100%  
3 0.2% 99.8%  
4 0% 99.6%  
5 0% 99.6%  
6 0% 99.6%  
7 0.7% 99.6%  
8 6% 98.9%  
9 24% 93%  
10 21% 69% Median
11 22% 47% Last Result
12 18% 25%  
13 5% 7%  
14 2% 2%  
15 0.4% 0.4%  
16 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 0.1% 99.9%  
3 13% 99.8%  
4 0% 87%  
5 0% 87%  
6 0.2% 87%  
7 6% 87%  
8 22% 81% Last Result
9 29% 59% Median
10 18% 30%  
11 11% 12%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0.2% 0.3%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100% Last Result
2 41% 98%  
3 0% 57%  
4 0% 57%  
5 0% 57%  
6 0.2% 57%  
7 19% 57% Median
8 22% 38%  
9 12% 16%  
10 3% 3%  
11 0.4% 0.5%  
12 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.2% 100%  
2 58% 99.8% Median
3 9% 42%  
4 0% 33%  
5 0% 33%  
6 0.1% 33%  
7 12% 33%  
8 15% 21% Last Result
9 5% 6%  
10 1.3% 1.4%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 63% 96% Last Result, Median
2 31% 34%  
3 2% 3%  
4 0.2% 1.3%  
5 0% 1.2%  
6 0% 1.2%  
7 0.6% 1.2%  
8 0.5% 0.6%  
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 108 100% 103–112 101–113 99–114 97–116
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 88 85% 84–93 82–94 80–95 78–98
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 87 77% 82–92 80–93 79–94 77–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 85 52% 80–90 79–90 77–92 76–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 82 22% 77–87 76–89 75–90 73–92
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 81 14% 76–85 75–87 74–89 71–91
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 78 7% 74–84 73–85 72–85 70–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 76 1.3% 72–81 71–82 69–84 68–86
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 75 0.5% 71–80 70–81 68–82 67–85
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 75 0.1% 70–78 69–80 68–82 66–83
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 74 0.2% 70–79 69–80 68–81 66–84
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 73 0% 69–77 68–78 66–80 65–82
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 65 0% 61–69 60–70 59–71 57–74
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 62 61 0% 57–66 56–68 55–70 53–72
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 60 0% 55–65 54–67 52–68 50–70
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 55 0% 51–58 50–60 49–62 48–62
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 33 0% 28–37 27–39 25–39 24–42

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
95 0.1% 100%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 2% 99.8%  
98 0.5% 98%  
99 0.5% 98%  
100 1.2% 97%  
101 2% 96%  
102 2% 93%  
103 4% 92%  
104 8% 88%  
105 8% 80%  
106 10% 72% Median
107 10% 62% Last Result
108 19% 52%  
109 9% 33%  
110 9% 24%  
111 4% 15%  
112 2% 11%  
113 5% 9%  
114 2% 4%  
115 0.8% 2%  
116 0.4% 0.7%  
117 0.2% 0.3%  
118 0.1% 0.1%  
119 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.1% 99.8%  
78 1.3% 99.7%  
79 0.6% 98%  
80 0.6% 98%  
81 2% 97%  
82 3% 96%  
83 2% 93%  
84 5% 90%  
85 6% 85% Majority
86 7% 80%  
87 7% 73% Median
88 17% 65%  
89 13% 49% Last Result
90 11% 36%  
91 7% 25%  
92 5% 18%  
93 5% 13%  
94 3% 8%  
95 3% 5%  
96 0.6% 2%  
97 0.6% 1.1%  
98 0.4% 0.5%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.1% 99.8%  
77 1.3% 99.7%  
78 0.7% 98%  
79 0.7% 98%  
80 2% 97%  
81 2% 95%  
82 3% 92%  
83 6% 89%  
84 7% 84%  
85 7% 77% Majority
86 13% 70% Median
87 13% 57%  
88 12% 44% Last Result
89 9% 31%  
90 7% 23%  
91 4% 15%  
92 4% 11%  
93 4% 7%  
94 1.3% 3%  
95 0.6% 1.5%  
96 0.6% 0.8%  
97 0.1% 0.3%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.8%  
76 0.4% 99.7%  
77 2% 99.3%  
78 2% 97%  
79 2% 95%  
80 5% 93%  
81 4% 88%  
82 10% 84%  
83 12% 74%  
84 9% 62% Median
85 13% 52% Majority
86 4% 39%  
87 11% 35%  
88 6% 24% Last Result
89 5% 19%  
90 8% 13%  
91 2% 5%  
92 0.9% 3%  
93 0.5% 2%  
94 0.8% 1.2%  
95 0.2% 0.4%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.2% 100%  
72 0.2% 99.8%  
73 0.6% 99.6%  
74 0.7% 99.0%  
75 1.4% 98%  
76 5% 97%  
77 4% 92%  
78 4% 88%  
79 8% 84%  
80 9% 77%  
81 13% 68% Last Result
82 13% 55% Median
83 13% 42%  
84 7% 29%  
85 6% 22% Majority
86 6% 16%  
87 3% 10%  
88 2% 7%  
89 2% 5%  
90 0.7% 3%  
91 0.7% 2%  
92 1.3% 2%  
93 0.1% 0.3%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.2% 99.9%  
71 0.4% 99.8%  
72 0.6% 99.4%  
73 0.6% 98.8%  
74 3% 98%  
75 3% 95%  
76 5% 92%  
77 5% 87%  
78 8% 82%  
79 11% 74%  
80 13% 63% Last Result
81 17% 50% Median
82 7% 33%  
83 7% 26%  
84 6% 19%  
85 5% 14% Majority
86 2% 9%  
87 3% 7%  
88 1.4% 4%  
89 0.6% 3%  
90 0.5% 2%  
91 1.3% 1.5%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.3% 99.9%  
70 0.7% 99.6%  
71 0.6% 98.8%  
72 2% 98%  
73 3% 96%  
74 5% 93%  
75 6% 88%  
76 6% 82%  
77 16% 76% Median
78 14% 60%  
79 9% 46%  
80 10% 37% Last Result
81 4% 27%  
82 7% 23%  
83 4% 15%  
84 5% 12%  
85 5% 7% Majority
86 0.8% 2%  
87 0.4% 1.0%  
88 0.3% 0.6%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.6% 99.8%  
69 2% 99.2%  
70 2% 97%  
71 3% 95%  
72 3% 93%  
73 13% 89%  
74 8% 76%  
75 8% 68% Median
76 12% 60%  
77 11% 48%  
78 6% 37%  
79 8% 31%  
80 7% 23% Last Result
81 7% 16%  
82 4% 9%  
83 2% 5%  
84 1.4% 3%  
85 0.5% 1.3% Majority
86 0.6% 0.8%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 1.3% 99.7%  
68 1.1% 98%  
69 2% 97%  
70 3% 95%  
71 4% 92%  
72 16% 88%  
73 8% 72%  
74 10% 64% Median
75 9% 54%  
76 11% 45%  
77 7% 34%  
78 4% 27%  
79 10% 23% Last Result
80 5% 12%  
81 3% 7%  
82 2% 4%  
83 0.9% 2%  
84 0.5% 1.0%  
85 0.4% 0.5% Majority
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.1% 99.8%  
66 0.4% 99.7%  
67 0.5% 99.3%  
68 2% 98.8%  
69 3% 97%  
70 5% 94%  
71 6% 90%  
72 9% 84% Last Result
73 8% 75%  
74 9% 67%  
75 20% 58% Median
76 20% 39%  
77 5% 19%  
78 5% 14%  
79 3% 9%  
80 2% 6%  
81 0.7% 4%  
82 0.9% 3%  
83 2% 2%  
84 0.2% 0.3%  
85 0% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.2% 99.8%  
66 0.5% 99.6%  
67 1.0% 99.2%  
68 2% 98%  
69 3% 96%  
70 5% 93%  
71 8% 88%  
72 8% 80%  
73 9% 72%  
74 16% 62% Median
75 8% 47%  
76 13% 39%  
77 7% 26% Last Result
78 5% 19%  
79 8% 13%  
80 2% 5%  
81 0.9% 3%  
82 0.9% 2%  
83 0.8% 2%  
84 0.5% 0.7%  
85 0.1% 0.2% Majority
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.3% 99.8%  
65 0.5% 99.5%  
66 2% 99.0%  
67 2% 97%  
68 3% 96%  
69 6% 92%  
70 10% 86%  
71 5% 76%  
72 14% 71%  
73 15% 56% Median
74 9% 42%  
75 9% 32%  
76 6% 23% Last Result
77 8% 17%  
78 5% 9%  
79 1.5% 4%  
80 0.5% 3%  
81 1.1% 2%  
82 0.6% 1.0%  
83 0.3% 0.3%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.2% 100%  
57 0.3% 99.7%  
58 2% 99.4%  
59 2% 98%  
60 3% 96%  
61 5% 92%  
62 12% 88%  
63 16% 76%  
64 8% 60% Median
65 14% 52%  
66 8% 38%  
67 11% 30%  
68 7% 19% Last Result
69 5% 12%  
70 3% 7%  
71 2% 4%  
72 1.4% 2%  
73 0.4% 1.1%  
74 0.4% 0.7%  
75 0.2% 0.3%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 0.5% 99.7%  
54 0.8% 99.2%  
55 3% 98%  
56 5% 96%  
57 2% 91%  
58 4% 88%  
59 9% 84%  
60 9% 75%  
61 19% 66%  
62 11% 47% Last Result, Median
63 10% 37%  
64 8% 27%  
65 8% 19%  
66 4% 11%  
67 1.5% 7%  
68 2% 6%  
69 0.9% 4%  
70 0.5% 3%  
71 0.4% 2%  
72 2% 2%  
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.2% 99.8%  
50 1.2% 99.6%  
51 0.3% 98%  
52 0.6% 98%  
53 2% 97%  
54 2% 95%  
55 4% 93%  
56 5% 90%  
57 6% 85%  
58 8% 79%  
59 14% 71% Median
60 14% 57%  
61 12% 43% Last Result
62 6% 31%  
63 7% 24%  
64 2% 17%  
65 5% 15%  
66 3% 10%  
67 4% 7%  
68 1.1% 3%  
69 0.7% 1.4%  
70 0.6% 0.7%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.3% 99.8%  
48 1.0% 99.5%  
49 2% 98.6%  
50 4% 97%  
51 5% 92%  
52 16% 88%  
53 8% 72%  
54 11% 64% Median
55 12% 53%  
56 8% 41%  
57 12% 33%  
58 11% 21%  
59 4% 10%  
60 2% 6% Last Result
61 2% 5%  
62 2% 3%  
63 0.3% 0.4%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.2% 99.9%  
24 0.2% 99.7%  
25 3% 99.5%  
26 0.7% 96%  
27 3% 95%  
28 3% 92%  
29 3% 89%  
30 11% 86%  
31 10% 75% Median
32 14% 65%  
33 11% 51%  
34 12% 39%  
35 8% 27% Last Result
36 6% 20%  
37 5% 14%  
38 4% 9%  
39 3% 5%  
40 0.7% 2%  
41 0.4% 1.4%  
42 0.8% 1.1%  
43 0.2% 0.3%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations