Opinion Poll by Ipsos MMI, 18–20 February 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 26.9% 25.1–28.9% 24.6–29.4% 24.2–29.9% 23.3–30.8%
Høyre 25.0% 25.1% 23.4–27.0% 22.8–27.5% 22.4–28.0% 21.6–28.9%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 13.0% 11.7–14.5% 11.3–14.9% 11.0–15.3% 10.4–16.0%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 10.0% 8.8–11.4% 8.5–11.7% 8.2–12.1% 7.7–12.8%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.7–8.5% 5.5–8.8% 5.1–9.4%
Rødt 2.4% 6.7% 5.7–7.8% 5.4–8.2% 5.2–8.4% 4.8–9.0%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.8% 3.1–4.7% 2.9–5.0% 2.7–5.2% 2.4–5.7%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 2.5% 1.9–3.3% 1.8–3.5% 1.6–3.7% 1.4–4.1%
Venstre 4.4% 2.3% 1.7–3.0% 1.6–3.2% 1.5–3.4% 1.3–3.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 50 46–54 45–55 44–56 43–57
Høyre 45 46 42–49 41–51 41–52 38–53
Senterpartiet 19 23 21–26 21–26 20–28 19–31
Fremskrittspartiet 27 18 16–20 15–21 15–22 14–24
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 13 11–15 10–15 10–16 9–17
Rødt 1 12 10–14 10–15 9–15 9–16
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 2 2–8 1–9 1–9 1–10
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 1 0–2 0–3 0–3 0–3
Venstre 8 2 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.3% 99.9%  
43 0.6% 99.6%  
44 2% 99.0%  
45 4% 97%  
46 5% 94%  
47 6% 89%  
48 11% 82%  
49 11% 71% Last Result
50 19% 60% Median
51 7% 41%  
52 11% 34%  
53 10% 23%  
54 5% 13%  
55 6% 9%  
56 1.4% 3%  
57 1.0% 1.3%  
58 0.2% 0.3%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 0.3% 99.8%  
39 0.8% 99.5%  
40 0.9% 98.7%  
41 4% 98%  
42 8% 94%  
43 12% 86%  
44 15% 74%  
45 8% 59% Last Result
46 18% 51% Median
47 10% 33%  
48 8% 23%  
49 6% 14%  
50 2% 8%  
51 3% 6%  
52 1.5% 3%  
53 1.0% 1.3%  
54 0.2% 0.3%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.3% 100%  
19 0.9% 99.6% Last Result
20 3% 98.8%  
21 9% 95%  
22 20% 87%  
23 22% 66% Median
24 16% 44%  
25 16% 28%  
26 7% 11%  
27 2% 5%  
28 0.8% 3%  
29 0.9% 2%  
30 0.4% 1.1%  
31 0.5% 0.7%  
32 0.1% 0.2%  
33 0% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.3% 99.9%  
14 1.3% 99.6%  
15 5% 98%  
16 12% 93%  
17 19% 81%  
18 15% 63% Median
19 27% 47%  
20 11% 20%  
21 5% 9%  
22 3% 4%  
23 0.6% 1.3%  
24 0.6% 0.7%  
25 0% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 1.0% 99.9%  
10 5% 98.9%  
11 14% 94% Last Result
12 18% 80%  
13 24% 62% Median
14 24% 38%  
15 11% 14%  
16 2% 3%  
17 0.7% 1.0%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.3% 100%  
9 3% 99.7%  
10 9% 97%  
11 19% 88%  
12 30% 69% Median
13 21% 39%  
14 11% 17%  
15 4% 6%  
16 1.5% 2%  
17 0.3% 0.4%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 6% 100% Last Result
2 54% 94% Median
3 5% 40%  
4 0% 35%  
5 0% 35%  
6 0.2% 35%  
7 7% 35%  
8 20% 28%  
9 7% 7%  
10 0.6% 0.8%  
11 0.1% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 23% 100%  
1 58% 77% Median
2 13% 19%  
3 6% 6%  
4 0% 0.4%  
5 0% 0.4%  
6 0% 0.4%  
7 0.2% 0.4%  
8 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 14% 100%  
1 36% 86%  
2 50% 50% Median
3 0.1% 0.3%  
4 0% 0.2%  
5 0% 0.2%  
6 0% 0.2%  
7 0.1% 0.2%  
8 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 103 100% 98–107 96–108 96–109 93–111
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 99 100% 94–103 93–104 91–105 88–107
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 92 98% 87–96 86–97 85–98 82–100
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 91 95% 86–95 84–96 83–98 81–99
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 89 92% 85–94 84–95 83–97 80–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 86 75% 82–91 81–92 79–92 77–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 78 6% 74–84 73–85 72–86 70–89
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 62 79 7% 75–83 73–85 72–86 70–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 74 0.1% 70–79 69–80 68–80 66–82
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 73 0% 69–78 68–79 67–80 65–81
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 70 0% 66–75 65–76 64–77 61–79
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 66 0% 62–70 61–72 59–73 57–75
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 65 0% 61–69 60–70 59–72 56–73
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 63 0% 60–68 59–69 58–70 56–72
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 63 0% 59–67 58–68 57–69 55–71
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 48 0% 44–52 43–53 42–54 40–56
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 26 0% 23–29 22–30 21–31 20–33

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0.1% 99.9%  
92 0.3% 99.9%  
93 0.5% 99.6%  
94 0.5% 99.1%  
95 1.0% 98.6%  
96 3% 98%  
97 2% 95%  
98 4% 93%  
99 6% 89%  
100 5% 82% Median
101 10% 77%  
102 11% 67%  
103 13% 56%  
104 12% 43%  
105 10% 31%  
106 6% 21%  
107 5% 15%  
108 5% 9%  
109 2% 4%  
110 1.5% 2%  
111 0.4% 0.8%  
112 0.2% 0.4%  
113 0.1% 0.1%  
114 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0.1% 100%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.3% 99.8%  
89 0.4% 99.5%  
90 0.7% 99.1%  
91 0.9% 98%  
92 2% 97%  
93 4% 96%  
94 6% 92%  
95 5% 86%  
96 7% 81%  
97 8% 74%  
98 7% 66% Median
99 15% 59%  
100 12% 44%  
101 10% 32%  
102 10% 22%  
103 5% 12%  
104 3% 6%  
105 2% 3%  
106 0.5% 1.2%  
107 0.4% 0.7%  
108 0.2% 0.3%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100%  
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.4% 99.8%  
83 0.7% 99.5%  
84 1.2% 98.7%  
85 2% 98% Majority
86 4% 96%  
87 4% 92%  
88 7% 88% Last Result
89 9% 81% Median
90 9% 73%  
91 9% 64%  
92 12% 55%  
93 13% 43%  
94 9% 29%  
95 8% 21%  
96 5% 13%  
97 4% 8%  
98 2% 4%  
99 1.0% 2%  
100 0.6% 1.0%  
101 0.2% 0.3%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.1% 100%  
80 0.3% 99.9% Last Result
81 0.4% 99.6%  
82 0.9% 99.2%  
83 1.5% 98%  
84 2% 97%  
85 4% 95% Majority
86 3% 91%  
87 7% 88%  
88 9% 80% Median
89 7% 72%  
90 11% 65%  
91 13% 53%  
92 9% 40%  
93 10% 31%  
94 8% 21%  
95 4% 13%  
96 4% 9%  
97 2% 5%  
98 2% 3%  
99 0.6% 1.0%  
100 0.3% 0.4%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.1% 99.8%  
80 0.2% 99.7%  
81 1.0% 99.5%  
82 0.8% 98%  
83 2% 98%  
84 3% 95%  
85 3% 92% Majority
86 11% 90%  
87 10% 79%  
88 11% 69%  
89 9% 58%  
90 9% 49% Median
91 12% 40%  
92 8% 28%  
93 9% 20%  
94 4% 12%  
95 3% 8%  
96 2% 5%  
97 2% 3%  
98 0.9% 1.4%  
99 0.2% 0.5%  
100 0.1% 0.3%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 99.9%  
76 0.2% 99.9%  
77 0.3% 99.7%  
78 0.8% 99.4%  
79 1.3% 98.6% Last Result
80 2% 97%  
81 4% 95%  
82 4% 92%  
83 8% 88%  
84 5% 80%  
85 11% 75% Majority
86 15% 64% Median
87 8% 50%  
88 13% 42%  
89 11% 29%  
90 8% 19%  
91 5% 11%  
92 4% 6%  
93 1.3% 2%  
94 0.3% 0.8%  
95 0.3% 0.5%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.2% 99.9%  
70 0.7% 99.7%  
71 0.7% 99.0%  
72 2% 98%  
73 3% 96%  
74 4% 93%  
75 9% 90%  
76 12% 80% Median
77 8% 68% Last Result
78 10% 60%  
79 8% 50%  
80 9% 42%  
81 8% 33%  
82 9% 25%  
83 5% 16%  
84 4% 10%  
85 3% 6% Majority
86 1.4% 3%  
87 0.6% 2%  
88 0.7% 1.3%  
89 0.4% 0.6%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100% Last Result
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.2% 99.9%  
70 0.4% 99.7%  
71 1.0% 99.3%  
72 2% 98%  
73 2% 97%  
74 3% 94%  
75 4% 91%  
76 9% 87%  
77 8% 79% Median
78 12% 71%  
79 9% 58%  
80 9% 49%  
81 11% 41%  
82 10% 30%  
83 11% 20%  
84 3% 9%  
85 3% 7% Majority
86 2% 4%  
87 0.7% 2%  
88 0.9% 1.2%  
89 0.1% 0.3%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.4% 99.8%  
67 0.8% 99.4%  
68 1.3% 98.6%  
69 3% 97%  
70 6% 94%  
71 5% 88%  
72 7% 83%  
73 15% 76%  
74 12% 61% Median
75 9% 49%  
76 13% 41% Last Result
77 6% 28%  
78 9% 22%  
79 6% 13%  
80 5% 7%  
81 1.1% 2%  
82 0.9% 1.4%  
83 0.1% 0.5%  
84 0.3% 0.4%  
85 0.1% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.2% 99.9%  
65 0.4% 99.7%  
66 1.0% 99.3%  
67 1.3% 98%  
68 3% 97% Last Result
69 7% 94%  
70 6% 87%  
71 6% 81%  
72 15% 76%  
73 12% 61% Median
74 7% 49%  
75 10% 42%  
76 11% 31%  
77 10% 21%  
78 3% 10%  
79 4% 7%  
80 2% 3%  
81 0.7% 1.2%  
82 0.2% 0.5%  
83 0.3% 0.3%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.3% 99.7%  
62 0.4% 99.4%  
63 0.5% 99.0%  
64 2% 98%  
65 4% 97%  
66 5% 93%  
67 10% 88%  
68 10% 77%  
69 13% 68% Median
70 15% 55%  
71 7% 40%  
72 8% 33%  
73 7% 25%  
74 5% 17%  
75 6% 12%  
76 4% 7%  
77 2% 3%  
78 0.7% 2%  
79 0.4% 0.8%  
80 0.3% 0.4%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.3% 99.7%  
58 0.5% 99.4%  
59 2% 98.9%  
60 2% 97%  
61 5% 95%  
62 6% 90%  
63 6% 85%  
64 10% 78%  
65 12% 68%  
66 13% 56%  
67 11% 44% Median
68 10% 32%  
69 5% 22%  
70 6% 16%  
71 4% 10%  
72 2% 6%  
73 3% 4%  
74 0.8% 1.4%  
75 0.3% 0.7%  
76 0.2% 0.3%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.3% 99.8%  
57 0.6% 99.4%  
58 1.1% 98.9%  
59 2% 98%  
60 3% 95%  
61 6% 92%  
62 8% 85%  
63 9% 78%  
64 10% 68%  
65 18% 58%  
66 8% 40% Median
67 11% 32%  
68 5% 21%  
69 8% 16%  
70 3% 8%  
71 2% 5%  
72 2% 3%  
73 0.4% 0.8%  
74 0.2% 0.5%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.2% 99.7%  
56 0.9% 99.5%  
57 0.8% 98.6%  
58 2% 98%  
59 5% 96%  
60 7% 90%  
61 11% 84%  
62 8% 73%  
63 16% 66%  
64 12% 50% Median
65 13% 38%  
66 6% 25%  
67 7% 19%  
68 5% 12%  
69 3% 7%  
70 2% 4%  
71 1.3% 2%  
72 0.3% 0.7% Last Result
73 0.3% 0.4%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.2% 99.9%  
55 0.7% 99.6%  
56 0.8% 99.0%  
57 2% 98%  
58 4% 96%  
59 5% 92%  
60 8% 87% Last Result
61 10% 79%  
62 11% 69%  
63 11% 58% Median
64 17% 47%  
65 6% 30%  
66 7% 23%  
67 9% 16%  
68 5% 8%  
69 1.4% 3%  
70 0.7% 1.3%  
71 0.4% 0.5%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 0.2% 99.7%  
41 0.6% 99.5%  
42 2% 98.9%  
43 3% 97%  
44 10% 94%  
45 7% 84%  
46 13% 77%  
47 10% 64%  
48 11% 54%  
49 16% 43% Median
50 9% 27%  
51 7% 19%  
52 5% 12%  
53 3% 7%  
54 2% 4%  
55 1.0% 2%  
56 0.9% 1.3%  
57 0.3% 0.4%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.6% 99.8%  
21 2% 99.2%  
22 5% 97%  
23 9% 92%  
24 10% 84%  
25 23% 74%  
26 12% 50% Median
27 18% 39%  
28 8% 20%  
29 4% 12%  
30 6% 8%  
31 1.2% 3%  
32 0.4% 1.5%  
33 0.6% 1.1%  
34 0.2% 0.5%  
35 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations