Opinion Poll by Respons Analyse, 5–7 November 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 28.4% 26.6–30.3% 26.1–30.8% 25.7–31.3% 24.8–32.2%
Høyre 25.0% 26.5% 24.8–28.3% 24.3–28.9% 23.9–29.3% 23.0–30.2%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 12.8% 11.5–14.3% 11.2–14.7% 10.9–15.0% 10.3–15.7%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 10.3% 9.2–11.6% 8.8–12.0% 8.6–12.3% 8.0–13.0%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.3–8.2%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.2% 3.5–5.1% 3.3–5.4% 3.1–5.6% 2.8–6.1%
Venstre 4.4% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–6.0%
Rødt 2.4% 3.9% 3.2–4.8% 3.0–5.1% 2.9–5.3% 2.6–5.8%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 2.9% 2.3–3.7% 2.2–3.9% 2.0–4.1% 1.8–4.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 52 48–55 46–57 45–58 44–60
Høyre 45 48 44–52 42–53 42–54 41–56
Fremskrittspartiet 27 23 20–26 19–27 18–28 17–29
Senterpartiet 19 18 16–21 15–22 15–22 14–23
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 11 9–13 8–14 8–14 7–15
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 7 2–10 2–10 1–11 1–11
Venstre 8 7 2–9 2–9 2–10 2–11
Rødt 1 2 2–8 1–9 1–9 1–10
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 1 1–2 1–7 1–7 0–8

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.3% 99.9%  
44 1.3% 99.6%  
45 2% 98%  
46 2% 97%  
47 3% 94%  
48 8% 91%  
49 12% 83% Last Result
50 10% 71%  
51 10% 62%  
52 11% 52% Median
53 9% 41%  
54 15% 33%  
55 9% 17%  
56 3% 8%  
57 2% 5%  
58 2% 3%  
59 0.6% 1.4%  
60 0.7% 0.8%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.3% 99.9%  
41 1.0% 99.6%  
42 4% 98.6%  
43 4% 95%  
44 5% 91%  
45 12% 86% Last Result
46 8% 74%  
47 15% 66%  
48 15% 50% Median
49 7% 35%  
50 6% 28%  
51 10% 22%  
52 5% 12%  
53 4% 7%  
54 2% 3%  
55 0.6% 1.3%  
56 0.4% 0.7%  
57 0.1% 0.3%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0% 100%  
17 1.5% 99.9%  
18 2% 98%  
19 4% 97%  
20 11% 92%  
21 10% 81%  
22 12% 71%  
23 12% 59% Median
24 11% 48%  
25 20% 37%  
26 8% 17%  
27 5% 9% Last Result
28 3% 4%  
29 1.2% 2%  
30 0.1% 0.5%  
31 0.3% 0.3%  
32 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 1.2% 99.8%  
15 4% 98.6%  
16 18% 94%  
17 16% 77%  
18 21% 60% Median
19 18% 39% Last Result
20 10% 21%  
21 6% 11%  
22 4% 5%  
23 0.9% 1.3%  
24 0.3% 0.4%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.2% 100%  
3 0% 99.8%  
4 0% 99.8%  
5 0% 99.8%  
6 0% 99.8%  
7 1.4% 99.8%  
8 5% 98%  
9 13% 94%  
10 22% 81%  
11 26% 59% Last Result, Median
12 14% 33%  
13 12% 18%  
14 5% 6%  
15 1.2% 2%  
16 0.3% 0.4%  
17 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 4% 100%  
2 17% 96%  
3 27% 79%  
4 0% 52%  
5 0% 52%  
6 0.1% 52%  
7 13% 52% Median
8 16% 39% Last Result
9 13% 23%  
10 8% 11%  
11 3% 3%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 36% 99.9%  
3 2% 64%  
4 0% 62%  
5 0% 62%  
6 0.1% 62%  
7 24% 62% Median
8 22% 38% Last Result
9 12% 16%  
10 3% 4%  
11 0.5% 0.5%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 8% 100% Last Result
2 46% 92% Median
3 0% 45%  
4 0% 45%  
5 0% 45%  
6 0.1% 45%  
7 16% 45%  
8 20% 29%  
9 7% 9%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.2% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 59% 98% Last Result, Median
2 31% 39%  
3 2% 8%  
4 0% 7%  
5 0% 7%  
6 0% 7%  
7 5% 7%  
8 1.4% 2%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 100 100% 95–106 94–107 93–108 90–110
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 88 81% 82–93 81–95 80–96 78–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 87 75% 82–92 80–94 79–95 78–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 85 61% 79–90 78–92 77–93 74–95
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 84 39% 79–90 77–91 76–92 74–95
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 82 27% 78–87 76–89 75–91 73–93
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 82 25% 77–87 75–89 74–90 72–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 81 13% 76–85 74–87 73–89 71–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 77 5% 71–83 70–85 70–86 67–88
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 77 3% 71–82 70–83 68–85 66–87
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 75 2% 70–81 69–83 68–84 66–86
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 71 0% 65–76 64–77 62–78 61–80
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 70 0% 65–74 64–75 63–77 61–78
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 63 0% 58–67 57–68 56–70 54–73
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 59 0% 53–64 52–66 51–67 49–69
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 29 0% 24–35 23–36 22–38 20–39

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0.1% 100%  
89 0.2% 99.9%  
90 0.5% 99.6%  
91 0.3% 99.1%  
92 1.2% 98.9%  
93 2% 98%  
94 2% 96%  
95 5% 94%  
96 9% 89%  
97 4% 80%  
98 4% 75%  
99 17% 71%  
100 9% 55%  
101 7% 45%  
102 11% 38%  
103 10% 27% Median
104 2% 17%  
105 3% 14%  
106 5% 11%  
107 3% 6% Last Result
108 2% 3%  
109 0.5% 1.3%  
110 0.3% 0.7%  
111 0.1% 0.4%  
112 0.2% 0.3%  
113 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.2% 100%  
77 0.2% 99.7%  
78 0.4% 99.5%  
79 0.5% 99.2%  
80 3% 98.6%  
81 2% 96%  
82 5% 94%  
83 3% 89%  
84 5% 86%  
85 10% 81% Majority
86 7% 71%  
87 10% 64%  
88 13% 54% Last Result
89 9% 41% Median
90 7% 33%  
91 5% 26%  
92 7% 21%  
93 5% 14%  
94 2% 9%  
95 3% 7%  
96 2% 4%  
97 0.6% 1.5%  
98 0.6% 0.9%  
99 0.1% 0.4%  
100 0.1% 0.2%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0.2% 99.9%  
77 0.2% 99.8%  
78 1.4% 99.5%  
79 2% 98%  
80 3% 96%  
81 3% 93% Last Result
82 2% 90%  
83 6% 89%  
84 8% 83% Median
85 8% 75% Majority
86 13% 66%  
87 10% 53%  
88 12% 44%  
89 8% 32%  
90 7% 24%  
91 6% 17%  
92 2% 11%  
93 3% 8%  
94 3% 6%  
95 1.3% 3%  
96 0.7% 1.4%  
97 0.5% 0.7%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.5% 99.9%  
75 0.2% 99.3%  
76 1.2% 99.1%  
77 3% 98%  
78 4% 95%  
79 3% 92%  
80 2% 89% Last Result
81 5% 86%  
82 5% 81%  
83 7% 76% Median
84 9% 70%  
85 13% 61% Majority
86 12% 49%  
87 11% 37%  
88 6% 27%  
89 8% 21%  
90 5% 13%  
91 3% 8%  
92 3% 6%  
93 2% 3%  
94 0.4% 1.1%  
95 0.3% 0.7%  
96 0.3% 0.4%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.3% 99.8%  
74 0.3% 99.6%  
75 0.4% 99.3%  
76 2% 98.9%  
77 3% 97%  
78 3% 94%  
79 5% 92%  
80 8% 87%  
81 6% 79%  
82 11% 73%  
83 12% 63%  
84 13% 51%  
85 9% 39% Majority
86 7% 30% Median
87 5% 24%  
88 5% 19%  
89 2% 14% Last Result
90 3% 11%  
91 4% 8%  
92 3% 5%  
93 1.2% 2%  
94 0.2% 0.9%  
95 0.5% 0.7%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.2% 99.8%  
73 0.6% 99.6%  
74 0.9% 99.0%  
75 0.9% 98%  
76 2% 97%  
77 4% 95%  
78 8% 91%  
79 8% 83%  
80 6% 74% Last Result
81 10% 68%  
82 9% 59% Median
83 12% 50%  
84 11% 38%  
85 8% 27% Majority
86 8% 19%  
87 4% 11%  
88 2% 8%  
89 1.2% 5%  
90 1.4% 4%  
91 0.8% 3%  
92 1.2% 2%  
93 0.6% 0.7%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 99.9%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.5% 99.8%  
73 0.7% 99.3%  
74 1.3% 98.6%  
75 3% 97%  
76 3% 94%  
77 2% 92%  
78 6% 89%  
79 7% 83%  
80 8% 76%  
81 12% 68%  
82 10% 56%  
83 13% 47%  
84 8% 34%  
85 8% 25% Median, Majority
86 6% 17%  
87 2% 11%  
88 3% 10% Last Result
89 3% 7%  
90 2% 4%  
91 1.4% 2%  
92 0.2% 0.5%  
93 0.2% 0.2%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.3% 99.9%  
71 0.4% 99.6%  
72 1.3% 99.2%  
73 0.9% 98%  
74 2% 97%  
75 5% 95%  
76 5% 90%  
77 8% 85%  
78 7% 77%  
79 11% 70% Last Result
80 7% 58%  
81 7% 52% Median
82 13% 45%  
83 10% 32%  
84 10% 22%  
85 4% 13% Majority
86 2% 8%  
87 2% 6%  
88 1.2% 4%  
89 1.0% 3%  
90 0.7% 2%  
91 1.3% 1.4%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.4% 99.8%  
68 0.6% 99.4%  
69 0.8% 98.8%  
70 4% 98%  
71 4% 94%  
72 3% 89%  
73 5% 86%  
74 10% 81%  
75 9% 70%  
76 9% 61%  
77 11% 52% Last Result
78 6% 41% Median
79 6% 35%  
80 10% 29%  
81 4% 19%  
82 4% 15%  
83 3% 11%  
84 3% 8%  
85 2% 5% Majority
86 1.3% 3%  
87 0.9% 2%  
88 0.8% 0.9%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.2% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.8%  
66 0.7% 99.7%  
67 0.5% 99.0%  
68 1.3% 98.5%  
69 2% 97%  
70 2% 95%  
71 4% 93%  
72 6% 89%  
73 6% 82%  
74 8% 77%  
75 8% 69%  
76 8% 61%  
77 9% 52%  
78 9% 43% Median
79 12% 34%  
80 5% 22% Last Result
81 5% 16%  
82 5% 11%  
83 3% 6%  
84 0.7% 4%  
85 0.9% 3% Majority
86 0.7% 2%  
87 1.0% 1.1%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.2% 100%  
66 0.5% 99.8%  
67 0.8% 99.3%  
68 1.4% 98%  
69 5% 97%  
70 5% 92%  
71 5% 87%  
72 9% 82%  
73 12% 73%  
74 8% 62%  
75 13% 54%  
76 8% 42% Last Result
77 4% 33% Median
78 5% 29%  
79 8% 24%  
80 3% 16%  
81 4% 13%  
82 2% 8%  
83 2% 7%  
84 2% 4%  
85 2% 2% Majority
86 0.5% 0.8%  
87 0.2% 0.3%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.2% 99.9%  
61 0.5% 99.7%  
62 2% 99.1%  
63 1.1% 97%  
64 4% 96%  
65 3% 92%  
66 3% 89%  
67 5% 86%  
68 6% 80%  
69 7% 74%  
70 13% 67%  
71 10% 54% Median
72 10% 44% Last Result
73 9% 34%  
74 6% 26%  
75 7% 19%  
76 5% 13%  
77 4% 8%  
78 3% 4%  
79 0.4% 1.4%  
80 0.7% 1.1%  
81 0.1% 0.4%  
82 0.2% 0.3%  
83 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.2% 99.9%  
61 0.7% 99.7%  
62 1.1% 99.0%  
63 2% 98%  
64 3% 96%  
65 4% 92%  
66 10% 89%  
67 7% 79%  
68 9% 72% Last Result
69 10% 63%  
70 8% 53% Median
71 14% 45%  
72 8% 30%  
73 11% 22%  
74 3% 11%  
75 4% 8%  
76 2% 5%  
77 1.1% 3%  
78 2% 2%  
79 0.1% 0.3%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 1.1% 99.6%  
55 1.0% 98.5%  
56 2% 98%  
57 3% 95%  
58 7% 92%  
59 8% 85%  
60 9% 77% Last Result
61 10% 68%  
62 5% 59%  
63 12% 53% Median
64 11% 42%  
65 9% 31%  
66 7% 21%  
67 8% 14%  
68 2% 6%  
69 1.0% 4%  
70 0.6% 3%  
71 1.4% 2%  
72 0.1% 0.6%  
73 0.5% 0.5%  
74 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.2% 99.9%  
48 0.2% 99.8%  
49 0.4% 99.6%  
50 1.4% 99.3%  
51 1.4% 98%  
52 3% 96%  
53 4% 93%  
54 6% 89%  
55 2% 83%  
56 9% 80%  
57 6% 72%  
58 9% 65%  
59 11% 57%  
60 9% 46%  
61 13% 37% Last Result
62 5% 24% Median
63 6% 19%  
64 3% 13%  
65 2% 10%  
66 4% 8%  
67 2% 4%  
68 0.9% 2%  
69 1.0% 1.3%  
70 0.2% 0.3%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100%  
20 0.5% 99.9%  
21 1.4% 99.5%  
22 2% 98%  
23 5% 96%  
24 5% 91%  
25 6% 86%  
26 10% 80%  
27 6% 70%  
28 8% 65%  
29 7% 57%  
30 9% 50%  
31 10% 41%  
32 8% 30% Median
33 5% 23%  
34 5% 18%  
35 4% 13% Last Result
36 4% 8%  
37 2% 5%  
38 2% 3%  
39 0.9% 1.2%  
40 0.2% 0.3%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations