Opinion Poll by Norfakta, 5 November 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Arbeiderpartiet |
27.4% |
29.1% |
27.1–31.2% |
26.6–31.8% |
26.1–32.3% |
25.1–33.4% |
Høyre |
25.0% |
26.1% |
24.2–28.2% |
23.7–28.8% |
23.2–29.3% |
22.3–30.3% |
Fremskrittspartiet |
15.2% |
13.2% |
11.8–14.8% |
11.4–15.3% |
11.0–15.7% |
10.4–16.5% |
Senterpartiet |
10.3% |
11.7% |
10.3–13.3% |
10.0–13.7% |
9.6–14.1% |
9.0–14.9% |
Sosialistisk Venstreparti |
6.0% |
5.0% |
4.1–6.1% |
3.9–6.4% |
3.7–6.7% |
3.3–7.3% |
Kristelig Folkeparti |
4.2% |
4.0% |
3.2–5.0% |
3.0–5.3% |
2.8–5.6% |
2.5–6.1% |
Rødt |
2.4% |
3.9% |
3.1–4.9% |
2.9–5.2% |
2.7–5.4% |
2.4–6.0% |
Venstre |
4.4% |
3.9% |
3.1–4.9% |
2.9–5.2% |
2.7–5.4% |
2.4–6.0% |
Miljøpartiet De Grønne |
3.2% |
2.2% |
1.7–3.1% |
1.5–3.3% |
1.4–3.5% |
1.2–4.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
Arbeiderpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
42 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
43 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
44 |
0.3% |
99.8% |
|
45 |
0.5% |
99.5% |
|
46 |
2% |
99.0% |
|
47 |
2% |
97% |
|
48 |
3% |
95% |
|
49 |
4% |
92% |
Last Result |
50 |
13% |
88% |
|
51 |
12% |
74% |
|
52 |
9% |
62% |
|
53 |
9% |
54% |
Median |
54 |
16% |
44% |
|
55 |
10% |
28% |
|
56 |
6% |
18% |
|
57 |
3% |
12% |
|
58 |
4% |
8% |
|
59 |
2% |
4% |
|
60 |
0.9% |
2% |
|
61 |
0.4% |
0.8% |
|
62 |
0.3% |
0.5% |
|
63 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
64 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
65 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
66 |
0% |
0% |
|
Høyre
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
37 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
38 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
39 |
0.4% |
99.7% |
|
40 |
0.7% |
99.3% |
|
41 |
3% |
98.6% |
|
42 |
4% |
95% |
|
43 |
5% |
91% |
|
44 |
7% |
86% |
|
45 |
11% |
79% |
Last Result |
46 |
11% |
68% |
|
47 |
7% |
57% |
Median |
48 |
20% |
50% |
|
49 |
11% |
30% |
|
50 |
7% |
18% |
|
51 |
3% |
11% |
|
52 |
4% |
8% |
|
53 |
2% |
4% |
|
54 |
1.2% |
2% |
|
55 |
0.5% |
0.9% |
|
56 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
57 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
58 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
Fremskrittspartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
16 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
17 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
18 |
0.8% |
99.7% |
|
19 |
4% |
99.0% |
|
20 |
6% |
95% |
|
21 |
5% |
90% |
|
22 |
9% |
85% |
|
23 |
21% |
76% |
|
24 |
14% |
55% |
Median |
25 |
19% |
42% |
|
26 |
10% |
23% |
|
27 |
7% |
13% |
Last Result |
28 |
3% |
6% |
|
29 |
1.3% |
3% |
|
30 |
1.2% |
2% |
|
31 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
32 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
Senterpartiet
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
16 |
1.4% |
99.8% |
|
17 |
3% |
98% |
|
18 |
7% |
95% |
|
19 |
14% |
89% |
Last Result |
20 |
16% |
75% |
|
21 |
26% |
60% |
Median |
22 |
12% |
34% |
|
23 |
9% |
22% |
|
24 |
7% |
13% |
|
25 |
3% |
6% |
|
26 |
2% |
3% |
|
27 |
1.1% |
1.3% |
|
28 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
29 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
30 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sosialistisk Venstreparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
2% |
100% |
|
2 |
5% |
98% |
|
3 |
1.0% |
93% |
|
4 |
0% |
92% |
|
5 |
0% |
92% |
|
6 |
0% |
92% |
|
7 |
4% |
92% |
|
8 |
27% |
88% |
|
9 |
29% |
61% |
Median |
10 |
18% |
32% |
|
11 |
9% |
15% |
Last Result |
12 |
5% |
6% |
|
13 |
0.4% |
0.9% |
|
14 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
Kristelig Folkeparti
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
1 |
10% |
99.9% |
|
2 |
10% |
90% |
|
3 |
30% |
80% |
Median |
4 |
0% |
50% |
|
5 |
0% |
50% |
|
6 |
0% |
50% |
|
7 |
12% |
50% |
|
8 |
23% |
38% |
Last Result |
9 |
11% |
14% |
|
10 |
3% |
3% |
|
11 |
0.5% |
0.7% |
|
12 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Rødt
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
6% |
100% |
Last Result |
2 |
42% |
94% |
|
3 |
0% |
53% |
|
4 |
0% |
53% |
|
5 |
0% |
53% |
|
6 |
0% |
53% |
|
7 |
16% |
53% |
Median |
8 |
24% |
36% |
|
9 |
10% |
12% |
|
10 |
2% |
3% |
|
11 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
12 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Venstre
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
1 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
2 |
50% |
99.6% |
Median |
3 |
10% |
49% |
|
4 |
0% |
40% |
|
5 |
0% |
40% |
|
6 |
0% |
40% |
|
7 |
12% |
40% |
|
8 |
17% |
27% |
Last Result |
9 |
7% |
11% |
|
10 |
2% |
3% |
|
11 |
0.6% |
0.7% |
|
12 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
Miljøpartiet De Grønne
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
20% |
100% |
|
1 |
70% |
80% |
Last Result, Median |
2 |
9% |
9% |
|
3 |
0.5% |
0.8% |
|
4 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
5 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
6 |
0% |
0.3% |
|
7 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
8 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
9 |
0% |
0% |
|
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre |
107 |
101 |
100% |
96–107 |
95–109 |
93–111 |
91–113 |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne |
88 |
88 |
83% |
84–94 |
82–96 |
81–97 |
77–99 |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne |
81 |
88 |
82% |
83–94 |
81–95 |
80–96 |
77–99 |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt |
80 |
87 |
74% |
82–93 |
80–94 |
79–95 |
76–97 |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne |
80 |
83 |
34% |
79–88 |
77–90 |
75–91 |
72–93 |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti |
79 |
83 |
26% |
78–87 |
76–89 |
74–90 |
71–92 |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne |
89 |
82 |
26% |
76–87 |
75–89 |
74–90 |
72–93 |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre |
88 |
81 |
18% |
75–86 |
74–88 |
73–89 |
70–92 |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne |
77 |
80 |
15% |
75–85 |
73–86 |
72–88 |
70–90 |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti |
76 |
79 |
11% |
74–85 |
73–86 |
72–87 |
69–90 |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre |
80 |
75 |
2% |
70–81 |
69–83 |
67–84 |
65–86 |
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet |
68 |
74 |
0.4% |
69–78 |
68–80 |
66–81 |
64–84 |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet |
72 |
71 |
0.1% |
65–76 |
64–77 |
63–78 |
61–80 |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne |
62 |
68 |
0% |
62–73 |
60–74 |
58–76 |
56–78 |
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti |
60 |
62 |
0% |
57–66 |
55–67 |
53–68 |
50–70 |
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre |
61 |
57 |
0% |
52–62 |
50–64 |
50–65 |
47–69 |
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre |
35 |
31 |
0% |
26–36 |
24–37 |
24–39 |
22–41 |
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
90 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
91 |
0.3% |
99.8% |
|
92 |
0.4% |
99.5% |
|
93 |
2% |
99.1% |
|
94 |
2% |
97% |
|
95 |
2% |
96% |
|
96 |
4% |
93% |
|
97 |
5% |
90% |
Median |
98 |
13% |
85% |
|
99 |
5% |
72% |
|
100 |
8% |
67% |
|
101 |
10% |
59% |
|
102 |
8% |
49% |
|
103 |
9% |
40% |
|
104 |
6% |
31% |
|
105 |
5% |
26% |
|
106 |
8% |
21% |
|
107 |
5% |
13% |
Last Result |
108 |
2% |
8% |
|
109 |
2% |
6% |
|
110 |
1.3% |
4% |
|
111 |
0.9% |
3% |
|
112 |
1.0% |
2% |
|
113 |
0.4% |
0.7% |
|
114 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
115 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
116 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
117 |
0% |
0% |
|
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
74 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
75 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
76 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
77 |
0.3% |
99.8% |
|
78 |
0.2% |
99.5% |
|
79 |
0.8% |
99.3% |
|
80 |
0.5% |
98% |
|
81 |
1.1% |
98% |
|
82 |
3% |
97% |
|
83 |
4% |
94% |
|
84 |
8% |
90% |
|
85 |
5% |
83% |
Majority |
86 |
7% |
78% |
|
87 |
13% |
71% |
Median |
88 |
10% |
57% |
Last Result |
89 |
13% |
48% |
|
90 |
6% |
35% |
|
91 |
7% |
29% |
|
92 |
3% |
22% |
|
93 |
5% |
19% |
|
94 |
4% |
14% |
|
95 |
3% |
9% |
|
96 |
3% |
6% |
|
97 |
1.3% |
4% |
|
98 |
1.2% |
2% |
|
99 |
0.7% |
1.0% |
|
100 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
101 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
102 |
0% |
0% |
|
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
75 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
76 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
77 |
0.4% |
99.8% |
|
78 |
0.3% |
99.4% |
|
79 |
1.5% |
99.0% |
|
80 |
1.1% |
98% |
|
81 |
3% |
96% |
Last Result |
82 |
3% |
94% |
|
83 |
4% |
90% |
|
84 |
4% |
87% |
|
85 |
8% |
82% |
Majority |
86 |
7% |
74% |
|
87 |
7% |
67% |
|
88 |
14% |
61% |
|
89 |
6% |
46% |
|
90 |
6% |
40% |
|
91 |
7% |
34% |
Median |
92 |
12% |
27% |
|
93 |
4% |
15% |
|
94 |
3% |
10% |
|
95 |
3% |
8% |
|
96 |
3% |
5% |
|
97 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
98 |
0.6% |
1.2% |
|
99 |
0.4% |
0.6% |
|
100 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
101 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
102 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
103 |
0% |
0% |
|
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
74 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
75 |
0% |
99.8% |
|
76 |
0.5% |
99.8% |
|
77 |
0.3% |
99.4% |
|
78 |
2% |
99.1% |
|
79 |
0.9% |
98% |
|
80 |
2% |
97% |
Last Result |
81 |
4% |
95% |
|
82 |
3% |
90% |
|
83 |
5% |
87% |
|
84 |
8% |
82% |
|
85 |
5% |
74% |
Majority |
86 |
8% |
69% |
|
87 |
13% |
61% |
|
88 |
8% |
48% |
|
89 |
6% |
41% |
|
90 |
6% |
35% |
Median |
91 |
14% |
29% |
|
92 |
5% |
15% |
|
93 |
2% |
10% |
|
94 |
3% |
8% |
|
95 |
3% |
5% |
|
96 |
0.8% |
2% |
|
97 |
0.8% |
1.3% |
|
98 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
|
99 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
100 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
101 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
102 |
0% |
0% |
|
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
70 |
0% |
100% |
|
71 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
72 |
0.2% |
99.5% |
|
73 |
0.7% |
99.4% |
|
74 |
0.4% |
98.6% |
|
75 |
1.3% |
98% |
|
76 |
1.4% |
97% |
|
77 |
3% |
95% |
|
78 |
3% |
93% |
|
79 |
3% |
90% |
|
80 |
7% |
87% |
Last Result |
81 |
15% |
81% |
|
82 |
6% |
66% |
|
83 |
10% |
60% |
|
84 |
15% |
49% |
Median |
85 |
9% |
34% |
Majority |
86 |
5% |
25% |
|
87 |
6% |
20% |
|
88 |
5% |
14% |
|
89 |
3% |
9% |
|
90 |
3% |
6% |
|
91 |
1.2% |
3% |
|
92 |
1.4% |
2% |
|
93 |
0.4% |
0.9% |
|
94 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
95 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
96 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
97 |
0% |
0% |
|
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
68 |
0% |
100% |
|
69 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
70 |
0.4% |
99.9% |
|
71 |
0.1% |
99.5% |
|
72 |
0.8% |
99.5% |
|
73 |
0.4% |
98.7% |
|
74 |
1.1% |
98% |
|
75 |
1.4% |
97% |
|
76 |
3% |
96% |
|
77 |
2% |
93% |
|
78 |
2% |
91% |
|
79 |
9% |
89% |
Last Result |
80 |
13% |
80% |
|
81 |
7% |
67% |
|
82 |
10% |
60% |
|
83 |
15% |
50% |
Median |
84 |
9% |
35% |
|
85 |
4% |
26% |
Majority |
86 |
7% |
21% |
|
87 |
4% |
14% |
|
88 |
3% |
9% |
|
89 |
3% |
6% |
|
90 |
0.8% |
3% |
|
91 |
1.3% |
2% |
|
92 |
0.6% |
1.1% |
|
93 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
94 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
95 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
96 |
0% |
0% |
|
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
68 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
69 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
70 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
71 |
0.1% |
99.7% |
|
72 |
0.8% |
99.6% |
|
73 |
0.8% |
98.7% |
|
74 |
3% |
98% |
|
75 |
3% |
95% |
|
76 |
2% |
92% |
|
77 |
5% |
90% |
Median |
78 |
14% |
85% |
|
79 |
6% |
71% |
|
80 |
6% |
65% |
|
81 |
8% |
59% |
|
82 |
13% |
52% |
|
83 |
8% |
39% |
|
84 |
5% |
31% |
|
85 |
8% |
26% |
Majority |
86 |
5% |
18% |
|
87 |
3% |
13% |
|
88 |
4% |
10% |
|
89 |
2% |
5% |
Last Result |
90 |
0.9% |
3% |
|
91 |
2% |
2% |
|
92 |
0.3% |
0.9% |
|
93 |
0.5% |
0.6% |
|
94 |
0% |
0.2% |
|
95 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
96 |
0% |
0% |
|
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
67 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
68 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
69 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
70 |
0.4% |
99.7% |
|
71 |
0.6% |
99.4% |
|
72 |
0.5% |
98.8% |
|
73 |
3% |
98% |
|
74 |
3% |
95% |
|
75 |
3% |
92% |
|
76 |
4% |
90% |
Median |
77 |
12% |
85% |
|
78 |
7% |
73% |
|
79 |
6% |
66% |
|
80 |
6% |
60% |
|
81 |
14% |
54% |
|
82 |
7% |
39% |
|
83 |
7% |
33% |
|
84 |
8% |
26% |
|
85 |
4% |
18% |
Majority |
86 |
4% |
13% |
|
87 |
3% |
10% |
|
88 |
3% |
6% |
Last Result |
89 |
1.1% |
4% |
|
90 |
1.5% |
2% |
|
91 |
0.3% |
1.0% |
|
92 |
0.4% |
0.6% |
|
93 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
94 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
95 |
0% |
0% |
|
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
67 |
0% |
100% |
|
68 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
69 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
70 |
0.3% |
99.5% |
|
71 |
0.6% |
99.3% |
|
72 |
1.2% |
98.6% |
|
73 |
2% |
97% |
|
74 |
3% |
95% |
|
75 |
6% |
92% |
|
76 |
5% |
86% |
|
77 |
8% |
81% |
Last Result |
78 |
5% |
73% |
Median |
79 |
15% |
68% |
|
80 |
16% |
53% |
|
81 |
8% |
37% |
|
82 |
3% |
29% |
|
83 |
4% |
26% |
|
84 |
7% |
22% |
|
85 |
5% |
15% |
Majority |
86 |
5% |
10% |
|
87 |
1.1% |
4% |
|
88 |
1.4% |
3% |
|
89 |
0.5% |
2% |
|
90 |
0.8% |
1.3% |
|
91 |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
92 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
93 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
94 |
0% |
0% |
|
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
66 |
0% |
100% |
|
67 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
68 |
0.1% |
99.8% |
|
69 |
0.3% |
99.6% |
|
70 |
0.7% |
99.3% |
|
71 |
0.8% |
98.7% |
|
72 |
3% |
98% |
|
73 |
4% |
95% |
|
74 |
5% |
91% |
|
75 |
4% |
86% |
|
76 |
7% |
82% |
Last Result |
77 |
6% |
75% |
Median |
78 |
15% |
69% |
|
79 |
16% |
54% |
|
80 |
8% |
38% |
|
81 |
4% |
30% |
|
82 |
4% |
26% |
|
83 |
7% |
21% |
|
84 |
4% |
15% |
|
85 |
6% |
11% |
Majority |
86 |
2% |
5% |
|
87 |
1.0% |
3% |
|
88 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
89 |
0.7% |
1.2% |
|
90 |
0.3% |
0.5% |
|
91 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
92 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
93 |
0% |
0% |
|
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
63 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
64 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
65 |
0.5% |
99.7% |
|
66 |
1.0% |
99.2% |
|
67 |
0.9% |
98% |
|
68 |
2% |
97% |
|
69 |
2% |
95% |
|
70 |
4% |
93% |
|
71 |
7% |
89% |
|
72 |
5% |
82% |
|
73 |
9% |
77% |
Median |
74 |
17% |
68% |
|
75 |
7% |
50% |
|
76 |
6% |
43% |
|
77 |
6% |
37% |
|
78 |
8% |
31% |
|
79 |
5% |
23% |
|
80 |
5% |
18% |
Last Result |
81 |
4% |
13% |
|
82 |
2% |
9% |
|
83 |
4% |
7% |
|
84 |
0.9% |
3% |
|
85 |
1.5% |
2% |
Majority |
86 |
0.4% |
0.8% |
|
87 |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
88 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
89 |
0% |
0% |
|
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
62 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
63 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
64 |
0.4% |
99.8% |
|
65 |
0.5% |
99.4% |
|
66 |
2% |
98.9% |
|
67 |
2% |
97% |
|
68 |
2% |
95% |
Last Result |
69 |
5% |
93% |
|
70 |
5% |
89% |
|
71 |
13% |
84% |
|
72 |
10% |
71% |
|
73 |
8% |
61% |
|
74 |
9% |
53% |
Median |
75 |
16% |
44% |
|
76 |
6% |
28% |
|
77 |
7% |
22% |
|
78 |
6% |
16% |
|
79 |
3% |
9% |
|
80 |
3% |
6% |
|
81 |
1.0% |
3% |
|
82 |
1.5% |
2% |
|
83 |
0.3% |
0.9% |
|
84 |
0.3% |
0.6% |
|
85 |
0.1% |
0.4% |
Majority |
86 |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
87 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
88 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
89 |
0% |
0% |
|
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
57 |
0% |
100% |
|
58 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
59 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
60 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
61 |
0.4% |
99.6% |
|
62 |
1.4% |
99.2% |
|
63 |
1.4% |
98% |
|
64 |
5% |
96% |
|
65 |
2% |
92% |
|
66 |
5% |
90% |
|
67 |
5% |
85% |
|
68 |
6% |
80% |
|
69 |
6% |
75% |
|
70 |
8% |
69% |
|
71 |
19% |
61% |
Median |
72 |
10% |
42% |
Last Result |
73 |
7% |
31% |
|
74 |
5% |
24% |
|
75 |
7% |
19% |
|
76 |
3% |
11% |
|
77 |
4% |
8% |
|
78 |
3% |
5% |
|
79 |
0.8% |
2% |
|
80 |
0.5% |
0.9% |
|
81 |
0.2% |
0.4% |
|
82 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
83 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
84 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
85 |
0% |
0.1% |
Majority |
86 |
0% |
0% |
|
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
53 |
0% |
100% |
|
54 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
55 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
56 |
0.4% |
99.7% |
|
57 |
1.0% |
99.3% |
|
58 |
0.9% |
98% |
|
59 |
1.3% |
97% |
|
60 |
2% |
96% |
|
61 |
2% |
94% |
|
62 |
5% |
92% |
Last Result |
63 |
8% |
87% |
|
64 |
5% |
79% |
|
65 |
6% |
74% |
|
66 |
9% |
69% |
|
67 |
8% |
60% |
|
68 |
10% |
51% |
|
69 |
8% |
41% |
|
70 |
5% |
33% |
Median |
71 |
13% |
28% |
|
72 |
5% |
15% |
|
73 |
4% |
10% |
|
74 |
2% |
7% |
|
75 |
2% |
4% |
|
76 |
2% |
3% |
|
77 |
0.4% |
0.9% |
|
78 |
0.3% |
0.5% |
|
79 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
80 |
0% |
0% |
|
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
48 |
0% |
100% |
|
49 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
50 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
51 |
0.6% |
99.4% |
|
52 |
0.5% |
98.8% |
|
53 |
1.0% |
98% |
|
54 |
2% |
97% |
|
55 |
1.3% |
96% |
|
56 |
3% |
94% |
|
57 |
3% |
92% |
|
58 |
5% |
88% |
|
59 |
10% |
84% |
|
60 |
17% |
74% |
Last Result |
61 |
5% |
57% |
|
62 |
16% |
52% |
Median |
63 |
9% |
35% |
|
64 |
8% |
27% |
|
65 |
6% |
19% |
|
66 |
5% |
13% |
|
67 |
4% |
8% |
|
68 |
2% |
4% |
|
69 |
1.2% |
2% |
|
70 |
0.3% |
0.8% |
|
71 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
72 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
73 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
74 |
0% |
0% |
|
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
44 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
45 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
46 |
0.2% |
99.8% |
|
47 |
0.2% |
99.7% |
|
48 |
0.8% |
99.5% |
|
49 |
0.7% |
98.7% |
|
50 |
4% |
98% |
|
51 |
4% |
94% |
|
52 |
4% |
90% |
Median |
53 |
6% |
86% |
|
54 |
14% |
80% |
|
55 |
4% |
66% |
|
56 |
10% |
62% |
|
57 |
9% |
52% |
|
58 |
13% |
43% |
|
59 |
8% |
30% |
|
60 |
6% |
22% |
|
61 |
4% |
16% |
Last Result |
62 |
2% |
12% |
|
63 |
2% |
9% |
|
64 |
3% |
8% |
|
65 |
2% |
4% |
|
66 |
0.8% |
2% |
|
67 |
0.3% |
1.1% |
|
68 |
0.2% |
0.8% |
|
69 |
0.2% |
0.6% |
|
70 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
71 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
72 |
0% |
0% |
|
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre
Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
20 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
21 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
22 |
0.4% |
99.7% |
|
23 |
2% |
99.3% |
|
24 |
3% |
98% |
|
25 |
0.9% |
95% |
|
26 |
5% |
94% |
Median |
27 |
11% |
89% |
|
28 |
5% |
78% |
|
29 |
9% |
73% |
|
30 |
12% |
64% |
|
31 |
16% |
52% |
|
32 |
9% |
36% |
|
33 |
6% |
27% |
|
34 |
4% |
20% |
|
35 |
5% |
16% |
Last Result |
36 |
4% |
12% |
|
37 |
3% |
8% |
|
38 |
2% |
5% |
|
39 |
2% |
3% |
|
40 |
0.7% |
2% |
|
41 |
0.7% |
1.2% |
|
42 |
0.3% |
0.5% |
|
43 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Norfakta
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 5 November 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 804
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.30%