Opinion Poll by Norstat, 2–7 January 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 27.3% 25.2–29.5% 24.6–30.1% 24.1–30.7% 23.1–31.7%
Høyre 25.0% 27.0% 24.9–29.2% 24.3–29.8% 23.8–30.4% 22.9–31.5%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 12.1% 10.7–13.9% 10.3–14.3% 9.9–14.8% 9.3–15.6%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 12.1% 10.7–13.9% 10.3–14.3% 9.9–14.8% 9.3–15.6%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.3% 6.2–8.8% 5.9–9.2% 5.6–9.5% 5.2–10.2%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.7% 2.9–4.8% 2.7–5.1% 2.5–5.3% 2.2–5.9%
Rødt 2.4% 3.2% 2.5–4.3% 2.3–4.6% 2.2–4.8% 1.9–5.4%
Venstre 4.4% 3.1% 2.4–4.1% 2.2–4.4% 2.1–4.7% 1.8–5.2%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 2.4% 1.8–3.3% 1.6–3.6% 1.5–3.8% 1.3–4.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 50 46–54 45–56 43–56 42–60
Høyre 45 49 45–54 44–54 43–56 42–58
Senterpartiet 19 23 19–26 18–27 18–27 17–29
Fremskrittspartiet 27 22 19–25 18–27 18–27 17–29
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 14 11–16 11–17 10–18 9–19
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 1–9 1–9 1–10 0–10
Rødt 1 2 1–8 1–8 1–9 1–10
Venstre 8 2 2–7 1–8 1–8 0–9
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–8

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 1.0% 99.8%  
43 2% 98.8%  
44 1.1% 97%  
45 5% 96%  
46 8% 91%  
47 8% 83%  
48 8% 75%  
49 9% 67% Last Result
50 13% 58% Median
51 10% 45%  
52 9% 35%  
53 12% 26%  
54 6% 14%  
55 2% 8%  
56 4% 6%  
57 0.8% 2%  
58 0.3% 1.1%  
59 0.3% 0.9%  
60 0.5% 0.6%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.3% 99.8%  
42 1.1% 99.5%  
43 3% 98%  
44 4% 96%  
45 4% 91% Last Result
46 10% 87%  
47 5% 78%  
48 11% 73%  
49 14% 61% Median
50 5% 47%  
51 16% 42%  
52 8% 27%  
53 5% 19%  
54 9% 13%  
55 1.0% 4%  
56 2% 3%  
57 0.7% 1.2%  
58 0.1% 0.6%  
59 0.2% 0.4%  
60 0.2% 0.2%  
61 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.3% 100%  
17 0.7% 99.6%  
18 4% 98.9%  
19 6% 95% Last Result
20 7% 89%  
21 11% 82%  
22 17% 70%  
23 10% 53% Median
24 20% 43%  
25 10% 23%  
26 6% 13%  
27 5% 7%  
28 0.8% 2%  
29 0.6% 0.7%  
30 0.1% 0.2%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.3% 99.9%  
17 1.3% 99.5%  
18 3% 98%  
19 7% 95%  
20 16% 88%  
21 9% 71%  
22 17% 62% Median
23 13% 45%  
24 13% 31%  
25 9% 18%  
26 4% 9%  
27 3% 5% Last Result
28 1.2% 2%  
29 0.7% 0.9%  
30 0.2% 0.3%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 0.7% 99.9%  
10 3% 99.2%  
11 10% 96% Last Result
12 14% 86%  
13 19% 72%  
14 22% 53% Median
15 15% 31%  
16 10% 16%  
17 4% 6%  
18 2% 3%  
19 0.6% 0.7%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.2% 100%  
1 18% 98.8%  
2 9% 81%  
3 38% 72% Median
4 0% 34%  
5 0% 34%  
6 0% 34%  
7 5% 34%  
8 19% 29% Last Result
9 6% 10%  
10 3% 4%  
11 0.4% 0.5%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 19% 100% Last Result
2 65% 81% Median
3 0% 17%  
4 0% 17%  
5 0% 17%  
6 0% 17%  
7 5% 17%  
8 7% 11%  
9 4% 4%  
10 0.5% 0.6%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.7% 100%  
1 8% 99.3%  
2 76% 91% Median
3 3% 15%  
4 0% 12%  
5 0% 12%  
6 0% 12%  
7 3% 12%  
8 6% 8% Last Result
9 1.4% 2%  
10 0.4% 0.5%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 12% 100%  
1 68% 88% Last Result, Median
2 19% 20%  
3 0.6% 2%  
4 0% 1.2%  
5 0% 1.2%  
6 0% 1.2%  
7 0.4% 1.2%  
8 0.7% 0.8%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 101 100% 96–106 95–108 94–109 91–111
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 92 96% 87–98 85–99 84–99 81–102
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 90 94% 85–95 84–97 82–98 80–100
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 89 87% 84–94 83–95 81–97 79–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 88 79% 82–93 80–94 79–96 77–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 86 70% 81–91 79–93 78–94 76–96
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 80 13% 75–85 73–86 72–88 70–90
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 79 6% 74–84 72–85 71–87 69–89
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 78 8% 74–84 72–86 71–86 68–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 77 6% 72–82 71–85 70–85 66–87
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 74 0.7% 69–79 68–81 67–82 64–85
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 73 0.1% 68–78 66–79 65–80 63–82
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 72 0.1% 66–77 66–78 64–79 61–81
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 64 0% 59–68 58–70 56–71 55–73
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 56 0% 52–61 51–63 49–65 47–67
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 30 0% 25–35 24–36 22–37 21–40

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0.1% 100%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.3% 99.8%  
91 0.4% 99.5%  
92 0.4% 99.1%  
93 0.9% 98.7%  
94 2% 98%  
95 4% 96%  
96 5% 92%  
97 3% 87%  
98 6% 83%  
99 6% 77% Median
100 12% 71%  
101 11% 59%  
102 7% 48%  
103 9% 42%  
104 12% 32%  
105 5% 20%  
106 7% 15%  
107 2% 8% Last Result
108 3% 6%  
109 1.1% 3%  
110 1.0% 2%  
111 0.3% 0.5%  
112 0.2% 0.2%  
113 0% 0.1%  
114 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.2% 99.9%  
81 0.4% 99.7%  
82 0.6% 99.2%  
83 0.9% 98.7%  
84 1.4% 98%  
85 2% 96% Majority
86 3% 94%  
87 5% 91%  
88 7% 86% Last Result
89 5% 79%  
90 10% 74%  
91 11% 63% Median
92 9% 52%  
93 10% 43%  
94 7% 33%  
95 7% 26%  
96 5% 19%  
97 3% 14%  
98 3% 11%  
99 6% 8%  
100 0.6% 2%  
101 0.5% 1.0%  
102 0.3% 0.6%  
103 0.1% 0.3%  
104 0.1% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.2% 99.9%  
80 0.3% 99.7%  
81 0.7% 99.4% Last Result
82 1.3% 98.7%  
83 1.4% 97%  
84 2% 96%  
85 6% 94% Majority
86 5% 88%  
87 7% 83%  
88 7% 75%  
89 9% 69%  
90 12% 59% Median
91 5% 47%  
92 10% 42%  
93 9% 32%  
94 6% 23%  
95 9% 16%  
96 2% 8%  
97 2% 6%  
98 2% 4%  
99 1.1% 2%  
100 0.3% 0.8%  
101 0.2% 0.4%  
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.2% 99.8%  
79 0.3% 99.6%  
80 0.9% 99.3% Last Result
81 1.2% 98%  
82 0.8% 97%  
83 3% 96%  
84 6% 93%  
85 6% 87% Majority
86 8% 82%  
87 7% 74%  
88 10% 67%  
89 10% 56% Median
90 4% 46%  
91 13% 42%  
92 7% 29%  
93 8% 22%  
94 7% 14%  
95 3% 8%  
96 1.5% 5%  
97 2% 4%  
98 0.8% 1.5%  
99 0.3% 0.7%  
100 0.2% 0.4%  
101 0.1% 0.2%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.2% 99.8%  
77 0.7% 99.7%  
78 0.8% 99.0%  
79 2% 98%  
80 2% 97% Last Result
81 3% 95%  
82 3% 92%  
83 5% 89%  
84 5% 84%  
85 9% 79% Majority
86 7% 70%  
87 11% 63%  
88 12% 51% Median
89 6% 39%  
90 8% 34%  
91 8% 26%  
92 5% 17%  
93 6% 12%  
94 2% 6%  
95 2% 4%  
96 1.4% 3%  
97 0.8% 1.1%  
98 0.1% 0.3%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.2% 99.8%  
76 0.7% 99.6%  
77 1.4% 99.0%  
78 1.1% 98%  
79 2% 96% Last Result
80 2% 94%  
81 3% 92%  
82 5% 89%  
83 6% 84%  
84 8% 78%  
85 9% 70% Majority
86 11% 60%  
87 10% 49% Median
88 6% 39%  
89 10% 33%  
90 6% 23%  
91 7% 17%  
92 4% 9%  
93 2% 6%  
94 2% 4%  
95 1.3% 2%  
96 0.7% 1.0%  
97 0.1% 0.3%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.2% 99.8%  
70 0.3% 99.6%  
71 0.8% 99.3%  
72 2% 98.5%  
73 1.5% 96%  
74 3% 95%  
75 7% 92%  
76 8% 86%  
77 7% 78% Median
78 13% 71%  
79 4% 58%  
80 10% 54%  
81 10% 44%  
82 7% 33%  
83 8% 26%  
84 6% 18%  
85 6% 13% Majority
86 3% 7%  
87 0.8% 4%  
88 1.2% 3%  
89 0.9% 2% Last Result
90 0.3% 0.7%  
91 0.2% 0.4%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.2% 99.8%  
69 0.3% 99.6%  
70 1.1% 99.2%  
71 2% 98%  
72 2% 96%  
73 2% 94%  
74 9% 92%  
75 6% 83%  
76 9% 77% Median
77 10% 68%  
78 5% 58%  
79 12% 53%  
80 9% 41%  
81 7% 31%  
82 7% 25%  
83 5% 17%  
84 6% 12%  
85 2% 6% Majority
86 1.4% 4%  
87 1.3% 3%  
88 0.7% 1.3% Last Result
89 0.3% 0.6%  
90 0.2% 0.3%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.3% 99.8%  
68 0.4% 99.5%  
69 0.5% 99.1%  
70 1.1% 98.6%  
71 2% 98%  
72 2% 95%  
73 3% 93%  
74 9% 90%  
75 5% 81%  
76 11% 76%  
77 13% 65% Last Result, Median
78 8% 52%  
79 8% 45%  
80 6% 36%  
81 7% 31%  
82 8% 24%  
83 5% 16%  
84 3% 11%  
85 2% 8% Majority
86 5% 6%  
87 0.4% 1.4%  
88 0.6% 1.1%  
89 0.3% 0.5%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.4% 99.8%  
67 0.5% 99.5%  
68 0.6% 99.0%  
69 0.8% 98%  
70 2% 98%  
71 3% 96%  
72 3% 92%  
73 8% 89%  
74 6% 81%  
75 12% 75%  
76 11% 63% Last Result, Median
77 11% 52%  
78 5% 41%  
79 7% 35%  
80 6% 29%  
81 8% 23%  
82 5% 15%  
83 2% 9%  
84 2% 7%  
85 5% 6% Majority
86 0.3% 1.3%  
87 0.6% 0.9%  
88 0.1% 0.3%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.3% 99.9%  
64 0.3% 99.7%  
65 0.5% 99.4%  
66 0.4% 98.8%  
67 1.1% 98%  
68 7% 97%  
69 4% 91%  
70 3% 87%  
71 6% 83%  
72 10% 77%  
73 8% 67% Median
74 10% 59%  
75 8% 49%  
76 11% 41%  
77 11% 30%  
78 4% 19%  
79 6% 15%  
80 4% 9% Last Result
81 3% 5%  
82 1.0% 3%  
83 0.8% 2%  
84 0.1% 0.8%  
85 0.3% 0.7% Majority
86 0.3% 0.4%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.8% 99.7%  
64 0.8% 98.9%  
65 2% 98%  
66 2% 96%  
67 4% 94%  
68 3% 90% Last Result
69 4% 87%  
70 8% 82%  
71 10% 75%  
72 14% 65%  
73 11% 51% Median
74 7% 40%  
75 7% 33%  
76 7% 25%  
77 6% 19%  
78 6% 13%  
79 3% 6%  
80 2% 4%  
81 0.7% 2%  
82 0.6% 1.0%  
83 0.3% 0.5%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0.1% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.5% 99.8%  
62 0.3% 99.3%  
63 1.5% 99.0%  
64 1.0% 98%  
65 1.5% 97%  
66 7% 95%  
67 5% 88%  
68 3% 83%  
69 8% 80%  
70 12% 72%  
71 8% 60% Median
72 10% 52% Last Result
73 7% 43%  
74 9% 35%  
75 11% 26%  
76 4% 15%  
77 5% 11%  
78 3% 7%  
79 2% 4%  
80 0.8% 2%  
81 0.6% 1.0%  
82 0.1% 0.4%  
83 0.1% 0.3%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 0.1% 99.7%  
55 0.9% 99.6%  
56 1.4% 98.7%  
57 2% 97%  
58 4% 95%  
59 3% 91%  
60 8% 88% Last Result
61 6% 80%  
62 13% 74%  
63 7% 61%  
64 11% 54% Median
65 12% 43%  
66 11% 30%  
67 4% 19%  
68 6% 15%  
69 3% 10%  
70 3% 6%  
71 1.2% 3%  
72 1.0% 2%  
73 0.3% 0.7%  
74 0.2% 0.3%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 0.3% 99.7%  
48 0.7% 99.4%  
49 2% 98.7%  
50 1.3% 96%  
51 4% 95%  
52 8% 91%  
53 5% 83%  
54 12% 78% Median
55 9% 66%  
56 10% 57%  
57 9% 47%  
58 8% 37%  
59 9% 29%  
60 5% 20%  
61 6% 15% Last Result
62 3% 9%  
63 3% 6%  
64 0.8% 4%  
65 2% 3%  
66 0.5% 1.0%  
67 0.3% 0.5%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.4% 99.9%  
22 2% 99.5%  
23 2% 97%  
24 4% 95%  
25 6% 91%  
26 9% 85%  
27 8% 76%  
28 6% 68% Median
29 10% 61%  
30 10% 51%  
31 8% 41%  
32 10% 34%  
33 5% 24%  
34 8% 19%  
35 3% 11% Last Result
36 5% 8%  
37 2% 3%  
38 0.4% 2%  
39 0.6% 1.2%  
40 0.3% 0.6%  
41 0.1% 0.3%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations