Opinion Poll by Norstat, 16–22 October 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 28.7% 26.9–30.6% 26.3–31.2% 25.9–31.7% 25.0–32.6%
Høyre 25.0% 25.4% 23.6–27.3% 23.1–27.8% 22.7–28.3% 21.9–29.2%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 13.6% 12.3–15.1% 11.9–15.6% 11.6–16.0% 10.9–16.7%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 10.3% 9.1–11.7% 8.8–12.1% 8.5–12.4% 8.0–13.1%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.2% 6.2–8.4% 6.0–8.8% 5.7–9.1% 5.3–9.7%
Rødt 2.4% 3.9% 3.2–4.9% 3.0–5.1% 2.9–5.4% 2.6–5.9%
Venstre 4.4% 3.7% 3.0–4.6% 2.9–4.9% 2.7–5.1% 2.4–5.6%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.6% 2.9–4.5% 2.7–4.8% 2.6–5.0% 2.3–5.5%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–3.0% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 52 48–57 47–58 46–58 45–60
Høyre 45 46 42–49 41–51 41–52 39–53
Fremskrittspartiet 27 25 22–28 21–29 20–30 19–31
Senterpartiet 19 18 16–21 16–22 15–23 14–24
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 14 11–16 10–16 10–17 9–17
Rødt 1 2 2–9 2–9 1–10 1–11
Venstre 8 2 2–8 2–9 2–9 2–10
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 1–8 1–8 1–9 0–10
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–2 0–2

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.3% 99.9%  
45 2% 99.6%  
46 1.1% 98%  
47 3% 97%  
48 7% 94%  
49 9% 87% Last Result
50 9% 78%  
51 12% 69%  
52 12% 57% Median
53 11% 46%  
54 6% 35%  
55 8% 29%  
56 9% 21%  
57 7% 12%  
58 3% 5%  
59 0.9% 2%  
60 0.8% 1.1%  
61 0.2% 0.4%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 0.4% 99.7%  
40 1.4% 99.3%  
41 4% 98%  
42 4% 93%  
43 7% 89%  
44 10% 82%  
45 13% 72% Last Result
46 11% 59% Median
47 16% 48%  
48 10% 32%  
49 12% 22%  
50 3% 10%  
51 2% 7%  
52 2% 5%  
53 2% 2%  
54 0.3% 0.5%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.5% 99.9%  
20 2% 99.4%  
21 5% 97%  
22 9% 93%  
23 7% 84%  
24 20% 77%  
25 22% 56% Median
26 14% 35%  
27 7% 21% Last Result
28 8% 14%  
29 3% 6%  
30 2% 3%  
31 0.7% 0.8%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 0.7% 99.8%  
15 2% 99.1%  
16 12% 97%  
17 19% 85%  
18 19% 66% Median
19 16% 47% Last Result
20 13% 31%  
21 11% 18%  
22 4% 7%  
23 2% 3%  
24 0.5% 0.9%  
25 0.3% 0.4%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.6% 100%  
10 6% 99.4%  
11 7% 93% Last Result
12 23% 86%  
13 6% 63%  
14 30% 57% Median
15 17% 27%  
16 6% 10%  
17 4% 4%  
18 0.1% 0.3%  
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 4% 100% Last Result
2 47% 96% Median
3 0% 49%  
4 0% 49%  
5 0% 49%  
6 0% 49%  
7 10% 49%  
8 26% 39%  
9 9% 13%  
10 3% 4%  
11 0.5% 0.5%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.5% 100%  
2 61% 99.5% Median
3 5% 38%  
4 0.1% 34%  
5 0% 34%  
6 0% 34%  
7 9% 34%  
8 18% 25% Last Result
9 5% 7%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.4% 0.4%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.5% 100%  
1 17% 99.5%  
2 13% 83%  
3 39% 70% Median
4 0% 30%  
5 0% 30%  
6 0% 30%  
7 6% 30%  
8 20% 25% Last Result
9 3% 4%  
10 0.7% 0.8%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 37% 100%  
1 60% 63% Last Result, Median
2 3% 3%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 98 100% 92–103 92–104 90–106 88–107
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 90 91% 85–95 83–96 82–98 80–100
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 89 88% 84–94 83–95 81–97 79–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 89 88% 84–94 82–95 82–96 79–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 85 56% 80–89 78–92 77–93 76–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 84 48% 79–89 78–91 76–92 75–95
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 80 12% 75–85 74–86 72–88 70–90
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 79 9% 74–84 73–86 71–87 69–89
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 75 0.6% 71–80 69–82 68–84 67–85
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 75 0.4% 70–80 69–81 67–83 66–84
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 75 0.9% 71–80 69–81 68–82 65–85
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 62 71 0% 66–77 65–77 63–79 62–81
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 71 0% 66–75 65–76 64–78 62–80
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 71 0% 65–75 65–77 64–78 62–80
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 66 0% 61–71 60–71 59–72 57–75
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 54 0% 49–59 48–61 46–62 45–64
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 27 0% 22–32 21–33 20–34 19–37

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0.1% 100%  
88 0.4% 99.8%  
89 1.3% 99.5%  
90 1.1% 98%  
91 2% 97%  
92 7% 95%  
93 4% 88%  
94 5% 84% Median
95 15% 79%  
96 7% 64%  
97 8% 58%  
98 7% 50%  
99 8% 43%  
100 9% 36%  
101 8% 27%  
102 6% 19%  
103 5% 12%  
104 3% 7%  
105 2% 5%  
106 2% 3%  
107 0.5% 0.9% Last Result
108 0.3% 0.4%  
109 0.1% 0.2%  
110 0% 0.1%  
111 0.1% 0.1%  
112 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.1% 100%  
79 0.1% 99.8%  
80 0.7% 99.7%  
81 0.8% 99.0% Last Result
82 2% 98%  
83 2% 96%  
84 3% 95%  
85 4% 91% Majority
86 8% 87%  
87 9% 79% Median
88 8% 71%  
89 10% 63%  
90 6% 52%  
91 12% 46%  
92 7% 34%  
93 7% 27%  
94 5% 20%  
95 9% 15%  
96 3% 7%  
97 1.4% 4%  
98 0.8% 3%  
99 1.1% 2%  
100 0.3% 0.6%  
101 0.3% 0.3%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100%  
78 0.2% 99.9%  
79 0.5% 99.7%  
80 0.6% 99.2% Last Result
81 2% 98.6%  
82 2% 97%  
83 3% 95%  
84 3% 92%  
85 5% 88% Majority
86 8% 83% Median
87 10% 75%  
88 9% 65%  
89 9% 57%  
90 12% 48%  
91 5% 36%  
92 10% 31%  
93 5% 21%  
94 7% 16%  
95 5% 10%  
96 1.5% 4%  
97 1.0% 3%  
98 1.0% 2%  
99 0.6% 0.9%  
100 0.3% 0.4%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.6% 99.8%  
80 0.4% 99.2%  
81 0.7% 98.8%  
82 3% 98%  
83 4% 95%  
84 2% 90%  
85 5% 88% Majority
86 9% 83%  
87 12% 75%  
88 6% 63% Last Result, Median
89 12% 57%  
90 11% 45%  
91 6% 33%  
92 11% 27%  
93 5% 17%  
94 4% 12%  
95 4% 8%  
96 3% 4%  
97 0.8% 2%  
98 0.4% 0.8%  
99 0.2% 0.4%  
100 0.1% 0.2%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.3% 99.8%  
76 0.5% 99.5%  
77 2% 99.1%  
78 4% 97%  
79 3% 94%  
80 5% 90% Last Result
81 7% 85%  
82 5% 78%  
83 8% 73%  
84 9% 65%  
85 12% 56% Median, Majority
86 6% 44%  
87 11% 38%  
88 8% 27%  
89 11% 20%  
90 2% 9%  
91 2% 7%  
92 2% 5%  
93 2% 3%  
94 0.3% 1.1%  
95 0.2% 0.8%  
96 0.4% 0.5%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.2% 99.9%  
75 0.3% 99.6%  
76 2% 99.3%  
77 2% 97%  
78 3% 96%  
79 5% 92% Last Result
80 7% 87%  
81 6% 80%  
82 6% 74%  
83 8% 68%  
84 13% 60% Median
85 7% 48% Majority
86 7% 41%  
87 11% 33%  
88 12% 22%  
89 3% 10%  
90 2% 7%  
91 3% 6%  
92 1.4% 3%  
93 0.8% 2%  
94 0.2% 0.8%  
95 0.3% 0.6%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.3% 99.9%  
70 0.6% 99.6%  
71 1.0% 99.1%  
72 1.0% 98%  
73 1.5% 97%  
74 5% 96%  
75 7% 90%  
76 5% 84%  
77 10% 79% Median
78 5% 69%  
79 12% 64%  
80 9% 52%  
81 9% 43%  
82 10% 35%  
83 8% 25%  
84 5% 17%  
85 3% 12% Majority
86 3% 8%  
87 2% 5%  
88 2% 3%  
89 0.6% 1.4% Last Result
90 0.5% 0.8%  
91 0.2% 0.3%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.3% 100%  
69 0.3% 99.7%  
70 1.1% 99.4%  
71 0.8% 98%  
72 1.4% 97%  
73 3% 96%  
74 9% 93%  
75 5% 85%  
76 7% 80% Median
77 7% 73%  
78 12% 66%  
79 6% 54%  
80 10% 48%  
81 8% 37%  
82 9% 29%  
83 8% 21%  
84 4% 13%  
85 3% 9% Majority
86 2% 5%  
87 2% 4%  
88 0.8% 2% Last Result
89 0.7% 1.0%  
90 0.1% 0.3%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.3% 99.8%  
67 0.7% 99.6%  
68 2% 98.8%  
69 2% 97%  
70 3% 95%  
71 7% 92%  
72 6% 85%  
73 8% 78%  
74 8% 70% Median
75 14% 62%  
76 5% 48%  
77 15% 44% Last Result
78 6% 28%  
79 10% 22%  
80 3% 12%  
81 3% 9%  
82 2% 6%  
83 1.1% 4%  
84 2% 3%  
85 0.3% 0.6% Majority
86 0.1% 0.3%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.3% 99.9%  
66 0.4% 99.7%  
67 2% 99.3%  
68 1.2% 97%  
69 3% 96%  
70 5% 93%  
71 7% 89%  
72 9% 82%  
73 8% 73% Median
74 11% 65%  
75 9% 54%  
76 13% 45% Last Result
77 7% 31%  
78 10% 24%  
79 4% 14%  
80 3% 10%  
81 2% 7%  
82 2% 4%  
83 1.0% 3%  
84 1.3% 2%  
85 0.2% 0.4% Majority
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.6% 99.8%  
66 0.4% 99.2%  
67 1.0% 98.8%  
68 1.5% 98%  
69 2% 96%  
70 3% 95%  
71 6% 92%  
72 12% 85%  
73 9% 74% Median
74 11% 65%  
75 14% 54%  
76 7% 41%  
77 8% 34%  
78 6% 26%  
79 6% 20%  
80 6% 14% Last Result
81 3% 7%  
82 2% 4%  
83 0.6% 2%  
84 0.9% 2%  
85 0.5% 0.9% Majority
86 0.3% 0.4%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0% 99.9%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.3% 99.8%  
62 0.5% 99.6% Last Result
63 2% 99.1%  
64 2% 97%  
65 3% 95%  
66 5% 93%  
67 6% 88%  
68 8% 81%  
69 9% 73% Median
70 8% 64%  
71 7% 57%  
72 8% 50%  
73 7% 42%  
74 15% 36%  
75 5% 21%  
76 4% 16%  
77 7% 12%  
78 2% 5%  
79 1.1% 3%  
80 1.3% 2%  
81 0.4% 0.5%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 2% 99.8%  
63 0.5% 98%  
64 2% 98%  
65 2% 96%  
66 8% 94%  
67 6% 86%  
68 5% 80% Last Result
69 6% 75%  
70 16% 68% Median
71 9% 52%  
72 9% 44%  
73 11% 35%  
74 8% 24%  
75 6% 15%  
76 4% 9%  
77 2% 5%  
78 0.9% 3%  
79 1.4% 2%  
80 0.5% 0.8%  
81 0.2% 0.2%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.1% 99.8%  
62 0.3% 99.8%  
63 0.9% 99.4%  
64 2% 98.5%  
65 7% 96%  
66 3% 90%  
67 3% 87%  
68 5% 84%  
69 11% 79%  
70 11% 68%  
71 9% 57% Median
72 12% 49% Last Result
73 16% 36%  
74 5% 20%  
75 7% 16%  
76 3% 9%  
77 2% 6%  
78 2% 4%  
79 2% 2%  
80 0.2% 0.5%  
81 0.2% 0.4%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.2% 99.9%  
57 0.5% 99.7%  
58 0.7% 99.3%  
59 3% 98.6%  
60 3% 96% Last Result
61 6% 92%  
62 6% 86%  
63 8% 80%  
64 11% 72%  
65 11% 61%  
66 10% 51% Median
67 9% 40%  
68 6% 31%  
69 8% 25%  
70 4% 17%  
71 9% 13%  
72 2% 4%  
73 1.4% 2%  
74 0.4% 1.0%  
75 0.5% 0.7%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.2% 99.9%  
45 0.7% 99.8%  
46 2% 99.0%  
47 1.3% 97%  
48 5% 96%  
49 2% 91%  
50 5% 90%  
51 9% 84% Median
52 10% 75%  
53 7% 65%  
54 11% 58%  
55 9% 47%  
56 7% 38%  
57 10% 31%  
58 6% 21%  
59 7% 15%  
60 2% 8%  
61 1.5% 5% Last Result
62 2% 4%  
63 0.7% 2%  
64 1.0% 1.3%  
65 0.2% 0.4%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.2% 99.9%  
19 0.4% 99.8%  
20 3% 99.4%  
21 6% 96%  
22 12% 91%  
23 5% 79% Median
24 7% 74%  
25 4% 67%  
26 9% 63%  
27 13% 54%  
28 8% 41%  
29 9% 33%  
30 8% 24%  
31 4% 17%  
32 6% 12%  
33 2% 6%  
34 2% 4%  
35 1.2% 2% Last Result
36 0.5% 1.1%  
37 0.4% 0.6%  
38 0.2% 0.2%  
39 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations