Opinion Poll by Respons Analyse, 28 February–4 March 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 24.3% 22.6–26.1% 22.1–26.6% 21.7–27.1% 21.0–27.9%
Høyre 25.0% 24.3% 22.6–26.1% 22.1–26.6% 21.7–27.1% 21.0–27.9%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 14.6% 13.2–16.1% 12.9–16.6% 12.5–16.9% 11.9–17.7%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 12.6% 11.3–14.0% 11.0–14.4% 10.7–14.8% 10.1–15.5%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.6% 6.6–8.8% 6.3–9.1% 6.1–9.4% 5.7–10.0%
Rødt 2.4% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.1%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.8% 3.1–4.7% 2.9–5.0% 2.8–5.2% 2.5–5.6%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.3% 2.7–4.1% 2.5–4.4% 2.4–4.6% 2.1–5.0%
Venstre 4.4% 2.8% 2.2–3.6% 2.1–3.8% 1.9–4.0% 1.7–4.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 44 41–47 40–49 39–49 38–51
Høyre 45 44 41–47 40–49 39–49 37–51
Senterpartiet 19 26 24–30 23–31 23–31 21–32
Fremskrittspartiet 27 23 20–26 19–26 19–27 18–28
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 14 12–16 11–17 11–17 10–18
Rødt 1 9 8–11 2–11 2–12 2–13
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 2–9 1–9 1–9 1–10
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 2 1–7 1–8 1–8 1–9
Venstre 8 2 1–2 1–2 1–7 0–8

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 0.8% 99.7%  
39 2% 98.9%  
40 5% 97%  
41 8% 92%  
42 13% 84%  
43 14% 70%  
44 17% 56% Median
45 15% 39%  
46 12% 24%  
47 4% 12%  
48 3% 8%  
49 3% 5% Last Result
50 1.0% 2%  
51 0.5% 1.0%  
52 0.4% 0.5%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.2% 100%  
37 0.5% 99.8%  
38 1.5% 99.3%  
39 3% 98%  
40 5% 95%  
41 11% 90%  
42 10% 79%  
43 14% 69%  
44 14% 55% Median
45 13% 42% Last Result
46 12% 29%  
47 8% 17%  
48 3% 9%  
49 4% 6%  
50 2% 2%  
51 0.2% 0.6%  
52 0.3% 0.3%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0.2% 99.9%  
21 0.4% 99.8%  
22 2% 99.4%  
23 6% 98%  
24 12% 92%  
25 16% 80%  
26 15% 64% Median
27 16% 49%  
28 6% 33%  
29 8% 27%  
30 13% 19%  
31 5% 6%  
32 0.7% 1.1%  
33 0.3% 0.4%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.3% 100%  
18 1.2% 99.6%  
19 4% 98%  
20 6% 94%  
21 10% 89%  
22 20% 79%  
23 18% 58% Median
24 18% 40%  
25 9% 22%  
26 9% 13%  
27 3% 4% Last Result
28 0.9% 1.3%  
29 0.3% 0.4%  
30 0% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 2% 99.9%  
11 5% 98% Last Result
12 5% 92%  
13 32% 87%  
14 27% 55% Median
15 9% 28%  
16 13% 18%  
17 4% 5%  
18 1.0% 1.4%  
19 0.4% 0.4%  
20 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 6% 100%  
3 0% 94%  
4 0% 94%  
5 0% 94%  
6 0% 94%  
7 3% 94%  
8 24% 91%  
9 29% 67% Median
10 24% 37%  
11 9% 13%  
12 3% 4%  
13 0.9% 1.0%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 10% 99.9%  
2 10% 90%  
3 44% 80% Median
4 0% 36%  
5 0% 36%  
6 0% 36%  
7 12% 36%  
8 13% 24% Last Result
9 8% 11%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 38% 99.9% Last Result
2 48% 62% Median
3 3% 14%  
4 0.7% 11%  
5 0% 11%  
6 0% 11%  
7 4% 11%  
8 6% 7%  
9 0.6% 0.7%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.2% 100%  
1 12% 98.8%  
2 82% 86% Median
3 0.9% 4%  
4 0% 3%  
5 0% 3%  
6 0% 3%  
7 2% 3%  
8 1.2% 1.4% Last Result
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 100 100% 96–103 95–105 94–107 91–108
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 96 100% 92–100 90–101 89–102 86–104
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 93 99.4% 89–97 87–99 86–100 84–103
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 91 98% 87–96 86–97 85–99 83–100
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 87 71% 82–91 81–93 80–94 78–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 84 49% 80–89 79–90 78–91 76–93
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 77 4% 73–82 71–84 71–86 69–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 75 0.9% 71–80 69–81 69–83 67–85
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre 89 76 0.6% 72–80 70–82 69–83 66–85
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 73 0% 69–77 68–79 67–80 65–83
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 71 0% 66–75 65–76 65–77 63–79
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 69 0% 65–73 63–74 62–75 60–78
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 67 0% 63–71 61–72 60–73 59–76
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 58 0% 54–62 53–63 52–64 51–66
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 51 0% 46–55 45–56 44–57 43–60
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 33 0% 29–37 28–39 27–40 26–42

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0.1% 100%  
90 0.2% 99.9%  
91 0.4% 99.7%  
92 0.7% 99.3%  
93 0.9% 98.6%  
94 3% 98%  
95 3% 95%  
96 3% 92%  
97 6% 89%  
98 8% 83% Median
99 12% 75%  
100 15% 63%  
101 16% 48%  
102 13% 32%  
103 11% 19%  
104 2% 9%  
105 2% 6%  
106 1.3% 4%  
107 2% 3% Last Result
108 1.0% 1.4%  
109 0.2% 0.4%  
110 0.1% 0.2%  
111 0% 0.1%  
112 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0.1% 100% Majority
86 0.4% 99.9%  
87 0.4% 99.4%  
88 1.2% 99.0%  
89 2% 98%  
90 2% 96%  
91 4% 94%  
92 7% 90%  
93 12% 83%  
94 10% 71%  
95 11% 61% Median
96 13% 50%  
97 10% 37%  
98 6% 28%  
99 10% 21%  
100 3% 11%  
101 4% 8%  
102 2% 4%  
103 1.1% 2%  
104 0.8% 1.3%  
105 0.2% 0.5%  
106 0.2% 0.2%  
107 0.1% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.1% 100% Last Result
81 0% 99.9%  
82 0% 99.9%  
83 0.2% 99.8%  
84 0.3% 99.7%  
85 2% 99.4% Majority
86 2% 98%  
87 2% 96%  
88 2% 94%  
89 6% 92%  
90 5% 86%  
91 13% 81%  
92 7% 68%  
93 13% 61% Median
94 11% 48%  
95 12% 37%  
96 4% 25%  
97 11% 21%  
98 2% 9%  
99 4% 7%  
100 0.9% 3%  
101 1.4% 2%  
102 0.3% 0.8%  
103 0.5% 0.5%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.5% 99.8%  
84 1.0% 99.3%  
85 3% 98% Majority
86 3% 96%  
87 7% 93%  
88 11% 86% Last Result
89 7% 75% Median
90 12% 68%  
91 11% 56%  
92 10% 45%  
93 9% 34%  
94 8% 25%  
95 7% 18%  
96 4% 11%  
97 2% 6%  
98 1.0% 5%  
99 2% 4%  
100 1.0% 1.5%  
101 0.2% 0.4%  
102 0.1% 0.3%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100%  
77 0.2% 99.9%  
78 0.3% 99.7%  
79 0.8% 99.5%  
80 2% 98.7% Last Result
81 4% 97%  
82 6% 93%  
83 7% 87%  
84 9% 80%  
85 10% 71% Majority
86 11% 61% Median
87 11% 50%  
88 8% 40%  
89 7% 31%  
90 5% 24%  
91 10% 19%  
92 3% 9%  
93 2% 5%  
94 2% 3%  
95 0.8% 2%  
96 0.6% 0.8%  
97 0.1% 0.3%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 99.9%  
75 0.3% 99.9%  
76 1.3% 99.6%  
77 0.7% 98%  
78 2% 98%  
79 3% 95% Last Result
80 5% 92%  
81 10% 88%  
82 8% 78%  
83 10% 70%  
84 11% 60% Median
85 12% 49% Majority
86 12% 37%  
87 4% 26%  
88 4% 21%  
89 10% 18%  
90 4% 8%  
91 1.3% 3%  
92 0.8% 2%  
93 0.8% 1.2%  
94 0.3% 0.4%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.4% 99.8%  
70 1.3% 99.4%  
71 3% 98%  
72 2% 95%  
73 9% 93%  
74 8% 84%  
75 6% 76% Median
76 11% 70%  
77 14% 59% Last Result
78 10% 45%  
79 7% 35%  
80 11% 28%  
81 3% 18%  
82 6% 14%  
83 4% 9%  
84 0.8% 5%  
85 1.2% 4% Majority
86 2% 3%  
87 0.8% 1.4%  
88 0.2% 0.5%  
89 0.2% 0.3%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.3% 99.8%  
67 0.6% 99.6%  
68 1.1% 99.0%  
69 3% 98%  
70 3% 95%  
71 5% 92%  
72 13% 87%  
73 9% 74% Median
74 7% 65%  
75 14% 58%  
76 13% 44% Last Result
77 6% 31%  
78 10% 25%  
79 4% 15%  
80 5% 11%  
81 2% 6%  
82 1.4% 4%  
83 0.5% 3%  
84 1.3% 2%  
85 0.7% 0.9% Majority
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.5% 99.9%  
67 0.3% 99.5%  
68 1.4% 99.2%  
69 0.9% 98%  
70 4% 97%  
71 2% 93%  
72 11% 91%  
73 4% 79%  
74 12% 75% Median
75 11% 63%  
76 13% 52%  
77 7% 39%  
78 13% 32%  
79 5% 19%  
80 6% 14%  
81 2% 8%  
82 2% 6%  
83 2% 4%  
84 2% 2%  
85 0.3% 0.6% Majority
86 0.2% 0.3%  
87 0% 0.2%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
90 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.2% 99.9%  
64 0.2% 99.8%  
65 0.8% 99.5%  
66 1.1% 98.7%  
67 2% 98%  
68 4% 96%  
69 3% 92%  
70 10% 89%  
71 6% 79%  
72 10% 72% Median
73 13% 63%  
74 11% 50%  
75 10% 39%  
76 12% 29%  
77 7% 17%  
78 4% 10%  
79 2% 6%  
80 2% 4%  
81 1.2% 2%  
82 0.4% 1.0%  
83 0.4% 0.6%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.2% 99.9%  
63 0.4% 99.7%  
64 2% 99.3%  
65 4% 98%  
66 5% 93%  
67 3% 88%  
68 14% 85% Last Result
69 14% 71%  
70 7% 57% Median
71 10% 50%  
72 12% 40%  
73 9% 28%  
74 3% 19%  
75 6% 16%  
76 7% 10%  
77 1.3% 3%  
78 1.0% 2%  
79 0.6% 0.7%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.3% 99.8%  
61 0.5% 99.5%  
62 3% 99.0%  
63 2% 96%  
64 2% 95%  
65 8% 92%  
66 5% 84%  
67 10% 79%  
68 13% 69%  
69 12% 56% Median
70 10% 44%  
71 10% 34%  
72 10% 23%  
73 7% 13%  
74 3% 6%  
75 2% 3%  
76 0.4% 1.5%  
77 0.5% 1.0%  
78 0.4% 0.6%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.2% 99.8%  
59 0.6% 99.6%  
60 3% 99.0%  
61 2% 96%  
62 2% 94%  
63 7% 92%  
64 6% 85%  
65 10% 79%  
66 13% 69%  
67 12% 55% Median
68 11% 43%  
69 10% 32%  
70 10% 23%  
71 8% 13%  
72 2% 5% Last Result
73 1.4% 3%  
74 0.4% 1.4%  
75 0.5% 1.0%  
76 0.1% 0.5%  
77 0.4% 0.4%  
78 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.2% 99.9%  
51 0.5% 99.7%  
52 2% 99.2%  
53 2% 97%  
54 6% 94%  
55 9% 88%  
56 14% 79%  
57 13% 66%  
58 16% 53% Median
59 15% 37%  
60 5% 22% Last Result
61 5% 16%  
62 4% 11%  
63 5% 8%  
64 2% 3%  
65 0.5% 1.3%  
66 0.6% 0.8%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.2% 99.8%  
43 0.7% 99.7%  
44 2% 98.9%  
45 3% 97%  
46 6% 94%  
47 10% 88%  
48 6% 77%  
49 10% 71% Median
50 8% 62%  
51 17% 53%  
52 12% 36%  
53 5% 24%  
54 8% 20%  
55 6% 12%  
56 3% 6%  
57 1.3% 3%  
58 0.8% 2%  
59 0.6% 1.2%  
60 0.4% 0.6%  
61 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.5% 99.8%  
27 2% 99.3%  
28 4% 97%  
29 3% 93%  
30 9% 89%  
31 9% 81% Median
32 14% 71%  
33 12% 57%  
34 7% 45%  
35 17% 38% Last Result
36 9% 21%  
37 4% 13%  
38 2% 8%  
39 2% 6%  
40 2% 4%  
41 1.2% 2%  
42 0.3% 0.6%  
43 0.2% 0.3%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations