Opinion Poll by Ipsos MMI, 21–23 January 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 29.8% 28.0–31.8% 27.4–32.4% 27.0–32.9% 26.1–33.8%
Høyre 25.0% 22.8% 21.1–24.6% 20.6–25.1% 20.2–25.6% 19.4–26.5%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 13.0% 11.7–14.6% 11.4–15.0% 11.0–15.4% 10.4–16.1%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 10.9% 9.7–12.3% 9.4–12.7% 9.1–13.1% 8.5–13.8%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 8.0% 7.0–9.3% 6.7–9.6% 6.4–10.0% 6.0–10.6%
Rødt 2.4% 4.2% 3.4–5.1% 3.2–5.4% 3.1–5.7% 2.7–6.2%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.2% 2.6–4.1% 2.4–4.3% 2.3–4.6% 2.0–5.0%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 2.7% 2.1–3.5% 2.0–3.7% 1.8–3.9% 1.6–4.3%
Venstre 4.4% 2.2% 1.7–3.0% 1.6–3.2% 1.5–3.4% 1.3–3.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 56 51–59 51–61 49–61 48–63
Høyre 45 42 38–46 38–47 37–47 35–49
Fremskrittspartiet 27 24 22–27 21–28 20–29 18–30
Senterpartiet 19 21 18–23 17–24 17–25 16–26
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 15 12–17 12–18 12–18 11–20
Rødt 1 8 2–9 2–10 2–10 1–11
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 2 1–7 1–8 1–8 1–9
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 1 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–8
Venstre 8 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.2% 99.8%  
48 0.5% 99.6%  
49 2% 99.1% Last Result
50 2% 97%  
51 6% 96%  
52 5% 90%  
53 10% 85%  
54 11% 75%  
55 14% 64%  
56 12% 51% Median
57 7% 38%  
58 16% 32%  
59 6% 16%  
60 4% 10%  
61 4% 6%  
62 1.2% 2%  
63 0.7% 0.9%  
64 0.1% 0.3%  
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.4% 99.9%  
36 1.0% 99.5%  
37 2% 98.5%  
38 7% 96%  
39 6% 90%  
40 10% 84%  
41 13% 74%  
42 11% 61% Median
43 15% 49%  
44 11% 35%  
45 12% 24% Last Result
46 6% 12%  
47 4% 6%  
48 1.5% 2%  
49 0.4% 0.8%  
50 0.3% 0.4%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.6% 100%  
19 0.9% 99.4%  
20 3% 98%  
21 5% 96%  
22 8% 91%  
23 17% 83%  
24 18% 66% Median
25 15% 48%  
26 19% 33%  
27 9% 15% Last Result
28 3% 6%  
29 2% 3%  
30 1.2% 1.4%  
31 0.2% 0.2%  
32 0% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.3% 99.9%  
16 2% 99.6%  
17 6% 98%  
18 11% 92%  
19 17% 81% Last Result
20 13% 64%  
21 25% 51% Median
22 11% 26%  
23 8% 15%  
24 4% 7%  
25 3% 3%  
26 0.6% 0.7%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.2% 100%  
11 1.4% 99.8% Last Result
12 9% 98%  
13 15% 89%  
14 20% 75%  
15 16% 54% Median
16 20% 38%  
17 12% 18%  
18 4% 6%  
19 1.2% 2%  
20 0.4% 0.6%  
21 0.1% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 1.0% 100% Last Result
2 38% 99.0%  
3 0.3% 61%  
4 0% 61%  
5 0% 61%  
6 0% 61%  
7 5% 61%  
8 31% 56% Median
9 17% 26%  
10 7% 9%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0.4% 0.4%  
13 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 37% 99.8% Last Result
2 43% 63% Median
3 9% 20%  
4 0.1% 11%  
5 0% 11%  
6 0% 11%  
7 3% 10%  
8 6% 7%  
9 1.4% 2%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 25% 100%  
1 49% 75% Median
2 15% 26%  
3 9% 10%  
4 0% 1.4%  
5 0% 1.4%  
6 0% 1.4%  
7 0.5% 1.4%  
8 0.7% 0.9% Last Result
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 17% 100%  
1 39% 83% Median
2 44% 44%  
3 0% 0.3%  
4 0% 0.2%  
5 0% 0.2%  
6 0% 0.2%  
7 0.1% 0.2%  
8 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 99 100% 94–104 93–105 92–107 90–109
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 97 99.9% 92–101 90–102 90–104 86–106
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 94 99.6% 89–99 88–101 87–102 85–104
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 93 98.6% 89–98 87–100 86–101 83–102
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 91 95% 86–96 84–97 83–98 81–100
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 90 89% 84–94 82–96 81–97 79–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 80 10% 75–84 74–86 73–87 71–89
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 62 79 7% 74–84 72–85 71–86 69–89
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 77 1.1% 73–81 71–83 71–84 68–86
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 76 0.5% 72–80 70–82 69–82 67–84
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 71 0% 67–76 65–78 65–79 63–81
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 70 0% 66–75 65–76 64–77 62–79
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 70 0% 64–73 63–75 62–76 60–78
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 68 0% 63–72 62–74 61–75 59–76
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 67 0% 62–71 61–72 60–73 57–76
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 45 0% 41–49 40–50 39–51 38–53
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 23 0% 20–26 19–27 19–28 17–30

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0% 99.9%  
88 0.2% 99.9%  
89 0.2% 99.7%  
90 0.4% 99.5%  
91 0.9% 99.1%  
92 2% 98%  
93 4% 96%  
94 3% 92%  
95 3% 89%  
96 9% 86%  
97 8% 78%  
98 11% 70%  
99 18% 59%  
100 6% 41%  
101 7% 34%  
102 11% 27% Median
103 4% 16%  
104 4% 12%  
105 3% 8%  
106 1.5% 4%  
107 2% 3%  
108 0.5% 1.1%  
109 0.3% 0.5%  
110 0.2% 0.2%  
111 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0.1% 100%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 0.2% 99.9% Majority
86 0.3% 99.7%  
87 0.2% 99.4%  
88 0.8% 99.2%  
89 0.6% 98%  
90 3% 98%  
91 4% 95%  
92 3% 91%  
93 5% 87%  
94 8% 83%  
95 7% 74%  
96 8% 67%  
97 15% 59%  
98 13% 44%  
99 8% 31%  
100 10% 22% Median
101 3% 12%  
102 4% 9%  
103 1.0% 5%  
104 3% 4%  
105 0.8% 1.3%  
106 0.4% 0.5%  
107 0.1% 0.2%  
108 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0.1% 100%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0.3% 99.8%  
85 0.4% 99.6% Majority
86 0.6% 99.2%  
87 2% 98.6%  
88 1.5% 96% Last Result
89 5% 95%  
90 4% 90%  
91 10% 86%  
92 11% 76%  
93 10% 65%  
94 6% 55%  
95 10% 49% Median
96 10% 39%  
97 8% 29%  
98 8% 21%  
99 4% 13%  
100 3% 9%  
101 3% 6%  
102 1.3% 3%  
103 1.1% 2%  
104 0.3% 0.6%  
105 0.1% 0.2%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0.1% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0.1% 100%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.5% 99.8%  
84 0.7% 99.3%  
85 0.4% 98.6% Majority
86 2% 98%  
87 2% 96%  
88 4% 94%  
89 5% 91%  
90 9% 86%  
91 16% 77%  
92 7% 61%  
93 8% 54%  
94 9% 46% Median
95 10% 37%  
96 7% 27%  
97 8% 20%  
98 3% 12%  
99 3% 8%  
100 3% 6%  
101 1.0% 3%  
102 1.1% 2%  
103 0.3% 0.5%  
104 0.1% 0.2%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 99.9% Last Result
80 0.3% 99.9%  
81 0.2% 99.6%  
82 0.9% 99.4%  
83 1.2% 98%  
84 2% 97%  
85 2% 95% Majority
86 4% 93%  
87 5% 89%  
88 8% 84%  
89 14% 76%  
90 12% 63%  
91 10% 50%  
92 8% 40% Median
93 7% 32%  
94 7% 25%  
95 7% 18%  
96 5% 11%  
97 2% 6%  
98 2% 4%  
99 0.8% 1.3%  
100 0.2% 0.5%  
101 0.2% 0.3%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.3% 100%  
79 0.4% 99.7%  
80 1.0% 99.2%  
81 2% 98%  
82 2% 96%  
83 2% 94%  
84 3% 92%  
85 5% 89% Majority
86 5% 84%  
87 5% 80%  
88 10% 75%  
89 14% 65% Median
90 8% 51%  
91 13% 44%  
92 7% 31%  
93 8% 24%  
94 8% 17%  
95 4% 9%  
96 2% 5%  
97 2% 3%  
98 1.1% 2%  
99 0.4% 0.6%  
100 0.1% 0.2%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.2% 99.8%  
71 0.6% 99.6%  
72 1.2% 99.0%  
73 2% 98%  
74 4% 96%  
75 7% 92%  
76 7% 86%  
77 12% 79% Last Result
78 6% 67%  
79 9% 61%  
80 13% 52% Median
81 8% 39%  
82 13% 31%  
83 4% 18%  
84 4% 13%  
85 4% 10% Majority
86 2% 5%  
87 1.1% 3%  
88 0.6% 2%  
89 0.6% 1.0%  
90 0.3% 0.5%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100% Last Result
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0% 99.9%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.2% 99.8%  
69 0.2% 99.6%  
70 0.5% 99.4%  
71 2% 98.9%  
72 2% 97%  
73 2% 95%  
74 4% 93%  
75 8% 88%  
76 9% 80%  
77 7% 71%  
78 13% 64%  
79 7% 51%  
80 15% 44%  
81 10% 29% Median
82 5% 20%  
83 4% 15%  
84 3% 11%  
85 3% 7% Majority
86 2% 4%  
87 1.0% 2%  
88 0.7% 1.5%  
89 0.6% 0.7%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.2% 99.7%  
69 0.6% 99.5%  
70 1.1% 98.8%  
71 3% 98%  
72 4% 95%  
73 5% 91%  
74 8% 86%  
75 13% 79%  
76 9% 66% Last Result
77 10% 57%  
78 10% 47% Median
79 9% 37%  
80 13% 28%  
81 6% 15%  
82 3% 10%  
83 4% 7%  
84 2% 3%  
85 0.4% 1.1% Majority
86 0.2% 0.7%  
87 0.4% 0.5%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.2% 99.9%  
67 0.3% 99.6%  
68 0.9% 99.3% Last Result
69 1.3% 98%  
70 3% 97%  
71 3% 94%  
72 5% 91%  
73 9% 86%  
74 10% 77%  
75 11% 66%  
76 11% 56%  
77 11% 45% Median
78 8% 34%  
79 12% 26%  
80 5% 14%  
81 3% 9%  
82 4% 6%  
83 1.0% 2%  
84 0.4% 0.9%  
85 0.1% 0.5% Majority
86 0.3% 0.4%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.2% 99.9%  
62 0.2% 99.8%  
63 0.6% 99.6%  
64 1.1% 98.9%  
65 4% 98%  
66 2% 94%  
67 5% 92%  
68 3% 87%  
69 11% 84%  
70 9% 72% Median
71 14% 63%  
72 15% 49%  
73 7% 34%  
74 6% 27%  
75 8% 21%  
76 4% 13%  
77 3% 9%  
78 3% 6%  
79 2% 3%  
80 0.4% 1.0%  
81 0.4% 0.6%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100% Last Result
61 0.2% 99.9%  
62 0.4% 99.6%  
63 2% 99.2%  
64 2% 98%  
65 3% 96%  
66 6% 93%  
67 6% 87%  
68 8% 81%  
69 10% 74%  
70 18% 63%  
71 8% 45% Median
72 11% 37%  
73 9% 26%  
74 4% 17%  
75 5% 13%  
76 3% 7%  
77 3% 4%  
78 0.8% 1.4%  
79 0.2% 0.6%  
80 0.3% 0.5%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.2% 99.9%  
60 0.7% 99.7%  
61 0.8% 99.0%  
62 2% 98%  
63 3% 96%  
64 4% 93%  
65 5% 89%  
66 5% 84%  
67 12% 79%  
68 8% 67% Median
69 7% 60%  
70 18% 53%  
71 10% 34%  
72 7% 25%  
73 8% 18%  
74 2% 9%  
75 3% 7%  
76 3% 5%  
77 1.0% 2%  
78 0.4% 0.7%  
79 0.2% 0.3%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.2% 99.9%  
59 0.8% 99.7%  
60 0.7% 98.9%  
61 2% 98%  
62 3% 96%  
63 4% 92%  
64 6% 88%  
65 5% 82%  
66 10% 78%  
67 10% 67% Median
68 9% 57%  
69 12% 49%  
70 12% 36%  
71 7% 24%  
72 9% 17%  
73 3% 8%  
74 2% 5%  
75 2% 3%  
76 0.8% 1.2%  
77 0.2% 0.4%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.4% 99.8%  
58 0.6% 99.4%  
59 1.0% 98.9%  
60 2% 98%  
61 4% 96%  
62 4% 92%  
63 5% 88%  
64 7% 82%  
65 8% 75%  
66 13% 68% Median
67 14% 54%  
68 9% 41%  
69 11% 31%  
70 5% 20%  
71 7% 15%  
72 5% 8% Last Result
73 2% 3%  
74 0.7% 2%  
75 0.5% 1.1%  
76 0.5% 0.6%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.3% 99.9%  
38 1.2% 99.6%  
39 3% 98%  
40 4% 96%  
41 7% 91%  
42 7% 84%  
43 13% 77%  
44 11% 64% Median
45 10% 54%  
46 15% 44%  
47 11% 29%  
48 7% 18%  
49 5% 11%  
50 3% 6%  
51 2% 3%  
52 0.6% 1.1%  
53 0.3% 0.6%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.4% 99.8%  
18 2% 99.5%  
19 5% 98%  
20 8% 93%  
21 16% 85%  
22 13% 69%  
23 18% 56% Median
24 17% 38%  
25 10% 21%  
26 4% 11%  
27 3% 7%  
28 3% 4%  
29 0.8% 2%  
30 0.6% 0.9%  
31 0.2% 0.3%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations