Opinion Poll by Ipsos MMI, 19–21 November 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 31.2% 29.3–33.2% 28.7–33.8% 28.3–34.3% 27.4–35.2%
Høyre 25.0% 23.1% 21.4–25.0% 20.9–25.5% 20.5–26.0% 19.7–26.9%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 12.8% 11.4–14.3% 11.1–14.7% 10.7–15.1% 10.2–15.8%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 11.7% 10.4–13.1% 10.0–13.5% 9.7–13.9% 9.2–14.6%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 6.1% 5.2–7.3% 4.9–7.6% 4.7–7.8% 4.3–8.4%
Rødt 2.4% 3.6% 2.9–4.5% 2.7–4.8% 2.6–5.0% 2.3–5.5%
Venstre 4.4% 3.6% 2.9–4.5% 2.7–4.8% 2.6–5.0% 2.3–5.5%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.3% 2.6–4.2% 2.5–4.4% 2.3–4.6% 2.0–5.1%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 2.5% 2.0–3.3% 1.8–3.5% 1.7–3.7% 1.4–4.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 60 54–61 54–62 52–62 51–66
Høyre 45 42 39–46 38–47 38–47 36–49
Fremskrittspartiet 27 24 20–25 20–26 20–28 18–29
Senterpartiet 19 22 21–23 20–24 19–24 18–28
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 12 11–13 9–13 9–13 8–15
Rødt 1 2 2–8 2–8 1–9 1–9
Venstre 8 2 2–8 2–8 2–8 2–10
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 2 1–3 1–3 1–8 0–9
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 1 1–2 1–2 0–2 0–3

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100% Last Result
50 0.3% 99.9%  
51 0.4% 99.6%  
52 3% 99.2%  
53 0.6% 96%  
54 8% 95%  
55 1.2% 87%  
56 2% 86%  
57 17% 84%  
58 11% 67%  
59 2% 56%  
60 40% 54% Median
61 8% 14%  
62 5% 6%  
63 0.3% 1.4%  
64 0.5% 1.1%  
65 0.1% 0.6%  
66 0.3% 0.5%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.2% 100%  
36 0.5% 99.8%  
37 0.3% 99.2%  
38 9% 98.9%  
39 2% 90%  
40 2% 88%  
41 5% 86%  
42 41% 82% Median
43 18% 41%  
44 4% 23%  
45 2% 18% Last Result
46 6% 16%  
47 8% 10%  
48 0.8% 2%  
49 0.3% 0.7%  
50 0.2% 0.4%  
51 0.2% 0.3%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.4% 99.9%  
19 1.3% 99.5%  
20 17% 98%  
21 1.1% 81%  
22 22% 80%  
23 5% 57%  
24 34% 52% Median
25 9% 18%  
26 5% 9%  
27 1.3% 4% Last Result
28 1.4% 3%  
29 1.0% 1.5%  
30 0.4% 0.5%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.3% 99.9%  
18 1.2% 99.7%  
19 3% 98% Last Result
20 4% 95%  
21 26% 91%  
22 44% 65% Median
23 14% 21%  
24 5% 7%  
25 0.7% 2%  
26 0.2% 0.9%  
27 0.1% 0.7%  
28 0.5% 0.6%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0% 99.9%  
8 1.1% 99.9%  
9 5% 98.8%  
10 1.4% 94%  
11 8% 92% Last Result
12 43% 84% Median
13 40% 41%  
14 0.7% 1.3%  
15 0.1% 0.6%  
16 0.3% 0.5%  
17 0.2% 0.2%  
18 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 4% 100% Last Result
2 65% 96% Median
3 0% 31%  
4 0% 31%  
5 0% 31%  
6 0% 31%  
7 0.8% 31%  
8 28% 31%  
9 2% 3%  
10 0.4% 0.5%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.2% 100%  
2 74% 99.8% Median
3 1.4% 25%  
4 0% 24%  
5 0% 24%  
6 0% 24%  
7 2% 24%  
8 20% 22% Last Result
9 0.7% 2%  
10 1.2% 1.3%  
11 0% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.6% 100%  
1 10% 99.4%  
2 57% 89% Median
3 28% 32%  
4 0% 5%  
5 0% 5%  
6 0% 5%  
7 2% 5%  
8 2% 3% Last Result
9 1.0% 1.3%  
10 0.2% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 75% 96% Last Result, Median
2 20% 21%  
3 0.4% 0.9%  
4 0% 0.5%  
5 0% 0.5%  
6 0% 0.5%  
7 0.2% 0.5%  
8 0.3% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 98 100% 93–102 91–103 90–103 85–103
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 97 98.7% 92–101 90–102 88–102 84–102
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 93 99.9% 88–99 88–99 88–102 88–103
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 96 99.9% 92–99 90–99 89–100 87–104
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 94 98% 89–96 88–96 85–97 83–100
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 93 97% 88–95 86–96 84–96 82–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 84 41% 81–86 79–86 77–88 75–92
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 83 32% 80–85 78–86 76–87 74–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 81 2% 77–82 75–84 73–84 71–88
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 72 1.3% 68–77 67–79 67–81 67–85
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 71 0% 67–76 66–78 66–79 66–84
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 68 0% 65–73 64–76 64–77 62–78
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 72 0% 67–73 64–74 63–74 63–77
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 66 0% 62–70 62–71 62–73 59–74
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 47 0% 44–52 42–54 42–57 42–59
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 27 0% 25–32 25–33 24–34 21–36

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 1.3% 100% Majority
86 0.1% 98.7%  
87 0.1% 98.6%  
88 0.5% 98%  
89 0.2% 98%  
90 3% 98%  
91 1.3% 95%  
92 1.1% 94%  
93 3% 93%  
94 5% 90%  
95 16% 84%  
96 10% 68%  
97 2% 58% Median
98 25% 56%  
99 3% 31%  
100 2% 27%  
101 0.5% 26%  
102 16% 25%  
103 9% 9%  
104 0.3% 0.5%  
105 0% 0.2%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0.1% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 1.3% 99.9%  
85 0.2% 98.7% Majority
86 0.1% 98.5%  
87 0.5% 98%  
88 0.7% 98%  
89 2% 97%  
90 1.5% 95%  
91 1.2% 94%  
92 3% 92%  
93 21% 89%  
94 1.2% 69%  
95 10% 67%  
96 2% 58% Median
97 24% 55%  
98 5% 32%  
99 0.7% 27%  
100 0.8% 26%  
101 17% 25%  
102 8% 8%  
103 0.3% 0.4%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0.1% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 99.9%  
85 0.1% 99.9% Majority
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0.2% 99.8%  
88 16% 99.6%  
89 9% 83%  
90 0.9% 74%  
91 0.8% 73%  
92 4% 72% Median
93 27% 69%  
94 8% 42%  
95 2% 34%  
96 18% 32%  
97 1.2% 14%  
98 1.3% 13%  
99 7% 12%  
100 1.4% 5%  
101 0.3% 3%  
102 1.3% 3%  
103 2% 2%  
104 0.1% 0.2%  
105 0.1% 0.1%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0% 100%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 0% 99.9% Majority
86 0.2% 99.8%  
87 0.3% 99.6%  
88 0.7% 99.3% Last Result
89 3% 98.5%  
90 2% 95%  
91 2% 93%  
92 3% 91%  
93 1.4% 88%  
94 6% 87%  
95 16% 81%  
96 23% 65%  
97 8% 42% Median
98 6% 33%  
99 24% 27%  
100 1.4% 3%  
101 0.4% 2%  
102 0.5% 1.2%  
103 0.2% 0.7%  
104 0.3% 0.6%  
105 0% 0.3%  
106 0.2% 0.2%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.1% 100% Last Result
81 0% 99.9%  
82 0% 99.9%  
83 1.4% 99.9%  
84 0.4% 98%  
85 0.6% 98% Majority
86 0.8% 97%  
87 1.3% 97%  
88 4% 95%  
89 3% 92%  
90 1.1% 89%  
91 3% 88%  
92 6% 85%  
93 15% 79%  
94 24% 64%  
95 9% 40% Median
96 26% 31%  
97 3% 5%  
98 0.7% 2%  
99 0.3% 1.0%  
100 0.2% 0.7%  
101 0.1% 0.5%  
102 0.3% 0.3%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.1% 100%  
79 0% 99.9% Last Result
80 0.1% 99.9%  
81 0% 99.8%  
82 1.5% 99.8%  
83 0.4% 98%  
84 0.8% 98%  
85 0.7% 97% Majority
86 2% 96%  
87 3% 95%  
88 3% 92%  
89 2% 89%  
90 3% 87%  
91 21% 85%  
92 2% 64%  
93 22% 62%  
94 10% 40% Median
95 24% 30%  
96 4% 6%  
97 0.4% 1.5%  
98 0.6% 1.1%  
99 0.1% 0.6%  
100 0.2% 0.4%  
101 0.2% 0.3%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 99.9%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.4% 99.8%  
76 0.6% 99.5%  
77 2% 98.9% Last Result
78 1.0% 97%  
79 3% 96%  
80 2% 93%  
81 7% 91%  
82 2% 84%  
83 16% 82%  
84 25% 65%  
85 7% 41% Median, Majority
86 29% 33%  
87 1.5% 5%  
88 0.7% 3%  
89 0.4% 2%  
90 0.3% 2%  
91 1.1% 2%  
92 0.4% 0.8%  
93 0.1% 0.3%  
94 0.2% 0.2%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 99.9%  
73 0.2% 99.9%  
74 0.6% 99.7%  
75 0.6% 99.2%  
76 2% 98.5% Last Result
77 1.0% 96%  
78 3% 95%  
79 3% 93%  
80 7% 90%  
81 18% 83%  
82 0.8% 66%  
83 25% 65%  
84 8% 40% Median
85 26% 32% Majority
86 2% 6%  
87 1.1% 3%  
88 0.2% 2%  
89 0.4% 2%  
90 0.9% 2%  
91 0.4% 0.7%  
92 0.2% 0.3%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100% Last Result
69 0% 100%  
70 0.2% 99.9%  
71 0.3% 99.7%  
72 0.2% 99.5%  
73 2% 99.3%  
74 0.9% 97%  
75 4% 96%  
76 1.2% 92%  
77 2% 91%  
78 7% 89%  
79 16% 82%  
80 2% 66%  
81 26% 64%  
82 31% 38% Median
83 0.9% 7%  
84 4% 6%  
85 0.8% 2% Majority
86 0.2% 0.8%  
87 0.2% 0.7%  
88 0.1% 0.5%  
89 0.3% 0.4%  
90 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0% 99.9%  
64 0% 99.9%  
65 0% 99.9%  
66 0.3% 99.9%  
67 8% 99.6%  
68 17% 92%  
69 0.8% 75%  
70 0.7% 74%  
71 5% 73% Median
72 24% 68%  
73 2% 44%  
74 10% 42%  
75 1.2% 33%  
76 21% 31%  
77 3% 11%  
78 1.2% 8%  
79 1.5% 6%  
80 2% 5%  
81 0.7% 3%  
82 0.5% 2%  
83 0.1% 2%  
84 0.2% 1.5%  
85 1.3% 1.3% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0% 99.9%  
63 0% 99.9%  
64 0% 99.9%  
65 0.3% 99.8%  
66 9% 99.5%  
67 16% 91%  
68 0.5% 75%  
69 2% 74%  
70 3% 73% Median
71 25% 69%  
72 2% 44%  
73 10% 41%  
74 16% 32%  
75 5% 16%  
76 3% 10%  
77 1.1% 7%  
78 1.3% 6%  
79 3% 5%  
80 0.2% 2%  
81 0.5% 2%  
82 0.1% 2%  
83 0.1% 1.4%  
84 1.3% 1.3%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.2% 99.8%  
62 0.1% 99.6%  
63 0.3% 99.5%  
64 8% 99.2%  
65 17% 91%  
66 0.7% 74%  
67 2% 73%  
68 24% 71% Median
69 6% 47%  
70 1.2% 41%  
71 8% 40%  
72 19% 32%  
73 6% 13%  
74 0.6% 8%  
75 2% 7%  
76 3% 6%  
77 1.2% 3%  
78 1.1% 1.4%  
79 0.2% 0.3%  
80 0% 0.1% Last Result
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
61 0.1% 99.8%  
62 0.2% 99.7%  
63 2% 99.5%  
64 3% 97%  
65 2% 95%  
66 2% 92%  
67 7% 91%  
68 2% 83%  
69 17% 81%  
70 1.1% 64%  
71 9% 63%  
72 23% 54% Median
73 24% 31%  
74 5% 6%  
75 0.9% 2%  
76 0.2% 0.8%  
77 0.1% 0.6%  
78 0.4% 0.5%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.3% 99.8%  
59 0.5% 99.5%  
60 0.2% 99.0%  
61 1.1% 98.8%  
62 9% 98%  
63 17% 89%  
64 16% 71%  
65 3% 55%  
66 24% 52% Median
67 6% 28%  
68 3% 23%  
69 9% 19%  
70 3% 11%  
71 5% 8%  
72 0.1% 3% Last Result
73 1.2% 3%  
74 1.1% 1.5%  
75 0.2% 0.4%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.2% 100%  
42 8% 99.8%  
43 1.1% 91%  
44 3% 90%  
45 1.2% 88%  
46 1.0% 87% Median
47 41% 86%  
48 4% 45%  
49 2% 41%  
50 8% 39%  
51 7% 31%  
52 17% 24%  
53 1.4% 7%  
54 2% 5%  
55 0.6% 4%  
56 0.4% 3%  
57 0.9% 3%  
58 0.5% 2%  
59 1.3% 1.4%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0.1% Last Result
62 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100%  
21 0.6% 99.8%  
22 0.4% 99.2%  
23 0.3% 98.8%  
24 2% 98.5%  
25 28% 97%  
26 4% 69% Median
27 32% 65%  
28 6% 32%  
29 1.1% 26%  
30 1.0% 25%  
31 2% 24%  
32 16% 22%  
33 2% 6%  
34 3% 5%  
35 0.7% 2% Last Result
36 0.7% 1.0%  
37 0.2% 0.3%  
38 0% 0.2%  
39 0% 0.1%  
40 0% 0.1%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations