Opinion Poll by Kantar TNS, 28 January–2 February 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 26.5% 24.6–28.6% 24.1–29.1% 23.6–29.6% 22.7–30.7%
Høyre 25.0% 23.7% 21.8–25.7% 21.3–26.2% 20.9–26.7% 20.0–27.7%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 11.7% 10.3–13.2% 10.0–13.7% 9.6–14.1% 9.0–14.8%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 10.4% 9.2–11.9% 8.8–12.3% 8.5–12.7% 7.9–13.5%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 8.8% 7.7–10.2% 7.3–10.6% 7.1–11.0% 6.6–11.7%
Rødt 2.4% 6.3% 5.3–7.5% 5.0–7.8% 4.8–8.1% 4.4–8.8%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.0% 3.3–5.1% 3.1–5.4% 2.9–5.6% 2.6–6.2%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.6% 2.9–4.5% 2.7–4.8% 2.5–5.1% 2.2–5.6%
Venstre 4.4% 2.5% 1.9–3.3% 1.7–3.6% 1.6–3.8% 1.4–4.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 48 44–53 43–54 42–54 41–56
Høyre 45 42 38–46 38–46 37–47 36–50
Fremskrittspartiet 27 22 19–25 18–25 18–26 16–27
Senterpartiet 19 20 17–22 16–23 15–24 14–25
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 16 14–18 13–19 12–20 11–21
Rødt 1 11 9–13 9–14 8–14 7–16
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 1–8 1–9 1–10 1–11
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 2 1–8 1–9 1–9 1–10
Venstre 8 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–7

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.9% 99.8%  
42 2% 98.9%  
43 4% 97%  
44 5% 93%  
45 10% 88%  
46 12% 78%  
47 15% 66%  
48 10% 51% Median
49 6% 41% Last Result
50 11% 35%  
51 10% 24%  
52 4% 14%  
53 4% 10%  
54 3% 6%  
55 1.1% 2%  
56 0.8% 1.3%  
57 0.3% 0.5%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.4% 99.9%  
36 1.2% 99.5%  
37 3% 98%  
38 8% 95%  
39 9% 87%  
40 9% 78%  
41 14% 69%  
42 18% 55% Median
43 15% 38%  
44 6% 23%  
45 6% 17% Last Result
46 6% 11%  
47 3% 5%  
48 1.2% 2%  
49 0.5% 1.2%  
50 0.4% 0.7%  
51 0.2% 0.3%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.7% 99.8%  
17 1.4% 99.2%  
18 5% 98%  
19 8% 93%  
20 6% 85%  
21 17% 78%  
22 25% 61% Median
23 8% 36%  
24 15% 28%  
25 9% 13%  
26 4% 5%  
27 0.8% 1.1% Last Result
28 0.2% 0.3%  
29 0.1% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.5% 99.9%  
15 2% 99.4%  
16 4% 97%  
17 9% 93%  
18 16% 85%  
19 18% 69% Last Result
20 18% 51% Median
21 16% 33%  
22 10% 18%  
23 5% 8%  
24 2% 3%  
25 0.7% 1.0%  
26 0.2% 0.2%  
27 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.5% 99.9% Last Result
12 2% 99.4%  
13 7% 97%  
14 14% 91%  
15 13% 77%  
16 22% 63% Median
17 19% 42%  
18 13% 22%  
19 6% 10%  
20 3% 4%  
21 0.8% 1.2%  
22 0.3% 0.4%  
23 0% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0.2% 100%  
3 0% 99.8%  
4 0% 99.8%  
5 0% 99.8%  
6 0% 99.8%  
7 0.5% 99.8%  
8 3% 99.3%  
9 14% 96%  
10 24% 82%  
11 23% 58% Median
12 19% 35%  
13 10% 15%  
14 4% 5%  
15 1.0% 2%  
16 0.5% 0.6%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 13% 99.9%  
2 8% 87%  
3 33% 79% Median
4 0% 46%  
5 0% 46%  
6 0.1% 46%  
7 11% 46%  
8 26% 35% Last Result
9 6% 9%  
10 2% 3%  
11 0.8% 1.0%  
12 0.1% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 15% 99.9% Last Result
2 42% 85% Median
3 5% 43%  
4 0% 38%  
5 0% 38%  
6 0.1% 38%  
7 12% 38%  
8 19% 25%  
9 4% 7%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 17% 100%  
1 33% 83% Median
2 49% 50%  
3 0% 0.7%  
4 0% 0.6%  
5 0% 0.6%  
6 0% 0.6%  
7 0.3% 0.6%  
8 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 99 100% 94–104 93–105 91–106 89–108
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 95 99.5% 89–100 87–101 86–103 84–104
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 93 98.8% 88–97 87–98 86–100 83–102
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 90 89% 84–95 83–96 81–97 79–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 88 83% 83–92 81–94 80–95 77–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 83 42% 78–88 77–90 76–91 74–93
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 62 79 10% 74–85 73–85 72–87 70–89
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 77 2% 72–82 70–83 70–84 67–87
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre 89 74 0.4% 69–80 68–82 66–83 65–84
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 73 0.1% 68–77 67–78 66–80 63–83
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 70 0% 65–75 64–76 62–78 61–80
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 67 0% 63–72 61–74 61–75 59–77
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 65 0% 61–69 60–71 58–72 57–73
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 64 0% 59–68 58–70 58–71 56–72
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 64 0% 59–68 58–70 57–70 55–72
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 48 0% 44–52 43–55 42–57 41–60
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 26 0% 21–31 21–31 20–32 18–35

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0.1% 100%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.2% 99.8%  
89 0.6% 99.7%  
90 1.1% 99.0%  
91 1.2% 98%  
92 1.3% 97%  
93 3% 95%  
94 5% 93%  
95 11% 88%  
96 7% 76%  
97 8% 69% Median
98 8% 61%  
99 7% 54%  
100 14% 47%  
101 10% 33%  
102 6% 23%  
103 5% 16%  
104 4% 11%  
105 3% 7%  
106 2% 4%  
107 1.5% 2%  
108 0.5% 0.9%  
109 0.3% 0.4%  
110 0.1% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0.1% 100%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0.3% 99.7%  
85 0.5% 99.5% Majority
86 2% 99.0%  
87 3% 97%  
88 1.5% 94%  
89 6% 92%  
90 4% 86%  
91 6% 82%  
92 4% 76%  
93 14% 72%  
94 7% 58%  
95 6% 50% Median
96 8% 45%  
97 8% 37%  
98 10% 29%  
99 8% 19%  
100 4% 11%  
101 3% 7%  
102 0.9% 4%  
103 2% 3%  
104 0.9% 1.3%  
105 0.3% 0.4%  
106 0.1% 0.1%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.4% 99.8%  
84 0.6% 99.3%  
85 1.0% 98.8% Majority
86 2% 98%  
87 5% 96%  
88 3% 91% Last Result
89 5% 89% Median
90 9% 84%  
91 7% 75%  
92 10% 68%  
93 19% 58%  
94 11% 39%  
95 9% 28%  
96 3% 19%  
97 6% 16%  
98 5% 10%  
99 2% 5%  
100 2% 3%  
101 0.8% 1.4%  
102 0.3% 0.6%  
103 0.2% 0.3%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.5% 99.8%  
80 0.4% 99.3%  
81 1.4% 98.9%  
82 2% 97%  
83 1.3% 96%  
84 6% 95%  
85 5% 89% Majority
86 5% 84%  
87 5% 79%  
88 8% 74% Median
89 14% 65%  
90 8% 51%  
91 11% 43%  
92 10% 32%  
93 5% 23%  
94 7% 18%  
95 5% 11%  
96 2% 6%  
97 2% 4%  
98 1.4% 2%  
99 0.6% 0.9%  
100 0.1% 0.3%  
101 0.2% 0.2%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.3% 99.8%  
78 0.6% 99.5%  
79 1.2% 98.8%  
80 1.3% 98% Last Result
81 2% 96%  
82 3% 94%  
83 5% 91%  
84 4% 86%  
85 14% 83% Majority
86 6% 69% Median
87 6% 63%  
88 7% 57%  
89 11% 49%  
90 14% 38%  
91 10% 24%  
92 5% 14%  
93 3% 9%  
94 2% 6%  
95 2% 4%  
96 0.7% 2%  
97 0.7% 0.9%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.2% 99.9%  
74 0.3% 99.7%  
75 0.7% 99.3%  
76 2% 98.7%  
77 6% 97%  
78 3% 91%  
79 4% 88% Last Result
80 6% 84%  
81 6% 78%  
82 10% 72%  
83 13% 62%  
84 7% 49% Median
85 8% 42% Majority
86 4% 34%  
87 8% 30%  
88 12% 22%  
89 4% 10%  
90 1.1% 5%  
91 3% 4%  
92 0.6% 2%  
93 0.9% 1.1%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100% Last Result
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0.2% 99.9%  
69 0.1% 99.8%  
70 0.6% 99.6%  
71 1.5% 99.0%  
72 2% 98%  
73 2% 95%  
74 5% 94%  
75 7% 88%  
76 5% 81%  
77 10% 76% Median
78 11% 67%  
79 8% 56%  
80 14% 47%  
81 8% 33%  
82 5% 25%  
83 5% 20%  
84 5% 16%  
85 5% 10% Majority
86 1.2% 5%  
87 2% 4%  
88 1.4% 2%  
89 0.4% 0.8%  
90 0.2% 0.4%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.3% 99.8%  
68 0.4% 99.5%  
69 0.9% 99.1%  
70 3% 98%  
71 5% 95%  
72 5% 90%  
73 3% 85% Median
74 6% 82%  
75 9% 76%  
76 15% 67%  
77 13% 52% Last Result
78 10% 39%  
79 9% 29%  
80 5% 20%  
81 4% 15%  
82 4% 11%  
83 3% 7%  
84 2% 4%  
85 0.8% 2% Majority
86 0.7% 2%  
87 0.4% 0.8%  
88 0.3% 0.4%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.3% 99.8%  
65 0.9% 99.5%  
66 2% 98.6%  
67 0.9% 97%  
68 4% 96%  
69 4% 92%  
70 8% 88% Median
71 10% 80%  
72 8% 70%  
73 8% 62%  
74 6% 54%  
75 7% 48%  
76 14% 41%  
77 4% 27%  
78 6% 23%  
79 4% 17%  
80 6% 13%  
81 1.4% 7%  
82 3% 6%  
83 2% 3%  
84 0.4% 0.7%  
85 0.2% 0.4% Majority
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.2% 99.9%  
63 0.4% 99.7%  
64 0.5% 99.3%  
65 0.9% 98.7%  
66 1.4% 98%  
67 4% 97%  
68 6% 93%  
69 9% 86%  
70 9% 77%  
71 8% 68% Median
72 7% 60%  
73 9% 53%  
74 11% 44%  
75 10% 33%  
76 10% 22% Last Result
77 4% 13%  
78 4% 9%  
79 2% 5%  
80 1.3% 3%  
81 0.5% 2%  
82 0.9% 2%  
83 0.3% 0.6%  
84 0.2% 0.3%  
85 0.1% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.3% 99.9%  
61 0.6% 99.6%  
62 2% 99.0%  
63 2% 97%  
64 3% 95%  
65 4% 92%  
66 6% 88%  
67 6% 83%  
68 10% 76% Median
69 14% 66%  
70 7% 52%  
71 8% 45%  
72 8% 38%  
73 7% 30%  
74 11% 23%  
75 5% 12%  
76 2% 6%  
77 1.2% 4%  
78 1.0% 3%  
79 0.9% 2%  
80 0.6% 0.9%  
81 0.1% 0.3%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.2% 99.9%  
59 0.4% 99.7%  
60 1.1% 99.2%  
61 3% 98%  
62 4% 95%  
63 5% 91%  
64 4% 86%  
65 11% 82%  
66 10% 70%  
67 13% 61%  
68 9% 48% Last Result, Median
69 7% 39%  
70 5% 32%  
71 10% 27%  
72 7% 16%  
73 4% 10%  
74 2% 6%  
75 3% 4%  
76 0.5% 1.2%  
77 0.5% 0.7%  
78 0.1% 0.3%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.3% 99.8%  
57 1.0% 99.6%  
58 1.1% 98.6%  
59 2% 97%  
60 4% 96%  
61 5% 91%  
62 6% 86%  
63 10% 80%  
64 10% 70%  
65 10% 60% Median
66 19% 49%  
67 8% 30%  
68 9% 22%  
69 4% 13%  
70 4% 9%  
71 2% 6%  
72 2% 3%  
73 0.9% 1.4%  
74 0.3% 0.5%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.6% 99.7%  
57 1.0% 99.1%  
58 3% 98%  
59 6% 95%  
60 7% 89% Last Result
61 9% 82%  
62 8% 73%  
63 7% 66%  
64 14% 59% Median
65 9% 45%  
66 8% 36%  
67 5% 28%  
68 14% 23%  
69 5% 10%  
70 3% 5%  
71 1.0% 3%  
72 1.0% 1.5%  
73 0.2% 0.5%  
74 0.2% 0.3%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.3% 99.8%  
56 1.1% 99.5%  
57 2% 98%  
58 4% 97%  
59 5% 93%  
60 6% 88%  
61 4% 83%  
62 7% 78%  
63 15% 71%  
64 12% 56% Median
65 17% 43%  
66 9% 26%  
67 5% 17%  
68 3% 12%  
69 4% 9%  
70 3% 5%  
71 1.1% 2%  
72 0.6% 1.0% Last Result
73 0.3% 0.4%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 1.2% 99.8%  
42 1.4% 98.6%  
43 6% 97%  
44 4% 91%  
45 9% 88%  
46 11% 78% Median
47 14% 67%  
48 12% 53%  
49 8% 41%  
50 11% 33%  
51 7% 22%  
52 5% 14%  
53 2% 9%  
54 2% 8%  
55 1.4% 6%  
56 2% 4%  
57 0.9% 3%  
58 0.3% 2%  
59 0.7% 1.4%  
60 0.3% 0.6%  
61 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.2% 100%  
18 0.4% 99.8%  
19 0.8% 99.4%  
20 2% 98.6%  
21 8% 97%  
22 8% 89%  
23 7% 81%  
24 13% 74% Median
25 7% 61%  
26 7% 54%  
27 15% 46%  
28 9% 32%  
29 6% 23%  
30 7% 17%  
31 6% 10%  
32 2% 5%  
33 0.7% 2%  
34 1.2% 2%  
35 0.3% 0.5% Last Result
36 0.2% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations