Opinion Poll by Norstat, 13–19 November 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 28.8% 27.0–30.8% 26.4–31.3% 26.0–31.8% 25.1–32.8%
Høyre 25.0% 24.4% 22.7–26.3% 22.2–26.8% 21.8–27.3% 21.0–28.2%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 13.1% 11.8–14.6% 11.4–15.1% 11.1–15.5% 10.5–16.2%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 12.0% 10.7–13.4% 10.3–13.8% 10.0–14.2% 9.4–14.9%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 6.5% 5.6–7.7% 5.3–8.0% 5.1–8.3% 4.7–8.9%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.3% 3.5–5.2% 3.3–5.5% 3.1–5.8% 2.8–6.3%
Rødt 2.4% 3.3% 2.7–4.2% 2.5–4.4% 2.3–4.7% 2.1–5.1%
Venstre 4.4% 3.2% 2.6–4.1% 2.4–4.3% 2.3–4.5% 2.0–5.0%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 2.9% 2.3–3.7% 2.1–4.0% 2.0–4.2% 1.7–4.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 53 49–57 48–58 47–59 46–62
Høyre 45 45 42–48 40–49 39–50 38–52
Fremskrittspartiet 27 24 21–27 21–28 20–29 19–29
Senterpartiet 19 22 20–25 19–25 18–26 17–28
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 12 10–14 10–15 9–15 8–16
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 8 3–9 2–10 2–10 1–11
Rødt 1 2 1–2 1–8 1–8 1–9
Venstre 8 2 2–3 2–8 1–8 1–9
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 1 1–2 1–4 1–7 0–8

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.3% 99.9%  
46 0.8% 99.5%  
47 2% 98.7%  
48 5% 97%  
49 5% 92% Last Result
50 6% 86%  
51 8% 80%  
52 21% 72%  
53 15% 51% Median
54 10% 37%  
55 5% 26%  
56 6% 22%  
57 7% 15%  
58 4% 8%  
59 3% 4%  
60 0.6% 1.4%  
61 0.3% 0.8%  
62 0.4% 0.5%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.4% 99.9%  
38 0.8% 99.5%  
39 1.3% 98.7%  
40 3% 97%  
41 4% 94%  
42 7% 90%  
43 8% 83%  
44 7% 76%  
45 29% 69% Last Result, Median
46 11% 40%  
47 14% 30%  
48 8% 16%  
49 3% 8%  
50 3% 5%  
51 1.1% 2%  
52 0.5% 0.7%  
53 0.2% 0.2%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.3% 99.9%  
19 1.1% 99.6%  
20 3% 98.5%  
21 9% 96%  
22 15% 87%  
23 19% 72%  
24 19% 53% Median
25 16% 34%  
26 7% 19%  
27 4% 11% Last Result
28 4% 7%  
29 3% 3%  
30 0.2% 0.3%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.5% 99.8%  
18 3% 99.3%  
19 6% 96% Last Result
20 13% 90%  
21 19% 78%  
22 28% 59% Median
23 12% 31%  
24 9% 19%  
25 6% 10%  
26 3% 5%  
27 1.2% 2%  
28 0.5% 0.6%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.6% 100%  
9 3% 99.4%  
10 10% 96%  
11 24% 86% Last Result
12 26% 62% Median
13 18% 36%  
14 12% 18%  
15 5% 7%  
16 1.1% 1.4%  
17 0.2% 0.2%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100%  
2 6% 98%  
3 24% 92%  
4 0% 68%  
5 0% 68%  
6 0% 68%  
7 5% 68%  
8 40% 63% Last Result, Median
9 16% 23%  
10 6% 7%  
11 1.0% 1.4%  
12 0.4% 0.5%  
13 0% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 14% 100% Last Result
2 76% 86% Median
3 0% 10%  
4 0% 10%  
5 0% 10%  
6 0% 10%  
7 3% 10%  
8 6% 7%  
9 1.2% 1.4%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 4% 99.9%  
2 82% 96% Median
3 4% 13%  
4 0% 9%  
5 0% 9%  
6 0% 9%  
7 3% 9%  
8 5% 6% Last Result
9 0.6% 0.8%  
10 0.1% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.0% 100%  
1 57% 99.0% Last Result, Median
2 35% 42%  
3 2% 7%  
4 0% 5%  
5 0% 5%  
6 0% 5%  
7 3% 5%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0.1% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 100 100% 95–104 94–106 93–106 91–109
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 95 99.8% 91–99 89–100 88–102 86–103
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 91 97% 86–97 85–97 84–98 82–100
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 89 92% 85–95 83–96 82–96 80–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 88 89% 84–94 83–95 82–95 80–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 87 74% 82–92 81–93 80–94 78–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 83 33% 78–87 77–89 75–90 74–92
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 82 13% 77–85 75–86 74–88 72–90
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 80 8% 74–84 73–86 73–87 71–89
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 78 3% 72–83 72–84 71–85 69–87
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 75 0.4% 70–80 69–81 68–82 66–84
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 71 0% 68–76 66–77 65–79 63–81
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 62 69 0% 65–74 63–75 63–76 60–78
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 69 0% 65–73 63–74 62–75 60–77
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 65 0% 61–70 60–71 59–71 56–73
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 55 0% 50–58 48–59 47–60 45–63
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 32 0% 27–35 25–36 24–37 23–40

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 99.9%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.2% 99.8%  
91 0.7% 99.5%  
92 1.0% 98.8%  
93 2% 98%  
94 4% 95%  
95 2% 91%  
96 10% 89%  
97 4% 79%  
98 7% 76%  
99 13% 69%  
100 9% 56%  
101 14% 47% Median
102 13% 34%  
103 6% 20%  
104 5% 14%  
105 2% 9%  
106 5% 7%  
107 1.1% 2% Last Result
108 0.4% 1.0%  
109 0.4% 0.6%  
110 0.2% 0.2%  
111 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0.1% 100%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 0.2% 99.8% Majority
86 0.7% 99.6%  
87 0.9% 99.0%  
88 2% 98% Last Result
89 3% 96%  
90 2% 93%  
91 6% 91%  
92 3% 84%  
93 8% 82%  
94 10% 74%  
95 16% 64%  
96 15% 48% Median
97 7% 33%  
98 14% 26%  
99 4% 12%  
100 4% 8%  
101 1.2% 4%  
102 1.3% 3%  
103 0.8% 1.3%  
104 0.2% 0.4%  
105 0.2% 0.2%  
106 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.1% 100%  
81 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
82 0.6% 99.7%  
83 0.6% 99.1%  
84 1.0% 98%  
85 4% 97% Majority
86 5% 94%  
87 4% 89%  
88 7% 85%  
89 13% 78%  
90 14% 65% Median
91 11% 50%  
92 8% 40%  
93 6% 32%  
94 5% 25%  
95 6% 20%  
96 4% 14%  
97 7% 10%  
98 1.0% 3%  
99 1.3% 2%  
100 0.4% 0.8%  
101 0.2% 0.4%  
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.5% 99.8% Last Result
81 1.1% 99.3%  
82 0.9% 98%  
83 3% 97%  
84 3% 95%  
85 6% 92% Majority
86 7% 85%  
87 8% 78%  
88 10% 70%  
89 20% 60% Median
90 8% 41%  
91 7% 33%  
92 6% 27%  
93 4% 21%  
94 7% 17%  
95 4% 10%  
96 4% 6%  
97 0.5% 2%  
98 1.2% 2%  
99 0.2% 0.4%  
100 0.1% 0.2%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 99.9%  
78 0.2% 99.9%  
79 0.2% 99.8%  
80 0.6% 99.5% Last Result
81 1.2% 98.9%  
82 2% 98%  
83 4% 96%  
84 3% 92%  
85 9% 89% Majority
86 7% 81%  
87 13% 73%  
88 16% 61% Median
89 10% 45%  
90 6% 35%  
91 6% 29%  
92 6% 23%  
93 6% 17%  
94 3% 11%  
95 6% 8%  
96 0.5% 2%  
97 0.9% 1.3%  
98 0.2% 0.4%  
99 0.2% 0.2%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.2% 99.8%  
78 0.4% 99.6%  
79 1.3% 99.2% Last Result
80 1.5% 98%  
81 4% 96%  
82 3% 93%  
83 4% 89%  
84 11% 85%  
85 9% 74% Majority
86 10% 65%  
87 19% 55% Median
88 7% 36%  
89 5% 29%  
90 6% 24%  
91 4% 18%  
92 6% 14%  
93 3% 8%  
94 3% 4%  
95 0.3% 1.2%  
96 0.6% 0.8%  
97 0.2% 0.3%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.2% 99.9%  
73 0.3% 99.8%  
74 0.3% 99.5%  
75 2% 99.2%  
76 1.5% 97%  
77 2% 96% Last Result
78 4% 94%  
79 6% 89%  
80 4% 84%  
81 6% 80%  
82 10% 73%  
83 16% 64%  
84 14% 48% Median
85 12% 33% Majority
86 10% 22%  
87 4% 12%  
88 2% 7%  
89 2% 5%  
90 1.4% 3%  
91 0.9% 2%  
92 0.6% 0.8%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.3% 99.9%  
72 0.4% 99.6%  
73 0.9% 99.2%  
74 2% 98%  
75 2% 97%  
76 3% 95% Last Result
77 5% 92%  
78 7% 86%  
79 6% 80%  
80 7% 74%  
81 9% 66%  
82 17% 57%  
83 15% 40% Median
84 12% 26%  
85 6% 13% Majority
86 3% 7%  
87 2% 4%  
88 2% 3%  
89 0.3% 0.9%  
90 0.5% 0.6%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.2% 99.8%  
71 1.2% 99.6%  
72 0.5% 98%  
73 4% 98%  
74 4% 94%  
75 7% 90%  
76 4% 83%  
77 6% 79%  
78 7% 73%  
79 8% 67%  
80 20% 59% Median
81 10% 40%  
82 8% 30%  
83 7% 22%  
84 6% 15%  
85 3% 8% Majority
86 3% 5%  
87 0.9% 3%  
88 1.1% 2%  
89 0.5% 0.7% Last Result
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.2% 99.8%  
69 0.4% 99.6%  
70 1.3% 99.2%  
71 1.0% 98%  
72 7% 97%  
73 4% 90%  
74 6% 86%  
75 5% 80%  
76 6% 75%  
77 8% 68%  
78 11% 60%  
79 14% 50% Median
80 13% 35%  
81 7% 22%  
82 4% 15%  
83 5% 11%  
84 4% 6%  
85 1.0% 3% Majority
86 0.6% 2%  
87 0.6% 0.9%  
88 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.2% 99.9%  
66 0.2% 99.7%  
67 1.0% 99.4%  
68 2% 98% Last Result
69 3% 97%  
70 5% 94%  
71 5% 89%  
72 7% 84%  
73 8% 77%  
74 18% 69%  
75 16% 51% Median
76 9% 35%  
77 5% 26%  
78 4% 21%  
79 6% 17%  
80 4% 12%  
81 4% 8%  
82 3% 4%  
83 0.3% 0.9%  
84 0.3% 0.6%  
85 0.3% 0.4% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.3% 99.8%  
63 0.6% 99.6%  
64 1.4% 98.9%  
65 2% 98%  
66 2% 96%  
67 4% 94%  
68 5% 90%  
69 16% 85%  
70 6% 70%  
71 16% 63% Median
72 16% 47%  
73 8% 31%  
74 6% 23%  
75 5% 17%  
76 5% 12%  
77 2% 7%  
78 2% 5%  
79 2% 3%  
80 0.3% 1.0% Last Result
81 0.5% 0.7%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.2% 100%  
60 0.4% 99.8%  
61 0.4% 99.4%  
62 1.1% 99.0% Last Result
63 5% 98%  
64 2% 93%  
65 5% 91%  
66 6% 86%  
67 13% 80%  
68 14% 66% Median
69 9% 53%  
70 13% 44%  
71 7% 31%  
72 4% 24%  
73 10% 21%  
74 2% 11%  
75 4% 9%  
76 2% 5%  
77 1.0% 2%  
78 0.7% 1.2%  
79 0.2% 0.5%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.4% 99.8%  
61 1.0% 99.4%  
62 2% 98%  
63 2% 96%  
64 2% 94%  
65 5% 92%  
66 5% 87%  
67 14% 82%  
68 8% 67%  
69 16% 59% Median
70 16% 43%  
71 10% 28%  
72 6% 18% Last Result
73 4% 12%  
74 5% 8%  
75 1.4% 3%  
76 1.0% 2%  
77 0.7% 0.9%  
78 0.2% 0.3%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.4% 99.9%  
57 0.6% 99.4%  
58 1.2% 98.9%  
59 2% 98%  
60 4% 96% Last Result
61 5% 91%  
62 7% 86%  
63 9% 79%  
64 15% 70%  
65 15% 55% Median
66 11% 40%  
67 8% 29%  
68 5% 21%  
69 4% 16%  
70 7% 12%  
71 4% 5%  
72 0.6% 2%  
73 0.5% 0.9%  
74 0.2% 0.4%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.6% 99.8%  
46 0.6% 99.2%  
47 2% 98.5%  
48 3% 97%  
49 3% 94%  
50 8% 91%  
51 9% 83%  
52 6% 73%  
53 7% 67%  
54 7% 61%  
55 16% 54% Median
56 10% 37%  
57 10% 27%  
58 9% 17%  
59 4% 8%  
60 2% 4%  
61 0.6% 2% Last Result
62 0.7% 1.5%  
63 0.5% 0.8%  
64 0.2% 0.3%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.3% 99.9%  
23 0.8% 99.7%  
24 2% 98.9%  
25 2% 97%  
26 3% 95%  
27 9% 91%  
28 5% 82%  
29 7% 78%  
30 13% 71%  
31 6% 58%  
32 25% 53% Median
33 9% 27%  
34 6% 18%  
35 4% 12% Last Result
36 4% 8%  
37 2% 4%  
38 1.3% 2%  
39 0.4% 1.0%  
40 0.3% 0.6%  
41 0.2% 0.3%  
42 0% 0.1%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations