Opinion Poll by Opinion Perduco, 4–10 October 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 26.6% 24.5–28.9% 23.9–29.5% 23.4–30.1% 22.5–31.2%
Høyre 25.0% 25.0% 23.0–27.2% 22.4–27.8% 21.9–28.4% 20.9–29.5%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 12.9% 11.4–14.7% 11.0–15.2% 10.6–15.7% 9.9–16.6%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 12.6% 11.1–14.4% 10.7–14.9% 10.3–15.4% 9.7–16.2%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 5.9% 4.9–7.2% 4.6–7.6% 4.3–7.9% 3.9–8.6%
Rødt 2.4% 5.1% 4.2–6.4% 3.9–6.8% 3.7–7.1% 3.3–7.7%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 5.0% 4.1–6.2% 3.8–6.6% 3.6–6.9% 3.2–7.6%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.2% 2.5–4.3% 2.3–4.6% 2.1–4.9% 1.8–5.4%
Venstre 4.4% 2.6% 2.0–3.6% 1.8–3.9% 1.7–4.1% 1.4–4.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 44 43–54 42–55 41–55 40–57
Høyre 45 46 40–49 40–50 38–50 36–53
Fremskrittspartiet 27 22 20–25 19–26 19–28 17–29
Senterpartiet 19 22 21–25 20–26 19–26 17–28
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 10 9–12 8–13 7–13 2–15
Rødt 1 11 8–12 2–12 2–14 2–14
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 9 8–11 3–11 2–12 2–13
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 2 1–7 1–7 1–8 0–9
Venstre 8 2 1–2 1–2 0–7 0–8

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.4% 99.8%  
41 3% 99.4%  
42 4% 96%  
43 7% 92%  
44 41% 85% Median
45 1.4% 44%  
46 4% 43%  
47 6% 39%  
48 2% 33%  
49 3% 31% Last Result
50 1.3% 28%  
51 0.8% 27%  
52 4% 26%  
53 3% 21%  
54 12% 19%  
55 6% 6%  
56 0.1% 0.6%  
57 0.4% 0.5%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.3% 99.9%  
36 0.6% 99.6%  
37 0.7% 98.9%  
38 3% 98%  
39 0.6% 96%  
40 14% 95%  
41 3% 81%  
42 10% 78%  
43 5% 68%  
44 6% 63%  
45 4% 57% Last Result
46 7% 53% Median
47 35% 46%  
48 1.1% 11%  
49 4% 10%  
50 4% 6%  
51 0.3% 2%  
52 1.1% 2%  
53 0.5% 0.7%  
54 0.2% 0.2%  
55 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.2% 100%  
16 0.1% 99.7%  
17 1.1% 99.7%  
18 0.6% 98.6%  
19 4% 98%  
20 15% 94%  
21 7% 79%  
22 43% 71% Median
23 7% 29%  
24 11% 21%  
25 3% 10%  
26 2% 7%  
27 2% 5% Last Result
28 2% 3%  
29 0.7% 0.9%  
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.3% 99.9%  
17 0.9% 99.6%  
18 0.6% 98.7%  
19 0.8% 98% Last Result
20 6% 97%  
21 7% 91%  
22 46% 84% Median
23 22% 39%  
24 6% 17%  
25 4% 10%  
26 5% 6%  
27 1.0% 2%  
28 0.4% 0.6%  
29 0.1% 0.3%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 2% 99.9%  
3 0.2% 98%  
4 0% 98%  
5 0% 98%  
6 0% 98%  
7 0.8% 98%  
8 6% 97%  
9 26% 92%  
10 39% 66% Median
11 10% 27% Last Result
12 8% 17%  
13 6% 8%  
14 1.1% 2%  
15 0.5% 0.9%  
16 0.2% 0.4%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 9% 100%  
3 0% 91%  
4 0% 91%  
5 0% 91%  
6 0% 91%  
7 0.6% 91%  
8 20% 91%  
9 10% 71%  
10 3% 61%  
11 47% 58% Median
12 7% 12%  
13 1.4% 4%  
14 3% 3%  
15 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.3% 100%  
2 2% 99.7%  
3 4% 97%  
4 0% 94%  
5 0% 94%  
6 0% 94%  
7 2% 94%  
8 16% 92% Last Result
9 43% 76% Median
10 8% 33%  
11 21% 25%  
12 2% 4%  
13 1.0% 1.2%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 26% 98% Last Result
2 61% 72% Median
3 0.6% 11%  
4 0% 10%  
5 0% 10%  
6 0% 10%  
7 5% 10%  
8 4% 5%  
9 0.4% 0.6%  
10 0.1% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100%  
1 9% 95%  
2 84% 87% Median
3 0% 3%  
4 0% 3%  
5 0% 3%  
6 0% 3%  
7 2% 3%  
8 0.9% 1.1% Last Result
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 102 100% 96–104 94–106 92–108 91–110
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 88 91% 85–99 84–99 84–101 81–104
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 89 96% 87–96 86–98 84–99 81–102
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 87 92% 85–94 82–96 81–97 80–100
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 80 34% 77–88 76–88 74–91 73–95
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 77 28% 75–90 74–90 74–90 71–95
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 75 24% 74–88 73–88 72–88 69–89
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 76 26% 75–86 74–86 72–88 71–92
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre 89 82 8% 75–84 73–87 72–88 69–89
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 80 4% 73–82 71–83 70–85 67–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 66 0% 65–77 65–77 63–77 61–81
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 71 0% 62–74 62–75 61–77 58–80
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 69 0% 60–72 60–72 59–74 56–76
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 54 0% 53–63 52–64 50–65 48–66
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 57 0% 51–59 49–60 47–61 45–66
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 33 0% 32–36 30–37 28–38 24–41

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 99.9%  
88 0.1% 99.9%  
89 0% 99.8%  
90 0.1% 99.8%  
91 1.2% 99.6%  
92 1.4% 98%  
93 1.4% 97%  
94 1.3% 96%  
95 2% 94%  
96 17% 92%  
97 5% 75%  
98 4% 70%  
99 3% 65%  
100 2% 63%  
101 5% 61% Median
102 38% 56%  
103 2% 18%  
104 7% 16%  
105 2% 9%  
106 3% 7%  
107 0.8% 4% Last Result
108 2% 3%  
109 0.9% 2%  
110 0.6% 0.8%  
111 0.1% 0.2%  
112 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.4% 100%  
81 0.3% 99.5%  
82 0.5% 99.3%  
83 0.4% 98.8%  
84 7% 98%  
85 3% 91% Majority
86 2% 88%  
87 36% 86% Median
88 4% 51% Last Result
89 5% 47%  
90 4% 42%  
91 4% 38%  
92 1.4% 34%  
93 2% 33%  
94 0.9% 31%  
95 2% 30%  
96 5% 28%  
97 3% 22%  
98 1.3% 19%  
99 15% 18%  
100 0.4% 3%  
101 2% 3%  
102 0.3% 1.1%  
103 0.1% 0.8%  
104 0.3% 0.7%  
105 0.4% 0.4%  
106 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.1% 100%  
81 0.7% 99.9% Last Result
82 0.4% 99.2%  
83 1.0% 98.8%  
84 2% 98%  
85 0.3% 96% Majority
86 4% 95%  
87 4% 92%  
88 4% 87%  
89 34% 84% Median
90 6% 50%  
91 4% 44%  
92 4% 40%  
93 5% 36%  
94 6% 31%  
95 2% 24%  
96 15% 22%  
97 2% 8%  
98 2% 6%  
99 1.4% 4%  
100 0.8% 2%  
101 0.6% 1.5%  
102 0.5% 0.9%  
103 0.2% 0.3%  
104 0.1% 0.1%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 99.9%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0% 99.9%  
79 0.2% 99.8%  
80 0.9% 99.7% Last Result
81 2% 98.7%  
82 3% 97%  
83 1.0% 94%  
84 0.9% 93%  
85 3% 92% Majority
86 9% 89%  
87 35% 80% Median
88 5% 45%  
89 5% 40%  
90 4% 35%  
91 1.4% 31%  
92 7% 30%  
93 1.3% 23%  
94 14% 22%  
95 2% 8%  
96 2% 6%  
97 2% 5%  
98 1.3% 2%  
99 0.5% 1.0%  
100 0.4% 0.5%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 2% 99.8%  
74 0.4% 98%  
75 2% 97%  
76 5% 96%  
77 3% 91%  
78 36% 88% Median
79 1.2% 52%  
80 6% 51% Last Result
81 3% 45%  
82 0.5% 43%  
83 6% 42%  
84 2% 36%  
85 5% 34% Majority
86 5% 28%  
87 3% 23%  
88 16% 20%  
89 0.7% 5%  
90 0.9% 4%  
91 0.7% 3%  
92 0.3% 2%  
93 1.2% 2%  
94 0.4% 0.9%  
95 0.5% 0.5%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.5% 99.9%  
72 0.7% 99.3%  
73 0.3% 98.6%  
74 5% 98%  
75 9% 94%  
76 2% 85%  
77 36% 83% Last Result, Median
78 2% 47%  
79 2% 45%  
80 4% 43%  
81 2% 39%  
82 6% 37%  
83 0.8% 31%  
84 3% 31%  
85 2% 28% Majority
86 1.4% 26%  
87 5% 24%  
88 4% 20%  
89 2% 16%  
90 13% 14%  
91 0.4% 2%  
92 0.4% 1.2%  
93 0% 0.8%  
94 0.1% 0.8%  
95 0.6% 0.6%  
96 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0% 99.9%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0% 99.8%  
67 0.1% 99.8%  
68 0.2% 99.7%  
69 0.1% 99.5%  
70 1.2% 99.4%  
71 0.1% 98%  
72 1.4% 98%  
73 5% 97%  
74 13% 92%  
75 34% 79% Median
76 5% 44% Last Result
77 2% 39%  
78 5% 37%  
79 0.8% 33%  
80 2% 32%  
81 0.8% 30%  
82 1.2% 29%  
83 2% 28%  
84 1.4% 26%  
85 1.5% 24% Majority
86 7% 23%  
87 2% 16%  
88 12% 13%  
89 1.1% 1.5%  
90 0.3% 0.4%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.1% 99.8%  
71 2% 99.7%  
72 1.1% 98%  
73 0.6% 97%  
74 2% 96%  
75 8% 95%  
76 37% 87% Median
77 3% 49%  
78 6% 46%  
79 3% 40% Last Result
80 2% 37%  
81 0.8% 35%  
82 1.3% 34%  
83 2% 33%  
84 5% 30%  
85 5% 26% Majority
86 16% 20%  
87 1.2% 4%  
88 0.8% 3%  
89 0.4% 2%  
90 0.2% 2%  
91 0.4% 1.4%  
92 0.9% 1.0%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 99.9%  
68 0% 99.9%  
69 0.4% 99.9%  
70 0.5% 99.5%  
71 1.3% 99.0%  
72 2% 98%  
73 2% 95%  
74 2% 94%  
75 14% 92%  
76 1.3% 78%  
77 7% 77%  
78 1.4% 70%  
79 4% 69%  
80 5% 65%  
81 5% 60% Median
82 35% 55%  
83 9% 20%  
84 3% 11%  
85 0.9% 8% Majority
86 1.0% 7%  
87 3% 6%  
88 2% 3%  
89 0.9% 1.3% Last Result
90 0.2% 0.3%  
91 0% 0.2%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.2% 99.9%  
67 0.5% 99.7%  
68 0.6% 99.1%  
69 0.8% 98.5%  
70 1.4% 98%  
71 2% 96%  
72 2% 94%  
73 15% 92%  
74 2% 78%  
75 6% 76%  
76 5% 69%  
77 4% 64%  
78 4% 60%  
79 6% 56% Median
80 34% 50%  
81 4% 16%  
82 4% 13%  
83 4% 8%  
84 0.3% 5%  
85 2% 4% Majority
86 1.0% 2%  
87 0.4% 1.2%  
88 0.7% 0.8% Last Result
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.3% 99.9%  
61 0.3% 99.6%  
62 0.9% 99.3%  
63 1.2% 98%  
64 0.4% 97%  
65 11% 97%  
66 41% 86% Median
67 2% 45%  
68 2% 43% Last Result
69 3% 40%  
70 2% 37%  
71 2% 36%  
72 4% 34%  
73 3% 30%  
74 2% 28%  
75 8% 25%  
76 2% 17%  
77 14% 16%  
78 0.2% 2%  
79 0.4% 2%  
80 0.1% 1.5%  
81 0.9% 1.3%  
82 0.4% 0.5%  
83 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.3% 99.9%  
58 0.3% 99.7%  
59 0.9% 99.3%  
60 0.6% 98%  
61 1.2% 98%  
62 12% 97%  
63 3% 85%  
64 2% 82%  
65 6% 80%  
66 3% 74%  
67 5% 71%  
68 7% 67%  
69 2% 60%  
70 6% 57% Median
71 34% 51%  
72 3% 17%  
73 1.2% 14%  
74 7% 13%  
75 2% 6%  
76 0.4% 4%  
77 2% 3%  
78 0.7% 1.4%  
79 0.1% 0.6%  
80 0.1% 0.5% Last Result
81 0.4% 0.4%  
82 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.3% 99.9%  
56 0.2% 99.7%  
57 0.6% 99.5%  
58 1.0% 98.9%  
59 1.1% 98%  
60 12% 97%  
61 1.4% 85%  
62 3% 84%  
63 6% 81%  
64 3% 75%  
65 4% 71%  
66 9% 68%  
67 1.1% 59%  
68 5% 58% Median
69 34% 53%  
70 4% 19%  
71 3% 15%  
72 7% 12% Last Result
73 2% 5%  
74 0.8% 3%  
75 0.6% 2%  
76 1.0% 1.2%  
77 0% 0.2%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.3% 100%  
48 1.1% 99.6%  
49 0.3% 98%  
50 0.9% 98%  
51 1.2% 97%  
52 2% 96%  
53 11% 95%  
54 35% 84% Median
55 5% 48%  
56 4% 44%  
57 4% 40%  
58 1.5% 36%  
59 4% 34%  
60 2% 30% Last Result
61 3% 29%  
62 2% 26%  
63 16% 24%  
64 4% 8%  
65 2% 4%  
66 1.2% 2%  
67 0.2% 0.4%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 0.1% 99.8%  
45 0.8% 99.8%  
46 0.2% 99.0%  
47 2% 98.8%  
48 1.1% 97%  
49 2% 95%  
50 3% 94%  
51 3% 91%  
52 3% 88%  
53 13% 85%  
54 7% 71%  
55 9% 65%  
56 5% 56%  
57 4% 51% Median
58 35% 47%  
59 3% 12%  
60 6% 9%  
61 1.0% 3% Last Result
62 0.7% 2%  
63 0.5% 1.4%  
64 0.3% 0.8%  
65 0.1% 0.6%  
66 0.4% 0.5%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.3% 99.8%  
24 0.1% 99.5%  
25 0.1% 99.4%  
26 0.2% 99.3%  
27 0.9% 99.1%  
28 1.2% 98%  
29 0.3% 97%  
30 2% 97%  
31 4% 95%  
32 13% 91%  
33 47% 78% Median
34 4% 31%  
35 5% 27% Last Result
36 18% 23%  
37 2% 5%  
38 2% 3%  
39 0.3% 1.0%  
40 0.1% 0.7%  
41 0.4% 0.6%  
42 0.1% 0.2%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations