Opinion Poll by Norfakta, 4–5 December 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 28.4% 26.4–30.6% 25.8–31.2% 25.3–31.7% 24.4–32.8%
Høyre 25.0% 25.9% 24.0–28.0% 23.4–28.6% 22.9–29.2% 22.0–30.2%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 12.0% 10.6–13.6% 10.2–14.1% 9.8–14.5% 9.2–15.3%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 11.6% 10.2–13.2% 9.8–13.7% 9.5–14.1% 8.9–14.9%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.4% 6.3–8.7% 6.0–9.1% 5.7–9.4% 5.2–10.2%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.8% 3.1–4.9% 2.9–5.2% 2.7–5.4% 2.3–6.0%
Rødt 2.4% 3.2% 2.5–4.1% 2.3–4.4% 2.1–4.7% 1.8–5.2%
Venstre 4.4% 3.0% 2.4–4.0% 2.2–4.3% 2.0–4.5% 1.8–5.0%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 2.5% 1.9–3.4% 1.7–3.6% 1.6–3.9% 1.4–4.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 53 48–57 47–59 46–59 44–61
Høyre 45 48 43–51 43–53 42–55 40–55
Fremskrittspartiet 27 22 20–26 19–27 18–27 17–28
Senterpartiet 19 21 19–24 18–25 18–26 16–27
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 14 12–16 11–17 10–18 9–19
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 1–9 1–9 1–10 1–11
Rødt 1 2 1–7 1–8 1–8 1–9
Venstre 8 2 1–7 1–8 1–8 0–9
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 1 1–2 0–2 0–3 0–8

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.2% 100%  
44 0.3% 99.8%  
45 0.7% 99.5%  
46 2% 98.8%  
47 3% 97%  
48 5% 94%  
49 7% 89% Last Result
50 14% 82%  
51 8% 68%  
52 7% 61%  
53 7% 53% Median
54 18% 46%  
55 10% 28%  
56 6% 18%  
57 4% 12%  
58 3% 8%  
59 3% 5%  
60 1.5% 2%  
61 0.5% 0.9%  
62 0.2% 0.4%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 0.5% 99.7%  
41 1.0% 99.2%  
42 2% 98%  
43 6% 96%  
44 6% 89%  
45 4% 83% Last Result
46 17% 79%  
47 8% 62%  
48 12% 54% Median
49 11% 42%  
50 12% 31%  
51 9% 19%  
52 4% 10%  
53 2% 6%  
54 1.3% 4%  
55 3% 3%  
56 0.2% 0.5%  
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0% 100%  
16 0.2% 99.9%  
17 1.0% 99.7%  
18 3% 98.7%  
19 5% 96%  
20 13% 91%  
21 12% 78%  
22 20% 65% Median
23 17% 45%  
24 11% 28%  
25 6% 17%  
26 5% 11%  
27 5% 6% Last Result
28 0.6% 0.9%  
29 0.2% 0.3%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.5% 99.8%  
17 2% 99.4%  
18 6% 98%  
19 14% 92% Last Result
20 13% 77%  
21 18% 64% Median
22 19% 46%  
23 12% 27%  
24 6% 15%  
25 6% 9%  
26 2% 3%  
27 0.8% 1.2%  
28 0.3% 0.4%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0% 100%  
9 0.5% 99.9%  
10 2% 99.5%  
11 7% 97% Last Result
12 15% 90%  
13 20% 75%  
14 31% 55% Median
15 10% 24%  
16 6% 14%  
17 4% 8%  
18 3% 4%  
19 0.4% 0.5%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100%  
1 10% 99.6%  
2 14% 89%  
3 29% 75% Median
4 0% 46%  
5 0% 46%  
6 0% 46%  
7 4% 46%  
8 28% 42% Last Result
9 9% 14%  
10 4% 4%  
11 0.5% 0.6%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 29% 100% Last Result
2 59% 71% Median
3 0% 13%  
4 0% 13%  
5 0% 13%  
6 0% 13%  
7 3% 13%  
8 8% 10%  
9 1.3% 2%  
10 0.3% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.6% 100%  
1 15% 99.4%  
2 71% 84% Median
3 2% 13%  
4 0.1% 11%  
5 0% 11%  
6 0% 11%  
7 1.4% 11%  
8 9% 10% Last Result
9 1.0% 1.1%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 10% 100%  
1 74% 90% Last Result, Median
2 14% 17%  
3 1.0% 3%  
4 0% 2%  
5 0% 2%  
6 0% 2%  
7 0.5% 2%  
8 1.0% 1.1%  
9 0.1% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 99 100% 94–103 93–105 92–106 88–108
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 94 99.2% 89–98 87–100 86–101 84–104
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 91 97% 86–96 85–97 84–99 82–102
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 90 92% 85–95 84–96 83–97 81–101
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 88 85% 84–94 83–95 81–96 79–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 87 80% 82–92 81–94 80–95 78–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 81 12% 76–85 73–87 72–88 71–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 79 9% 74–84 72–85 71–87 69–89
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 79 7% 74–84 73–85 72–86 68–88
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 78 3% 73–83 71–84 70–85 67–87
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 73 0.1% 69–79 68–80 67–81 65–83
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 73 0.1% 68–77 66–79 65–80 63–82
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 62 70 0% 66–75 64–76 63–77 61–81
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 70 0% 65–74 64–75 63–77 60–79
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 67 0% 61–71 60–72 59–73 57–75
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 56 0% 51–60 49–62 47–63 46–65
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 29 0% 24–34 23–35 22–37 21–38

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0.1% 100%  
87 0.1% 99.8%  
88 0.3% 99.8%  
89 0.5% 99.5%  
90 0.5% 98.9%  
91 0.8% 98%  
92 1.3% 98%  
93 2% 96%  
94 6% 94%  
95 4% 88%  
96 6% 84% Median
97 10% 78%  
98 17% 68%  
99 7% 51%  
100 7% 43%  
101 9% 36%  
102 5% 27%  
103 12% 22%  
104 3% 9%  
105 3% 7%  
106 2% 4%  
107 1.2% 2% Last Result
108 0.4% 0.7%  
109 0.2% 0.3%  
110 0.1% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.2% 99.8%  
84 0.4% 99.6%  
85 0.5% 99.2% Majority
86 3% 98.7%  
87 2% 96%  
88 1.4% 94% Last Result
89 5% 92%  
90 6% 87%  
91 6% 81%  
92 8% 75% Median
93 8% 66%  
94 12% 59%  
95 12% 47%  
96 14% 35%  
97 5% 21%  
98 7% 15%  
99 2% 8%  
100 3% 6%  
101 1.0% 3%  
102 1.0% 2%  
103 0.4% 0.9%  
104 0.4% 0.5%  
105 0.1% 0.2%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 99.9%  
80 0.1% 99.9%  
81 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
82 0.8% 99.7%  
83 0.7% 98.9%  
84 2% 98%  
85 3% 97% Majority
86 5% 94%  
87 5% 89%  
88 8% 84%  
89 7% 76%  
90 15% 69%  
91 10% 54% Median
92 5% 44%  
93 11% 39%  
94 7% 27%  
95 4% 20%  
96 7% 15%  
97 3% 8%  
98 2% 5%  
99 0.9% 3%  
100 0.5% 2%  
101 0.9% 1.4%  
102 0.3% 0.6%  
103 0.2% 0.3%  
104 0.1% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.2% 99.8% Last Result
81 0.8% 99.6%  
82 1.1% 98.8%  
83 2% 98%  
84 3% 96%  
85 5% 92% Majority
86 5% 88%  
87 8% 83%  
88 6% 75%  
89 15% 69%  
90 12% 54% Median
91 5% 42%  
92 11% 37%  
93 8% 26%  
94 4% 18%  
95 7% 14%  
96 3% 7%  
97 2% 4%  
98 0.7% 2%  
99 0.3% 2%  
100 0.8% 1.3%  
101 0.4% 0.5%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.2% 99.9%  
79 0.3% 99.7%  
80 0.4% 99.3% Last Result
81 2% 99.0%  
82 2% 97%  
83 5% 96%  
84 5% 90%  
85 3% 85% Majority
86 6% 82%  
87 10% 76%  
88 17% 66%  
89 8% 49% Median
90 8% 40%  
91 10% 33%  
92 5% 23%  
93 7% 17%  
94 4% 11%  
95 3% 7%  
96 2% 4%  
97 0.8% 2%  
98 0.4% 1.2%  
99 0.5% 0.8%  
100 0.2% 0.3%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.1% 99.8%  
78 0.4% 99.6%  
79 0.4% 99.3% Last Result
80 2% 98.8%  
81 2% 97%  
82 6% 95%  
83 4% 89%  
84 5% 85%  
85 5% 80% Majority
86 9% 75%  
87 18% 65%  
88 9% 48% Median
89 7% 38%  
90 9% 31%  
91 6% 22%  
92 6% 16%  
93 4% 10%  
94 3% 6%  
95 2% 3%  
96 0.8% 2%  
97 0.3% 0.9%  
98 0.5% 0.6%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.2% 99.9%  
70 0.2% 99.7%  
71 0.6% 99.6%  
72 2% 98.9%  
73 3% 97%  
74 2% 94%  
75 2% 92%  
76 8% 90%  
77 6% 82% Last Result
78 8% 76% Median
79 7% 67%  
80 9% 60%  
81 13% 51%  
82 14% 38%  
83 4% 24%  
84 8% 20%  
85 2% 12% Majority
86 4% 9%  
87 2% 5%  
88 2% 4%  
89 0.4% 1.2%  
90 0.5% 0.8%  
91 0.2% 0.3%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0% 99.9%  
68 0.2% 99.9%  
69 0.2% 99.7%  
70 0.7% 99.5%  
71 2% 98.8%  
72 3% 97%  
73 3% 94%  
74 2% 91%  
75 7% 89%  
76 8% 82% Last Result
77 9% 75% Median
78 7% 66%  
79 9% 58%  
80 14% 49%  
81 12% 35%  
82 5% 23%  
83 7% 18%  
84 2% 11%  
85 4% 9% Majority
86 1.3% 5%  
87 2% 3%  
88 0.4% 0.9%  
89 0.4% 0.5%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.4% 99.9%  
69 0.8% 99.4%  
70 0.4% 98.6%  
71 0.8% 98%  
72 2% 98%  
73 3% 96%  
74 7% 92%  
75 4% 86%  
76 8% 82% Median
77 11% 74%  
78 5% 63%  
79 12% 58%  
80 15% 46%  
81 6% 31%  
82 8% 25%  
83 5% 17%  
84 5% 12%  
85 3% 7% Majority
86 2% 4%  
87 1.1% 2%  
88 0.8% 1.2%  
89 0.2% 0.4% Last Result
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.2% 99.9%  
67 0.3% 99.7%  
68 0.9% 99.4%  
69 0.5% 98.5%  
70 0.9% 98%  
71 2% 97%  
72 3% 95%  
73 7% 92%  
74 4% 84%  
75 7% 80% Median
76 11% 73%  
77 5% 61%  
78 10% 56%  
79 15% 45%  
80 7% 31%  
81 8% 24%  
82 5% 16%  
83 5% 11%  
84 3% 6%  
85 2% 3% Majority
86 0.7% 2%  
87 0.8% 1.1%  
88 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.2% 99.8%  
65 0.6% 99.6%  
66 0.8% 99.0%  
67 1.3% 98%  
68 3% 97% Last Result
69 7% 93%  
70 4% 87%  
71 7% 83%  
72 12% 77%  
73 15% 65%  
74 10% 50% Median
75 7% 40%  
76 6% 34%  
77 11% 27%  
78 4% 17%  
79 4% 12%  
80 4% 8%  
81 2% 4%  
82 1.2% 2%  
83 0.6% 0.9%  
84 0.2% 0.3%  
85 0% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.2% 99.8%  
63 0.4% 99.7%  
64 0.7% 99.3%  
65 2% 98.6%  
66 2% 97%  
67 4% 95%  
68 3% 91%  
69 3% 88%  
70 10% 85%  
71 15% 75%  
72 6% 60% Median
73 17% 54%  
74 8% 37%  
75 10% 29%  
76 4% 19%  
77 5% 15%  
78 4% 10%  
79 2% 6%  
80 2% 4% Last Result
81 1.5% 2%  
82 0.2% 0.5%  
83 0.1% 0.3%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0.1% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.2% 99.9%  
61 0.4% 99.7%  
62 1.2% 99.3% Last Result
63 2% 98%  
64 3% 96%  
65 3% 93%  
66 12% 90%  
67 5% 78%  
68 9% 73%  
69 7% 64%  
70 7% 56% Median
71 17% 49%  
72 10% 32%  
73 6% 22%  
74 4% 16%  
75 6% 12%  
76 2% 6%  
77 1.3% 4%  
78 0.8% 2%  
79 0.5% 1.5%  
80 0.5% 1.0%  
81 0.3% 0.5%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.5% 99.8%  
61 0.7% 99.3%  
62 0.7% 98.6%  
63 2% 98%  
64 3% 96%  
65 4% 93%  
66 3% 89%  
67 4% 85%  
68 10% 82%  
69 14% 71%  
70 7% 57% Median
71 12% 50%  
72 14% 38% Last Result
73 11% 24%  
74 4% 13%  
75 5% 9%  
76 2% 5%  
77 0.9% 3%  
78 0.8% 2%  
79 0.7% 0.9%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.4% 99.8%  
58 0.9% 99.4%  
59 1.1% 98.5%  
60 3% 97% Last Result
61 5% 95%  
62 3% 90%  
63 7% 87%  
64 14% 80%  
65 7% 66%  
66 9% 59%  
67 8% 50% Median
68 18% 43%  
69 10% 25%  
70 5% 15%  
71 4% 11%  
72 4% 7%  
73 2% 3%  
74 0.5% 2%  
75 0.7% 1.1%  
76 0.3% 0.4%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.2% 99.9%  
46 0.5% 99.7%  
47 2% 99.3%  
48 1.2% 97%  
49 2% 96%  
50 4% 94%  
51 7% 90%  
52 10% 84%  
53 7% 73% Median
54 7% 66%  
55 7% 60%  
56 15% 52%  
57 7% 37%  
58 7% 30%  
59 9% 23%  
60 5% 14%  
61 2% 9% Last Result
62 3% 7%  
63 2% 4%  
64 1.2% 2%  
65 0.4% 0.7%  
66 0.2% 0.3%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.2% 99.9%  
21 0.6% 99.7%  
22 3% 99.1%  
23 4% 96%  
24 4% 93%  
25 9% 89%  
26 10% 79% Median
27 6% 69%  
28 7% 63%  
29 11% 56%  
30 8% 45%  
31 12% 37%  
32 8% 25%  
33 6% 17%  
34 3% 11%  
35 2% 7% Last Result
36 2% 5%  
37 2% 3%  
38 0.4% 0.9%  
39 0.2% 0.5%  
40 0.1% 0.2%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations