Opinion Poll by Respons Analyse, 29 November–4 December 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 26.0% 24.3–27.8% 23.8–28.4% 23.4–28.8% 22.6–29.7%
Høyre 25.0% 25.7% 24.0–27.5% 23.5–28.1% 23.1–28.5% 22.3–29.4%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 13.5% 12.2–15.0% 11.8–15.4% 11.5–15.8% 10.9–16.5%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 10.5% 9.3–11.8% 9.0–12.2% 8.7–12.6% 8.2–13.2%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 8.8% 7.7–10.1% 7.4–10.4% 7.2–10.7% 6.7–11.4%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–6.0%
Rødt 2.4% 3.9% 3.2–4.8% 3.0–5.1% 2.9–5.3% 2.6–5.8%
Venstre 4.4% 3.4% 2.8–4.3% 2.6–4.5% 2.4–4.7% 2.2–5.2%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 2.4% 1.9–3.2% 1.7–3.4% 1.6–3.6% 1.4–3.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 47 44–52 43–53 42–53 41–56
Høyre 45 47 43–51 43–52 42–52 40–54
Fremskrittspartiet 27 25 22–28 22–28 21–29 19–30
Senterpartiet 19 19 17–22 16–23 16–23 15–25
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 16 14–18 14–19 13–20 12–21
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 3–9 3–10 2–10 1–11
Rødt 1 2 2–9 2–9 1–10 1–10
Venstre 8 2 2–8 2–8 1–9 1–9
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–3

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.2% 100%  
41 0.5% 99.8%  
42 2% 99.3%  
43 3% 97%  
44 10% 94%  
45 9% 84%  
46 11% 75%  
47 22% 64% Median
48 12% 42%  
49 9% 31% Last Result
50 4% 21%  
51 6% 18%  
52 6% 12%  
53 4% 6%  
54 0.6% 2%  
55 0.3% 1.3%  
56 0.9% 1.0%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 0.5% 99.8%  
41 0.9% 99.3%  
42 3% 98%  
43 8% 95%  
44 10% 88%  
45 10% 78% Last Result
46 10% 68%  
47 19% 59% Median
48 6% 40%  
49 10% 34%  
50 12% 24%  
51 5% 11%  
52 4% 6%  
53 2% 2%  
54 0.6% 0.8%  
55 0.1% 0.2%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.4% 99.9%  
20 1.0% 99.5%  
21 3% 98%  
22 8% 95%  
23 12% 87%  
24 18% 75%  
25 20% 58% Median
26 15% 38%  
27 13% 23% Last Result
28 8% 11%  
29 2% 3%  
30 0.6% 1.0%  
31 0.3% 0.4%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.2% 100%  
15 1.1% 99.8%  
16 4% 98.7%  
17 11% 95%  
18 15% 83%  
19 26% 69% Last Result, Median
20 20% 43%  
21 8% 23%  
22 6% 15%  
23 8% 9%  
24 0.7% 1.3%  
25 0.5% 0.5%  
26 0% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.2% 100% Last Result
12 0.9% 99.7%  
13 3% 98.8%  
14 10% 95%  
15 18% 86%  
16 25% 68% Median
17 18% 43%  
18 16% 25%  
19 5% 9%  
20 3% 4%  
21 0.3% 0.6%  
22 0.3% 0.3%  
23 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100%  
2 1.5% 98%  
3 51% 97% Median
4 0% 46%  
5 0% 46%  
6 0% 46%  
7 9% 46%  
8 23% 37% Last Result
9 7% 14%  
10 6% 7%  
11 1.0% 1.1%  
12 0% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 3% 100% Last Result
2 53% 97% Median
3 0% 43%  
4 0% 43%  
5 0% 43%  
6 0% 43%  
7 7% 43%  
8 25% 36%  
9 9% 12%  
10 3% 3%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 3% 100%  
2 82% 97% Median
3 0.8% 15%  
4 0% 14%  
5 0% 14%  
6 0% 14%  
7 3% 14%  
8 8% 11% Last Result
9 2% 3%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 10% 100%  
1 77% 90% Last Result, Median
2 12% 13%  
3 0.3% 0.7%  
4 0% 0.4%  
5 0% 0.4%  
6 0% 0.4%  
7 0.2% 0.4%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 100 100% 95–104 94–105 93–106 91–109
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 90 90% 85–94 83–95 83–96 80–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 89 88% 84–93 83–95 82–95 80–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 88 79% 83–92 82–94 80–94 79–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 84 41% 80–89 79–90 77–91 75–93
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 83 35% 79–87 77–89 76–90 74–92
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 81 21% 77–86 75–87 75–89 73–90
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 80 12% 76–85 74–86 74–87 72–89
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 75 0.2% 70–80 69–81 67–82 66–84
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 73 0% 68–78 67–79 67–80 64–83
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 73 0% 67–77 66–78 66–79 63–82
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 72 0% 68–76 66–78 65–79 64–81
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 62 69 0% 65–74 64–75 63–76 60–78
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 66 0% 63–71 62–72 61–74 59–75
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 63 0% 60–68 59–69 58–70 56–71
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 55 0% 51–60 50–62 49–63 48–65
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 28 0% 24–32 23–34 22–35 21–37

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 99.9%  
90 0.2% 99.9%  
91 0.2% 99.7%  
92 2% 99.5%  
93 2% 98%  
94 3% 96%  
95 5% 92%  
96 10% 88% Median
97 11% 78%  
98 6% 67%  
99 10% 61%  
100 11% 50%  
101 7% 39%  
102 8% 32%  
103 9% 23%  
104 6% 15%  
105 4% 8%  
106 2% 5%  
107 1.2% 2% Last Result
108 0.8% 1.3%  
109 0.4% 0.5%  
110 0.1% 0.1%  
111 0% 0.1%  
112 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.5% 99.9%  
81 0.3% 99.4%  
82 1.0% 99.0%  
83 4% 98%  
84 4% 94%  
85 2% 90% Majority
86 3% 88% Median
87 15% 84%  
88 8% 69% Last Result
89 6% 62%  
90 12% 56%  
91 16% 44%  
92 9% 27%  
93 4% 18%  
94 8% 14%  
95 3% 7%  
96 2% 4%  
97 0.5% 2%  
98 1.3% 2%  
99 0.3% 0.4%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.1% 99.8%  
80 1.0% 99.7%  
81 1.1% 98.8% Last Result
82 2% 98%  
83 3% 96%  
84 5% 93%  
85 10% 88% Median, Majority
86 9% 79%  
87 7% 70%  
88 9% 64%  
89 8% 55%  
90 13% 46%  
91 7% 34%  
92 14% 27%  
93 4% 13%  
94 2% 10%  
95 6% 8%  
96 0.9% 2%  
97 0.7% 1.0%  
98 0.1% 0.3%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.1% 99.8%  
79 1.0% 99.7%  
80 1.3% 98.7% Last Result
81 1.5% 97%  
82 2% 96%  
83 5% 94%  
84 10% 89% Median
85 9% 79% Majority
86 5% 70%  
87 10% 65%  
88 9% 55%  
89 16% 46%  
90 5% 30%  
91 12% 25%  
92 4% 13%  
93 1.3% 9%  
94 6% 8%  
95 0.7% 2%  
96 0.6% 0.9%  
97 0.1% 0.3%  
98 0% 0.2%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.6% 99.8%  
76 0.7% 99.2%  
77 2% 98.5%  
78 2% 97%  
79 4% 95%  
80 8% 91% Last Result
81 7% 83%  
82 6% 76%  
83 14% 70% Median
84 16% 57%  
85 5% 41% Majority
86 5% 35%  
87 8% 30%  
88 10% 22%  
89 5% 12%  
90 2% 6%  
91 2% 4%  
92 0.4% 1.4%  
93 0.5% 1.0%  
94 0.2% 0.4%  
95 0.2% 0.2%  
96 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0.2% 99.9%  
74 0.6% 99.8%  
75 0.6% 99.2%  
76 1.1% 98.6%  
77 3% 97%  
78 4% 95%  
79 7% 91% Last Result
80 7% 84%  
81 7% 77%  
82 15% 70% Median
83 15% 55%  
84 4% 40%  
85 5% 35% Majority
86 9% 30%  
87 13% 21%  
88 2% 8%  
89 2% 6%  
90 2% 4%  
91 0.4% 1.4%  
92 0.6% 0.9%  
93 0.1% 0.3%  
94 0.2% 0.2%  
95 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0% 99.9%  
72 0.1% 99.8%  
73 0.6% 99.7%  
74 0.7% 99.1%  
75 6% 98%  
76 1.3% 92%  
77 4% 91%  
78 12% 87% Median
79 5% 75%  
80 16% 70%  
81 9% 54%  
82 10% 45%  
83 5% 35%  
84 9% 30%  
85 10% 21% Majority
86 5% 11%  
87 2% 6%  
88 1.5% 4%  
89 1.3% 3% Last Result
90 1.0% 1.3%  
91 0.1% 0.3%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.1% 99.8%  
72 0.7% 99.7%  
73 0.9% 99.0%  
74 6% 98%  
75 2% 92%  
76 4% 90%  
77 14% 87% Median
78 7% 73%  
79 13% 66%  
80 8% 54%  
81 9% 45%  
82 7% 36%  
83 9% 30%  
84 10% 21%  
85 5% 12% Majority
86 3% 7%  
87 2% 4%  
88 1.1% 2% Last Result
89 1.0% 1.2%  
90 0.1% 0.3%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.5% 99.8%  
67 2% 99.3%  
68 0.9% 97%  
69 3% 96%  
70 6% 93%  
71 7% 88%  
72 8% 81%  
73 7% 74%  
74 14% 66% Median
75 8% 53%  
76 16% 44%  
77 7% 28%  
78 6% 21%  
79 3% 15%  
80 7% 12% Last Result
81 3% 5%  
82 0.9% 3%  
83 1.1% 2%  
84 0.3% 0.5%  
85 0.2% 0.2% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.3% 99.8%  
65 0.9% 99.5%  
66 1.0% 98.6%  
67 3% 98%  
68 4% 94%  
69 7% 90%  
70 8% 83% Median
71 3% 75%  
72 9% 72%  
73 13% 63%  
74 13% 50%  
75 11% 37%  
76 10% 26%  
77 5% 16% Last Result
78 3% 11%  
79 4% 8%  
80 2% 4%  
81 0.8% 2%  
82 0.6% 1.3%  
83 0.6% 0.8%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.3% 99.8%  
64 0.9% 99.5%  
65 1.0% 98.6%  
66 3% 98%  
67 5% 95%  
68 7% 90%  
69 7% 83% Median
70 3% 75%  
71 9% 72%  
72 12% 63%  
73 14% 51%  
74 15% 37%  
75 7% 22%  
76 4% 15% Last Result
77 3% 11%  
78 3% 8%  
79 2% 4%  
80 1.0% 2%  
81 0.3% 1.1%  
82 0.6% 0.7%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0% 99.9%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.2% 99.8%  
64 0.7% 99.5%  
65 3% 98.8%  
66 1.3% 96%  
67 4% 95%  
68 7% 91%  
69 8% 84%  
70 9% 75%  
71 8% 67%  
72 16% 59% Last Result, Median
73 8% 43%  
74 16% 35%  
75 6% 19%  
76 5% 13%  
77 2% 8%  
78 3% 7%  
79 2% 3%  
80 0.1% 1.0%  
81 0.8% 0.9%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.4% 99.9%  
61 0.8% 99.5%  
62 1.2% 98.7% Last Result
63 2% 98%  
64 4% 95%  
65 6% 92%  
66 9% 85% Median
67 8% 77%  
68 7% 68%  
69 11% 61%  
70 10% 50%  
71 6% 39%  
72 11% 33%  
73 10% 22%  
74 5% 12%  
75 3% 8%  
76 2% 4%  
77 2% 2%  
78 0.2% 0.5%  
79 0.2% 0.3%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0.2% 99.9%  
59 0.4% 99.7%  
60 1.2% 99.3%  
61 3% 98%  
62 4% 95%  
63 6% 91%  
64 10% 86%  
65 11% 76%  
66 18% 64% Median
67 4% 46%  
68 10% 42% Last Result
69 10% 32%  
70 7% 22%  
71 8% 15%  
72 2% 7%  
73 2% 5%  
74 1.5% 3%  
75 0.9% 1.4%  
76 0.2% 0.4%  
77 0.2% 0.3%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0.3% 99.9%  
56 0.4% 99.6%  
57 1.0% 99.3%  
58 2% 98%  
59 2% 96%  
60 8% 93% Last Result
61 9% 85%  
62 8% 76%  
63 19% 68% Median
64 14% 49%  
65 7% 36%  
66 9% 29%  
67 6% 20%  
68 8% 14%  
69 2% 6%  
70 2% 4%  
71 2% 2%  
72 0.1% 0.3%  
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.2% 99.8%  
48 0.9% 99.6%  
49 3% 98.7%  
50 4% 96%  
51 6% 91%  
52 15% 86% Median
53 3% 71%  
54 13% 68%  
55 9% 54%  
56 9% 45%  
57 8% 37%  
58 9% 28%  
59 5% 19%  
60 7% 15%  
61 2% 7% Last Result
62 3% 6%  
63 1.4% 3%  
64 0.9% 2%  
65 0.5% 0.9%  
66 0.2% 0.3%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.2% 99.9%  
21 0.9% 99.7%  
22 3% 98.8%  
23 6% 96%  
24 11% 90% Median
25 13% 79%  
26 4% 66%  
27 8% 62%  
28 18% 54%  
29 10% 36%  
30 8% 26%  
31 5% 18%  
32 4% 13%  
33 3% 9%  
34 2% 6%  
35 2% 4% Last Result
36 0.6% 2%  
37 0.9% 1.4%  
38 0.4% 0.5%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations