Opinion Poll by Ipsos MMI, 17–19 December 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 28.5% 26.7–30.4% 26.1–31.0% 25.7–31.5% 24.8–32.4%
Høyre 25.0% 24.7% 22.9–26.6% 22.5–27.1% 22.0–27.5% 21.2–28.5%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 12.8% 11.5–14.3% 11.1–14.7% 10.8–15.1% 10.2–15.9%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 10.4% 9.2–11.8% 8.9–12.1% 8.6–12.5% 8.0–13.2%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 8.1% 7.0–9.3% 6.7–9.7% 6.5–10.0% 6.0–10.6%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.8% 3.1–4.7% 2.9–5.0% 2.8–5.2% 2.5–5.7%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.7% 3.0–4.6% 2.8–4.9% 2.7–5.1% 2.4–5.6%
Venstre 4.4% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.8–4.7%
Rødt 2.4% 2.6% 2.1–3.5% 1.9–3.7% 1.8–3.9% 1.6–4.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 53 48–57 48–58 47–58 45–60
Høyre 45 46 41–49 41–50 40–52 38–53
Fremskrittspartiet 27 24 21–26 20–27 20–28 19–29
Senterpartiet 19 19 17–22 16–22 16–23 15–24
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 15 13–17 13–18 12–19 11–20
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 1–8 1–9 1–10 1–10
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 3 1–8 1–9 1–9 1–10
Venstre 8 2 1–2 1–7 1–8 0–8
Rødt 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–8

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.3% 99.8%  
46 0.9% 99.5%  
47 2% 98.6%  
48 6% 96%  
49 8% 90% Last Result
50 8% 82%  
51 6% 74%  
52 7% 68%  
53 17% 61% Median
54 6% 44%  
55 11% 38%  
56 11% 27%  
57 8% 16%  
58 6% 8%  
59 0.9% 2%  
60 0.9% 1.2%  
61 0.2% 0.4%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 0.2% 99.7%  
39 0.5% 99.5%  
40 2% 98.9%  
41 8% 97%  
42 6% 89%  
43 6% 83%  
44 9% 77%  
45 16% 67% Last Result
46 15% 52% Median
47 9% 36%  
48 14% 27%  
49 6% 13%  
50 3% 8%  
51 2% 4%  
52 2% 3%  
53 0.3% 0.5%  
54 0.2% 0.2%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100%  
18 0.3% 99.9%  
19 2% 99.6%  
20 4% 98%  
21 11% 94%  
22 10% 83%  
23 10% 73%  
24 23% 62% Median
25 17% 40%  
26 14% 23%  
27 5% 9% Last Result
28 3% 4%  
29 0.9% 1.3%  
30 0.3% 0.4%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.3% 100%  
15 1.3% 99.7%  
16 5% 98%  
17 13% 94%  
18 14% 81%  
19 19% 67% Last Result, Median
20 22% 48%  
21 16% 27%  
22 6% 11%  
23 2% 4%  
24 1.5% 2%  
25 0.3% 0.4%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.2% 100%  
11 1.1% 99.8% Last Result
12 3% 98.7%  
13 14% 95%  
14 25% 82%  
15 27% 56% Median
16 16% 30%  
17 6% 14%  
18 4% 7%  
19 3% 4%  
20 0.9% 1.0%  
21 0.1% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 13% 99.9%  
2 21% 87%  
3 37% 67% Median
4 0% 30%  
5 0% 30%  
6 0% 30%  
7 5% 30%  
8 16% 25% Last Result
9 6% 9%  
10 3% 3%  
11 0.4% 0.4%  
12 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 11% 100% Last Result
2 37% 89%  
3 10% 52% Median
4 3% 42%  
5 0% 39%  
6 0.1% 39%  
7 11% 38%  
8 20% 27%  
9 5% 7%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.1% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.5% 100%  
1 11% 99.5%  
2 80% 89% Median
3 3% 9%  
4 0.1% 6%  
5 0% 6%  
6 0% 6%  
7 2% 6%  
8 3% 3% Last Result
9 0.5% 0.5%  
10 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 51% 100% Last Result, Median
2 47% 49%  
3 0% 2%  
4 0% 2%  
5 0% 2%  
6 0% 2%  
7 0.9% 2%  
8 0.8% 0.8%  
9 0% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 96 99.9% 91–100 90–101 88–103 87–105
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 95 99.8% 90–100 89–102 88–103 85–105
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 93 98.6% 88–98 86–99 86–100 83–103
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 92 96% 86–97 85–98 84–98 82–101
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 89 88% 84–93 82–94 81–95 79–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 88 74% 82–91 81–93 80–94 78–95
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 81 14% 76–85 75–87 74–88 71–91
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre 89 80 12% 76–85 75–87 74–88 72–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 76 1.3% 72–81 71–83 70–84 68–85
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 75 1.3% 71–81 70–83 69–83 66–86
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 72 0% 67–76 66–77 64–79 62–81
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 73 0% 68–77 66–77 65–78 63–80
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 70 0% 65–74 63–75 62–76 60–78
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 69 0% 63–72 62–74 61–74 60–76
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 52 0% 47–57 46–58 45–60 44–61
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 25 0% 22–30 21–32 20–33 19–36

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0% 100%  
85 0.1% 99.9% Majority
86 0.2% 99.8%  
87 0.7% 99.6%  
88 2% 98.9% Last Result
89 1.2% 97%  
90 3% 96%  
91 7% 93%  
92 4% 87%  
93 7% 83% Median
94 12% 76%  
95 10% 64%  
96 16% 54%  
97 7% 38%  
98 10% 31%  
99 8% 22%  
100 7% 13%  
101 2% 7%  
102 2% 5%  
103 1.1% 3%  
104 1.2% 2%  
105 0.1% 0.6%  
106 0.4% 0.5%  
107 0.1% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0.1% 100%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 0.3% 99.8% Majority
86 0.3% 99.4%  
87 1.4% 99.1%  
88 2% 98%  
89 4% 96%  
90 5% 92%  
91 5% 88%  
92 5% 83%  
93 14% 78%  
94 8% 64% Median
95 12% 56%  
96 11% 43%  
97 6% 32%  
98 6% 26%  
99 5% 20%  
100 5% 15%  
101 3% 10%  
102 3% 6%  
103 2% 3%  
104 0.4% 1.0%  
105 0.3% 0.5%  
106 0.2% 0.3%  
107 0% 0.1% Last Result
108 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100%  
81 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.4% 99.8%  
84 0.8% 99.4%  
85 0.8% 98.6% Majority
86 3% 98%  
87 5% 95%  
88 3% 90%  
89 7% 87%  
90 5% 81%  
91 6% 75% Median
92 11% 69%  
93 9% 58%  
94 10% 50%  
95 11% 40%  
96 10% 29%  
97 7% 19%  
98 2% 12%  
99 6% 10%  
100 2% 4%  
101 0.5% 2%  
102 0.9% 1.4%  
103 0.5% 0.6%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0.1% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.1% 100%  
80 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
81 0.2% 99.8%  
82 0.6% 99.6%  
83 0.7% 99.0%  
84 2% 98%  
85 4% 96% Majority
86 4% 93%  
87 5% 89%  
88 6% 84%  
89 8% 78%  
90 5% 71% Median
91 14% 66%  
92 7% 52%  
93 12% 45%  
94 12% 33%  
95 6% 21%  
96 5% 15%  
97 4% 10%  
98 4% 6%  
99 0.6% 2%  
100 0.3% 1.2%  
101 0.7% 0.9%  
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.2% 99.9%  
79 0.6% 99.7%  
80 0.7% 99.1% Last Result
81 2% 98%  
82 2% 96%  
83 4% 94%  
84 3% 90%  
85 10% 88% Majority
86 7% 78%  
87 5% 71%  
88 6% 66% Median
89 15% 60%  
90 7% 45%  
91 11% 38%  
92 12% 27%  
93 7% 15%  
94 3% 8%  
95 2% 4%  
96 1.4% 2%  
97 0.4% 0.7%  
98 0.1% 0.3%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.2% 99.8%  
78 0.7% 99.6%  
79 0.8% 98.9% Last Result
80 2% 98%  
81 3% 96%  
82 4% 93%  
83 7% 89%  
84 8% 82%  
85 6% 74% Majority
86 6% 68%  
87 12% 62% Median
88 8% 50%  
89 12% 42%  
90 10% 30%  
91 11% 21%  
92 3% 10%  
93 3% 6%  
94 2% 3%  
95 0.7% 1.2%  
96 0.2% 0.4%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.5% 99.8%  
72 0.3% 99.3%  
73 0.7% 99.0%  
74 2% 98%  
75 2% 96%  
76 7% 94%  
77 5% 87% Last Result
78 8% 82% Median
79 9% 74%  
80 12% 65%  
81 9% 53%  
82 12% 45%  
83 9% 32%  
84 9% 23%  
85 6% 14% Majority
86 2% 8%  
87 2% 6%  
88 2% 4%  
89 0.9% 2%  
90 0.6% 1.2%  
91 0.4% 0.6%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.1% 99.8%  
72 0.4% 99.7%  
73 2% 99.2%  
74 2% 98%  
75 3% 95%  
76 8% 92%  
77 12% 84%  
78 11% 73% Median
79 7% 61%  
80 14% 54%  
81 6% 40%  
82 5% 34%  
83 7% 29%  
84 10% 22%  
85 3% 12% Majority
86 4% 9%  
87 2% 5%  
88 2% 3%  
89 0.7% 1.5% Last Result
90 0.6% 0.8%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.3% 99.9%  
68 0.5% 99.6%  
69 1.3% 99.0%  
70 2% 98%  
71 4% 96%  
72 4% 92%  
73 8% 88%  
74 10% 80%  
75 12% 70% Median
76 9% 58% Last Result
77 10% 49%  
78 11% 39%  
79 4% 27%  
80 11% 23%  
81 3% 12%  
82 3% 9%  
83 2% 5%  
84 2% 3%  
85 0.8% 1.3% Majority
86 0.2% 0.5%  
87 0.2% 0.2%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0% 99.9%  
66 0.5% 99.9%  
67 0.9% 99.4%  
68 0.5% 98.6%  
69 2% 98%  
70 6% 96%  
71 2% 90%  
72 7% 88%  
73 10% 81%  
74 11% 71%  
75 10% 60% Median
76 9% 50%  
77 11% 41%  
78 6% 31%  
79 5% 24%  
80 7% 19%  
81 3% 12%  
82 5% 10%  
83 3% 5%  
84 0.7% 2%  
85 0.8% 1.3% Majority
86 0.3% 0.5%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0% 0.1% Last Result
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.4% 99.8%  
63 0.3% 99.4%  
64 2% 99.2%  
65 2% 97%  
66 2% 96%  
67 5% 94%  
68 6% 89%  
69 10% 83%  
70 8% 73%  
71 15% 65%  
72 10% 50% Median
73 13% 40%  
74 8% 28%  
75 5% 20%  
76 5% 14%  
77 4% 9%  
78 2% 4%  
79 1.3% 3%  
80 0.8% 2% Last Result
81 0.5% 0.7%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.2% 99.9%  
63 0.3% 99.8%  
64 0.7% 99.5%  
65 2% 98.8%  
66 4% 97%  
67 2% 93%  
68 4% 91% Last Result
69 8% 87%  
70 9% 78%  
71 6% 69%  
72 10% 64% Median
73 12% 54%  
74 14% 42%  
75 10% 28%  
76 6% 18%  
77 8% 12%  
78 3% 4%  
79 0.7% 1.3%  
80 0.2% 0.6%  
81 0.3% 0.4%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.4% 99.8%  
61 0.3% 99.4%  
62 2% 99.1%  
63 3% 97%  
64 2% 94%  
65 5% 92%  
66 6% 87%  
67 10% 81%  
68 7% 70%  
69 12% 64%  
70 16% 52% Median
71 10% 36%  
72 8% 26% Last Result
73 5% 18%  
74 6% 13%  
75 4% 8%  
76 1.5% 4%  
77 1.4% 2%  
78 0.6% 1.0%  
79 0.2% 0.3%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.2% 99.8%  
60 0.7% 99.6% Last Result
61 2% 98.9%  
62 5% 97%  
63 8% 92%  
64 5% 84%  
65 8% 79%  
66 6% 71%  
67 9% 65%  
68 5% 56% Median
69 14% 51%  
70 15% 37%  
71 3% 22%  
72 10% 19%  
73 4% 10%  
74 3% 5%  
75 0.7% 2%  
76 1.1% 1.4%  
77 0.1% 0.3%  
78 0% 0.2%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100%  
43 0.2% 99.9%  
44 0.4% 99.8%  
45 2% 99.4%  
46 6% 97%  
47 2% 91%  
48 5% 89%  
49 11% 84%  
50 9% 73%  
51 13% 65% Median
52 12% 52%  
53 8% 40%  
54 8% 31%  
55 5% 23%  
56 5% 18%  
57 5% 12%  
58 3% 7%  
59 2% 4%  
60 1.3% 3%  
61 0.8% 1.2% Last Result
62 0.2% 0.4%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.3% 100%  
19 2% 99.6%  
20 2% 98%  
21 5% 96%  
22 9% 91%  
23 7% 82%  
24 18% 75% Median
25 11% 57%  
26 11% 46%  
27 7% 36%  
28 7% 28%  
29 6% 21%  
30 6% 16%  
31 3% 9%  
32 3% 6%  
33 2% 3%  
34 0.6% 2%  
35 0.5% 1.2% Last Result
36 0.5% 0.7%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations