Opinion Poll by Norstat, 20–25 November 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 29.7% 27.8–31.7% 27.3–32.2% 26.8–32.7% 26.0–33.7%
Høyre 25.0% 24.7% 22.9–26.5% 22.4–27.1% 22.0–27.5% 21.2–28.4%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 13.1% 11.8–14.6% 11.4–15.0% 11.1–15.4% 10.5–16.2%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 11.4% 10.1–12.8% 9.8–13.2% 9.5–13.6% 8.9–14.3%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.7–8.5% 5.5–8.8% 5.1–9.4%
Rødt 2.4% 3.3% 2.7–4.2% 2.5–4.5% 2.3–4.7% 2.1–5.2%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.2% 2.6–4.1% 2.4–4.3% 2.3–4.6% 2.0–5.0%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 2.8% 2.2–3.6% 2.0–3.9% 1.9–4.1% 1.7–4.5%
Venstre 4.4% 2.8% 2.2–3.6% 2.0–3.9% 1.9–4.1% 1.7–4.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 55 51–59 50–60 49–61 48–63
Høyre 45 46 42–49 42–50 41–51 39–53
Fremskrittspartiet 27 25 22–27 21–28 20–29 19–30
Senterpartiet 19 21 19–24 18–25 17–25 16–27
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 13 11–15 11–16 10–16 9–17
Rødt 1 2 1–8 1–8 1–9 1–9
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 2 1–7 1–8 0–8 0–9
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 1 1–2 1–3 1–7 0–8
Venstre 8 2 1–2 1–2 1–8 0–8

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.3% 99.9%  
48 0.6% 99.6%  
49 2% 99.0% Last Result
50 2% 97%  
51 6% 95%  
52 7% 89%  
53 6% 82%  
54 9% 77%  
55 22% 68% Median
56 9% 45%  
57 14% 36%  
58 9% 23%  
59 7% 13%  
60 2% 6%  
61 2% 4%  
62 1.3% 2%  
63 0.5% 0.7%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.3% 99.9%  
39 0.7% 99.7%  
40 1.2% 99.0%  
41 3% 98%  
42 5% 95%  
43 8% 90%  
44 12% 82%  
45 15% 70% Last Result
46 13% 55% Median
47 13% 42%  
48 11% 29%  
49 10% 18%  
50 4% 9%  
51 3% 5%  
52 1.1% 2%  
53 0.4% 0.8%  
54 0.3% 0.4%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.5% 99.9%  
20 2% 99.3%  
21 5% 97%  
22 12% 92%  
23 15% 81%  
24 12% 66%  
25 27% 54% Median
26 13% 27%  
27 7% 14% Last Result
28 4% 6%  
29 2% 3%  
30 0.9% 1.2%  
31 0.2% 0.3%  
32 0% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.7% 99.9%  
17 2% 99.2%  
18 7% 97%  
19 8% 90% Last Result
20 19% 83%  
21 16% 63% Median
22 20% 47%  
23 13% 27%  
24 7% 14%  
25 6% 7%  
26 1.2% 2%  
27 0.4% 0.5%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 0.9% 99.9%  
10 3% 99.0%  
11 9% 96% Last Result
12 22% 87%  
13 27% 65% Median
14 21% 38%  
15 8% 17%  
16 8% 10%  
17 1.2% 2%  
18 0.2% 0.4%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 19% 100% Last Result
2 65% 81% Median
3 0% 15%  
4 0% 15%  
5 0% 15%  
6 0% 15%  
7 3% 15%  
8 10% 12%  
9 2% 3%  
10 0.3% 0.4%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 37% 97%  
2 29% 60% Median
3 20% 31%  
4 0% 11%  
5 0% 11%  
6 0% 11%  
7 2% 11%  
8 8% 9% Last Result
9 2% 2%  
10 0.1% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 53% 98% Last Result, Median
2 39% 45%  
3 2% 6%  
4 0.1% 4%  
5 0% 4%  
6 0% 4%  
7 2% 4%  
8 1.5% 2%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 17% 98%  
2 77% 82% Median
3 0.7% 4%  
4 0% 3%  
5 0% 3%  
6 0% 3%  
7 0.6% 3%  
8 3% 3% Last Result
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 96 100% 91–100 90–102 89–103 87–105
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 95 99.7% 90–99 88–99 88–100 86–103
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 94 99.6% 89–98 89–99 87–100 85–102
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 93 98.8% 88–97 87–98 86–99 84–101
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 91 97% 87–96 86–97 84–98 81–100
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 90 94% 85–94 84–95 82–96 80–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 81 13% 76–85 75–86 74–87 72–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 79 5% 75–83 73–85 73–86 71–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 77 0.9% 72–81 71–82 70–83 68–85
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre 89 76 1.2% 72–81 71–82 70–83 68–85
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 74 0.2% 70–79 70–81 68–81 66–83
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 62 73 0% 69–78 67–79 66–80 64–82
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 72 0% 68–77 67–78 66–79 64–81
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 70 0% 66–74 65–76 64–77 62–78
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 69 0% 64–72 63–73 62–75 60–76
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 50 0% 47–55 45–56 45–57 43–59
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 25 0% 23–30 22–31 21–32 19–35

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0.2% 99.9%  
87 0.3% 99.7%  
88 0.8% 99.4%  
89 1.3% 98.5%  
90 3% 97%  
91 5% 94%  
92 4% 89%  
93 4% 85%  
94 11% 81%  
95 16% 70%  
96 11% 55% Median
97 8% 44%  
98 12% 35%  
99 7% 23%  
100 7% 17%  
101 3% 10%  
102 3% 6%  
103 2% 3%  
104 0.5% 1.3%  
105 0.6% 0.8%  
106 0.1% 0.2%  
107 0% 0.1% Last Result
108 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0.1% 99.8%  
85 0.2% 99.7% Majority
86 0.6% 99.6%  
87 0.9% 99.0%  
88 4% 98%  
89 3% 95%  
90 8% 92%  
91 10% 84%  
92 10% 73% Median
93 5% 63%  
94 3% 58%  
95 13% 55%  
96 16% 42%  
97 11% 26%  
98 5% 16%  
99 6% 10%  
100 2% 5%  
101 1.5% 2%  
102 0.4% 1.0%  
103 0.4% 0.6%  
104 0.1% 0.3%  
105 0.1% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0.1% 100%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0.2% 99.9%  
85 0.5% 99.6% Majority
86 0.8% 99.1%  
87 2% 98%  
88 1.4% 97% Last Result
89 6% 95%  
90 6% 89%  
91 7% 83%  
92 11% 77% Median
93 9% 66%  
94 8% 57%  
95 15% 49%  
96 15% 34%  
97 6% 19%  
98 6% 13%  
99 4% 8%  
100 2% 4%  
101 1.0% 2%  
102 0.8% 1.2%  
103 0.3% 0.4%  
104 0.1% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.1% 99.8%  
84 0.8% 99.6%  
85 1.2% 98.8% Majority
86 2% 98%  
87 4% 96%  
88 8% 92%  
89 4% 84%  
90 10% 79%  
91 11% 70% Median
92 4% 59%  
93 8% 54%  
94 15% 46%  
95 9% 31%  
96 11% 22%  
97 5% 11%  
98 3% 7%  
99 1.1% 3%  
100 1.2% 2%  
101 0.4% 0.8%  
102 0.3% 0.4%  
103 0.1% 0.1%  
104 0.1% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.1% 100% Last Result
81 0.5% 99.9%  
82 0.7% 99.4%  
83 0.5% 98.8%  
84 1.2% 98%  
85 1.2% 97% Majority
86 4% 96%  
87 3% 92%  
88 9% 89%  
89 11% 79%  
90 8% 68% Median
91 12% 60%  
92 3% 49%  
93 12% 46%  
94 14% 34%  
95 9% 20%  
96 5% 11%  
97 4% 6%  
98 1.3% 3%  
99 0.8% 1.3%  
100 0.4% 0.6%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
80 0.7% 99.8%  
81 0.4% 99.1%  
82 1.4% 98.7%  
83 2% 97%  
84 2% 95%  
85 5% 94% Majority
86 8% 89%  
87 9% 81%  
88 9% 73%  
89 10% 64% Median
90 9% 54%  
91 7% 45%  
92 15% 38%  
93 7% 24%  
94 10% 16%  
95 2% 7%  
96 3% 4%  
97 0.8% 2%  
98 0.4% 0.7%  
99 0.3% 0.3%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.2% 99.9%  
72 0.5% 99.7%  
73 0.8% 99.2%  
74 2% 98%  
75 3% 97%  
76 4% 94%  
77 6% 90% Last Result
78 7% 84%  
79 12% 77% Median
80 13% 65%  
81 11% 52%  
82 10% 41%  
83 11% 31%  
84 7% 20%  
85 4% 13% Majority
86 5% 9%  
87 2% 4%  
88 1.0% 2%  
89 0.5% 1.1%  
90 0.3% 0.5%  
91 0.2% 0.2%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.2% 99.8%  
71 0.9% 99.6%  
72 0.9% 98.7%  
73 3% 98%  
74 4% 95%  
75 5% 91%  
76 8% 86% Last Result
77 5% 78%  
78 13% 73% Median
79 18% 60%  
80 7% 42%  
81 16% 35%  
82 5% 20%  
83 6% 15%  
84 4% 9%  
85 3% 5% Majority
86 2% 3%  
87 0.8% 1.4%  
88 0.3% 0.6%  
89 0.2% 0.3%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.2% 100%  
67 0.2% 99.8%  
68 0.6% 99.6% Last Result
69 1.1% 99.1%  
70 2% 98%  
71 2% 96%  
72 6% 94%  
73 8% 88%  
74 8% 80%  
75 8% 73%  
76 6% 64% Median
77 18% 59%  
78 11% 41%  
79 12% 30%  
80 6% 18%  
81 4% 13%  
82 5% 8%  
83 2% 3%  
84 0.7% 2%  
85 0.7% 0.9% Majority
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.3% 99.9%  
68 0.4% 99.6%  
69 1.2% 99.2%  
70 1.1% 98%  
71 3% 97%  
72 5% 93%  
73 11% 89%  
74 9% 78%  
75 15% 69%  
76 8% 54% Median
77 4% 45%  
78 11% 41%  
79 10% 30%  
80 4% 21%  
81 8% 16%  
82 4% 8%  
83 2% 4%  
84 1.2% 2%  
85 0.8% 1.2% Majority
86 0.1% 0.4%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.4% 99.7%  
67 0.4% 99.4%  
68 1.5% 99.0%  
69 2% 97%  
70 6% 95%  
71 5% 90%  
72 11% 84%  
73 16% 73%  
74 13% 58%  
75 3% 45% Median
76 5% 42%  
77 10% 37%  
78 10% 27%  
79 8% 16%  
80 3% 8%  
81 4% 5%  
82 0.9% 2%  
83 0.6% 1.0%  
84 0.2% 0.4%  
85 0.1% 0.2% Majority
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100% Last Result
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.6% 99.8%  
65 0.5% 99.2%  
66 2% 98.7%  
67 3% 97%  
68 3% 94%  
69 7% 90%  
70 7% 83%  
71 12% 77% Median
72 8% 65%  
73 11% 56%  
74 16% 45%  
75 11% 30%  
76 4% 19%  
77 4% 15%  
78 5% 11%  
79 3% 5%  
80 1.2% 3%  
81 0.8% 1.4%  
82 0.3% 0.6%  
83 0.2% 0.3%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.3% 99.9%  
64 0.7% 99.6%  
65 0.9% 98.9%  
66 2% 98%  
67 3% 96%  
68 5% 93%  
69 6% 88%  
70 6% 81%  
71 17% 75%  
72 15% 58%  
73 8% 43% Median
74 6% 34%  
75 9% 28%  
76 9% 20%  
77 4% 11%  
78 4% 7%  
79 1.2% 3%  
80 0.9% 2% Last Result
81 0.3% 0.6%  
82 0.2% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.3% 99.9%  
62 0.5% 99.6%  
63 1.1% 99.1%  
64 2% 98%  
65 3% 96%  
66 5% 93%  
67 6% 87%  
68 7% 82%  
69 13% 75%  
70 16% 62%  
71 10% 46% Median
72 8% 35% Last Result
73 9% 27%  
74 8% 18%  
75 4% 10%  
76 3% 6%  
77 2% 3%  
78 0.4% 0.9%  
79 0.2% 0.5%  
80 0.2% 0.2%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.8% 99.8% Last Result
61 1.0% 99.0%  
62 2% 98%  
63 2% 96%  
64 5% 94%  
65 6% 89%  
66 7% 83%  
67 14% 77%  
68 12% 63% Median
69 10% 51%  
70 14% 42%  
71 12% 27%  
72 7% 15%  
73 4% 8%  
74 2% 5%  
75 1.1% 3%  
76 0.9% 1.4%  
77 0.2% 0.5%  
78 0.2% 0.2%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0% 100%  
42 0.3% 99.9%  
43 0.3% 99.6%  
44 1.1% 99.3%  
45 3% 98%  
46 4% 95%  
47 9% 91%  
48 17% 83%  
49 10% 66%  
50 9% 55% Median
51 10% 46%  
52 10% 37%  
53 8% 26%  
54 7% 18%  
55 4% 11%  
56 2% 7%  
57 3% 5%  
58 0.9% 2%  
59 0.3% 0.7%  
60 0.1% 0.4%  
61 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0% 100%  
19 0.5% 99.9%  
20 0.8% 99.5%  
21 3% 98.6%  
22 4% 96%  
23 16% 92%  
24 10% 76%  
25 18% 67% Median
26 17% 48%  
27 8% 31%  
28 6% 23%  
29 6% 17%  
30 5% 11%  
31 2% 7%  
32 2% 4%  
33 1.0% 2%  
34 0.6% 1.2%  
35 0.4% 0.6% Last Result
36 0.2% 0.2%  
37 0% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations