Opinion Poll by Norfakta, 8–9 January 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 27.7% 25.9–29.6% 25.4–30.1% 25.0–30.6% 24.2–31.5%
Høyre 25.0% 24.7% 23.0–26.5% 22.5–27.0% 22.1–27.5% 21.3–28.4%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 12.5% 11.2–13.9% 10.9–14.3% 10.6–14.7% 10.0–15.4%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 12.0% 10.8–13.4% 10.4–13.8% 10.1–14.2% 9.6–14.9%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.4% 6.4–8.6% 6.2–8.9% 5.9–9.2% 5.5–9.8%
Rødt 2.4% 3.9% 3.2–4.8% 3.0–5.1% 2.9–5.3% 2.6–5.8%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.8% 3.1–4.7% 2.9–5.0% 2.8–5.2% 2.5–5.6%
Venstre 4.4% 3.3% 2.7–4.1% 2.5–4.4% 2.4–4.6% 2.1–5.0%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 2.8% 2.2–3.6% 2.1–3.8% 1.9–4.0% 1.7–4.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 51 48–55 46–55 45–56 44–59
Høyre 45 45 42–50 41–50 40–51 39–53
Senterpartiet 19 24 20–25 20–26 19–27 18–28
Fremskrittspartiet 27 22 20–25 19–25 18–26 17–27
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 14 12–16 11–16 11–17 10–18
Rødt 1 2 2–9 2–9 2–9 1–10
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 2–8 1–9 1–9 1–10
Venstre 8 2 2–7 2–8 2–8 1–9
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–7 0–8

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.3% 99.9%  
44 1.2% 99.6%  
45 2% 98%  
46 2% 97%  
47 3% 95%  
48 10% 91%  
49 14% 82% Last Result
50 6% 68%  
51 22% 62% Median
52 7% 40%  
53 5% 33%  
54 9% 29%  
55 15% 20%  
56 2% 4%  
57 1.1% 2%  
58 0.4% 1.4%  
59 0.8% 1.0%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.3% 99.9%  
39 1.0% 99.5%  
40 2% 98.6%  
41 4% 97%  
42 6% 93%  
43 15% 87%  
44 11% 71%  
45 16% 60% Last Result, Median
46 9% 45%  
47 9% 35%  
48 5% 26%  
49 5% 21%  
50 11% 15%  
51 2% 4%  
52 0.8% 1.5%  
53 0.4% 0.6%  
54 0.2% 0.2%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.2% 100%  
18 0.4% 99.8%  
19 2% 99.4% Last Result
20 10% 97%  
21 16% 87%  
22 7% 71%  
23 8% 65%  
24 27% 56% Median
25 23% 29%  
26 4% 7%  
27 1.5% 3%  
28 1.3% 2%  
29 0.4% 0.4%  
30 0% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.4% 99.9%  
18 3% 99.4%  
19 6% 97%  
20 10% 91%  
21 21% 81%  
22 17% 59% Median
23 13% 42%  
24 18% 29%  
25 7% 11%  
26 2% 4%  
27 2% 2% Last Result
28 0.2% 0.4%  
29 0.1% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 1.1% 99.9%  
11 6% 98.7% Last Result
12 16% 93%  
13 24% 77%  
14 20% 53% Median
15 20% 33%  
16 8% 13%  
17 3% 4%  
18 0.6% 0.8%  
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100% Last Result
2 57% 98% Median
3 0% 40%  
4 0% 40%  
5 0% 40%  
6 0% 40%  
7 8% 40%  
8 18% 32%  
9 12% 14%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.2% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 10% 99.9%  
2 10% 90%  
3 43% 80% Median
4 0% 38%  
5 0% 38%  
6 0% 38%  
7 9% 38%  
8 23% 29% Last Result
9 5% 6%  
10 1.3% 2%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100%  
2 84% 98% Median
3 2% 13%  
4 0% 12%  
5 0% 12%  
6 0% 12%  
7 5% 12%  
8 6% 7% Last Result
9 1.2% 1.3%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 70% 98% Last Result, Median
2 25% 29%  
3 1.3% 4%  
4 0% 3%  
5 0% 3%  
6 0% 3%  
7 1.3% 3%  
8 1.2% 1.3%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 98 100% 93–103 92–104 91–105 88–107
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 94 99.6% 89–98 88–100 86–102 85–103
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 94 99.7% 90–100 88–100 87–101 85–103
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 93 98% 88–97 86–99 85–101 83–102
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 90 89% 84–94 83–95 82–96 79–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 89 81% 83–92 82–94 80–94 77–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 80 15% 76–85 74–86 73–88 71–89
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 79 5% 74–84 73–84 71–86 70–87
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 76 2% 72–81 70–83 68–84 67–86
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 75 0.4% 71–80 69–81 67–83 66–84
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 75 0.1% 69–79 68–79 67–80 64–82
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 62 71 0% 66–76 65–77 64–78 62–81
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 71 0% 66–75 65–76 64–77 62–79
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 68 0% 63–72 62–73 61–74 59–76
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 65 0% 61–69 60–70 58–71 56–72
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 53 0% 48–57 47–59 46–60 44–62
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 30 0% 26–35 25–36 25–37 23–40

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0% 100%  
87 0.2% 99.9%  
88 0.3% 99.7%  
89 0.2% 99.5%  
90 0.8% 99.2%  
91 3% 98%  
92 2% 96%  
93 5% 93%  
94 5% 88%  
95 3% 83%  
96 17% 80% Median
97 4% 63%  
98 13% 59%  
99 6% 46%  
100 13% 40%  
101 10% 27%  
102 6% 17%  
103 3% 11%  
104 4% 7%  
105 2% 3%  
106 0.8% 2%  
107 0.9% 1.0% Last Result
108 0.1% 0.2%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0.2% 99.8%  
85 0.6% 99.6% Majority
86 2% 99.0%  
87 2% 97%  
88 1.0% 96%  
89 5% 95%  
90 3% 90%  
91 8% 87%  
92 6% 78% Median
93 15% 72%  
94 15% 57%  
95 13% 42%  
96 5% 30%  
97 9% 24%  
98 6% 15%  
99 2% 9%  
100 2% 6%  
101 1.1% 4%  
102 3% 3%  
103 0.4% 0.9%  
104 0.2% 0.4%  
105 0.1% 0.2%  
106 0.1% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0.1% 100%  
84 0.1% 99.8%  
85 1.3% 99.7% Majority
86 0.6% 98%  
87 2% 98%  
88 1.3% 95% Last Result
89 3% 94%  
90 5% 91%  
91 8% 86%  
92 11% 78%  
93 10% 67% Median
94 15% 57%  
95 5% 42%  
96 13% 37%  
97 5% 24%  
98 6% 19%  
99 2% 13%  
100 7% 11%  
101 2% 3%  
102 1.1% 2%  
103 0.5% 0.7%  
104 0.1% 0.2%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.2% 99.9%  
83 0.3% 99.7%  
84 1.4% 99.4%  
85 1.2% 98% Majority
86 2% 97%  
87 3% 95%  
88 4% 92%  
89 6% 88%  
90 8% 82%  
91 5% 74% Median
92 16% 69%  
93 16% 53%  
94 11% 37%  
95 6% 26%  
96 9% 20%  
97 3% 11%  
98 3% 8%  
99 1.5% 5%  
100 0.5% 4%  
101 2% 3%  
102 0.3% 0.6%  
103 0.2% 0.3%  
104 0.1% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.8%  
79 0.8% 99.8%  
80 0.2% 99.0% Last Result
81 0.6% 98.8%  
82 2% 98%  
83 1.4% 96%  
84 6% 95%  
85 5% 89% Majority
86 6% 84%  
87 7% 78%  
88 6% 71%  
89 11% 65%  
90 7% 54% Median
91 14% 47%  
92 10% 34%  
93 13% 23%  
94 3% 11%  
95 6% 8%  
96 1.2% 3%  
97 0.6% 2%  
98 0.5% 0.9%  
99 0.2% 0.4%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0.2% 99.9%  
77 0.8% 99.8%  
78 0.2% 99.0%  
79 0.3% 98.8% Last Result
80 2% 98.5%  
81 0.7% 97%  
82 5% 96%  
83 2% 91%  
84 7% 88%  
85 6% 81% Majority
86 8% 75%  
87 8% 68%  
88 9% 60%  
89 7% 51% Median
90 13% 44%  
91 10% 30%  
92 12% 20%  
93 3% 8%  
94 3% 5%  
95 1.0% 2%  
96 0.6% 1.0%  
97 0.3% 0.4%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.4% 99.9%  
72 1.0% 99.4%  
73 2% 98%  
74 2% 97%  
75 3% 94%  
76 6% 91%  
77 7% 85% Last Result
78 6% 78%  
79 12% 72% Median
80 12% 60%  
81 12% 49%  
82 5% 37%  
83 12% 32%  
84 5% 20%  
85 8% 15% Majority
86 3% 7%  
87 2% 4%  
88 1.1% 3%  
89 1.3% 2%  
90 0.2% 0.3%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.2% 99.9%  
70 0.9% 99.7%  
71 2% 98.8%  
72 2% 97%  
73 2% 95%  
74 3% 93%  
75 7% 90%  
76 7% 83% Last Result
77 13% 76%  
78 7% 63% Median
79 11% 56%  
80 12% 45%  
81 4% 33%  
82 11% 29%  
83 5% 18%  
84 8% 13%  
85 2% 5% Majority
86 1.2% 3%  
87 1.3% 2%  
88 0.2% 0.4%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.2% 99.9%  
67 0.3% 99.7%  
68 2% 99.4%  
69 0.5% 97%  
70 1.5% 96%  
71 3% 95%  
72 3% 92%  
73 9% 89% Median
74 6% 80%  
75 11% 74%  
76 16% 63%  
77 16% 47%  
78 5% 31%  
79 8% 26%  
80 6% 18%  
81 4% 12%  
82 3% 8%  
83 2% 5%  
84 1.2% 3%  
85 1.4% 2% Majority
86 0.3% 0.6%  
87 0.2% 0.3%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0.1% Last Result
90 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.2% 99.8%  
66 0.4% 99.5%  
67 3% 99.1%  
68 1.1% 97%  
69 2% 96%  
70 2% 94%  
71 6% 91%  
72 9% 85% Median
73 5% 76%  
74 13% 70%  
75 15% 58%  
76 15% 43%  
77 6% 28%  
78 8% 22%  
79 3% 13%  
80 5% 10%  
81 1.0% 5%  
82 2% 4%  
83 2% 3%  
84 0.6% 1.0%  
85 0.2% 0.4% Majority
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.7% 99.9%  
65 0.3% 99.2%  
66 0.4% 99.0%  
67 1.4% 98.5%  
68 3% 97% Last Result
69 5% 94%  
70 6% 89%  
71 5% 83%  
72 10% 79%  
73 5% 68%  
74 9% 63%  
75 9% 54% Median
76 19% 46%  
77 5% 26%  
78 5% 21%  
79 13% 17%  
80 2% 4%  
81 0.9% 2%  
82 0.3% 0.7%  
83 0.3% 0.4%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0.1% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 99.9%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.9% 99.8% Last Result
63 0.8% 98.9%  
64 2% 98%  
65 4% 97%  
66 3% 93%  
67 6% 89%  
68 10% 83% Median
69 13% 73%  
70 6% 60%  
71 13% 54%  
72 4% 41%  
73 17% 37%  
74 3% 20%  
75 5% 17%  
76 5% 12%  
77 2% 7%  
78 3% 4%  
79 0.8% 2%  
80 0.2% 0.8%  
81 0.3% 0.5%  
82 0.2% 0.3%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.2% 99.8%  
62 0.6% 99.6%  
63 1.1% 99.1%  
64 2% 98%  
65 4% 96%  
66 5% 92%  
67 13% 88%  
68 6% 75%  
69 11% 69% Median
70 8% 58%  
71 14% 50%  
72 6% 36%  
73 11% 30%  
74 8% 20%  
75 5% 12%  
76 3% 7%  
77 3% 4%  
78 0.5% 1.3%  
79 0.3% 0.8%  
80 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.2% 99.9%  
59 0.5% 99.6%  
60 1.0% 99.1%  
61 1.5% 98%  
62 4% 97%  
63 4% 93%  
64 7% 88%  
65 13% 82%  
66 7% 69%  
67 11% 62% Median
68 7% 51%  
69 12% 44%  
70 6% 32%  
71 10% 26%  
72 7% 15% Last Result
73 5% 9%  
74 2% 4%  
75 2% 2%  
76 0.2% 0.6%  
77 0.2% 0.4%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.2% 100%  
55 0.2% 99.8%  
56 0.2% 99.6%  
57 1.0% 99.4%  
58 1.5% 98%  
59 2% 97%  
60 2% 95% Last Result
61 7% 93%  
62 9% 86%  
63 6% 77%  
64 13% 70%  
65 13% 58% Median
66 15% 45%  
67 7% 30%  
68 12% 23%  
69 4% 11%  
70 3% 7%  
71 2% 4%  
72 0.9% 1.3%  
73 0.2% 0.4%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0% 100%  
43 0.2% 99.9%  
44 0.5% 99.7%  
45 0.5% 99.2%  
46 4% 98.7%  
47 2% 95%  
48 3% 93%  
49 5% 90%  
50 10% 85% Median
51 12% 75%  
52 9% 64%  
53 15% 55%  
54 9% 40%  
55 14% 31%  
56 4% 17%  
57 4% 13%  
58 2% 9%  
59 3% 7%  
60 2% 4%  
61 1.0% 2% Last Result
62 0.4% 0.9%  
63 0.1% 0.5%  
64 0.2% 0.3%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.3% 100%  
23 0.7% 99.7%  
24 1.5% 99.1%  
25 3% 98%  
26 7% 94%  
27 4% 87%  
28 7% 83%  
29 19% 76% Median
30 18% 57%  
31 10% 40%  
32 3% 30%  
33 5% 27%  
34 5% 21%  
35 11% 16% Last Result
36 2% 5%  
37 1.4% 4%  
38 1.1% 2%  
39 0.7% 1.2%  
40 0.2% 0.6%  
41 0.1% 0.4%  
42 0.1% 0.3%  
43 0.2% 0.2%  
44 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations