Opinion Poll by Sentio, 12–19 February 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 27.4% 25.6–29.3% 25.1–29.8% 24.7–30.3% 23.9–31.2%
Høyre 25.0% 21.1% 19.5–22.8% 19.1–23.3% 18.7–23.7% 17.9–24.6%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 15.6% 14.2–17.2% 13.8–17.6% 13.5–18.0% 12.8–18.8%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 10.8% 9.6–12.2% 9.3–12.5% 9.0–12.9% 8.5–13.6%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.6% 6.5–9.9% 6.0–10.5%
Rødt 2.4% 5.1% 4.3–6.1% 4.1–6.4% 3.9–6.6% 3.6–7.2%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.9% 3.2–4.8% 3.0–5.1% 2.9–5.3% 2.6–5.8%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.4% 2.8–4.3% 2.6–4.5% 2.4–4.7% 2.2–5.2%
Venstre 4.4% 2.3% 1.8–3.0% 1.6–3.2% 1.5–3.4% 1.3–3.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 50 46–53 45–54 44–55 43–57
Høyre 45 39 35–42 34–43 33–43 33–45
Senterpartiet 19 29 26–32 25–33 24–34 23–35
Fremskrittspartiet 27 19 17–21 16–22 16–23 15–24
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 14 13–16 12–17 12–18 11–19
Rødt 1 9 8–11 8–12 7–12 2–13
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 3 2–8 1–9 1–9 1–10
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 1–7 1–8 1–8 1–9
Venstre 8 1 1–2 0–2 0–2 0–2

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.6% 99.9%  
44 4% 99.3%  
45 5% 96%  
46 6% 91%  
47 9% 84%  
48 14% 76%  
49 7% 62% Last Result
50 23% 55% Median
51 8% 31%  
52 9% 24%  
53 8% 15%  
54 4% 7%  
55 1.1% 3%  
56 1.2% 2%  
57 0.6% 0.8%  
58 0.2% 0.2%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0% 100%  
31 0.1% 99.9%  
32 0.3% 99.8%  
33 3% 99.5%  
34 2% 97%  
35 4% 94%  
36 12% 90%  
37 12% 78%  
38 12% 66%  
39 25% 54% Median
40 7% 28%  
41 5% 21%  
42 8% 16%  
43 7% 8%  
44 0.9% 2%  
45 0.5% 0.7% Last Result
46 0.2% 0.2%  
47 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.3% 99.9%  
23 0.9% 99.7%  
24 2% 98.8%  
25 5% 97%  
26 13% 92%  
27 15% 79%  
28 13% 64%  
29 12% 51% Median
30 11% 39%  
31 8% 28%  
32 12% 20%  
33 4% 8%  
34 2% 4%  
35 1.1% 1.4%  
36 0.3% 0.3%  
37 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.2% 100%  
15 0.9% 99.8%  
16 5% 98.8%  
17 6% 94%  
18 23% 88%  
19 25% 65% Median
20 9% 40%  
21 22% 31%  
22 5% 9%  
23 2% 4%  
24 2% 2%  
25 0.2% 0.2%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.5% 100%  
11 2% 99.5% Last Result
12 7% 98%  
13 23% 91%  
14 21% 68% Median
15 18% 47%  
16 19% 29%  
17 6% 10%  
18 3% 4%  
19 1.2% 1.4%  
20 0.2% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 2% 100%  
3 0% 98%  
4 0% 98%  
5 0% 98%  
6 0% 98%  
7 2% 98%  
8 23% 96%  
9 28% 73% Median
10 25% 45%  
11 14% 20%  
12 5% 6%  
13 0.6% 0.8%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 6% 100% Last Result
2 42% 94%  
3 3% 51% Median
4 4% 48%  
5 0% 44%  
6 0% 44%  
7 11% 44%  
8 27% 34%  
9 6% 7%  
10 0.8% 0.9%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100%  
1 34% 99.6%  
2 7% 66%  
3 42% 59% Median
4 0% 17%  
5 0% 17%  
6 0% 17%  
7 7% 17%  
8 9% 10% Last Result
9 1.1% 1.2%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 9% 100%  
1 43% 91% Median
2 47% 47%  
3 0.1% 0.2%  
4 0% 0.1%  
5 0% 0.1%  
6 0% 0.1%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 107 100% 103–110 101–112 100–112 98–114
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 102 100% 98–108 97–108 96–109 93–111
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 101 100% 96–105 95–106 94–107 93–109
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 98 100% 93–101 92–102 90–103 89–105
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 92 99.5% 88–98 88–98 86–99 84–101
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 91 97% 86–96 86–97 84–98 82–100
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 86 69% 81–90 80–92 79–94 77–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 81 18% 77–86 76–87 74–88 73–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 78 2% 74–82 73–83 72–84 70–86
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 67 0% 61–71 61–72 60–73 58–76
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 64 0% 60–68 59–69 58–70 57–72
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 62 0% 59–66 57–68 57–69 55–71
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 59 0% 55–64 54–64 53–65 51–67
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 57 0% 54–62 53–63 52–64 50–66
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 43 0% 40–47 38–48 38–49 36–51
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 33 0% 29–37 29–39 27–41 26–43

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 99.9%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.3% 99.9%  
98 0.2% 99.5%  
99 2% 99.3%  
100 2% 98%  
101 3% 95%  
102 2% 93%  
103 8% 91%  
104 9% 83%  
105 6% 74% Median
106 9% 68%  
107 19% 59%  
108 8% 40%  
109 7% 31%  
110 16% 25%  
111 4% 9%  
112 3% 5%  
113 1.1% 2%  
114 0.9% 1.3%  
115 0.2% 0.4%  
116 0.1% 0.2%  
117 0.1% 0.1%  
118 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0.2% 100%  
92 0.2% 99.8%  
93 0.3% 99.6%  
94 0.5% 99.3%  
95 1.4% 98.9%  
96 0.9% 98%  
97 4% 97%  
98 6% 92%  
99 15% 86%  
100 8% 71%  
101 11% 63%  
102 12% 52% Median
103 11% 40%  
104 5% 30%  
105 6% 25%  
106 2% 19%  
107 3% 16%  
108 9% 13%  
109 2% 4%  
110 1.3% 2%  
111 0.4% 0.6%  
112 0.1% 0.1%  
113 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0% 100% Last Result
89 0% 100%  
90 0.1% 100%  
91 0.1% 99.9%  
92 0.2% 99.8%  
93 1.3% 99.6%  
94 2% 98%  
95 5% 97%  
96 6% 92%  
97 7% 86%  
98 9% 78%  
99 6% 69% Median
100 10% 64%  
101 15% 54%  
102 15% 39%  
103 7% 23%  
104 6% 17%  
105 4% 11%  
106 3% 7%  
107 2% 4%  
108 1.1% 2%  
109 0.6% 1.0%  
110 0.2% 0.4%  
111 0.1% 0.2%  
112 0% 0.1%  
113 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0.1% 100%  
88 0.1% 99.9%  
89 0.4% 99.8%  
90 2% 99.4%  
91 1.0% 97%  
92 3% 96%  
93 5% 94%  
94 8% 89%  
95 12% 81%  
96 7% 70% Median
97 9% 62%  
98 10% 54%  
99 20% 44%  
100 12% 24%  
101 4% 13%  
102 4% 9%  
103 2% 4%  
104 1.2% 2%  
105 0.6% 0.9%  
106 0.2% 0.4%  
107 0.1% 0.2%  
108 0.1% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100% Last Result
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0.2% 100%  
84 0.2% 99.7%  
85 0.7% 99.5% Majority
86 1.4% 98.8%  
87 2% 97%  
88 6% 95%  
89 5% 89%  
90 7% 84%  
91 18% 76%  
92 11% 59%  
93 10% 48% Median
94 8% 37%  
95 7% 29%  
96 4% 22%  
97 5% 18%  
98 9% 13%  
99 3% 4%  
100 0.5% 2%  
101 1.1% 1.3%  
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0.1% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100%  
80 0.1% 99.9%  
81 0.2% 99.9%  
82 0.2% 99.6%  
83 0.7% 99.4%  
84 1.3% 98.7%  
85 2% 97% Majority
86 6% 95%  
87 4% 89%  
88 8% 85%  
89 8% 77%  
90 12% 69%  
91 20% 57% Median
92 7% 38%  
93 7% 31%  
94 5% 24%  
95 6% 19%  
96 6% 13%  
97 3% 7%  
98 2% 4%  
99 1.1% 2%  
100 0.5% 0.9%  
101 0.2% 0.4%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.5% 99.8% Last Result
78 1.4% 99.3%  
79 1.3% 98%  
80 4% 97%  
81 3% 92%  
82 10% 89%  
83 4% 79%  
84 6% 75%  
85 14% 69% Median, Majority
86 12% 55%  
87 10% 43%  
88 6% 33%  
89 11% 26%  
90 6% 15%  
91 3% 10%  
92 2% 7%  
93 2% 5%  
94 2% 3%  
95 0.5% 1.3%  
96 0.6% 0.8%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 99.9%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.4% 99.8%  
74 2% 99.3%  
75 2% 97%  
76 3% 96% Last Result
77 7% 93%  
78 10% 86%  
79 6% 76%  
80 14% 70%  
81 10% 56%  
82 8% 46% Median
83 11% 38%  
84 9% 27%  
85 7% 18% Majority
86 5% 11%  
87 3% 6%  
88 2% 3%  
89 0.6% 2%  
90 0.4% 1.0%  
91 0.1% 0.5%  
92 0.2% 0.4%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100% Last Result
69 0.2% 99.9%  
70 0.4% 99.7%  
71 0.6% 99.3%  
72 2% 98.7%  
73 5% 97%  
74 4% 92%  
75 9% 88%  
76 10% 79%  
77 8% 69%  
78 12% 61%  
79 17% 49% Median
80 5% 32%  
81 7% 27%  
82 12% 20%  
83 4% 8%  
84 2% 4%  
85 2% 2% Majority
86 0.3% 0.7%  
87 0.3% 0.4%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.4% 99.9%  
59 1.3% 99.4%  
60 2% 98%  
61 9% 96%  
62 4% 87%  
63 2% 84%  
64 6% 81%  
65 5% 75% Median
66 11% 70%  
67 12% 59%  
68 11% 48%  
69 8% 37%  
70 15% 29%  
71 6% 14%  
72 4% 8%  
73 0.9% 3%  
74 1.3% 2%  
75 0.5% 1.1%  
76 0.3% 0.7%  
77 0.2% 0.4%  
78 0.2% 0.2%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.2% 99.9%  
57 0.8% 99.7%  
58 3% 98.9%  
59 4% 96%  
60 3% 92% Last Result
61 13% 89%  
62 9% 76%  
63 12% 67%  
64 11% 55% Median
65 12% 44%  
66 15% 33%  
67 6% 17%  
68 5% 12%  
69 3% 7%  
70 2% 4%  
71 1.1% 2%  
72 0.6% 0.8%  
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.2% 99.8%  
55 0.9% 99.6%  
56 1.1% 98.7%  
57 3% 98%  
58 4% 95%  
59 16% 91%  
60 7% 75%  
61 8% 69%  
62 19% 60% Median
63 9% 41%  
64 6% 32%  
65 9% 26%  
66 8% 17%  
67 2% 9%  
68 3% 7%  
69 2% 4%  
70 2% 2%  
71 0.2% 0.6%  
72 0.3% 0.5%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.2% 99.9%  
51 0.5% 99.8%  
52 1.3% 99.3%  
53 1.4% 98%  
54 3% 97%  
55 4% 93%  
56 7% 90%  
57 9% 82%  
58 17% 74%  
59 18% 57% Median
60 8% 39%  
61 6% 31%  
62 6% 25%  
63 7% 19%  
64 7% 12%  
65 2% 5%  
66 1.4% 2%  
67 0.6% 0.9%  
68 0.2% 0.3%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 1.1% 99.8%  
51 0.7% 98.6%  
52 2% 98%  
53 3% 96%  
54 3% 92%  
55 11% 89%  
56 6% 78%  
57 25% 72%  
58 11% 47% Median
59 7% 36%  
60 7% 29%  
61 7% 22%  
62 8% 15%  
63 4% 7%  
64 2% 3%  
65 0.7% 1.3%  
66 0.3% 0.6%  
67 0.2% 0.3%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.3% 100%  
36 0.3% 99.7%  
37 1.1% 99.4%  
38 4% 98%  
39 3% 94%  
40 9% 91%  
41 20% 82%  
42 7% 62%  
43 14% 56% Median
44 12% 41%  
45 10% 29%  
46 9% 19%  
47 4% 10%  
48 2% 6%  
49 2% 4%  
50 0.5% 1.1%  
51 0.2% 0.6%  
52 0.3% 0.4%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.1% 99.9%  
25 0.1% 99.8%  
26 0.7% 99.7%  
27 2% 99.0%  
28 2% 97%  
29 7% 95%  
30 8% 88%  
31 9% 80%  
32 10% 71%  
33 15% 61% Median
34 18% 46%  
35 8% 28% Last Result
36 6% 20%  
37 4% 13%  
38 3% 9%  
39 2% 6%  
40 2% 4%  
41 1.1% 3%  
42 0.7% 1.5%  
43 0.5% 0.8%  
44 0.1% 0.2%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations