Opinion Poll by Sentio, 30 October–5 November 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 26.9% 24.8–29.1% 24.2–29.7% 23.7–30.3% 22.7–31.4%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 25.0% 22.9–27.2% 22.4–27.8% 21.9–28.3% 20.9–29.4%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 13.6% 12.1–15.5% 11.6–16.0% 11.3–16.4% 10.6–17.3%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 10.0% 8.7–11.6% 8.3–12.1% 8.0–12.5% 7.4–13.3%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.5% 6.4–9.0% 6.1–9.4% 5.8–9.8% 5.3–10.5%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.6% 3.8–5.9% 3.5–6.2% 3.3–6.5% 2.9–7.1%
Venstre 4.4% 4.5% 3.6–5.7% 3.4–6.0% 3.2–6.3% 2.8–6.9%
Rødt 2.4% 4.4% 3.5–5.5% 3.3–5.9% 3.1–6.2% 2.7–6.8%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 2.5% 1.9–3.4% 1.7–3.7% 1.5–3.9% 1.3–4.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 47 43–52 42–52 42–54 39–56
Arbeiderpartiet 49 45 41–49 40–50 39–51 38–54
Fremskrittspartiet 27 25 21–27 20–28 20–29 18–30
Senterpartiet 19 18 16–20 15–21 14–22 12–23
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 13 11–15 10–16 10–17 9–19
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 8 3–10 3–11 2–11 1–12
Venstre 8 8 2–10 2–10 2–11 2–12
Rødt 1 8 2–9 2–10 2–10 1–11
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–7

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.2% 100%  
39 0.4% 99.8%  
40 0.4% 99.3%  
41 0.9% 98.9%  
42 4% 98%  
43 6% 94%  
44 9% 88%  
45 14% 79% Last Result
46 6% 65%  
47 9% 59% Median
48 14% 50%  
49 9% 35%  
50 5% 26%  
51 10% 21%  
52 6% 10%  
53 1.5% 4%  
54 1.1% 3%  
55 0.6% 2%  
56 0.8% 1.1%  
57 0.2% 0.3%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 1.1% 99.7%  
39 1.2% 98.6%  
40 3% 97%  
41 7% 95%  
42 11% 87%  
43 15% 77%  
44 12% 62%  
45 9% 50% Median
46 15% 41%  
47 7% 26%  
48 7% 19%  
49 5% 12% Last Result
50 5% 8%  
51 1.4% 3%  
52 0.7% 2%  
53 0.3% 0.9%  
54 0.2% 0.6%  
55 0.2% 0.4%  
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.2% 100%  
18 0.6% 99.8%  
19 1.2% 99.2%  
20 4% 98%  
21 10% 94%  
22 6% 84%  
23 6% 79%  
24 9% 73%  
25 31% 64% Median
26 17% 33%  
27 8% 16% Last Result
28 5% 8%  
29 2% 3%  
30 0.7% 1.0%  
31 0.1% 0.3%  
32 0.1% 0.2%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.5% 99.9%  
13 0.7% 99.4%  
14 2% 98.8%  
15 5% 96%  
16 9% 92%  
17 21% 83%  
18 19% 62% Median
19 24% 43% Last Result
20 11% 19%  
21 5% 8%  
22 3% 3%  
23 0.6% 0.9%  
24 0.1% 0.3%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 1.2% 99.9%  
10 8% 98.7%  
11 13% 91% Last Result
12 22% 79%  
13 25% 57% Median
14 15% 32%  
15 10% 18%  
16 4% 7%  
17 2% 4%  
18 0.8% 1.3%  
19 0.4% 0.5%  
20 0.1% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.9% 100%  
2 2% 99.1%  
3 25% 97%  
4 0% 72%  
5 0% 72%  
6 0% 72%  
7 9% 72%  
8 24% 64% Last Result, Median
9 22% 40%  
10 12% 17%  
11 4% 6%  
12 1.4% 2%  
13 0.3% 0.4%  
14 0% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 29% 100%  
3 0.8% 71%  
4 0% 70%  
5 0% 70%  
6 0% 70%  
7 12% 70%  
8 28% 58% Last Result, Median
9 15% 30%  
10 11% 15%  
11 3% 4%  
12 0.5% 0.6%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 1.2% 100% Last Result
2 26% 98.8%  
3 0% 73%  
4 0% 73%  
5 0% 73%  
6 0.1% 73%  
7 13% 73%  
8 27% 60% Median
9 25% 33%  
10 6% 8%  
11 1.2% 2%  
12 0.3% 0.4%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 19% 100%  
1 64% 81% Last Result, Median
2 16% 17%  
3 0.6% 1.3%  
4 0% 0.7%  
5 0% 0.7%  
6 0.1% 0.7%  
7 0.4% 0.6%  
8 0.2% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 104 100% 99–108 98–109 97–111 94–114
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 87 72% 82–91 81–93 79–94 76–97
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 86 64% 81–90 80–92 79–93 75–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 84 42% 79–89 78–91 77–92 75–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 83 36% 79–88 77–89 76–90 73–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 82 28% 78–87 76–88 75–90 72–93
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 78 5% 74–83 71–85 71–85 69–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 77 3% 72–82 71–83 70–85 68–87
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 75 1.4% 71–81 70–82 69–83 67–86
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 72 0.1% 68–76 66–77 65–79 63–82
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 71 0.1% 66–76 65–78 63–79 62–81
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 70 0% 66–75 64–76 63–77 61–80
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 63 0% 59–67 58–68 57–70 55–72
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 61 0% 56–66 55–68 54–69 50–71
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 57 0% 53–62 52–63 52–64 50–67
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 32 0% 27–37 25–38 23–38 22–41

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
91 0.1% 100%  
92 0.1% 99.9%  
93 0.2% 99.8%  
94 0.5% 99.7%  
95 0.5% 99.2%  
96 0.7% 98.6%  
97 3% 98%  
98 5% 95%  
99 2% 90%  
100 13% 89%  
101 4% 75%  
102 6% 71%  
103 9% 65%  
104 15% 56%  
105 9% 41%  
106 11% 32% Median
107 8% 21% Last Result
108 4% 13%  
109 5% 10%  
110 2% 4%  
111 1.3% 3%  
112 0.4% 1.3%  
113 0.4% 0.9%  
114 0.3% 0.5%  
115 0.1% 0.2%  
116 0% 0.1%  
117 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0% 99.9%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.4% 99.8%  
77 0.2% 99.4%  
78 0.8% 99.2%  
79 2% 98%  
80 2% 97%  
81 4% 95%  
82 4% 91%  
83 3% 87%  
84 12% 84%  
85 8% 72% Majority
86 12% 64%  
87 14% 52%  
88 8% 38%  
89 10% 30% Last Result, Median
90 8% 20%  
91 3% 12%  
92 3% 9%  
93 3% 6%  
94 1.3% 3%  
95 0.8% 2%  
96 0.3% 1.2%  
97 0.5% 0.9%  
98 0.2% 0.4%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.3% 99.8%  
76 0.2% 99.4%  
77 0.7% 99.2%  
78 0.7% 98.5%  
79 2% 98%  
80 4% 95%  
81 4% 91%  
82 3% 87%  
83 10% 84%  
84 10% 74%  
85 13% 64% Majority
86 14% 50%  
87 6% 36%  
88 10% 30% Last Result, Median
89 9% 20%  
90 4% 11%  
91 2% 7%  
92 2% 6%  
93 2% 4%  
94 0.7% 2%  
95 0.4% 1.4%  
96 0.5% 1.0%  
97 0.3% 0.5%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0% 99.9%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.2% 99.8%  
75 1.1% 99.6%  
76 0.5% 98%  
77 1.1% 98%  
78 5% 97%  
79 8% 92%  
80 6% 83%  
81 6% 78%  
82 8% 72%  
83 8% 64%  
84 14% 56%  
85 11% 42% Median, Majority
86 8% 31%  
87 4% 23%  
88 5% 19% Last Result
89 5% 14%  
90 3% 9%  
91 2% 6%  
92 2% 4%  
93 0.9% 2%  
94 0.5% 0.9%  
95 0.1% 0.4%  
96 0.1% 0.3%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.3% 99.8%  
73 0.5% 99.5%  
74 0.4% 99.0%  
75 0.7% 98.6%  
76 2% 98%  
77 2% 96%  
78 2% 94%  
79 4% 93%  
80 9% 89%  
81 10% 80% Last Result
82 6% 70%  
83 14% 64%  
84 13% 50%  
85 10% 36% Median, Majority
86 10% 26%  
87 3% 16%  
88 4% 13%  
89 4% 9%  
90 2% 5%  
91 0.7% 2%  
92 0.7% 1.5%  
93 0.2% 0.8%  
94 0.3% 0.6%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.2% 99.8%  
72 0.5% 99.6%  
73 0.3% 99.1%  
74 0.8% 98.8%  
75 1.3% 98%  
76 3% 97%  
77 3% 94%  
78 3% 91%  
79 8% 88%  
80 10% 80% Last Result
81 8% 70%  
82 14% 62%  
83 12% 48%  
84 8% 36% Median
85 12% 28% Majority
86 3% 16%  
87 4% 13%  
88 4% 9%  
89 2% 5%  
90 2% 3%  
91 0.8% 2%  
92 0.2% 0.8%  
93 0.4% 0.6%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.2% 99.9%  
68 0.2% 99.8%  
69 0.9% 99.6%  
70 0.8% 98.7%  
71 3% 98%  
72 1.0% 95%  
73 3% 94%  
74 4% 91%  
75 11% 87%  
76 6% 76%  
77 10% 70%  
78 13% 60%  
79 7% 47%  
80 6% 40% Last Result, Median
81 9% 34%  
82 12% 25%  
83 5% 13%  
84 3% 8%  
85 3% 5% Majority
86 0.9% 2%  
87 0.7% 2%  
88 0.5% 0.9%  
89 0.2% 0.4%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.2% 99.9%  
68 0.4% 99.7%  
69 1.3% 99.3%  
70 2% 98%  
71 4% 96%  
72 9% 93%  
73 5% 83%  
74 6% 78%  
75 8% 72%  
76 12% 64%  
77 16% 52% Median
78 3% 35%  
79 7% 32%  
80 5% 25% Last Result
81 10% 20%  
82 3% 11%  
83 3% 8%  
84 2% 4%  
85 1.0% 3% Majority
86 0.7% 2%  
87 0.3% 0.8%  
88 0.3% 0.5%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.2% 99.9%  
67 0.5% 99.7%  
68 1.0% 99.3%  
69 2% 98%  
70 2% 96%  
71 11% 94%  
72 5% 83%  
73 6% 78%  
74 8% 72%  
75 15% 65%  
76 13% 49% Median
77 6% 37%  
78 6% 31%  
79 7% 25% Last Result
80 7% 19%  
81 5% 11%  
82 2% 6%  
83 2% 4%  
84 1.0% 2%  
85 0.7% 1.4% Majority
86 0.3% 0.8%  
87 0.3% 0.5%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.2% 99.8%  
63 0.7% 99.7%  
64 0.5% 99.0%  
65 2% 98%  
66 2% 97%  
67 4% 95%  
68 5% 91%  
69 12% 86%  
70 10% 74%  
71 8% 64%  
72 12% 56% Last Result, Median
73 15% 44%  
74 8% 29%  
75 9% 21%  
76 4% 12%  
77 4% 9%  
78 1.0% 4%  
79 1.2% 3%  
80 1.2% 2%  
81 0.2% 1.1%  
82 0.6% 0.8%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.1% 99.7%  
62 0.2% 99.6%  
63 2% 99.4%  
64 2% 97%  
65 2% 96%  
66 4% 94%  
67 7% 90%  
68 8% 83%  
69 10% 74%  
70 6% 64%  
71 14% 58%  
72 12% 44% Median
73 8% 33%  
74 6% 24%  
75 7% 18%  
76 4% 11%  
77 2% 7% Last Result
78 2% 5%  
79 1.2% 3%  
80 0.8% 1.4%  
81 0.2% 0.6%  
82 0.2% 0.4%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.2% 99.7%  
61 0.4% 99.6%  
62 0.9% 99.1%  
63 3% 98%  
64 1.4% 96%  
65 3% 94%  
66 9% 91%  
67 9% 82%  
68 7% 73%  
69 8% 66%  
70 14% 58%  
71 14% 44% Median
72 6% 30%  
73 7% 24%  
74 7% 17%  
75 5% 11%  
76 1.3% 6% Last Result
77 3% 5%  
78 1.1% 2%  
79 0.5% 1.2%  
80 0.4% 0.7%  
81 0.2% 0.3%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.2% 99.9%  
55 0.5% 99.6%  
56 1.1% 99.2%  
57 2% 98%  
58 3% 96%  
59 10% 93%  
60 9% 83%  
61 9% 74%  
62 12% 65%  
63 14% 54% Median
64 11% 39%  
65 8% 29%  
66 6% 21%  
67 4% 14%  
68 5% 10% Last Result
69 2% 5%  
70 2% 3%  
71 0.5% 1.3%  
72 0.5% 0.8%  
73 0.2% 0.3%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0% 99.9%  
49 0.3% 99.9%  
50 0.3% 99.6%  
51 0.4% 99.3%  
52 0.6% 99.0%  
53 0.8% 98%  
54 2% 98%  
55 4% 95%  
56 3% 91%  
57 3% 88%  
58 15% 85%  
59 8% 71%  
60 10% 63%  
61 9% 53% Last Result
62 6% 44%  
63 11% 38% Median
64 9% 27%  
65 6% 19%  
66 3% 13%  
67 2% 10%  
68 3% 7%  
69 2% 4%  
70 0.5% 2%  
71 0.8% 1.1%  
72 0.1% 0.3%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.3% 99.9%  
50 0.2% 99.6%  
51 1.5% 99.4%  
52 3% 98%  
53 6% 95%  
54 7% 89%  
55 6% 82%  
56 14% 76%  
57 15% 61%  
58 5% 46% Median
59 14% 42%  
60 7% 27% Last Result
61 5% 20%  
62 7% 15%  
63 4% 9%  
64 2% 4%  
65 0.7% 2%  
66 0.6% 1.5%  
67 0.5% 0.9%  
68 0.2% 0.4%  
69 0.2% 0.2%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.2% 99.9%  
22 0.4% 99.7%  
23 2% 99.2%  
24 0.7% 97%  
25 2% 97%  
26 1.3% 94%  
27 9% 93%  
28 4% 84%  
29 7% 79%  
30 10% 73%  
31 10% 63%  
32 9% 52%  
33 6% 44%  
34 11% 38% Median
35 9% 26% Last Result
36 6% 17%  
37 6% 12%  
38 4% 6%  
39 0.9% 2%  
40 0.6% 1.2%  
41 0.4% 0.6%  
42 0.2% 0.2%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations