Opinion Poll by Sentio, 9–18 October 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 28.7% 26.6–31.0% 26.0–31.6% 25.5–32.2% 24.5–33.3%
Høyre 25.0% 25.6% 23.6–27.8% 23.0–28.4% 22.5–29.0% 21.6–30.0%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 12.7% 11.2–14.4% 10.8–14.9% 10.4–15.3% 9.7–16.2%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 10.5% 9.2–12.2% 8.8–12.6% 8.5–13.0% 7.8–13.8%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 6.5% 5.5–7.9% 5.2–8.3% 4.9–8.6% 4.5–9.3%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.6% 3.7–5.7% 3.4–6.1% 3.2–6.4% 2.9–7.0%
Rødt 2.4% 3.6% 2.8–4.6% 2.6–4.9% 2.4–5.2% 2.1–5.8%
Venstre 4.4% 2.8% 2.2–3.8% 2.0–4.1% 1.8–4.4% 1.6–4.9%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 2.4% 1.8–3.3% 1.6–3.6% 1.5–3.8% 1.3–4.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 52 48–57 47–59 46–59 45–62
Høyre 45 47 42–51 41–52 41–53 40–55
Fremskrittspartiet 27 23 20–27 19–27 18–28 17–30
Senterpartiet 19 19 17–22 16–23 15–23 15–25
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 12 10–14 10–16 9–16 8–16
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 9 2–10 2–10 2–11 1–13
Rødt 1 2 1–8 1–10 1–10 1–10
Venstre 8 2 1–2 1–2 1–7 0–9
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 1 0–2 0–2 0–3 0–7

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 0.3% 99.8%  
45 1.0% 99.5%  
46 1.2% 98%  
47 4% 97%  
48 7% 93%  
49 12% 87% Last Result
50 16% 75%  
51 5% 59%  
52 15% 54% Median
53 4% 39%  
54 4% 35%  
55 9% 31%  
56 12% 23%  
57 0.6% 10%  
58 2% 10%  
59 6% 8%  
60 2% 2%  
61 0.2% 0.8%  
62 0.4% 0.6%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 0.2% 99.7%  
40 2% 99.5%  
41 4% 98%  
42 7% 94%  
43 7% 87%  
44 5% 80%  
45 8% 75% Last Result
46 7% 67%  
47 20% 60% Median
48 5% 40%  
49 4% 36%  
50 14% 31%  
51 11% 17%  
52 3% 6%  
53 1.2% 3%  
54 0.2% 1.5%  
55 1.1% 1.3%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0% 100%  
17 0.6% 99.9%  
18 2% 99.4%  
19 2% 97%  
20 6% 95%  
21 17% 89%  
22 19% 72%  
23 5% 53% Median
24 6% 48%  
25 27% 42%  
26 1.4% 15%  
27 10% 14% Last Result
28 3% 4%  
29 0.6% 1.2%  
30 0.5% 0.6%  
31 0.2% 0.2%  
32 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100%  
13 0.1% 99.9%  
14 0.3% 99.8%  
15 3% 99.5%  
16 3% 97%  
17 14% 93%  
18 15% 80%  
19 29% 65% Last Result, Median
20 9% 36%  
21 5% 27%  
22 13% 22%  
23 7% 9%  
24 0.7% 2%  
25 1.1% 1.4%  
26 0.1% 0.3%  
27 0.2% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100%  
8 1.1% 99.9%  
9 3% 98.8%  
10 13% 96%  
11 12% 83% Last Result
12 25% 71% Median
13 18% 45%  
14 18% 27%  
15 2% 9%  
16 7% 7%  
17 0.2% 0.5%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 1.2% 100%  
2 14% 98.8%  
3 2% 85%  
4 0% 83%  
5 0% 83%  
6 0% 83%  
7 0.7% 83%  
8 29% 82% Last Result
9 31% 53% Median
10 18% 22%  
11 2% 4%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0.6% 0.6%  
14 0% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 11% 100% Last Result
2 56% 89% Median
3 0% 33%  
4 0% 33%  
5 0% 33%  
6 0% 33%  
7 12% 33%  
8 14% 21%  
9 2% 7%  
10 5% 5%  
11 0.2% 0.5%  
12 0.2% 0.3%  
13 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 33% 98%  
2 62% 65% Median
3 0.4% 4%  
4 0.1% 3%  
5 0% 3%  
6 0% 3%  
7 2% 3%  
8 0.9% 1.5% Last Result
9 0.4% 0.5%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 19% 100%  
1 56% 81% Last Result, Median
2 21% 25%  
3 3% 4%  
4 0% 0.8%  
5 0% 0.8%  
6 0% 0.8%  
7 0.4% 0.8%  
8 0.3% 0.4%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 99 100% 93–106 92–106 91–106 89–108
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 93 98% 88–99 88–101 86–101 83–102
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 89 81% 82–94 82–95 81–97 78–101
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 88 74% 81–93 81–94 80–96 77–100
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 85 51% 80–91 79–92 78–93 76–95
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 83 45% 79–91 78–91 76–92 75–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 79 21% 75–87 74–89 74–89 71–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 78 12% 74–86 74–88 73–88 70–90
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 81 25% 76–88 75–88 73–88 68–91
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 80 18% 75–87 74–87 72–87 68–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 71 0% 66–78 66–78 65–79 62–82
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 72 0% 66–78 66–78 65–78 63–81
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 70 0% 64–76 64–77 63–77 61–79
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 64 0% 60–71 60–72 58–73 56–74
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 56 0% 51–62 50–62 49–64 46–66
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 29 0% 23–33 23–35 21–35 20–38

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 99.9%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.2% 99.8%  
89 0.5% 99.6%  
90 1.1% 99.1%  
91 1.2% 98%  
92 3% 97%  
93 5% 94%  
94 6% 89%  
95 6% 84%  
96 5% 78%  
97 3% 73%  
98 15% 70%  
99 12% 55%  
100 14% 43% Median
101 2% 29%  
102 1.0% 27%  
103 0.6% 26%  
104 9% 26%  
105 7% 17%  
106 8% 10%  
107 1.1% 2% Last Result
108 0.5% 0.9%  
109 0.1% 0.4%  
110 0.2% 0.3%  
111 0.1% 0.1%  
112 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.1% 100%  
81 0.1% 99.8%  
82 0.2% 99.7%  
83 0.2% 99.5%  
84 0.9% 99.3%  
85 0.2% 98% Majority
86 3% 98%  
87 0.6% 96%  
88 9% 95% Last Result
89 16% 86%  
90 10% 70%  
91 2% 61%  
92 7% 59%  
93 6% 52% Median
94 9% 46%  
95 4% 37%  
96 14% 33%  
97 3% 19%  
98 6% 16%  
99 4% 10%  
100 1.1% 6%  
101 5% 5%  
102 0.3% 0.6%  
103 0.2% 0.3%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.6% 99.8%  
79 1.1% 99.2%  
80 0.3% 98%  
81 1.0% 98% Last Result
82 8% 97%  
83 7% 89%  
84 0.6% 81%  
85 4% 81% Majority
86 4% 77% Median
87 3% 72%  
88 8% 69%  
89 18% 61%  
90 3% 42%  
91 9% 39%  
92 2% 30%  
93 14% 29%  
94 8% 15%  
95 3% 7%  
96 0.6% 4%  
97 1.2% 3%  
98 0.7% 2%  
99 0.5% 1.1%  
100 0.1% 0.6%  
101 0.5% 0.5%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.5% 99.8%  
78 1.4% 99.4%  
79 0.2% 98%  
80 1.0% 98% Last Result
81 8% 97%  
82 7% 89%  
83 2% 81%  
84 6% 80%  
85 2% 74% Median, Majority
86 5% 72%  
87 9% 67%  
88 9% 58%  
89 15% 48%  
90 5% 34%  
91 4% 29%  
92 10% 25%  
93 8% 15%  
94 3% 7%  
95 0.6% 4%  
96 0.8% 3%  
97 1.0% 2%  
98 0.3% 1.1%  
99 0.3% 0.8%  
100 0% 0.5%  
101 0.5% 0.5%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0.2% 99.9%  
75 0.1% 99.8%  
76 0.7% 99.7%  
77 1.1% 99.0%  
78 2% 98%  
79 5% 96%  
80 14% 91% Last Result
81 8% 78%  
82 9% 70%  
83 2% 61%  
84 8% 59% Median
85 3% 51% Majority
86 8% 48%  
87 9% 40%  
88 2% 31%  
89 9% 29%  
90 0.8% 20%  
91 9% 19%  
92 5% 10%  
93 4% 5%  
94 0.4% 1.0%  
95 0.4% 0.6%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.2% 99.8%  
75 1.2% 99.6%  
76 1.1% 98%  
77 1.3% 97%  
78 5% 96%  
79 10% 91% Last Result
80 12% 81%  
81 2% 69%  
82 11% 68%  
83 8% 56% Median
84 3% 48%  
85 14% 45% Majority
86 0.3% 31%  
87 7% 30%  
88 1.3% 23%  
89 3% 22%  
90 8% 19%  
91 6% 11%  
92 3% 4%  
93 0.9% 1.4%  
94 0.1% 0.6%  
95 0.4% 0.4%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 99.9%  
70 0.3% 99.9%  
71 0.2% 99.6%  
72 0.6% 99.3%  
73 1.1% 98.7%  
74 5% 98%  
75 3% 93%  
76 5% 90%  
77 13% 85% Last Result
78 6% 72%  
79 16% 65%  
80 2% 49%  
81 7% 47% Median
82 10% 40%  
83 5% 30%  
84 4% 25%  
85 9% 21% Majority
86 1.3% 12%  
87 2% 11%  
88 3% 9%  
89 5% 6%  
90 0.2% 0.8%  
91 0.4% 0.6%  
92 0% 0.2%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.2% 99.8%  
70 0.6% 99.6%  
71 0.3% 98.9%  
72 0.9% 98.7%  
73 2% 98%  
74 6% 96%  
75 5% 90%  
76 8% 85% Last Result
77 14% 76%  
78 14% 63%  
79 1.4% 49%  
80 14% 48% Median
81 7% 33%  
82 5% 27%  
83 10% 22%  
84 1.1% 13%  
85 1.2% 12% Majority
86 1.3% 10%  
87 1.1% 9%  
88 7% 8%  
89 0.1% 0.7%  
90 0.2% 0.5%  
91 0.2% 0.3%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.5% 99.9%  
69 0% 99.5%  
70 0.5% 99.4%  
71 0.3% 99.0%  
72 1.0% 98.7%  
73 0.9% 98%  
74 0.6% 97%  
75 3% 96%  
76 9% 93%  
77 10% 84%  
78 4% 74%  
79 5% 70%  
80 15% 65%  
81 9% 51%  
82 9% 41% Median
83 6% 33%  
84 2% 27%  
85 6% 25% Majority
86 2% 19%  
87 7% 17%  
88 8% 10%  
89 0.9% 2% Last Result
90 0.2% 1.1%  
91 0.8% 1.0%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 99.9%  
68 0.5% 99.9%  
69 0.3% 99.4%  
70 0.5% 99.1%  
71 0.7% 98.6%  
72 1.3% 98%  
73 0.6% 97%  
74 4% 96%  
75 8% 92%  
76 14% 84%  
77 1.5% 71%  
78 9% 69%  
79 3% 60%  
80 18% 57%  
81 8% 38% Median
82 4% 30%  
83 5% 26%  
84 4% 22%  
85 0.5% 18% Majority
86 7% 17%  
87 8% 10%  
88 1.0% 2% Last Result
89 0.3% 1.0%  
90 0.4% 0.7%  
91 0.2% 0.3%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.6% 99.9%  
63 0.3% 99.3%  
64 1.2% 99.0%  
65 1.1% 98%  
66 11% 97%  
67 1.1% 86%  
68 8% 85% Last Result
69 17% 77%  
70 3% 60%  
71 11% 57% Median
72 8% 47%  
73 6% 38%  
74 6% 33%  
75 8% 27%  
76 5% 19%  
77 0.7% 14%  
78 11% 14%  
79 1.2% 3%  
80 0.2% 2%  
81 0.9% 1.4%  
82 0.3% 0.5%  
83 0.2% 0.2%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0% 99.9%  
62 0.2% 99.8%  
63 0.5% 99.7%  
64 0.3% 99.2%  
65 3% 98.9%  
66 9% 96%  
67 3% 88%  
68 5% 85%  
69 7% 80%  
70 3% 73%  
71 15% 69%  
72 11% 55% Median
73 11% 44%  
74 6% 32%  
75 5% 26%  
76 3% 22%  
77 1.2% 18%  
78 15% 17%  
79 1.2% 2%  
80 0.3% 1.3% Last Result
81 0.8% 1.1%  
82 0.1% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.8%  
60 0.2% 99.8%  
61 0.2% 99.6%  
62 0.8% 99.4%  
63 3% 98.6%  
64 9% 96%  
65 2% 87%  
66 6% 85%  
67 2% 79%  
68 9% 77%  
69 7% 69%  
70 19% 62% Median
71 8% 43%  
72 9% 35% Last Result
73 4% 26%  
74 2% 22%  
75 4% 20%  
76 8% 17%  
77 6% 8%  
78 0.9% 2%  
79 0.6% 0.8%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0% 99.9%  
55 0.2% 99.9%  
56 0.4% 99.7%  
57 0.9% 99.3%  
58 0.9% 98%  
59 1.3% 97%  
60 16% 96% Last Result
61 4% 80%  
62 15% 76%  
63 8% 61%  
64 6% 53% Median
65 9% 46%  
66 7% 37%  
67 6% 30%  
68 5% 24%  
69 2% 19%  
70 6% 17%  
71 2% 12%  
72 5% 9%  
73 3% 4%  
74 0.2% 0.7%  
75 0.1% 0.5%  
76 0.3% 0.4%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.2% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.8%  
46 0.6% 99.7%  
47 0.6% 99.1%  
48 0.6% 98.5%  
49 0.6% 98%  
50 6% 97%  
51 2% 91%  
52 6% 89%  
53 5% 84%  
54 7% 79%  
55 13% 72%  
56 10% 59%  
57 7% 49%  
58 7% 41% Median
59 7% 34%  
60 10% 27%  
61 4% 17% Last Result
62 10% 13%  
63 0.6% 3%  
64 0.6% 3%  
65 1.1% 2%  
66 0.6% 0.9%  
67 0% 0.3%  
68 0.2% 0.3%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0% 99.8%  
20 0.5% 99.8%  
21 4% 99.3%  
22 0.2% 96%  
23 6% 96%  
24 1.2% 89%  
25 2% 88%  
26 9% 86%  
27 8% 77%  
28 6% 68%  
29 15% 63%  
30 19% 48% Median
31 9% 29%  
32 8% 20%  
33 4% 13%  
34 2% 9%  
35 6% 7% Last Result
36 0.4% 2%  
37 0.8% 1.4%  
38 0.3% 0.5%  
39 0.2% 0.2%  
40 0% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations