Opinion Poll by Kantar TNS, 3–10 January 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 28.1% 26.0–30.2% 25.5–30.8% 25.0–31.4% 24.0–32.4%
Høyre 25.0% 24.4% 22.5–26.5% 21.9–27.1% 21.4–27.6% 20.6–28.6%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 12.3% 10.8–13.9% 10.4–14.4% 10.1–14.8% 9.5–15.6%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 12.1% 10.7–13.8% 10.3–14.2% 10.0–14.6% 9.3–15.5%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.2% 6.2–8.6% 5.9–9.0% 5.6–9.3% 5.1–10.0%
Rødt 2.4% 4.6% 3.8–5.7% 3.5–6.1% 3.3–6.4% 3.0–6.9%
Venstre 4.4% 3.6% 2.8–4.6% 2.6–4.9% 2.5–5.1% 2.1–5.7%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.0% 2.4–4.0% 2.2–4.3% 2.0–4.5% 1.8–5.0%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 2.8% 2.1–3.7% 2.0–4.0% 1.8–4.2% 1.6–4.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 51 47–54 46–54 44–57 43–59
Høyre 45 45 42–47 41–48 39–48 37–52
Senterpartiet 19 22 20–25 19–26 18–26 17–29
Fremskrittspartiet 27 23 19–25 19–26 18–27 17–28
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 13 12–15 10–16 10–17 9–19
Rødt 1 8 7–10 2–11 2–11 1–13
Venstre 8 2 2–8 2–8 2–9 1–10
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 2 1–7 1–7 0–8 0–9
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 1 1–2 0–8 0–8 0–8

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.4% 99.9%  
43 2% 99.6%  
44 0.3% 98%  
45 2% 97%  
46 1.4% 96%  
47 15% 94%  
48 10% 79%  
49 6% 70% Last Result
50 2% 63%  
51 33% 61% Median
52 3% 28%  
53 13% 25%  
54 7% 12%  
55 1.3% 5%  
56 0.4% 4%  
57 1.1% 3%  
58 0.3% 2%  
59 1.2% 2%  
60 0.4% 0.5%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0% 99.9%  
36 0.1% 99.9%  
37 0.3% 99.7%  
38 0.7% 99.4%  
39 2% 98.8%  
40 2% 97%  
41 2% 95%  
42 5% 93%  
43 12% 88%  
44 13% 76%  
45 14% 63% Last Result, Median
46 21% 49%  
47 18% 28%  
48 8% 10%  
49 0.3% 2%  
50 0.3% 1.4%  
51 0.4% 1.1%  
52 0.4% 0.7%  
53 0.1% 0.3%  
54 0% 0.2%  
55 0% 0.2%  
56 0.2% 0.2%  
57 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 1.1% 99.9%  
18 2% 98.8%  
19 5% 97% Last Result
20 11% 91%  
21 27% 80%  
22 6% 53% Median
23 9% 47%  
24 20% 38%  
25 11% 18%  
26 5% 7%  
27 2% 2%  
28 0.2% 0.8%  
29 0.4% 0.6%  
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0% 100%  
16 0.1% 99.9%  
17 1.1% 99.8%  
18 3% 98.8%  
19 7% 96%  
20 8% 89%  
21 14% 81%  
22 15% 67%  
23 14% 51% Median
24 9% 38%  
25 23% 29%  
26 3% 6%  
27 2% 3% Last Result
28 0.5% 0.9%  
29 0.4% 0.4%  
30 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.2% 100%  
9 0.5% 99.8%  
10 6% 99.3%  
11 4% 94% Last Result
12 33% 90%  
13 11% 57% Median
14 33% 47%  
15 5% 14%  
16 4% 9%  
17 3% 5%  
18 0.8% 2%  
19 0.9% 0.9%  
20 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 1.1% 100% Last Result
2 9% 98.9%  
3 0% 90%  
4 0% 90%  
5 0% 90%  
6 0% 90%  
7 4% 90%  
8 49% 86% Median
9 10% 37%  
10 22% 27%  
11 4% 5%  
12 0.8% 2%  
13 0.6% 0.7%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.6% 100%  
2 75% 99.4% Median
3 0.5% 24%  
4 0% 23%  
5 0% 23%  
6 0% 23%  
7 13% 23%  
8 6% 10% Last Result
9 2% 4%  
10 1.0% 1.3%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 45% 96%  
2 4% 51% Median
3 35% 47%  
4 0% 12%  
5 0% 12%  
6 0% 12%  
7 8% 12%  
8 3% 4% Last Result
9 0.7% 0.8%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 10% 100%  
1 71% 90% Last Result, Median
2 10% 19%  
3 0.4% 9%  
4 0% 9%  
5 0% 9%  
6 0% 9%  
7 0.9% 9%  
8 7% 8%  
9 0.4% 0.4%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 95 99.8% 92–101 89–102 87–104 86–107
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 95 99.7% 90–100 89–101 88–102 85–106
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 94 99.4% 91–98 88–100 86–102 84–105
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 89 95% 87–95 85–98 84–99 81–101
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 87 77% 84–93 82–94 79–97 77–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 86 74% 83–90 80–92 78–93 76–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 76 3% 73–83 70–84 70–85 67–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 74 0.6% 72–81 69–82 69–83 66–85
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 75 0.6% 71–78 69–81 67–83 64–85
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 74 0.2% 68–77 67–80 65–82 62–83
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 72 0.1% 69–77 67–79 65–80 62–82
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 72 0% 65–74 64–75 63–77 61–81
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 69 0% 63–71 61–72 60–73 58–75
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 65 0% 59–67 59–68 57–71 56–72
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 50 0% 47–55 45–59 43–61 41–62
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 29 0% 24–34 24–35 23–36 21–37

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0.1% 100%  
85 0.2% 99.8% Majority
86 0.4% 99.7%  
87 3% 99.2%  
88 0.8% 97%  
89 3% 96%  
90 0.6% 93%  
91 0.9% 92%  
92 2% 91%  
93 3% 89%  
94 29% 86%  
95 20% 58% Median
96 3% 38%  
97 13% 35%  
98 3% 22%  
99 3% 19%  
100 5% 16%  
101 6% 12%  
102 2% 6%  
103 2% 4%  
104 1.2% 3%  
105 0.4% 1.3%  
106 0.3% 0.9%  
107 0.4% 0.6%  
108 0% 0.2%  
109 0.1% 0.1%  
110 0% 0.1%  
111 0.1% 0.1%  
112 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 99.9%  
82 0% 99.9%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0.1% 99.8%  
85 0.4% 99.7% Majority
86 0.2% 99.3%  
87 0.4% 99.0%  
88 2% 98.6%  
89 7% 97%  
90 1.1% 90%  
91 0.8% 89%  
92 3% 88%  
93 6% 85%  
94 5% 78% Median
95 29% 73%  
96 7% 45%  
97 5% 38%  
98 1.3% 33%  
99 16% 32%  
100 10% 16%  
101 4% 6%  
102 0.6% 3%  
103 0.9% 2%  
104 0.4% 1.1%  
105 0.2% 0.8%  
106 0.3% 0.6%  
107 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0.1% 100%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.2% 99.9%  
84 0.3% 99.7%  
85 0.4% 99.4% Majority
86 3% 99.0%  
87 1.2% 96%  
88 3% 95%  
89 0.5% 92%  
90 1.1% 92%  
91 5% 90%  
92 3% 86%  
93 31% 83%  
94 21% 52% Median
95 5% 31%  
96 6% 26%  
97 9% 20%  
98 2% 11%  
99 4% 9%  
100 1.1% 5%  
101 1.2% 4%  
102 2% 3%  
103 0.3% 1.3%  
104 0.3% 1.0%  
105 0.7% 0.7%  
106 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.1% 100%  
79 0% 99.9%  
80 0.1% 99.9%  
81 0.9% 99.8%  
82 0.5% 98.9%  
83 0.2% 98%  
84 3% 98%  
85 2% 95% Majority
86 2% 93%  
87 14% 91%  
88 19% 77% Last Result
89 19% 58% Median
90 9% 39%  
91 1.2% 30%  
92 2% 29%  
93 7% 28%  
94 7% 20%  
95 4% 13%  
96 3% 9%  
97 0.6% 6%  
98 3% 6%  
99 2% 3%  
100 0.7% 2%  
101 0.6% 0.8%  
102 0.1% 0.3%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100%  
77 2% 99.9%  
78 0.1% 98%  
79 0.3% 98%  
80 0.9% 97% Last Result
81 1.4% 97%  
82 2% 95%  
83 1.5% 93%  
84 14% 92%  
85 3% 77% Majority
86 14% 74%  
87 20% 60% Median
88 8% 40%  
89 7% 32%  
90 5% 25%  
91 1.3% 20%  
92 5% 19%  
93 7% 13%  
94 2% 7%  
95 0.6% 5%  
96 0.4% 4%  
97 3% 4%  
98 0.4% 1.1%  
99 0.2% 0.6%  
100 0.3% 0.4%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0% 99.9%  
76 2% 99.9%  
77 0.3% 98%  
78 0.4% 98%  
79 0.7% 97% Last Result
80 2% 96%  
81 2% 94%  
82 1.3% 92%  
83 14% 91%  
84 3% 77%  
85 20% 74% Majority
86 23% 54% Median
87 5% 31%  
88 1.1% 26%  
89 13% 25%  
90 3% 12%  
91 3% 9%  
92 2% 6%  
93 2% 4%  
94 0.7% 2%  
95 0.4% 1.3%  
96 0.1% 0.8%  
97 0.5% 0.8%  
98 0.1% 0.3%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.3% 99.8%  
68 0.2% 99.5%  
69 1.2% 99.3%  
70 4% 98%  
71 0.4% 94%  
72 1.4% 94%  
73 3% 92%  
74 19% 89%  
75 21% 71%  
76 4% 50% Median
77 9% 47% Last Result
78 10% 37%  
79 5% 28%  
80 3% 22%  
81 6% 20%  
82 3% 14%  
83 5% 11%  
84 3% 7%  
85 0.9% 3% Majority
86 0.3% 2%  
87 1.4% 2%  
88 0.2% 0.6%  
89 0.3% 0.3%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.4% 99.8%  
67 0.2% 99.4%  
68 1.0% 99.2%  
69 4% 98%  
70 1.1% 94%  
71 1.4% 93%  
72 3% 92%  
73 24% 89%  
74 21% 66%  
75 4% 44% Median
76 9% 40% Last Result
77 7% 31%  
78 8% 23%  
79 3% 15%  
80 2% 12%  
81 2% 10%  
82 5% 8%  
83 2% 3%  
84 0.3% 0.9%  
85 0.2% 0.6% Majority
86 0.1% 0.4%  
87 0.1% 0.3%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.7% 100%  
65 0.3% 99.3%  
66 0.3% 99.0%  
67 2% 98.7%  
68 1.3% 97%  
69 1.1% 96%  
70 4% 95%  
71 2% 91%  
72 9% 89%  
73 6% 80% Median
74 5% 74%  
75 21% 69%  
76 31% 48%  
77 3% 17%  
78 5% 14%  
79 1.1% 9%  
80 0.5% 8%  
81 3% 8%  
82 1.1% 5%  
83 3% 4%  
84 0.4% 1.0%  
85 0.3% 0.6% Majority
86 0.2% 0.3%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0% 99.9%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0% 99.9%  
62 0.4% 99.8%  
63 0.3% 99.4%  
64 0.4% 99.1%  
65 1.2% 98.7%  
66 2% 97%  
67 2% 96%  
68 6% 94%  
69 5% 88%  
70 3% 83%  
71 3% 80%  
72 13% 78% Median
73 3% 65%  
74 20% 62%  
75 28% 42%  
76 3% 14%  
77 2% 11%  
78 0.9% 9%  
79 0.6% 8%  
80 3% 7%  
81 0.8% 4%  
82 3% 3%  
83 0.4% 0.8%  
84 0.2% 0.3%  
85 0.1% 0.2% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 2% 100%  
63 0.1% 98%  
64 0.1% 98%  
65 0.5% 98%  
66 0.7% 97%  
67 2% 97%  
68 4% 95% Last Result
69 3% 91%  
70 3% 88%  
71 19% 85%  
72 24% 67%  
73 11% 42% Median
74 3% 32%  
75 7% 29%  
76 5% 21%  
77 9% 16%  
78 0.9% 7%  
79 3% 6%  
80 0.9% 3%  
81 0.9% 2%  
82 0.8% 1.1%  
83 0.2% 0.3%  
84 0% 0.2%  
85 0.1% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0% 99.9%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.2% 99.8%  
61 0.6% 99.7%  
62 0.6% 99.0%  
63 2% 98%  
64 1.5% 96%  
65 5% 95%  
66 4% 90%  
67 6% 86%  
68 4% 79%  
69 1.4% 76%  
70 2% 74% Median
71 11% 73%  
72 27% 62%  
73 22% 34%  
74 5% 13%  
75 4% 7%  
76 0.2% 4%  
77 1.5% 3%  
78 0.2% 2%  
79 0.3% 2%  
80 0.6% 1.4% Last Result
81 0.6% 0.8%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0% 99.9%  
57 0.2% 99.9%  
58 0.3% 99.7%  
59 2% 99.4%  
60 2% 98%  
61 3% 96%  
62 2% 93%  
63 5% 91%  
64 7% 86%  
65 14% 79%  
66 5% 65%  
67 4% 60%  
68 2% 56% Median
69 8% 54%  
70 21% 46%  
71 19% 26%  
72 4% 7% Last Result
73 1.2% 3%  
74 0.2% 2%  
75 0.9% 1.4%  
76 0% 0.5%  
77 0.1% 0.4%  
78 0.1% 0.3%  
79 0.2% 0.2%  
80 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0.4% 99.9%  
56 0.5% 99.5%  
57 2% 99.0%  
58 1.2% 97%  
59 13% 95%  
60 7% 83% Last Result
61 5% 76%  
62 1.5% 71%  
63 8% 69%  
64 9% 61% Median
65 34% 52%  
66 8% 19%  
67 2% 11%  
68 4% 9%  
69 1.4% 5%  
70 0.7% 4%  
71 2% 3%  
72 0.8% 1.3%  
73 0.2% 0.4%  
74 0.2% 0.3%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.6% 99.9%  
42 0.4% 99.3%  
43 2% 98.9%  
44 0.7% 97%  
45 2% 96%  
46 2% 94%  
47 6% 92%  
48 10% 86%  
49 21% 76% Median
50 5% 55%  
51 6% 50%  
52 14% 44%  
53 18% 30%  
54 0.9% 12%  
55 3% 12%  
56 1.2% 9%  
57 1.1% 7%  
58 1.1% 6%  
59 0.5% 5%  
60 0.6% 5%  
61 2% 4% Last Result
62 2% 2%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.9% 99.8%  
22 0.8% 98.9%  
23 2% 98%  
24 22% 96%  
25 3% 74%  
26 5% 71% Median
27 10% 65%  
28 3% 56%  
29 15% 53%  
30 20% 38%  
31 4% 18%  
32 2% 13%  
33 1.0% 11%  
34 5% 10%  
35 2% 6% Last Result
36 2% 3%  
37 1.1% 1.4%  
38 0.1% 0.3%  
39 0.1% 0.2%  
40 0% 0.2%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations