Opinion Poll by Opinion Perduco, 4–10 December 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 27.1% 25.0–29.3% 24.4–29.9% 23.9–30.5% 22.9–31.6%
Høyre 25.0% 22.9% 20.9–25.0% 20.4–25.6% 19.9–26.2% 19.0–27.2%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 14.6% 13.0–16.5% 12.6–17.0% 12.2–17.5% 11.4–18.4%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 11.9% 10.4–13.6% 10.0–14.1% 9.7–14.5% 9.0–15.4%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 5.8% 4.8–7.1% 4.5–7.5% 4.3–7.8% 3.8–8.5%
Rødt 2.4% 5.1% 4.1–6.3% 3.9–6.7% 3.7–7.0% 3.3–7.6%
Venstre 4.4% 4.3% 3.5–5.5% 3.2–5.8% 3.1–6.1% 2.7–6.8%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.6% 2.9–4.7% 2.6–5.0% 2.5–5.3% 2.1–5.9%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.5% 2.7–4.5% 2.5–4.8% 2.3–5.1% 2.0–5.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 50 44–53 43–55 43–55 41–57
Høyre 45 40 37–44 36–46 35–46 33–49
Fremskrittspartiet 27 26 24–29 23–30 22–31 20–33
Senterpartiet 19 21 18–24 17–25 17–26 15–28
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 10 8–12 8–13 8–14 2–15
Rødt 1 9 7–11 2–11 2–12 2–13
Venstre 8 8 2–10 2–10 2–10 2–12
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 2 1–8 1–8 1–9 1–10
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 1–8 1–8 1–9 0–10

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.2% 100%  
41 0.6% 99.8%  
42 0.7% 99.1%  
43 4% 98%  
44 11% 95%  
45 7% 84%  
46 6% 77%  
47 6% 72%  
48 6% 65%  
49 9% 60% Last Result
50 18% 50% Median
51 18% 32%  
52 4% 14%  
53 2% 10%  
54 3% 8%  
55 3% 5%  
56 0.6% 2%  
57 1.1% 1.3%  
58 0.1% 0.3%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100%  
32 0.1% 99.9%  
33 0.4% 99.8%  
34 0.8% 99.5%  
35 2% 98.6%  
36 6% 97%  
37 6% 91%  
38 9% 85%  
39 11% 77%  
40 17% 66% Median
41 17% 49%  
42 8% 32%  
43 7% 24%  
44 10% 17%  
45 1.1% 7% Last Result
46 4% 6%  
47 0.2% 2%  
48 1.3% 2%  
49 0.4% 0.6%  
50 0.2% 0.2%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.3% 99.8%  
20 0.7% 99.6%  
21 1.2% 98.9%  
22 2% 98%  
23 3% 96%  
24 11% 92%  
25 16% 81%  
26 19% 65% Median
27 18% 46% Last Result
28 15% 28%  
29 7% 13%  
30 3% 6%  
31 1.2% 4%  
32 2% 2%  
33 0.5% 0.9%  
34 0.2% 0.4%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0% 100%  
15 0.6% 99.9%  
16 1.1% 99.3%  
17 4% 98%  
18 9% 94%  
19 14% 85% Last Result
20 20% 71%  
21 15% 51% Median
22 14% 36%  
23 9% 22%  
24 7% 13%  
25 2% 6%  
26 2% 4%  
27 0.7% 1.2%  
28 0.3% 0.5%  
29 0.1% 0.2%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.5% 100%  
2 0.5% 99.5%  
3 0.2% 99.1%  
4 0% 98.9%  
5 0% 98.9%  
6 0% 98.9%  
7 1.3% 98.8%  
8 11% 98%  
9 19% 86%  
10 25% 68% Median
11 24% 43% Last Result
12 9% 19%  
13 7% 10%  
14 2% 3%  
15 0.6% 0.8%  
16 0.1% 0.2%  
17 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100% Last Result
2 7% 99.9%  
3 0% 93%  
4 0% 93%  
5 0% 93%  
6 0.1% 93%  
7 7% 93%  
8 21% 87%  
9 31% 66% Median
10 18% 35%  
11 13% 17%  
12 2% 3%  
13 0.9% 1.2%  
14 0.3% 0.4%  
15 0% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 35% 99.9%  
3 2% 65%  
4 0% 63%  
5 0% 63%  
6 0.7% 63%  
7 6% 62%  
8 14% 56% Last Result, Median
9 29% 42%  
10 12% 13%  
11 1.2% 2%  
12 0.4% 0.5%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 16% 99.7% Last Result
2 41% 83% Median
3 8% 42%  
4 0% 34%  
5 0% 34%  
6 1.4% 34%  
7 14% 33%  
8 14% 19%  
9 4% 5%  
10 0.5% 0.7%  
11 0.1% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.0% 100%  
1 28% 99.0%  
2 6% 71%  
3 40% 64% Median
4 0% 25%  
5 0% 25%  
6 0.4% 25%  
7 9% 24%  
8 11% 15% Last Result
9 3% 4%  
10 0.5% 0.6%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 97 99.7% 92–103 92–103 91–104 86–108
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 92 97% 87–97 86–99 84–99 82–104
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 89 81% 83–93 81–95 80–96 78–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 87 81% 84–91 82–93 80–95 77–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 83 37% 78–89 77–90 76–91 74–94
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 89 80 19% 76–86 74–88 73–89 71–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 80 11% 75–85 73–87 71–87 70–89
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 77 3% 73–82 71–83 70–85 67–88
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 77 3% 72–82 70–83 70–85 65–87
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 73 0.3% 68–78 66–79 66–80 63–83
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 73 0.3% 69–76 69–77 66–79 62–84
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 70 0% 64–75 63–76 62–77 60–79
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 67 0% 63–71 61–72 60–74 56–76
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 59 0% 54–63 53–65 52–66 50–68
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 51 0% 45–56 44–57 43–58 41–60
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 31 0% 25–36 24–37 23–39 21–41

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0.3% 100%  
85 0.1% 99.7% Majority
86 0.4% 99.6%  
87 0.2% 99.2%  
88 0.3% 99.0%  
89 0.5% 98.7%  
90 0.5% 98%  
91 2% 98%  
92 7% 96%  
93 2% 89%  
94 4% 87%  
95 7% 83%  
96 18% 76%  
97 14% 59%  
98 9% 45% Median
99 8% 36%  
100 7% 28%  
101 7% 21%  
102 4% 15%  
103 7% 11%  
104 2% 4%  
105 0.8% 2%  
106 0.4% 2%  
107 0.5% 1.1% Last Result
108 0.3% 0.6%  
109 0.2% 0.3%  
110 0% 0.1%  
111 0% 0.1%  
112 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.1% 100%  
80 0% 99.9%  
81 0.2% 99.8% Last Result
82 0.3% 99.6%  
83 0.5% 99.3%  
84 1.4% 98.9%  
85 2% 97% Majority
86 5% 96%  
87 2% 90%  
88 5% 88%  
89 5% 83%  
90 6% 78%  
91 7% 72%  
92 17% 65% Median
93 13% 48%  
94 7% 35%  
95 9% 28%  
96 6% 20%  
97 4% 13%  
98 3% 10%  
99 5% 7%  
100 0.8% 2%  
101 0.4% 2%  
102 0.1% 1.2%  
103 0.2% 1.1%  
104 0.4% 0.9%  
105 0.3% 0.5%  
106 0.1% 0.2%  
107 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.2% 99.8%  
78 0.3% 99.6%  
79 1.4% 99.3%  
80 2% 98% Last Result
81 2% 96%  
82 2% 94%  
83 3% 92%  
84 8% 89%  
85 6% 81% Majority
86 7% 76%  
87 9% 69%  
88 6% 61%  
89 6% 55%  
90 18% 49% Median
91 10% 32%  
92 9% 22%  
93 4% 13%  
94 2% 10%  
95 3% 7%  
96 3% 5%  
97 0.9% 2%  
98 0.3% 0.6%  
99 0.1% 0.3%  
100 0.1% 0.2%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 99.9%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.4% 99.8%  
78 0.6% 99.4%  
79 0.8% 98.7%  
80 0.5% 98%  
81 1.1% 97%  
82 2% 96%  
83 4% 95%  
84 9% 91%  
85 12% 81% Majority
86 19% 70% Median
87 12% 51%  
88 8% 39% Last Result
89 9% 31%  
90 7% 22%  
91 6% 16%  
92 3% 10%  
93 2% 7%  
94 2% 4%  
95 0.9% 3%  
96 0.7% 2%  
97 0.4% 1.1%  
98 0.2% 0.7%  
99 0.3% 0.5%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.2% 99.9%  
73 0.2% 99.8%  
74 0.4% 99.6%  
75 0.7% 99.2%  
76 1.3% 98.5%  
77 5% 97%  
78 4% 92%  
79 4% 88%  
80 5% 84% Last Result
81 6% 80%  
82 8% 73%  
83 17% 65% Median
84 10% 47%  
85 8% 37% Majority
86 8% 30%  
87 5% 21%  
88 4% 16%  
89 4% 13%  
90 4% 9%  
91 3% 5%  
92 0.8% 2%  
93 0.6% 1.4%  
94 0.4% 0.8%  
95 0.1% 0.4%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 99.9%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.1% 99.8%  
71 0.3% 99.7%  
72 0.9% 99.4%  
73 3% 98%  
74 3% 95%  
75 2% 93%  
76 4% 90%  
77 9% 87%  
78 10% 78%  
79 18% 68% Median
80 6% 51%  
81 6% 45%  
82 9% 39%  
83 7% 31%  
84 6% 24%  
85 8% 19% Majority
86 3% 11%  
87 2% 8%  
88 2% 6%  
89 2% 4% Last Result
90 1.4% 2%  
91 0.3% 0.7%  
92 0.2% 0.4%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.1% 99.8%  
70 0.4% 99.7%  
71 2% 99.3%  
72 2% 97%  
73 3% 96%  
74 2% 92%  
75 7% 91%  
76 4% 84%  
77 8% 79%  
78 7% 71%  
79 8% 64% Last Result
80 7% 56%  
81 21% 49% Median
82 6% 29%  
83 6% 23%  
84 6% 17%  
85 3% 11% Majority
86 3% 8%  
87 4% 5%  
88 0.8% 2%  
89 0.5% 0.9%  
90 0.2% 0.4%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.5% 99.8%  
68 0.7% 99.2%  
69 0.6% 98.5%  
70 2% 98%  
71 2% 96%  
72 2% 94%  
73 12% 93%  
74 6% 81%  
75 11% 74%  
76 11% 63% Median
77 9% 53% Last Result
78 14% 43%  
79 8% 30%  
80 6% 22%  
81 6% 16%  
82 4% 11%  
83 2% 7%  
84 1.2% 5%  
85 1.4% 3% Majority
86 1.0% 2%  
87 0.4% 1.0%  
88 0.2% 0.6%  
89 0.2% 0.4%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.3% 99.8%  
65 0.4% 99.5%  
66 0.2% 99.1%  
67 0.1% 98.9%  
68 0.4% 98.8%  
69 0.8% 98%  
70 5% 98%  
71 3% 93%  
72 4% 90%  
73 6% 87%  
74 9% 80%  
75 7% 72%  
76 13% 65%  
77 17% 52% Median
78 7% 35%  
79 6% 28%  
80 5% 22%  
81 5% 17%  
82 2% 12%  
83 5% 10%  
84 2% 4%  
85 1.4% 3% Majority
86 0.5% 1.1%  
87 0.3% 0.7%  
88 0.2% 0.4% Last Result
89 0% 0.2%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.3% 99.8%  
64 0.6% 99.5%  
65 1.2% 98.9%  
66 4% 98%  
67 2% 94%  
68 4% 92%  
69 3% 88%  
70 8% 85%  
71 13% 77%  
72 8% 64%  
73 7% 56%  
74 13% 49% Median
75 9% 35%  
76 8% 26% Last Result
77 6% 18%  
78 6% 13%  
79 2% 6%  
80 3% 4%  
81 0.5% 2%  
82 0.4% 1.1%  
83 0.3% 0.7%  
84 0.2% 0.5%  
85 0.1% 0.3% Majority
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.3% 99.9%  
62 0.4% 99.6%  
63 0.6% 99.2%  
64 0.4% 98.5%  
65 0.4% 98%  
66 0.6% 98%  
67 0.6% 97%  
68 1.2% 96%  
69 7% 95%  
70 5% 88%  
71 10% 83%  
72 9% 73%  
73 16% 64%  
74 15% 48% Median
75 13% 33%  
76 11% 19%  
77 4% 9%  
78 1.4% 4%  
79 0.6% 3%  
80 0.3% 2% Last Result
81 0.2% 2%  
82 0.6% 2%  
83 0.4% 1.2%  
84 0.4% 0.8%  
85 0.2% 0.3% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.6% 99.8%  
61 0.7% 99.2%  
62 2% 98.6%  
63 6% 96%  
64 6% 91%  
65 2% 85%  
66 5% 83%  
67 6% 79%  
68 7% 73% Last Result
69 9% 65%  
70 16% 57%  
71 12% 41% Median
72 8% 29%  
73 6% 20%  
74 4% 14%  
75 4% 11%  
76 2% 7%  
77 3% 4%  
78 0.5% 1.0%  
79 0.2% 0.5%  
80 0.1% 0.3%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.3% 99.8%  
57 0.3% 99.5%  
58 0.4% 99.1%  
59 0.6% 98.7%  
60 2% 98%  
61 2% 96%  
62 4% 94%  
63 4% 91%  
64 10% 87%  
65 10% 76%  
66 12% 66% Median
67 17% 55%  
68 7% 38%  
69 9% 31%  
70 5% 22%  
71 9% 17%  
72 3% 7% Last Result
73 2% 5%  
74 1.4% 3%  
75 0.6% 1.1%  
76 0.3% 0.6%  
77 0.1% 0.3%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.3% 99.8%  
51 0.8% 99.5%  
52 2% 98.6%  
53 3% 97%  
54 6% 94%  
55 7% 88%  
56 7% 80%  
57 5% 73%  
58 10% 68%  
59 13% 58%  
60 7% 44% Last Result, Median
61 14% 38%  
62 11% 23%  
63 4% 12%  
64 2% 8%  
65 4% 6%  
66 0.8% 3%  
67 0.6% 2%  
68 0.8% 1.2%  
69 0.2% 0.3%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.2% 99.8%  
41 0.3% 99.7%  
42 2% 99.4%  
43 0.7% 98%  
44 6% 97%  
45 3% 91%  
46 5% 88%  
47 7% 83%  
48 8% 76%  
49 10% 68%  
50 4% 58%  
51 14% 54% Median
52 16% 40%  
53 4% 24%  
54 4% 19%  
55 3% 15%  
56 6% 12%  
57 3% 6%  
58 0.7% 3%  
59 1.4% 2%  
60 0.3% 0.8%  
61 0.3% 0.5% Last Result
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.1% 99.9%  
21 1.0% 99.7%  
22 0.7% 98.8%  
23 1.2% 98%  
24 5% 97%  
25 5% 92%  
26 4% 87%  
27 9% 83%  
28 5% 75%  
29 12% 70%  
30 7% 58%  
31 8% 52%  
32 13% 44% Median
33 6% 31%  
34 6% 25%  
35 6% 19% Last Result
36 4% 13%  
37 6% 9%  
38 1.0% 4%  
39 0.9% 3%  
40 0.4% 2%  
41 1.1% 1.5%  
42 0.3% 0.4%  
43 0.1% 0.2%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations