Opinion Poll by Opinion Perduco, 6–12 November 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 28.3% 26.2–30.6% 25.6–31.2% 25.1–31.8% 24.1–32.9%
Høyre 25.0% 26.2% 24.1–28.4% 23.5–29.0% 23.1–29.6% 22.1–30.6%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 11.9% 10.5–13.7% 10.1–14.1% 9.8–14.6% 9.1–15.4%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 10.8% 9.4–12.5% 9.1–12.9% 8.7–13.3% 8.1–14.2%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 6.0% 5.0–7.3% 4.7–7.7% 4.5–8.0% 4.0–8.7%
Rødt 2.4% 4.8% 3.9–6.1% 3.7–6.4% 3.5–6.7% 3.1–7.3%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.8% 3.0–4.9% 2.8–5.3% 2.7–5.5% 2.3–6.1%
Venstre 4.4% 3.7% 2.9–4.8% 2.7–5.1% 2.5–5.4% 2.2–5.9%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.3% 2.6–4.3% 2.3–4.6% 2.2–4.9% 1.9–5.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 51 49–56 46–56 44–57 43–59
Høyre 45 49 41–53 41–54 39–54 38–54
Senterpartiet 19 19 18–24 18–25 17–26 16–29
Fremskrittspartiet 27 19 17–21 16–23 14–23 14–26
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 11 8–13 8–13 8–13 7–15
Rødt 1 8 7–11 7–12 2–12 2–13
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 1–8 1–8 1–10 1–11
Venstre 8 2 2–8 2–8 2–8 1–10
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 2 1–8 1–8 1–8 1–8

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.2% 99.9%  
43 0.3% 99.7%  
44 2% 99.4%  
45 2% 97%  
46 2% 95%  
47 2% 94%  
48 0.5% 92%  
49 15% 91% Last Result
50 2% 76%  
51 26% 74% Median
52 26% 47%  
53 1.3% 22%  
54 5% 20%  
55 5% 16%  
56 6% 11%  
57 3% 5%  
58 0.4% 1.1%  
59 0.5% 0.8%  
60 0.1% 0.3%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.1% 99.9%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 0.6% 99.7%  
39 3% 99.1%  
40 1.3% 96%  
41 6% 95%  
42 4% 89%  
43 2% 85%  
44 3% 83%  
45 4% 81% Last Result
46 3% 77%  
47 10% 73%  
48 1.5% 63%  
49 25% 62% Median
50 14% 37%  
51 7% 23%  
52 6% 16%  
53 0.8% 10%  
54 9% 9%  
55 0.2% 0.4%  
56 0.2% 0.2%  
57 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.4% 100%  
16 0.3% 99.6%  
17 4% 99.3%  
18 15% 95%  
19 37% 80% Last Result, Median
20 9% 43%  
21 4% 34%  
22 15% 30%  
23 5% 15%  
24 1.3% 10%  
25 4% 9%  
26 4% 5%  
27 0.4% 1.1%  
28 0.2% 0.7%  
29 0.1% 0.5%  
30 0.2% 0.4%  
31 0.2% 0.2%  
32 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100%  
13 0.2% 99.9%  
14 2% 99.7%  
15 2% 97%  
16 3% 95%  
17 28% 93%  
18 6% 64%  
19 11% 58% Median
20 11% 47%  
21 26% 36%  
22 2% 10%  
23 6% 8%  
24 0.8% 2%  
25 0.8% 1.3%  
26 0.5% 0.6%  
27 0% 0.1% Last Result
28 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 0.4% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.5%  
4 0% 99.5%  
5 0% 99.5%  
6 0% 99.5%  
7 0.3% 99.5%  
8 15% 99.2%  
9 17% 84%  
10 16% 67%  
11 19% 52% Last Result, Median
12 7% 33%  
13 24% 26%  
14 1.0% 2%  
15 0.8% 1.1%  
16 0.3% 0.3%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.3% 100% Last Result
2 3% 99.7%  
3 0% 97%  
4 0% 97%  
5 0% 97%  
6 0% 97%  
7 16% 97%  
8 44% 81% Median
9 26% 37%  
10 0.7% 12%  
11 5% 11%  
12 5% 6%  
13 0.6% 0.6%  
14 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 12% 99.9%  
2 4% 88%  
3 45% 84% Median
4 0% 39%  
5 0% 39%  
6 0.1% 39%  
7 10% 39%  
8 24% 29% Last Result
9 2% 5%  
10 2% 3%  
11 0.6% 0.6%  
12 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100%  
2 71% 98% Median
3 2% 27%  
4 0% 24%  
5 0% 24%  
6 0.1% 24%  
7 10% 24%  
8 12% 14% Last Result
9 2% 2%  
10 0.6% 0.7%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100%  
1 24% 99.6% Last Result
2 46% 76% Median
3 2% 30%  
4 0.1% 28%  
5 0% 28%  
6 0.1% 28%  
7 17% 28%  
8 10% 10%  
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 94 99.0% 88–99 87–103 86–106 84–106
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 95 99.8% 91–101 89–103 88–104 86–106
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 91 97% 85–97 85–99 84–101 82–101
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 89 93% 86–94 84–99 83–99 79–102
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 86 67% 80–91 79–92 78–98 76–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 82 20% 78–88 78–90 77–91 73–93
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 79 8% 75–84 74–88 73–88 70–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 74 3% 73–82 72–83 70–87 68–88
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 78 3% 72–84 70–84 68–85 68–87
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 75 1.0% 70–81 66–82 63–83 63–85
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 71 0% 69–78 67–79 66–80 63–81
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 72 0% 65–74 62–76 62–76 59–82
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 68 0% 60–71 59–72 57–73 55–74
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 62 0% 59–66 57–67 56–68 53–70
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 56 0% 51–62 45–63 44–64 44–66
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 28 0% 24–34 24–36 23–40 21–41

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0.1% 100%  
83 0.2% 99.9%  
84 0.7% 99.7%  
85 0.2% 99.0% Majority
86 2% 98.8%  
87 4% 97%  
88 2% 92%  
89 2% 90%  
90 2% 88%  
91 2% 85% Median
92 18% 83%  
93 11% 65%  
94 25% 54%  
95 5% 29%  
96 10% 24%  
97 1.3% 14%  
98 2% 13%  
99 2% 11%  
100 0.4% 9%  
101 0.7% 9%  
102 2% 8%  
103 3% 6%  
104 0.4% 4%  
105 0.3% 3%  
106 3% 3%  
107 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 99.9%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 0.1% 99.8% Majority
86 0.2% 99.7%  
87 0.7% 99.5%  
88 4% 98.8%  
89 3% 95%  
90 2% 92%  
91 3% 90%  
92 2% 87% Median
93 8% 85%  
94 24% 76%  
95 14% 52%  
96 7% 38%  
97 1.2% 32%  
98 14% 30%  
99 3% 17%  
100 1.1% 13%  
101 5% 12%  
102 0.9% 7%  
103 3% 6%  
104 1.0% 3%  
105 0.6% 2%  
106 1.0% 1.2%  
107 0% 0.1% Last Result
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.2% 100%  
77 0% 99.8%  
78 0% 99.8%  
79 0% 99.8%  
80 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
81 0.1% 99.7%  
82 0.3% 99.6%  
83 0.7% 99.2%  
84 1.4% 98.5%  
85 11% 97% Majority
86 9% 86%  
87 4% 77%  
88 9% 73%  
89 2% 64% Median
90 9% 62%  
91 11% 54%  
92 21% 43%  
93 2% 22%  
94 2% 20%  
95 6% 17%  
96 0.7% 11%  
97 0.6% 10%  
98 1.1% 9%  
99 3% 8%  
100 0.8% 5%  
101 4% 4%  
102 0.1% 0.4%  
103 0% 0.3%  
104 0.2% 0.3%  
105 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 0.5% 99.9%  
80 0.1% 99.4%  
81 0.3% 99.3%  
82 0.7% 99.1%  
83 1.0% 98%  
84 5% 97%  
85 0.9% 93% Majority
86 2% 92% Median
87 15% 90%  
88 5% 75% Last Result
89 25% 70%  
90 10% 45%  
91 0.9% 36%  
92 5% 35%  
93 16% 30%  
94 5% 14%  
95 0.7% 10%  
96 0.4% 9%  
97 2% 9%  
98 0.3% 7%  
99 5% 6%  
100 0.3% 1.0%  
101 0.1% 0.6%  
102 0.1% 0.6%  
103 0.2% 0.4%  
104 0.1% 0.2%  
105 0.1% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 99.9%  
75 0.2% 99.9%  
76 0.7% 99.7%  
77 0.4% 99.0%  
78 1.3% 98.6%  
79 6% 97%  
80 3% 91% Last Result
81 3% 88%  
82 0.9% 85%  
83 5% 84% Median
84 12% 79%  
85 14% 67% Majority
86 26% 53%  
87 10% 27%  
88 0.6% 16%  
89 2% 16%  
90 3% 14%  
91 5% 10%  
92 0.9% 6%  
93 0.6% 5%  
94 0.2% 4%  
95 0.3% 4%  
96 0.1% 4%  
97 0.4% 4%  
98 3% 3%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.2% 100%  
70 0% 99.8%  
71 0% 99.8%  
72 0.1% 99.8%  
73 0.2% 99.7%  
74 0.3% 99.5%  
75 0.8% 99.2%  
76 0.9% 98%  
77 1.2% 98%  
78 21% 96%  
79 9% 76% Last Result
80 4% 66%  
81 5% 62% Median
82 13% 57%  
83 2% 45%  
84 23% 43%  
85 3% 20% Majority
86 4% 18%  
87 0.5% 13%  
88 3% 13%  
89 3% 10%  
90 3% 7%  
91 3% 4%  
92 0.3% 0.9%  
93 0.4% 0.6%  
94 0.1% 0.3%  
95 0% 0.2%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.7% 99.8%  
71 0.7% 99.1%  
72 0.2% 98%  
73 1.3% 98%  
74 5% 97%  
75 2% 92% Median
76 32% 90%  
77 3% 57% Last Result
78 1.1% 54%  
79 6% 53%  
80 1.4% 47%  
81 9% 46%  
82 7% 37%  
83 4% 29%  
84 17% 25%  
85 0.3% 8% Majority
86 0.6% 7%  
87 0.4% 7%  
88 4% 6%  
89 1.3% 2%  
90 0.5% 0.9%  
91 0.1% 0.5%  
92 0.2% 0.4%  
93 0% 0.2%  
94 0% 0.2%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 99.9%  
66 0% 99.9%  
67 0.3% 99.9%  
68 0.6% 99.6%  
69 1.0% 99.0%  
70 0.8% 98%  
71 0.4% 97%  
72 5% 97%  
73 6% 92% Median
74 38% 86%  
75 4% 48%  
76 2% 44% Last Result
77 12% 41%  
78 6% 29%  
79 0.7% 23%  
80 4% 23%  
81 7% 19%  
82 4% 12%  
83 4% 8%  
84 0.5% 4%  
85 0.2% 3% Majority
86 0.2% 3%  
87 2% 3%  
88 0.9% 1.1%  
89 0.2% 0.3%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.2% 100%  
66 0% 99.7%  
67 0.1% 99.7%  
68 4% 99.6%  
69 0.8% 96%  
70 3% 95%  
71 1.1% 92%  
72 0.6% 91%  
73 0.7% 90%  
74 6% 89%  
75 2% 83% Median
76 2% 80%  
77 21% 78%  
78 11% 57%  
79 9% 46%  
80 2% 38%  
81 9% 36%  
82 4% 27%  
83 9% 23%  
84 11% 14%  
85 1.4% 3% Majority
86 0.7% 1.5%  
87 0.3% 0.8%  
88 0.1% 0.4%  
89 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
90 0% 0.2%  
91 0% 0.2%  
92 0% 0.2%  
93 0.2% 0.2%  
94 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 3% 100%  
64 0.3% 97%  
65 0.4% 97%  
66 3% 96%  
67 2% 94%  
68 0.7% 92%  
69 0.4% 91%  
70 2% 91%  
71 2% 89%  
72 1.3% 87%  
73 10% 86% Median
74 5% 76%  
75 25% 71%  
76 11% 46%  
77 18% 35%  
78 2% 17%  
79 2% 15%  
80 2% 12%  
81 2% 10%  
82 4% 8%  
83 2% 3%  
84 0.2% 1.2%  
85 0.7% 1.0% Majority
86 0.2% 0.3%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.2% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.8%  
62 0.1% 99.7%  
63 0.1% 99.6%  
64 0.4% 99.5%  
65 1.2% 99.1%  
66 1.4% 98%  
67 5% 97%  
68 0.4% 91% Last Result
69 13% 91%  
70 11% 78% Median
71 41% 68%  
72 2% 27%  
73 4% 25%  
74 1.1% 21%  
75 5% 20%  
76 3% 15%  
77 2% 12%  
78 0.8% 10%  
79 5% 9%  
80 4% 5%  
81 0.3% 0.6%  
82 0.1% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.8% 99.8%  
60 0.2% 99.0%  
61 0.2% 98.8%  
62 5% 98.7%  
63 0.4% 94%  
64 3% 94%  
65 2% 90%  
66 7% 89%  
67 1.5% 82%  
68 3% 81%  
69 12% 78%  
70 8% 66% Median
71 4% 58%  
72 24% 54%  
73 14% 30%  
74 7% 16%  
75 2% 9%  
76 6% 7%  
77 0.3% 2%  
78 0.2% 1.2%  
79 0.3% 1.0%  
80 0.2% 0.8% Last Result
81 0.1% 0.6%  
82 0.5% 0.5%  
83 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0% 99.9%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 1.1% 99.8%  
56 0.3% 98.7%  
57 2% 98%  
58 0.8% 97%  
59 2% 96%  
60 4% 94%  
61 0.6% 90%  
62 5% 89%  
63 3% 84%  
64 5% 80%  
65 2% 76%  
66 4% 74%  
67 16% 70%  
68 11% 54% Median
69 1.4% 43%  
70 26% 42%  
71 10% 15%  
72 1.0% 5% Last Result
73 3% 4%  
74 2% 2%  
75 0.2% 0.2%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.2% 99.9%  
52 0.1% 99.6%  
53 0.9% 99.5%  
54 0.4% 98.7%  
55 0.6% 98%  
56 0.6% 98%  
57 4% 97%  
58 1.5% 93%  
59 15% 91%  
60 22% 77% Last Result
61 4% 55%  
62 9% 51% Median
63 4% 43%  
64 2% 39%  
65 22% 36%  
66 8% 14%  
67 4% 6%  
68 2% 3%  
69 0.3% 1.3%  
70 0.6% 1.0%  
71 0.1% 0.3%  
72 0.2% 0.3%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 3% 100%  
45 2% 97%  
46 0.2% 95%  
47 0.4% 95%  
48 0.6% 94%  
49 2% 93%  
50 0.7% 92%  
51 3% 91%  
52 5% 89%  
53 3% 83%  
54 22% 80% Median
55 7% 59%  
56 6% 52%  
57 6% 46%  
58 5% 40%  
59 10% 34%  
60 12% 24%  
61 1.2% 13% Last Result
62 5% 12%  
63 3% 6%  
64 0.8% 3%  
65 0.7% 2%  
66 2% 2%  
67 0% 0.2%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.2% 99.9%  
21 0.3% 99.8%  
22 1.3% 99.5%  
23 0.7% 98%  
24 24% 97% Median
25 8% 74%  
26 1.4% 66%  
27 12% 65%  
28 22% 53%  
29 4% 31%  
30 2% 27%  
31 2% 25%  
32 4% 23%  
33 5% 19%  
34 5% 14%  
35 0.8% 9% Last Result
36 4% 8%  
37 0.7% 4%  
38 0.3% 4%  
39 0.6% 3%  
40 0.8% 3%  
41 2% 2%  
42 0.2% 0.3%  
43 0% 0.1%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations