Opinion Poll by Respons Analyse, 3–7 January 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 29.7% 27.9–31.6% 27.4–32.1% 26.9–32.6% 26.1–33.5%
Høyre 25.0% 26.0% 24.2–27.8% 23.8–28.3% 23.4–28.8% 22.5–29.7%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 11.5% 10.3–12.9% 9.9–13.3% 9.6–13.6% 9.1–14.3%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 10.5% 9.3–11.8% 9.0–12.2% 8.7–12.5% 8.2–13.2%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 6.7% 5.8–7.8% 5.5–8.1% 5.3–8.4% 4.9–9.0%
Venstre 4.4% 4.4% 3.7–5.3% 3.5–5.6% 3.3–5.9% 3.0–6.3%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.8% 3.1–4.7% 2.9–5.0% 2.8–5.2% 2.5–5.6%
Rødt 2.4% 3.1% 2.5–3.9% 2.3–4.2% 2.2–4.4% 1.9–4.8%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 2.8% 2.2–3.6% 2.1–3.8% 1.9–4.0% 1.7–4.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 55 51–58 49–60 48–60 47–62
Høyre 45 47 43–51 43–52 42–53 41–55
Fremskrittspartiet 27 21 19–23 18–24 17–25 16–26
Senterpartiet 19 19 17–21 16–22 15–23 15–24
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 12 10–14 10–15 9–15 9–16
Venstre 8 8 2–10 2–10 2–10 2–11
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 1–8 1–9 1–9 1–10
Rødt 1 2 1–2 1–7 1–8 1–8
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 1 1–2 1–2 0–7 0–8

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.3% 99.9%  
47 0.7% 99.6%  
48 2% 99.0%  
49 2% 97% Last Result
50 3% 95%  
51 10% 92%  
52 7% 82%  
53 11% 75%  
54 10% 63%  
55 15% 54% Median
56 8% 39%  
57 15% 31%  
58 6% 15%  
59 4% 9%  
60 3% 5%  
61 1.1% 2%  
62 0.7% 1.0%  
63 0.1% 0.3%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.2% 99.8%  
41 1.3% 99.6%  
42 3% 98%  
43 8% 95%  
44 5% 87%  
45 16% 82% Last Result
46 7% 66%  
47 12% 59% Median
48 12% 47%  
49 12% 35%  
50 6% 23%  
51 10% 17%  
52 3% 7%  
53 3% 4%  
54 0.3% 1.0%  
55 0.3% 0.7%  
56 0.3% 0.3%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 2% 99.9%  
17 2% 98%  
18 5% 96%  
19 14% 91%  
20 17% 77%  
21 24% 60% Median
22 21% 36%  
23 8% 15%  
24 3% 7%  
25 3% 4%  
26 1.0% 1.4%  
27 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.2% 100%  
15 3% 99.7%  
16 3% 97%  
17 9% 94%  
18 25% 85%  
19 23% 60% Last Result, Median
20 14% 37%  
21 13% 23%  
22 6% 10%  
23 2% 3%  
24 0.9% 1.3%  
25 0.3% 0.4%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.2% 100%  
9 2% 99.8%  
10 11% 97%  
11 18% 86% Last Result
12 26% 68% Median
13 22% 42%  
14 12% 19%  
15 5% 7%  
16 2% 2%  
17 0.3% 0.4%  
18 0% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 20% 100%  
3 4% 80%  
4 0% 75%  
5 0% 75%  
6 0% 75%  
7 14% 75%  
8 34% 62% Last Result, Median
9 17% 28%  
10 9% 11%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0.4% 0.5%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 11% 99.9%  
2 16% 89%  
3 29% 73% Median
4 0% 44%  
5 0% 44%  
6 0% 44%  
7 21% 44%  
8 16% 23% Last Result
9 7% 8%  
10 0.7% 0.9%  
11 0.1% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 39% 100% Last Result
2 54% 60% Median
3 0% 6%  
4 0% 6%  
5 0% 6%  
6 0.1% 6%  
7 3% 6%  
8 2% 3%  
9 0.4% 0.5%  
10 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 61% 97% Last Result, Median
2 32% 35%  
3 0.6% 4%  
4 0% 3%  
5 0% 3%  
6 0% 3%  
7 2% 3%  
8 1.4% 1.5%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 99 100% 95–103 93–104 92–105 89–107
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 92 98% 87–97 86–98 85–99 83–101
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 89 93% 85–94 84–95 83–96 81–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 88 80% 84–92 82–93 81–95 79–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 87 77% 83–92 82–93 81–94 78–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 86 69% 82–91 80–92 79–92 77–95
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 81 20% 77–85 76–87 74–88 72–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 80 13% 74–85 74–86 73–87 71–90
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 80 7% 75–84 74–85 73–86 70–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 78 6% 73–84 73–85 72–86 69–88
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 75 0.1% 70–81 69–81 68–82 66–84
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 74 0% 70–78 68–80 67–80 65–82
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 62 70 0% 66–74 65–76 64–77 62–80
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 68 0% 64–73 63–74 62–74 59–76
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 67 0% 63–71 62–72 61–73 59–75
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 59 0% 54–64 53–64 51–66 48–68
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 30 0% 26–35 25–36 23–37 21–39

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0.1% 100%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.1% 99.9%  
89 0.3% 99.8%  
90 0.5% 99.4%  
91 1.2% 98.9%  
92 1.5% 98%  
93 2% 96%  
94 4% 95%  
95 7% 90%  
96 9% 83%  
97 11% 74%  
98 9% 63% Median
99 13% 54%  
100 10% 41%  
101 6% 30%  
102 8% 24%  
103 10% 17%  
104 4% 7%  
105 1.0% 3%  
106 0.9% 2%  
107 0.8% 1.0% Last Result
108 0.1% 0.2%  
109 0.1% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100%  
82 0.2% 99.9%  
83 0.5% 99.7%  
84 1.1% 99.3%  
85 1.5% 98% Majority
86 3% 97%  
87 8% 93%  
88 7% 85% Last Result
89 5% 78%  
90 7% 73% Median
91 9% 67%  
92 11% 58%  
93 7% 47%  
94 11% 39%  
95 7% 29%  
96 7% 21%  
97 9% 14%  
98 2% 5%  
99 2% 3%  
100 1.2% 2%  
101 0.4% 0.7%  
102 0.1% 0.3%  
103 0.1% 0.2%  
104 0.1% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.2% 99.8%  
81 0.6% 99.5% Last Result
82 1.4% 98.9%  
83 1.1% 98%  
84 4% 97%  
85 9% 93% Majority
86 6% 83%  
87 5% 77%  
88 14% 72%  
89 10% 59% Median
90 14% 49%  
91 9% 35%  
92 9% 26%  
93 3% 17%  
94 6% 14%  
95 3% 8%  
96 2% 5%  
97 0.7% 2%  
98 0.9% 2%  
99 0.5% 0.8%  
100 0.2% 0.3%  
101 0.1% 0.2%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.2% 99.8%  
79 0.3% 99.6%  
80 0.9% 99.3% Last Result
81 2% 98%  
82 2% 97%  
83 4% 95%  
84 12% 91%  
85 4% 80% Majority
86 9% 75%  
87 11% 66%  
88 10% 54% Median
89 14% 44%  
90 10% 30%  
91 6% 21%  
92 6% 15%  
93 4% 9%  
94 2% 5%  
95 1.3% 3%  
96 0.9% 2%  
97 0.6% 1.0%  
98 0.2% 0.4%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100%  
77 0.2% 99.9%  
78 0.2% 99.7%  
79 0.6% 99.5%  
80 1.2% 98.9% Last Result
81 2% 98%  
82 2% 96%  
83 6% 94%  
84 11% 88%  
85 6% 77% Majority
86 10% 71%  
87 14% 61% Median
88 9% 46%  
89 11% 38%  
90 11% 27%  
91 3% 16%  
92 3% 13%  
93 5% 10%  
94 3% 5%  
95 0.8% 2%  
96 0.6% 1.2%  
97 0.4% 0.6%  
98 0.2% 0.3%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.3% 99.9%  
77 0.4% 99.6%  
78 0.9% 99.2%  
79 1.3% 98% Last Result
80 2% 97%  
81 3% 95%  
82 8% 92%  
83 9% 84%  
84 6% 74%  
85 17% 69% Majority
86 10% 52% Median
87 9% 42%  
88 10% 33%  
89 9% 22%  
90 3% 14%  
91 6% 11%  
92 3% 5%  
93 0.7% 2%  
94 1.0% 2%  
95 0.3% 0.6%  
96 0.1% 0.3%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.2% 99.8%  
72 0.6% 99.6%  
73 0.9% 99.0%  
74 1.3% 98%  
75 2% 97%  
76 4% 95%  
77 6% 91%  
78 6% 85%  
79 10% 79%  
80 14% 70% Median
81 10% 56%  
82 11% 46%  
83 9% 34%  
84 4% 25%  
85 12% 20% Majority
86 4% 9%  
87 2% 5%  
88 2% 3%  
89 0.9% 2% Last Result
90 0.3% 0.7%  
91 0.2% 0.4%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.3% 99.9%  
71 0.5% 99.6%  
72 0.9% 99.1%  
73 2% 98%  
74 9% 96%  
75 3% 87%  
76 6% 84%  
77 6% 78% Last Result
78 9% 73% Median
79 11% 64%  
80 9% 54%  
81 7% 45%  
82 9% 38%  
83 12% 29%  
84 4% 17%  
85 6% 13% Majority
86 4% 7%  
87 2% 3%  
88 0.5% 1.5%  
89 0.3% 1.0%  
90 0.5% 0.7%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.2% 99.8%  
70 0.5% 99.7%  
71 0.9% 99.2%  
72 0.7% 98%  
73 2% 98%  
74 3% 95%  
75 6% 92%  
76 3% 86%  
77 9% 83%  
78 9% 74%  
79 14% 65% Median
80 10% 51%  
81 14% 41%  
82 5% 28%  
83 6% 23%  
84 9% 17%  
85 4% 7% Majority
86 1.1% 3%  
87 1.4% 2%  
88 0.6% 1.1% Last Result
89 0.2% 0.5%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.3% 99.8%  
70 0.7% 99.5%  
71 1.2% 98.8%  
72 2% 98%  
73 9% 95%  
74 4% 87%  
75 7% 83%  
76 8% 75% Last Result
77 7% 68% Median
78 15% 60%  
79 5% 46%  
80 9% 40%  
81 9% 31%  
82 9% 23%  
83 2% 14%  
84 5% 12%  
85 3% 6% Majority
86 2% 3%  
87 0.4% 1.0%  
88 0.1% 0.6%  
89 0.4% 0.5%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.2% 99.8%  
66 0.5% 99.6%  
67 1.2% 99.1%  
68 2% 98%  
69 2% 96%  
70 5% 94%  
71 8% 89%  
72 13% 81%  
73 6% 68%  
74 9% 62%  
75 12% 53%  
76 8% 41% Median
77 7% 33%  
78 4% 26%  
79 8% 22%  
80 2% 14% Last Result
81 8% 12%  
82 3% 4%  
83 0.6% 1.5%  
84 0.7% 0.8%  
85 0.1% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.2% 99.9%  
65 0.5% 99.6%  
66 0.6% 99.2%  
67 1.4% 98.5%  
68 3% 97% Last Result
69 3% 94%  
70 11% 91%  
71 8% 80%  
72 7% 72%  
73 10% 65%  
74 11% 55% Median
75 16% 44%  
76 8% 28%  
77 8% 20%  
78 6% 12%  
79 1.2% 6%  
80 3% 5%  
81 1.3% 2%  
82 0.4% 0.7%  
83 0.1% 0.3%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.8% 99.8% Last Result
63 0.9% 99.0%  
64 1.0% 98%  
65 4% 97%  
66 10% 93%  
67 8% 83%  
68 6% 76%  
69 10% 70%  
70 13% 59% Median
71 9% 46%  
72 11% 37%  
73 9% 26%  
74 7% 17%  
75 4% 10%  
76 2% 5%  
77 1.5% 4%  
78 1.2% 2%  
79 0.5% 1.1%  
80 0.3% 0.6%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.4% 99.8%  
60 0.3% 99.4%  
61 1.0% 99.1%  
62 3% 98%  
63 5% 95%  
64 8% 90%  
65 7% 82%  
66 9% 75%  
67 11% 66%  
68 11% 55% Median
69 8% 44%  
70 12% 36%  
71 5% 24%  
72 4% 19% Last Result
73 9% 15%  
74 4% 6%  
75 1.0% 2%  
76 0.9% 1.4%  
77 0.2% 0.5%  
78 0.2% 0.3%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.3% 99.9%  
59 0.6% 99.6%  
60 1.5% 99.1% Last Result
61 2% 98%  
62 5% 96%  
63 4% 91%  
64 14% 87%  
65 9% 73%  
66 9% 65%  
67 17% 56% Median
68 7% 39%  
69 10% 32%  
70 12% 23%  
71 5% 11%  
72 3% 6%  
73 1.1% 3%  
74 1.0% 2%  
75 0.5% 0.8%  
76 0.2% 0.3%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.4% 99.8%  
49 0.6% 99.4%  
50 0.5% 98.8%  
51 1.4% 98%  
52 2% 97%  
53 2% 95%  
54 7% 94%  
55 4% 87%  
56 8% 83%  
57 5% 75%  
58 16% 69% Median
59 13% 53%  
60 10% 40%  
61 6% 31% Last Result
62 11% 25%  
63 3% 13%  
64 6% 10%  
65 2% 5%  
66 1.2% 3%  
67 0.6% 1.4%  
68 0.5% 0.8%  
69 0.2% 0.3%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.3% 100%  
21 0.4% 99.6%  
22 1.2% 99.2%  
23 1.1% 98%  
24 1.5% 97%  
25 1.0% 95%  
26 6% 94%  
27 8% 88%  
28 7% 80%  
29 11% 73%  
30 13% 62% Median
31 6% 49%  
32 11% 43%  
33 9% 32%  
34 9% 24%  
35 5% 14% Last Result
36 5% 9%  
37 3% 5%  
38 1.1% 2%  
39 0.4% 0.7%  
40 0.2% 0.3%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations