Opinion Poll by Ipsos MMI, 22–24 October 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 26.3% 24.5–28.2% 24.0–28.7% 23.6–29.2% 22.8–30.1%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 26.0% 24.2–27.9% 23.7–28.4% 23.3–28.9% 22.5–29.8%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 12.4% 11.1–13.8% 10.7–14.3% 10.4–14.6% 9.8–15.3%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 10.3% 9.2–11.7% 8.8–12.1% 8.6–12.5% 8.0–13.2%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.7% 6.7–8.9% 6.4–9.3% 6.2–9.6% 5.7–10.2%
Venstre 4.4% 5.1% 4.3–6.1% 4.0–6.4% 3.8–6.7% 3.5–7.2%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.4% 3.7–5.4% 3.5–5.7% 3.3–5.9% 3.0–6.4%
Rødt 2.4% 4.0% 3.3–5.0% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.5% 2.6–6.0%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 2.2% 1.7–3.0% 1.6–3.2% 1.4–3.4% 1.2–3.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 48 44–52 42–53 41–53 40–54
Arbeiderpartiet 49 47 44–50 43–52 42–53 41–55
Senterpartiet 19 21 19–25 18–26 18–26 17–28
Fremskrittspartiet 27 18 16–21 15–22 15–22 14–24
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 14 11–15 11–16 10–17 10–18
Venstre 8 9 7–11 7–11 2–12 2–13
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 8 3–9 3–10 3–10 1–11
Rødt 1 7 2–8 2–9 2–9 1–10
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 1 0–1 0–2 0–2 0–2

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 0.9% 99.6%  
41 1.3% 98.7%  
42 3% 97%  
43 3% 94%  
44 9% 91%  
45 5% 82% Last Result
46 19% 77%  
47 3% 58%  
48 9% 54% Median
49 18% 45%  
50 11% 27%  
51 5% 16%  
52 4% 11%  
53 5% 7%  
54 1.3% 2%  
55 0.2% 0.4%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 1.0% 99.7%  
42 3% 98.7%  
43 6% 96%  
44 8% 90%  
45 24% 82%  
46 8% 58%  
47 20% 50% Median
48 10% 31%  
49 10% 21% Last Result
50 3% 11%  
51 3% 8%  
52 2% 5%  
53 1.0% 3%  
54 0.7% 2%  
55 1.0% 1.4%  
56 0.2% 0.4%  
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.7% 100%  
18 6% 99.3%  
19 9% 94% Last Result
20 26% 85%  
21 13% 59% Median
22 14% 45%  
23 13% 32%  
24 5% 18%  
25 6% 14%  
26 7% 8%  
27 0.7% 1.3%  
28 0.4% 0.6%  
29 0.2% 0.2%  
30 0% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.3% 99.8%  
14 2% 99.6%  
15 4% 98%  
16 15% 93%  
17 17% 79%  
18 23% 62% Median
19 20% 39%  
20 7% 19%  
21 7% 12%  
22 3% 5%  
23 0.8% 2%  
24 0.7% 0.9%  
25 0.2% 0.2%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.3% 100%  
10 4% 99.7%  
11 9% 96% Last Result
12 17% 87%  
13 19% 70%  
14 27% 51% Median
15 14% 24%  
16 6% 10%  
17 2% 4%  
18 1.2% 2%  
19 0.2% 0.3%  
20 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 3% 100%  
3 1.0% 97%  
4 0% 96%  
5 0% 96%  
6 0% 96%  
7 7% 96%  
8 30% 89% Last Result
9 32% 59% Median
10 17% 28%  
11 7% 10%  
12 2% 3%  
13 0.5% 0.6%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 1.1% 100%  
2 1.3% 98.9%  
3 18% 98%  
4 0% 79%  
5 0% 79%  
6 0% 79%  
7 16% 79%  
8 41% 63% Last Result, Median
9 14% 22%  
10 7% 8%  
11 1.0% 1.3%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 1.5% 100% Last Result
2 45% 98.5%  
3 0% 54%  
4 0% 54%  
5 0% 54%  
6 0% 54%  
7 25% 54% Median
8 21% 29%  
9 6% 8%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.2% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 21% 100%  
1 73% 79% Last Result, Median
2 6% 6%  
3 0.1% 0.2%  
4 0% 0.1%  
5 0% 0.1%  
6 0% 0.1%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 103 100% 99–107 97–109 95–109 93–111
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 89 92% 85–95 83–96 83–97 81–100
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 87 79% 83–93 82–94 81–95 79–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 87 70% 82–92 82–93 80–94 78–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 82 27% 78–88 77–88 75–89 75–92
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 82 30% 77–87 76–87 75–89 72–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 81 21% 77–87 76–87 74–88 74–92
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 82 21% 76–86 75–87 74–88 71–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 76 1.0% 71–81 71–82 69–83 68–86
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 75 0.7% 71–80 70–81 68–83 67–85
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 74 0.1% 70–79 68–80 67–80 65–82
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 68 0% 64–73 63–74 63–75 61–78
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 66 0% 61–70 60–70 59–72 57–73
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 64 0% 58–68 57–69 55–69 53–72
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 60 0% 56–64 56–66 55–67 54–69
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 37 0% 34–41 32–43 31–43 28–46

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
91 0.1% 100%  
92 0.3% 99.9%  
93 0.5% 99.6%  
94 1.3% 99.1%  
95 0.7% 98%  
96 0.9% 97%  
97 2% 96%  
98 2% 94%  
99 7% 92%  
100 10% 84%  
101 6% 74%  
102 11% 68%  
103 8% 56%  
104 13% 48% Median
105 11% 35%  
106 5% 24%  
107 10% 19% Last Result
108 3% 9%  
109 3% 6%  
110 1.2% 2%  
111 1.0% 1.3%  
112 0.1% 0.2%  
113 0.1% 0.1%  
114 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.1% 100%  
80 0.1% 99.9%  
81 2% 99.8%  
82 0.5% 98%  
83 4% 98%  
84 2% 94%  
85 5% 92% Majority
86 5% 87%  
87 6% 82%  
88 17% 75% Last Result
89 12% 58%  
90 11% 47%  
91 8% 36% Median
92 9% 28%  
93 4% 19%  
94 4% 15%  
95 4% 11%  
96 4% 7%  
97 1.5% 3%  
98 0.4% 1.2%  
99 0.3% 0.9%  
100 0.4% 0.6%  
101 0.1% 0.2%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.4% 99.8%  
80 0.9% 99.5%  
81 2% 98.5% Last Result
82 2% 96%  
83 10% 94%  
84 6% 85%  
85 13% 79% Majority
86 7% 66%  
87 10% 59%  
88 10% 49%  
89 10% 39%  
90 11% 29% Median
91 5% 18%  
92 3% 13%  
93 2% 10%  
94 4% 8%  
95 2% 4%  
96 1.2% 2%  
97 0.4% 1.0%  
98 0.4% 0.6%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.4% 99.9%  
79 0.8% 99.5%  
80 2% 98.6% Last Result
81 1.0% 96%  
82 9% 95%  
83 8% 87%  
84 9% 79%  
85 11% 70% Majority
86 9% 59%  
87 10% 51%  
88 10% 40%  
89 12% 31% Median
90 4% 18%  
91 4% 14%  
92 3% 11%  
93 4% 8%  
94 1.4% 4%  
95 1.0% 2%  
96 0.6% 1.4%  
97 0.5% 0.7%  
98 0.1% 0.3%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.2% 99.9%  
75 2% 99.7%  
76 1.4% 97%  
77 1.3% 96%  
78 7% 95%  
79 6% 87%  
80 9% 82% Last Result
81 17% 73%  
82 11% 56%  
83 14% 45% Median
84 5% 31%  
85 6% 27% Majority
86 7% 21%  
87 3% 13%  
88 6% 11%  
89 2% 4%  
90 0.6% 2%  
91 0.6% 2%  
92 0.6% 1.1%  
93 0.3% 0.5%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.5% 99.7%  
73 0.6% 99.3%  
74 1.0% 98.6%  
75 1.4% 98%  
76 4% 96%  
77 3% 92%  
78 4% 89%  
79 4% 86%  
80 12% 82%  
81 10% 69%  
82 10% 60%  
83 9% 49%  
84 11% 41% Median
85 9% 30% Majority
86 8% 21%  
87 9% 13%  
88 1.0% 5%  
89 2% 4% Last Result
90 0.8% 1.4%  
91 0.4% 0.5%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0.2% 99.9%  
74 2% 99.8%  
75 1.2% 97%  
76 1.3% 96%  
77 7% 95%  
78 5% 88%  
79 8% 83% Last Result
80 15% 75%  
81 15% 60%  
82 9% 45% Median
83 8% 35%  
84 6% 27%  
85 8% 21% Majority
86 2% 14%  
87 7% 12%  
88 2% 5%  
89 0.8% 2%  
90 0.6% 2%  
91 0.6% 1.1%  
92 0.4% 0.5%  
93 0% 0.2%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.4% 99.8%  
72 0.4% 99.4%  
73 1.2% 99.0%  
74 2% 98%  
75 4% 96%  
76 2% 92%  
77 3% 90%  
78 5% 87%  
79 11% 82%  
80 10% 71%  
81 10% 61%  
82 10% 51%  
83 7% 41% Median
84 13% 34%  
85 6% 21% Majority
86 10% 15%  
87 2% 6%  
88 2% 4% Last Result
89 0.9% 1.5%  
90 0.4% 0.5%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.3% 99.9%  
68 0.5% 99.6%  
69 2% 99.0%  
70 1.4% 97%  
71 6% 95%  
72 5% 89%  
73 5% 84%  
74 12% 79%  
75 9% 67%  
76 19% 58%  
77 8% 39% Last Result, Median
78 10% 31%  
79 3% 21%  
80 6% 18%  
81 4% 12%  
82 6% 9%  
83 1.0% 3%  
84 1.2% 2%  
85 0.3% 1.0% Majority
86 0.3% 0.7%  
87 0.2% 0.4%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.3% 99.9%  
67 0.4% 99.6%  
68 2% 99.2%  
69 1.2% 97%  
70 5% 96%  
71 6% 90%  
72 4% 85%  
73 12% 80%  
74 7% 68%  
75 16% 61%  
76 13% 45% Last Result, Median
77 10% 31%  
78 4% 22%  
79 5% 18%  
80 4% 13%  
81 5% 9%  
82 0.9% 4%  
83 1.4% 3%  
84 0.5% 1.2%  
85 0.2% 0.7% Majority
86 0.3% 0.5%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.2% 99.8%  
65 0.5% 99.6%  
66 0.6% 99.1%  
67 2% 98%  
68 2% 96%  
69 2% 94%  
70 4% 92%  
71 7% 88%  
72 12% 82%  
73 5% 70%  
74 15% 65%  
75 10% 49% Median
76 12% 39%  
77 7% 28%  
78 9% 20%  
79 6% 12%  
80 4% 6% Last Result
81 1.0% 2%  
82 0.8% 1.1%  
83 0.1% 0.3%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.2% 100%  
61 0.3% 99.8%  
62 1.4% 99.5%  
63 5% 98%  
64 3% 93%  
65 11% 90%  
66 6% 79%  
67 17% 73%  
68 18% 56% Last Result, Median
69 11% 39%  
70 7% 28%  
71 6% 21%  
72 4% 15%  
73 5% 12%  
74 3% 6%  
75 2% 4%  
76 1.2% 2%  
77 0.3% 0.8%  
78 0.2% 0.5%  
79 0.2% 0.3%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.2% 99.8%  
57 0.4% 99.7%  
58 1.3% 99.3%  
59 1.0% 98%  
60 3% 97%  
61 4% 94%  
62 7% 90%  
63 10% 83%  
64 9% 73%  
65 14% 65%  
66 11% 51% Median
67 8% 40%  
68 11% 32%  
69 3% 21%  
70 13% 17%  
71 2% 4%  
72 1.4% 3% Last Result
73 1.1% 1.4%  
74 0.2% 0.3%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.8%  
53 0.2% 99.7%  
54 0.4% 99.5%  
55 2% 99.0%  
56 1.3% 97%  
57 3% 96%  
58 5% 93%  
59 3% 88%  
60 4% 84%  
61 12% 80% Last Result
62 9% 68%  
63 4% 59%  
64 11% 56%  
65 15% 45% Median
66 10% 30%  
67 7% 20%  
68 2% 12%  
69 8% 10%  
70 0.9% 2%  
71 0.6% 1.3%  
72 0.6% 0.7%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.3% 99.8%  
54 0.5% 99.5%  
55 4% 99.1%  
56 6% 96%  
57 9% 89%  
58 8% 80%  
59 16% 72%  
60 14% 57% Last Result
61 16% 43% Median
62 14% 27%  
63 3% 13%  
64 3% 10%  
65 2% 8%  
66 3% 5%  
67 2% 3%  
68 0.3% 1.2%  
69 0.5% 0.8%  
70 0.2% 0.3%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.1% 99.9%  
27 0.1% 99.8%  
28 0.2% 99.7%  
29 0.3% 99.5%  
30 0.5% 99.2%  
31 4% 98.7%  
32 2% 95%  
33 3% 93%  
34 7% 90%  
35 6% 83% Last Result
36 12% 77%  
37 22% 65%  
38 7% 43% Median
39 17% 36%  
40 4% 19%  
41 5% 15%  
42 2% 10%  
43 5% 7%  
44 0.9% 2%  
45 0.3% 1.2%  
46 0.7% 0.9%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations