Opinion Poll by Kantar TNS, 3 December 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 27.6% 25.5–29.8% 24.9–30.4% 24.4–30.9% 23.5–32.0%
Høyre 25.0% 24.9% 22.9–27.1% 22.4–27.7% 21.9–28.2% 21.0–29.3%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 14.0% 12.5–15.8% 12.0–16.3% 11.6–16.7% 10.9–17.6%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 12.0% 10.6–13.7% 10.2–14.2% 9.9–14.6% 9.2–15.5%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 6.4% 5.3–7.7% 5.0–8.1% 4.8–8.4% 4.4–9.1%
Rødt 2.4% 4.8% 4.0–6.0% 3.7–6.4% 3.5–6.7% 3.1–7.3%
Venstre 4.4% 3.6% 2.9–4.7% 2.6–5.0% 2.5–5.2% 2.1–5.8%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.0% 2.4–4.0% 2.2–4.3% 2.0–4.6% 1.7–5.1%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 2.8% 2.1–3.7% 2.0–4.0% 1.8–4.3% 1.5–4.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 51 47–53 46–53 45–54 42–57
Høyre 45 43 40–49 40–49 40–53 38–53
Fremskrittspartiet 27 25 23–27 22–27 21–30 19–31
Senterpartiet 19 21 19–23 19–24 18–26 17–27
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 10 10–14 9–15 9–15 8–16
Rødt 1 9 8–11 2–11 2–12 1–13
Venstre 8 2 2–8 2–8 2–9 1–10
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 2 1–7 1–7 0–8 0–9
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 2 1–2 0–3 0–3 0–8

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0.3% 99.9%  
42 0.4% 99.6%  
43 0.6% 99.2%  
44 0.7% 98.6%  
45 2% 98%  
46 5% 96%  
47 5% 91%  
48 7% 87%  
49 13% 80% Last Result
50 14% 67%  
51 17% 53% Median
52 6% 36%  
53 27% 30%  
54 2% 4%  
55 1.3% 2%  
56 0.6% 1.1%  
57 0.3% 0.5%  
58 0.1% 0.3%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.8%  
38 1.2% 99.6%  
39 0.8% 98%  
40 15% 98%  
41 2% 83%  
42 3% 81%  
43 29% 77% Median
44 5% 48%  
45 12% 43% Last Result
46 10% 31%  
47 9% 20%  
48 1.0% 11%  
49 6% 10%  
50 0.4% 5%  
51 0.1% 4%  
52 0.6% 4%  
53 4% 4%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.9% 100%  
20 0.9% 99.1%  
21 2% 98%  
22 2% 96%  
23 8% 95%  
24 13% 87%  
25 26% 74% Median
26 15% 49%  
27 29% 34% Last Result
28 1.0% 5%  
29 0.9% 4%  
30 1.0% 3%  
31 2% 2%  
32 0.2% 0.4%  
33 0.1% 0.2%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.3% 99.9%  
17 1.2% 99.6%  
18 3% 98%  
19 22% 96% Last Result
20 18% 74%  
21 9% 56% Median
22 34% 47%  
23 6% 13%  
24 3% 7%  
25 2% 5%  
26 2% 3%  
27 0.3% 0.6%  
28 0.2% 0.3%  
29 0% 0.1%  
30 0% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 2% 99.8%  
9 5% 98%  
10 44% 92% Median
11 24% 48% Last Result
12 4% 25%  
13 8% 20%  
14 7% 12%  
15 4% 5%  
16 0.5% 0.9%  
17 0.4% 0.4%  
18 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 1.1% 100% Last Result
2 6% 98.9%  
3 0% 93%  
4 0% 93%  
5 0% 93%  
6 0% 93%  
7 2% 93%  
8 30% 91%  
9 37% 61% Median
10 5% 25%  
11 17% 19%  
12 2% 3%  
13 0.4% 0.7%  
14 0.3% 0.3%  
15 0% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 2% 99.9%  
2 66% 98% Median
3 1.5% 32%  
4 0% 31%  
5 0% 31%  
6 0% 31%  
7 16% 31%  
8 12% 15% Last Result
9 3% 3%  
10 0.6% 0.8%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 40% 97%  
2 7% 57% Median
3 30% 49%  
4 0% 19%  
5 0% 19%  
6 0% 19%  
7 15% 19%  
8 2% 4% Last Result
9 2% 2%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 9% 100%  
1 30% 91% Last Result
2 54% 61% Median
3 5% 7%  
4 0% 2%  
5 0% 2%  
6 0% 2%  
7 0.6% 2%  
8 0.9% 1.1%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 96 100% 95–101 93–102 92–105 89–108
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 93 99.2% 87–96 87–97 87–98 83–101
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 92 98% 87–94 87–95 85–97 82–100
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 88 79% 82–89 82–92 81–96 79–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 84 49% 80–87 79–88 79–91 76–95
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 83 39% 79–85 79–86 79–88 73–92
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 77 2% 75–82 74–82 72–84 69–87
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 77 0.5% 71–78 71–81 68–84 67–85
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 76 0.8% 73–82 72–82 71–82 68–86
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 75 0.1% 71–76 70–78 67–82 65–83
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 72 0.2% 71–79 69–79 66–80 65–82
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 70 0% 65–73 65–75 63–77 60–78
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 71 0% 68–75 67–75 66–76 62–80
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 61 0% 58–64 57–66 56–66 53–70
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 50 0% 46–57 46–57 45–58 43–61
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 26 0% 25–33 24–33 23–35 20–40

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0.3% 100%  
87 0% 99.7%  
88 0.1% 99.6%  
89 0.1% 99.6%  
90 0.4% 99.5%  
91 0.6% 99.1%  
92 3% 98%  
93 2% 96% Median
94 3% 94%  
95 27% 91%  
96 18% 64%  
97 4% 46%  
98 14% 42%  
99 6% 28%  
100 4% 23%  
101 10% 19%  
102 4% 9%  
103 1.0% 4%  
104 0.2% 3%  
105 0.9% 3%  
106 1.0% 2%  
107 0.3% 1.0% Last Result
108 0.5% 0.8%  
109 0.1% 0.2%  
110 0.1% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0.1% 100% Last Result
82 0.2% 99.9%  
83 0.4% 99.7%  
84 0.1% 99.3%  
85 0.1% 99.2% Majority
86 1.1% 99.1%  
87 9% 98%  
88 4% 89%  
89 4% 85%  
90 14% 81%  
91 1.5% 67%  
92 7% 66%  
93 12% 59% Median
94 9% 47%  
95 3% 38%  
96 29% 35%  
97 3% 6%  
98 1.3% 3%  
99 0.4% 2%  
100 0.3% 1.5%  
101 0.8% 1.2%  
102 0.1% 0.4%  
103 0% 0.3%  
104 0% 0.3%  
105 0% 0.3%  
106 0.3% 0.3%  
107 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100%  
80 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
81 0.3% 99.8%  
82 0.5% 99.5%  
83 0.1% 99.0%  
84 0.8% 98.9%  
85 1.0% 98% Majority
86 1.1% 97%  
87 13% 96%  
88 16% 83%  
89 0.5% 67%  
90 7% 67%  
91 1.3% 60% Median
92 21% 58%  
93 3% 37%  
94 29% 35%  
95 1.1% 6%  
96 2% 4%  
97 1.1% 3%  
98 0.4% 2%  
99 0.6% 1.4%  
100 0.6% 0.8%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0% 99.9%  
76 0.2% 99.9%  
77 0.1% 99.8%  
78 0.1% 99.6%  
79 0.3% 99.5%  
80 0.4% 99.3%  
81 3% 98.8%  
82 7% 96%  
83 6% 89%  
84 4% 83%  
85 12% 79% Majority
86 2% 67% Median
87 5% 65%  
88 35% 60% Last Result
89 15% 25%  
90 3% 10%  
91 0.7% 7%  
92 1.3% 6%  
93 0.4% 5%  
94 0.4% 4%  
95 1.2% 4%  
96 2% 3%  
97 0.1% 0.4%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0.2% 99.9%  
75 0.2% 99.7%  
76 0.1% 99.6%  
77 0.4% 99.4%  
78 0.4% 99.0%  
79 7% 98.7%  
80 5% 91% Last Result
81 7% 86%  
82 26% 79%  
83 1.0% 54%  
84 4% 53% Median
85 6% 49% Majority
86 5% 43%  
87 33% 38%  
88 0.4% 5%  
89 2% 5%  
90 0.2% 3%  
91 0.4% 3%  
92 0.4% 2%  
93 0.3% 2%  
94 0.2% 2%  
95 1.2% 1.5%  
96 0.2% 0.3%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.5% 99.8%  
74 0.1% 99.3%  
75 0.3% 99.3%  
76 0.7% 99.0%  
77 0.5% 98%  
78 0.2% 98%  
79 16% 98% Last Result
80 17% 82%  
81 11% 64%  
82 3% 53% Median
83 7% 51%  
84 5% 43%  
85 31% 39% Majority
86 3% 7%  
87 0.7% 5%  
88 2% 4%  
89 0.3% 2%  
90 0.4% 2%  
91 0.3% 2%  
92 1.1% 1.4%  
93 0.2% 0.3%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.6% 99.9%  
70 0.6% 99.2%  
71 0.4% 98.6%  
72 1.1% 98%  
73 2% 97%  
74 1.1% 96% Median
75 29% 94%  
76 3% 65%  
77 21% 63%  
78 1.3% 42%  
79 7% 40%  
80 0.5% 33%  
81 16% 33%  
82 13% 17%  
83 1.1% 4%  
84 1.0% 3%  
85 0.8% 2% Majority
86 0.1% 1.1%  
87 0.5% 1.0%  
88 0.3% 0.5%  
89 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.2% 99.9%  
66 0.1% 99.7%  
67 0.3% 99.6%  
68 2% 99.4%  
69 0.3% 97%  
70 0.6% 97%  
71 8% 96%  
72 2% 89%  
73 9% 86%  
74 7% 77%  
75 15% 70%  
76 3% 55% Median
77 4% 52% Last Result
78 39% 48%  
79 4% 9%  
80 0.4% 6%  
81 1.5% 5%  
82 0.3% 4%  
83 0.6% 3%  
84 2% 3%  
85 0.3% 0.5% Majority
86 0.1% 0.3%  
87 0.2% 0.2%  
88 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.3% 100%  
64 0% 99.7%  
65 0% 99.7%  
66 0% 99.7%  
67 0.1% 99.7%  
68 0.8% 99.6%  
69 0.3% 98.8%  
70 0.4% 98.5%  
71 1.3% 98%  
72 3% 97% Median
73 29% 94%  
74 3% 65%  
75 9% 62%  
76 12% 53%  
77 7% 41%  
78 1.5% 34%  
79 14% 33%  
80 4% 19%  
81 4% 15%  
82 9% 11%  
83 1.1% 2%  
84 0.1% 0.9%  
85 0.1% 0.8% Majority
86 0.4% 0.7%  
87 0.2% 0.3%  
88 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
89 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.2% 99.9%  
64 0.1% 99.7%  
65 0.6% 99.6%  
66 0.2% 99.0%  
67 2% 98.9%  
68 0.7% 97%  
69 0.6% 97%  
70 2% 96%  
71 13% 94%  
72 9% 80%  
73 5% 71%  
74 13% 66% Median
75 3% 53%  
76 41% 50% Last Result
77 4% 9%  
78 1.3% 5%  
79 0.4% 4%  
80 0.8% 4%  
81 0.2% 3%  
82 1.4% 3%  
83 1.1% 1.4%  
84 0.2% 0.3%  
85 0.1% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.3% 100%  
63 0% 99.7%  
64 0.1% 99.7%  
65 1.1% 99.6%  
66 1.1% 98%  
67 0.9% 97%  
68 0.4% 96%  
69 2% 96%  
70 3% 94% Median
71 3% 91%  
72 44% 88%  
73 14% 44%  
74 3% 30%  
75 7% 27%  
76 1.0% 20%  
77 2% 19%  
78 2% 17%  
79 11% 15%  
80 3% 4% Last Result
81 0.5% 1.0%  
82 0.2% 0.5%  
83 0.1% 0.3%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0.1% 0.2% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.4% 99.9%  
61 0.5% 99.5%  
62 0.2% 99.0%  
63 2% 98.8%  
64 2% 97%  
65 14% 95%  
66 0.7% 82%  
67 4% 81%  
68 4% 77% Median
69 2% 73%  
70 32% 70%  
71 22% 39%  
72 3% 16% Last Result
73 6% 13%  
74 0.8% 8%  
75 3% 7%  
76 0.5% 4%  
77 2% 4%  
78 0.9% 1.1%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.4% 99.9%  
63 0.1% 99.5%  
64 0.7% 99.4%  
65 0.2% 98.7%  
66 2% 98%  
67 2% 96%  
68 8% 94% Last Result
69 23% 86%  
70 7% 63%  
71 14% 56%  
72 6% 42% Median
73 3% 36%  
74 0.8% 33%  
75 29% 33%  
76 1.5% 4%  
77 1.3% 2%  
78 0.1% 1.0%  
79 0.4% 0.9%  
80 0.1% 0.5%  
81 0.2% 0.4%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.3% 99.9%  
53 0.5% 99.6%  
54 0.5% 99.1%  
55 1.0% 98.6%  
56 3% 98%  
57 5% 95%  
58 4% 90%  
59 3% 87%  
60 9% 83% Last Result
61 26% 74% Median
62 9% 48%  
63 25% 38%  
64 4% 13%  
65 4% 10%  
66 3% 6%  
67 0.6% 2%  
68 0.4% 2%  
69 0.4% 1.5%  
70 0.9% 1.1%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0% 100%  
42 0.3% 99.9%  
43 0.8% 99.6%  
44 1.3% 98.8%  
45 1.1% 98%  
46 26% 96%  
47 3% 71% Median
48 4% 68%  
49 2% 63%  
50 14% 62%  
51 2% 47%  
52 6% 45%  
53 6% 39%  
54 15% 34%  
55 3% 19%  
56 5% 17%  
57 9% 12%  
58 2% 3%  
59 0.2% 1.2%  
60 0.5% 1.1%  
61 0.3% 0.6% Last Result
62 0.2% 0.2%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.4% 100%  
20 0.3% 99.5%  
21 0.1% 99.2%  
22 0.4% 99.1%  
23 4% 98.7%  
24 3% 95%  
25 39% 93% Median
26 12% 53%  
27 4% 41%  
28 0.4% 36%  
29 4% 36%  
30 9% 32%  
31 4% 23%  
32 2% 20%  
33 13% 18%  
34 1.0% 4%  
35 1.1% 3% Last Result
36 1.0% 2%  
37 0.1% 1.2%  
38 0.3% 1.1%  
39 0.3% 0.8%  
40 0.1% 0.5%  
41 0.4% 0.4%  
42 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations