Opinion Poll by Kantar TNS, 24–30 October 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 27.7% 25.7–29.8% 25.1–30.4% 24.7–30.9% 23.7–32.0%
Høyre 25.0% 26.8% 24.8–28.9% 24.3–29.5% 23.8–30.0% 22.9–31.0%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 13.8% 12.3–15.5% 11.9–16.0% 11.5–16.4% 10.9–17.2%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 9.1% 7.9–10.5% 7.5–10.9% 7.2–11.3% 6.7–12.0%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.3% 6.2–8.6% 5.9–9.0% 5.7–9.3% 5.2–10.0%
Rødt 2.4% 4.8% 4.0–6.0% 3.7–6.3% 3.6–6.6% 3.2–7.2%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.1% 2.4–4.0% 2.2–4.3% 2.1–4.5% 1.8–5.0%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 2.8% 2.2–3.7% 2.0–4.0% 1.9–4.2% 1.6–4.7%
Venstre 4.4% 2.3% 1.7–3.2% 1.6–3.4% 1.5–3.6% 1.2–4.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 50 47–55 46–56 45–58 43–59
Høyre 45 48 45–52 44–53 43–54 42–55
Fremskrittspartiet 27 25 23–28 22–29 21–30 20–32
Senterpartiet 19 17 15–19 15–20 14–20 13–21
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 14 12–16 11–16 11–17 10–18
Rødt 1 9 2–11 2–12 2–12 2–13
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 1 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–8
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 1 1–2 1–3 0–7 0–8
Venstre 8 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–7

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.2% 100%  
43 0.5% 99.8%  
44 1.1% 99.3%  
45 2% 98%  
46 3% 97%  
47 8% 94%  
48 11% 86%  
49 10% 75% Last Result
50 18% 65% Median
51 9% 48%  
52 10% 39%  
53 10% 29%  
54 7% 19%  
55 4% 11%  
56 3% 7%  
57 1.0% 4%  
58 2% 3%  
59 0.7% 1.0%  
60 0.1% 0.3%  
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 0.6% 99.7%  
43 2% 99.1%  
44 4% 97%  
45 8% 94% Last Result
46 14% 86%  
47 14% 72%  
48 15% 58% Median
49 16% 43%  
50 9% 27%  
51 7% 18%  
52 4% 10%  
53 3% 6%  
54 2% 3%  
55 0.4% 0.8%  
56 0.4% 0.5%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.1% 99.9%  
20 0.9% 99.8%  
21 2% 98.8%  
22 5% 97%  
23 12% 92%  
24 8% 80%  
25 26% 72% Median
26 16% 46%  
27 13% 30% Last Result
28 7% 17%  
29 5% 10%  
30 2% 5%  
31 2% 2%  
32 0.4% 0.6%  
33 0.1% 0.2%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 1.0% 99.9%  
14 2% 98.9%  
15 13% 97%  
16 16% 83%  
17 29% 68% Median
18 19% 39%  
19 14% 21% Last Result
20 4% 6%  
21 1.5% 2%  
22 0.3% 0.4%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.9% 99.9%  
11 5% 99.0% Last Result
12 11% 94%  
13 15% 83%  
14 31% 68% Median
15 24% 37%  
16 10% 13%  
17 3% 4%  
18 0.8% 1.0%  
19 0.1% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100% Last Result
2 10% 99.9%  
3 0% 89%  
4 0% 89%  
5 0% 89%  
6 0% 89%  
7 3% 89%  
8 21% 86%  
9 24% 65% Median
10 23% 41%  
11 12% 18%  
12 4% 5%  
13 0.8% 1.1%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 12% 100%  
1 39% 88% Median
2 10% 50%  
3 37% 40%  
4 0% 2%  
5 0% 2%  
6 0% 2%  
7 0.6% 2%  
8 1.3% 2% Last Result
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100%  
1 60% 95% Last Result, Median
2 29% 36%  
3 2% 6%  
4 0% 4%  
5 0% 4%  
6 0% 4%  
7 2% 4%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0.3% 0.4%  
10 0% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 17% 100%  
1 36% 83% Median
2 46% 47%  
3 0.1% 0.7%  
4 0% 0.5%  
5 0% 0.5%  
6 0% 0.5%  
7 0.2% 0.5%  
8 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 94 99.6% 90–98 89–100 87–101 85–103
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 92 99.4% 88–96 88–97 86–97 84–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 90 97% 87–94 86–95 84–96 83–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 85 66% 81–89 80–90 79–92 77–95
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 83 32% 80–87 79–88 78–90 76–92
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 82 20% 78–86 77–87 76–88 75–90
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre 89 78 2% 75–82 74–83 73–84 71–86
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 77 0.5% 73–80 72–81 72–82 70–84
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 75 0.1% 71–79 70–80 69–81 67–83
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 74 0% 70–78 69–79 68–80 66–82
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 71 0% 67–75 66–77 65–78 63–81
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 70 0% 66–74 64–75 63–76 62–79
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 68 0% 64–72 63–73 62–74 60–77
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 64 0% 61–69 60–70 59–71 57–74
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 51 0% 48–54 48–55 47–56 45–58
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 20 0% 17–23 17–24 16–25 15–29

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0.1% 100%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0.2% 99.8%  
85 0.3% 99.6% Majority
86 0.8% 99.3%  
87 2% 98%  
88 1.4% 97%  
89 3% 95%  
90 6% 92%  
91 9% 86%  
92 10% 77% Median
93 11% 67%  
94 17% 56%  
95 5% 38%  
96 10% 33%  
97 6% 23%  
98 9% 17%  
99 2% 7%  
100 3% 5%  
101 1.2% 3%  
102 0.9% 2%  
103 0.3% 0.8%  
104 0.2% 0.4%  
105 0.1% 0.2%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0.1% 100%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0.4% 99.8%  
85 0.8% 99.4% Majority
86 1.3% 98.6%  
87 2% 97%  
88 5% 95%  
89 7% 90%  
90 13% 83%  
91 10% 70% Median
92 17% 60%  
93 13% 44%  
94 12% 31%  
95 8% 19%  
96 5% 11%  
97 3% 5%  
98 1.3% 2%  
99 0.6% 0.9%  
100 0.2% 0.4%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100%  
80 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.2% 99.8%  
83 0.7% 99.6%  
84 2% 98.9%  
85 2% 97% Majority
86 2% 95%  
87 7% 93%  
88 7% 86%  
89 13% 79%  
90 16% 66% Median
91 12% 50%  
92 14% 38%  
93 10% 23%  
94 6% 14%  
95 5% 8%  
96 2% 3%  
97 0.7% 1.2%  
98 0.4% 0.5%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.6% 99.8%  
78 0.6% 99.2%  
79 3% 98.6%  
80 3% 96%  
81 3% 92%  
82 8% 89%  
83 8% 82% Median
84 8% 73%  
85 19% 66% Majority
86 11% 47%  
87 15% 35%  
88 6% 20% Last Result
89 7% 14%  
90 3% 7%  
91 2% 4%  
92 1.2% 3%  
93 0.5% 1.5%  
94 0.3% 1.0%  
95 0.2% 0.6%  
96 0.2% 0.4%  
97 0.2% 0.2%  
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.4% 99.8%  
77 1.2% 99.5%  
78 3% 98%  
79 4% 95%  
80 4% 91% Last Result
81 11% 87%  
82 17% 76% Median
83 9% 59%  
84 18% 50%  
85 9% 32% Majority
86 8% 23%  
87 6% 15%  
88 5% 9%  
89 2% 4%  
90 1.4% 3%  
91 0.7% 1.2%  
92 0.2% 0.6%  
93 0.1% 0.3%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.3% 99.9%  
75 0.7% 99.6%  
76 2% 98.9%  
77 4% 97%  
78 5% 93%  
79 4% 88% Last Result
80 16% 84%  
81 14% 68% Median
82 17% 55%  
83 12% 38%  
84 6% 25%  
85 9% 20% Majority
86 4% 10%  
87 3% 6%  
88 1.0% 3%  
89 1.0% 2%  
90 0.5% 0.7%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.2% 99.9%  
71 0.4% 99.8%  
72 0.8% 99.4%  
73 2% 98.6%  
74 5% 97%  
75 6% 92%  
76 10% 86% Median
77 15% 76%  
78 12% 61%  
79 16% 49%  
80 13% 33%  
81 7% 20%  
82 6% 13%  
83 2% 6%  
84 2% 4%  
85 1.4% 2% Majority
86 0.5% 0.9%  
87 0.2% 0.4%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0% 0.1% Last Result
90 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.3% 99.8%  
70 0.6% 99.5%  
71 1.4% 98.9%  
72 3% 98%  
73 6% 94%  
74 8% 89%  
75 13% 81% Median
76 13% 68%  
77 17% 55%  
78 10% 38%  
79 13% 29%  
80 6% 16%  
81 5% 10%  
82 2% 4%  
83 1.2% 2%  
84 0.6% 1.1%  
85 0.3% 0.5% Majority
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.2% 99.8%  
67 0.3% 99.6%  
68 0.6% 99.3%  
69 2% 98.7%  
70 3% 97%  
71 8% 94%  
72 7% 86%  
73 12% 79%  
74 13% 67% Median
75 11% 54%  
76 15% 43%  
77 7% 28%  
78 8% 21%  
79 5% 13%  
80 4% 8% Last Result
81 2% 4%  
82 1.2% 2%  
83 0.5% 1.0%  
84 0.3% 0.4%  
85 0.1% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.2% 99.8%  
66 0.4% 99.5%  
67 0.9% 99.2%  
68 2% 98%  
69 5% 96%  
70 6% 91%  
71 7% 85%  
72 14% 78% Last Result
73 13% 64% Median
74 14% 51%  
75 12% 37%  
76 7% 25%  
77 7% 18%  
78 5% 11%  
79 3% 6%  
80 1.3% 3%  
81 0.9% 2%  
82 0.5% 0.7%  
83 0.2% 0.2%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.2% 99.9%  
63 0.6% 99.7%  
64 1.4% 99.0%  
65 2% 98%  
66 3% 95%  
67 4% 93%  
68 6% 89%  
69 9% 82% Median
70 13% 73%  
71 14% 60%  
72 12% 46%  
73 10% 34%  
74 10% 24%  
75 4% 14%  
76 3% 10%  
77 3% 7% Last Result
78 1.2% 4%  
79 0.9% 2%  
80 0.6% 1.4%  
81 0.3% 0.7%  
82 0.1% 0.4%  
83 0.2% 0.3%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.3% 99.8%  
62 0.9% 99.6%  
63 1.4% 98.6%  
64 3% 97%  
65 4% 95%  
66 4% 91%  
67 8% 86%  
68 14% 78% Median
69 11% 65%  
70 16% 54%  
71 11% 38%  
72 7% 27%  
73 9% 20%  
74 4% 11%  
75 3% 7%  
76 2% 4% Last Result
77 0.9% 2%  
78 0.7% 1.4%  
79 0.3% 0.6%  
80 0.2% 0.3%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.2% 99.9%  
60 0.4% 99.7%  
61 0.9% 99.3%  
62 2% 98%  
63 4% 97%  
64 5% 92%  
65 9% 87%  
66 10% 78%  
67 16% 68% Median
68 13% 52% Last Result
69 9% 39%  
70 11% 30%  
71 4% 18%  
72 6% 14%  
73 4% 8%  
74 2% 4%  
75 1.0% 2%  
76 0.7% 1.2%  
77 0.4% 0.5%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.3% 99.8%  
57 0.4% 99.5%  
58 1.3% 99.1%  
59 2% 98%  
60 5% 96% Last Result
61 6% 91%  
62 6% 85%  
63 15% 79%  
64 15% 64% Median
65 12% 49%  
66 7% 37%  
67 9% 30%  
68 10% 21%  
69 6% 11%  
70 2% 5%  
71 1.3% 3%  
72 0.7% 2%  
73 0.5% 1.4%  
74 0.8% 0.9%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.6% 99.9%  
46 2% 99.2%  
47 2% 98%  
48 6% 95%  
49 13% 89%  
50 12% 76% Median
51 16% 64%  
52 17% 49%  
53 14% 31%  
54 8% 17%  
55 4% 8%  
56 3% 5%  
57 0.8% 2%  
58 0.5% 0.8%  
59 0.3% 0.4%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0.1% Last Result
62 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.2% 100%  
15 1.2% 99.7%  
16 2% 98%  
17 7% 97%  
18 13% 90%  
19 13% 76% Median
20 17% 63%  
21 18% 46%  
22 11% 28%  
23 7% 17%  
24 5% 10%  
25 2% 5%  
26 0.8% 2%  
27 0.5% 2%  
28 0.4% 1.1%  
29 0.4% 0.7%  
30 0.1% 0.3%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations