Opinion Poll by Norstat, 11–17 December 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 26.8% 25.0–28.7% 24.4–29.2% 24.0–29.7% 23.2–30.6%
Høyre 25.0% 26.5% 24.7–28.5% 24.2–29.0% 23.8–29.5% 23.0–30.4%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 12.4% 11.1–13.9% 10.7–14.3% 10.4–14.7% 9.8–15.4%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 11.2% 10.0–12.7% 9.6–13.1% 9.3–13.4% 8.8–14.1%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 6.9% 5.9–8.1% 5.7–8.4% 5.4–8.7% 5.0–9.3%
Rødt 2.4% 4.1% 3.4–5.1% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.6% 2.7–6.1%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.5% 2.8–4.4% 2.6–4.6% 2.5–4.8% 2.2–5.3%
Venstre 4.4% 3.5% 2.8–4.4% 2.6–4.6% 2.5–4.8% 2.2–5.3%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.5% 2.8–4.4% 2.6–4.6% 2.5–4.8% 2.2–5.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 48 45–53 44–54 43–55 41–57
Høyre 45 48 44–52 43–52 43–54 41–55
Fremskrittspartiet 27 22 20–25 19–26 18–27 17–28
Senterpartiet 19 20 18–23 17–24 17–25 16–26
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 13 11–14 10–15 10–16 9–17
Rødt 1 7 2–9 2–9 2–10 1–11
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 7 1–8 1–8 1–8 1–9
Venstre 8 2 2–8 2–8 1–8 1–10
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 1–8 1–8 1–9 0–10

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.4% 99.9%  
42 1.0% 99.5%  
43 2% 98.5%  
44 6% 96%  
45 7% 90%  
46 10% 83%  
47 17% 73%  
48 8% 56% Median
49 11% 48% Last Result
50 11% 36%  
51 10% 26%  
52 5% 16%  
53 5% 11%  
54 3% 6%  
55 2% 3%  
56 0.5% 1.4%  
57 0.6% 0.9%  
58 0.1% 0.3%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0.3% 99.9%  
41 0.5% 99.6%  
42 1.4% 99.1%  
43 4% 98%  
44 8% 94%  
45 6% 86% Last Result
46 12% 81%  
47 11% 69%  
48 18% 58% Median
49 10% 40%  
50 7% 29%  
51 12% 23%  
52 7% 11%  
53 1.3% 5%  
54 2% 3%  
55 1.2% 2%  
56 0.3% 0.5%  
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.2% 100%  
17 0.6% 99.7%  
18 2% 99.1%  
19 6% 97%  
20 11% 91%  
21 13% 80%  
22 18% 67% Median
23 17% 50%  
24 13% 33%  
25 12% 20%  
26 4% 8%  
27 2% 3% Last Result
28 1.4% 2%  
29 0.2% 0.3%  
30 0% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.4% 99.9%  
16 1.2% 99.5%  
17 6% 98%  
18 9% 92%  
19 26% 83% Last Result
20 21% 58% Median
21 15% 37%  
22 10% 22%  
23 6% 11%  
24 3% 6%  
25 2% 3%  
26 0.3% 0.5%  
27 0.1% 0.2%  
28 0% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.2% 100%  
9 1.2% 99.7%  
10 7% 98.5%  
11 18% 91% Last Result
12 20% 73%  
13 28% 53% Median
14 16% 26%  
15 6% 10%  
16 3% 4%  
17 0.9% 1.0%  
18 0.1% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100% Last Result
2 39% 98%  
3 0.1% 59%  
4 0% 58%  
5 0% 58%  
6 0.1% 58%  
7 10% 58% Median
8 34% 49%  
9 11% 15%  
10 4% 4%  
11 0.6% 0.7%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 22% 100% Last Result
2 20% 78%  
3 0% 57%  
4 0% 57%  
5 0% 57%  
6 0% 57%  
7 11% 57% Median
8 46% 46%  
9 0.2% 0.6%  
10 0.1% 0.4%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 3% 99.9%  
2 71% 97% Median
3 0.8% 26%  
4 0.3% 25%  
5 0% 25%  
6 0.1% 25%  
7 12% 25%  
8 11% 13% Last Result
9 1.2% 2%  
10 0.4% 0.6%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.9% 100%  
1 30% 99.1%  
2 8% 69%  
3 41% 61% Median
4 0% 20%  
5 0% 20%  
6 0.3% 20%  
7 5% 20%  
8 10% 15% Last Result
9 4% 5%  
10 1.1% 1.3%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 97 99.9% 92–103 90–105 89–107 85–109
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 92 96% 86–98 85–99 83–100 80–103
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 90 90% 85–94 83–96 81–97 79–100
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 86 69% 81–92 79–93 78–95 76–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 86 70% 82–92 81–93 79–94 77–97
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre 89 83 30% 77–87 76–88 75–90 72–92
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 81 16% 77–86 76–87 75–89 72–91
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 77 4% 71–83 70–84 69–86 66–89
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 77 3% 72–82 70–83 69–85 67–87
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 74 0.3% 68–79 67–81 67–82 65–84
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 71 0.2% 67–77 66–79 65–80 64–83
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 71 0% 66–74 65–76 64–77 61–79
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 68 0% 65–73 64–75 62–76 61–78
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 61 0% 57–65 56–67 55–68 53–70
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 54 0% 49–61 48–62 46–63 45–66
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 26 0% 22–32 21–33 20–35 20–37

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0.1% 100%  
85 0.5% 99.9% Majority
86 0.2% 99.4%  
87 0.4% 99.2%  
88 1.0% 98.8%  
89 2% 98%  
90 2% 95%  
91 3% 93%  
92 6% 90%  
93 4% 85%  
94 4% 80%  
95 11% 77% Median
96 14% 66%  
97 7% 51%  
98 4% 44%  
99 8% 40%  
100 8% 32%  
101 7% 25%  
102 4% 17%  
103 3% 13%  
104 4% 10%  
105 2% 6%  
106 0.9% 4%  
107 1.3% 3% Last Result
108 0.8% 1.4%  
109 0.4% 0.6%  
110 0.1% 0.2%  
111 0.1% 0.1%  
112 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.4% 99.8%  
81 0.2% 99.4% Last Result
82 0.4% 99.1%  
83 2% 98.7%  
84 1.1% 97%  
85 3% 96% Majority
86 4% 92%  
87 6% 88%  
88 4% 82%  
89 8% 78%  
90 9% 70%  
91 7% 61%  
92 10% 54%  
93 9% 44%  
94 9% 35%  
95 6% 26% Median
96 3% 20%  
97 5% 17%  
98 4% 12%  
99 4% 8%  
100 2% 3%  
101 0.8% 2%  
102 0.6% 1.1%  
103 0.4% 0.5%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 99.9%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.7% 99.8%  
80 1.0% 99.1%  
81 1.0% 98%  
82 1.5% 97%  
83 2% 96%  
84 3% 93%  
85 5% 90% Majority
86 4% 85%  
87 7% 81%  
88 12% 73% Last Result
89 8% 61%  
90 12% 53%  
91 12% 41% Median
92 9% 29%  
93 7% 21%  
94 4% 13%  
95 4% 9%  
96 2% 5%  
97 1.1% 3%  
98 1.3% 2%  
99 0.4% 0.9%  
100 0.3% 0.5%  
101 0.2% 0.3%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.3% 99.8%  
76 0.5% 99.5%  
77 2% 99.1%  
78 1.3% 98%  
79 2% 96%  
80 3% 94% Last Result
81 5% 91%  
82 7% 86%  
83 5% 79%  
84 5% 74%  
85 13% 69% Majority
86 9% 55%  
87 8% 47%  
88 7% 38% Median
89 7% 32%  
90 10% 25%  
91 4% 14%  
92 3% 10%  
93 2% 7%  
94 1.3% 4%  
95 2% 3%  
96 0.4% 1.3%  
97 0.5% 0.9%  
98 0.1% 0.4%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.2% 99.9%  
77 0.1% 99.6%  
78 0.8% 99.5%  
79 2% 98.6%  
80 1.4% 97% Last Result
81 5% 96%  
82 4% 91%  
83 6% 87%  
84 10% 80%  
85 12% 70% Majority
86 10% 59%  
87 9% 49%  
88 8% 40% Median
89 6% 32%  
90 8% 26%  
91 6% 18%  
92 5% 13%  
93 3% 8%  
94 2% 4%  
95 0.6% 2%  
96 1.1% 2%  
97 0.3% 0.6%  
98 0.2% 0.3%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.2% 99.9%  
72 0.3% 99.7%  
73 1.1% 99.4%  
74 0.6% 98%  
75 2% 98%  
76 3% 96%  
77 5% 92%  
78 6% 87%  
79 8% 82%  
80 6% 74%  
81 8% 68%  
82 9% 60% Median
83 10% 51%  
84 12% 41%  
85 10% 30% Majority
86 6% 20%  
87 4% 13%  
88 5% 9%  
89 1.4% 4% Last Result
90 2% 3%  
91 0.8% 1.4%  
92 0.1% 0.5%  
93 0.2% 0.4%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.2% 99.9%  
72 0.3% 99.7%  
73 0.7% 99.4%  
74 1.0% 98.7%  
75 3% 98%  
76 3% 95%  
77 8% 92%  
78 9% 84%  
79 10% 75% Last Result
80 11% 65%  
81 8% 55% Median
82 14% 47%  
83 7% 33%  
84 9% 25%  
85 5% 16% Majority
86 3% 11%  
87 4% 8%  
88 2% 5%  
89 1.5% 3%  
90 0.5% 1.2%  
91 0.4% 0.8%  
92 0.3% 0.4%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 99.9%  
66 0.4% 99.9%  
67 0.6% 99.5%  
68 0.8% 98.9%  
69 2% 98%  
70 4% 97%  
71 4% 92%  
72 5% 88%  
73 3% 83%  
74 6% 80%  
75 9% 74% Median
76 9% 65%  
77 10% 56%  
78 7% 46%  
79 9% 39%  
80 8% 30%  
81 4% 22%  
82 6% 18%  
83 4% 12%  
84 3% 8%  
85 1.1% 4% Majority
86 2% 3%  
87 0.4% 1.3%  
88 0.2% 0.9% Last Result
89 0.4% 0.6%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 1.5% 99.7%  
68 0.8% 98%  
69 1.4% 98%  
70 2% 96%  
71 3% 94%  
72 3% 91%  
73 4% 88%  
74 9% 84%  
75 7% 75%  
76 6% 68%  
77 18% 62% Last Result
78 13% 44% Median
79 9% 31%  
80 4% 22%  
81 8% 19%  
82 4% 11%  
83 3% 7%  
84 1.3% 4%  
85 1.1% 3% Majority
86 1.0% 2%  
87 0.2% 0.6%  
88 0.2% 0.3%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.2% 99.9%  
65 0.9% 99.7%  
66 1.2% 98.8%  
67 3% 98%  
68 5% 95%  
69 6% 90%  
70 3% 83%  
71 7% 80%  
72 9% 73% Median
73 13% 64%  
74 8% 51%  
75 7% 43%  
76 12% 36%  
77 7% 24%  
78 5% 17%  
79 3% 12%  
80 4% 10% Last Result
81 3% 6%  
82 1.4% 3%  
83 0.9% 2%  
84 0.7% 0.9%  
85 0.1% 0.3% Majority
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.2% 99.9%  
64 0.9% 99.6%  
65 1.4% 98.8%  
66 5% 97%  
67 3% 92%  
68 4% 88%  
69 16% 84%  
70 12% 69%  
71 8% 57% Median
72 7% 49%  
73 11% 42%  
74 7% 31%  
75 7% 25%  
76 4% 18% Last Result
77 5% 14%  
78 3% 9%  
79 2% 6%  
80 1.3% 3%  
81 0.8% 2%  
82 0.4% 1.0%  
83 0.2% 0.6%  
84 0.2% 0.3%  
85 0.1% 0.2% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.2% 99.9%  
61 0.2% 99.7%  
62 0.3% 99.5%  
63 1.2% 99.2%  
64 2% 98%  
65 3% 96%  
66 7% 93%  
67 8% 86%  
68 5% 79%  
69 9% 74%  
70 13% 64% Median
71 14% 51%  
72 9% 37% Last Result
73 8% 28%  
74 11% 20%  
75 4% 9%  
76 2% 6%  
77 1.1% 3%  
78 1.1% 2%  
79 0.5% 0.9%  
80 0.2% 0.4%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.3% 99.8%  
61 1.0% 99.6%  
62 1.4% 98.5%  
63 2% 97%  
64 5% 95%  
65 8% 90%  
66 15% 83%  
67 7% 67%  
68 11% 60% Last Result, Median
69 13% 49%  
70 10% 36%  
71 7% 27%  
72 7% 19%  
73 4% 12%  
74 2% 8%  
75 2% 6%  
76 2% 3%  
77 0.7% 1.4%  
78 0.4% 0.7%  
79 0.2% 0.3%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 0.6% 99.7%  
54 2% 99.1%  
55 2% 98%  
56 3% 96%  
57 4% 93%  
58 15% 89%  
59 12% 74%  
60 8% 62% Last Result
61 12% 55% Median
62 8% 43%  
63 14% 36%  
64 7% 22%  
65 5% 14%  
66 4% 9%  
67 3% 6%  
68 1.2% 3%  
69 0.9% 1.5%  
70 0.3% 0.6%  
71 0.1% 0.3%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.4% 99.8%  
46 2% 99.3%  
47 0.9% 97%  
48 2% 97%  
49 6% 94%  
50 4% 89%  
51 10% 85%  
52 6% 75%  
53 9% 69% Median
54 13% 60%  
55 8% 47%  
56 7% 40%  
57 6% 33%  
58 9% 27%  
59 5% 18%  
60 3% 13%  
61 4% 11% Last Result
62 3% 7%  
63 1.1% 3%  
64 0.9% 2%  
65 0.4% 1.3%  
66 0.7% 0.8%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0% 100%  
19 0.4% 99.9%  
20 2% 99.6%  
21 2% 97%  
22 10% 95%  
23 7% 85%  
24 13% 78%  
25 7% 65% Median
26 10% 58%  
27 5% 47%  
28 7% 42%  
29 5% 35%  
30 14% 30%  
31 4% 17%  
32 4% 12%  
33 3% 8%  
34 2% 5%  
35 2% 3% Last Result
36 0.5% 1.4%  
37 0.7% 0.9%  
38 0.1% 0.2%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations