Opinion Poll by Norfakta, 5–6 March 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 27.0% 25.0–29.2% 24.4–29.8% 23.9–30.3% 23.0–31.4%
Høyre 25.0% 24.6% 22.6–26.7% 22.1–27.3% 21.6–27.8% 20.7–28.8%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 14.0% 12.5–15.8% 12.1–16.3% 11.7–16.7% 11.0–17.6%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 10.7% 9.3–12.3% 8.9–12.7% 8.6–13.1% 8.0–13.9%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 8.1% 6.9–9.5% 6.6–9.9% 6.3–10.3% 5.8–11.0%
Rødt 2.4% 4.5% 3.6–5.6% 3.4–5.9% 3.2–6.2% 2.8–6.8%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.6% 2.9–4.7% 2.7–5.0% 2.5–5.3% 2.2–5.8%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.2% 2.5–4.2% 2.3–4.5% 2.2–4.8% 1.9–5.3%
Venstre 4.4% 2.3% 1.7–3.2% 1.6–3.4% 1.4–3.7% 1.2–4.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 49 45–54 44–55 43–57 41–57
Høyre 45 44 41–49 40–50 38–51 37–53
Senterpartiet 19 26 22–29 22–29 21–31 20–34
Fremskrittspartiet 27 19 17–23 16–23 15–24 14–25
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 15 12–17 12–18 11–19 10–20
Rødt 1 8 2–10 2–10 2–11 2–12
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 2 1–8 1–9 1–9 1–10
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 2 1–7 1–8 0–8 0–9
Venstre 8 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–7

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.6% 99.9%  
42 1.0% 99.3%  
43 2% 98%  
44 4% 96%  
45 4% 92%  
46 5% 88%  
47 14% 83%  
48 9% 69%  
49 20% 60% Last Result, Median
50 6% 40%  
51 7% 34%  
52 9% 28%  
53 5% 18%  
54 4% 13%  
55 5% 9%  
56 2% 5%  
57 2% 3%  
58 0.2% 0.5%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.4% 99.9%  
37 0.7% 99.5%  
38 2% 98.9%  
39 2% 97%  
40 3% 95%  
41 5% 92%  
42 10% 87%  
43 12% 77%  
44 17% 65% Median
45 19% 48% Last Result
46 10% 29%  
47 4% 19%  
48 4% 15%  
49 3% 10%  
50 3% 7%  
51 2% 4%  
52 0.7% 1.5%  
53 0.6% 0.8%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.3% 99.9% Last Result
20 2% 99.7%  
21 2% 98%  
22 7% 96%  
23 8% 89%  
24 7% 81%  
25 12% 74%  
26 18% 62% Median
27 12% 44%  
28 16% 32%  
29 11% 16%  
30 1.5% 5%  
31 1.3% 3%  
32 0.7% 2%  
33 0.4% 1.0%  
34 0.5% 0.6%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.2% 100%  
14 0.6% 99.8%  
15 2% 99.2%  
16 6% 97%  
17 8% 91%  
18 13% 83%  
19 24% 70% Median
20 18% 46%  
21 9% 28%  
22 7% 18%  
23 7% 11%  
24 3% 4%  
25 1.0% 1.4%  
26 0.3% 0.4%  
27 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
28 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.5% 99.9%  
11 3% 99.4% Last Result
12 7% 97%  
13 16% 89%  
14 18% 74%  
15 22% 56% Median
16 17% 34%  
17 7% 16%  
18 6% 9%  
19 2% 3%  
20 0.6% 1.0%  
21 0.3% 0.4%  
22 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.3% 100% Last Result
2 28% 99.7%  
3 0% 72%  
4 0% 72%  
5 0% 72%  
6 0% 72%  
7 8% 72%  
8 23% 63% Median
9 25% 41%  
10 12% 15%  
11 3% 4%  
12 0.8% 1.1%  
13 0.3% 0.3%  
14 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 21% 100% Last Result
2 38% 79% Median
3 3% 40%  
4 0.5% 37%  
5 0% 37%  
6 0% 37%  
7 12% 37%  
8 19% 25%  
9 4% 6%  
10 1.1% 2%  
11 0.4% 0.4%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 41% 96%  
2 11% 56% Median
3 30% 45%  
4 0% 15%  
5 0% 15%  
6 0% 15%  
7 6% 15%  
8 7% 9% Last Result
9 2% 2%  
10 0.4% 0.4%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 15% 100%  
1 37% 85% Median
2 47% 48%  
3 0.4% 0.9%  
4 0% 0.5%  
5 0% 0.5%  
6 0% 0.5%  
7 0.3% 0.5%  
8 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 101 100% 96–106 94–108 92–108 90–111
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 97 99.8% 91–102 90–104 89–105 86–107
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 97 100% 92–102 90–103 89–104 87–109
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 94 98% 89–99 86–101 85–103 83–105
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 94 98% 89–99 88–101 85–102 83–105
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 90 90% 84–96 83–97 82–98 79–100
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 83 25% 77–87 76–89 74–90 72–95
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 78 5% 73–82 71–84 70–86 68–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 75 0.3% 70–80 69–81 67–82 65–84
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 72 0.2% 67–78 65–79 64–80 62–83
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 68 0% 63–73 61–75 61–77 58–79
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 65 0% 61–70 59–71 58–72 56–75
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 64 0% 59–69 58–71 57–72 55–73
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 64 0% 59–69 58–70 57–71 55–74
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 48 0% 45–54 43–55 42–56 40–59
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 30 0% 26–35 25–36 24–37 23–40

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0.1% 100%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.3% 99.7%  
91 0.9% 99.5%  
92 1.1% 98.5%  
93 2% 97%  
94 2% 96%  
95 2% 93%  
96 3% 91%  
97 6% 88%  
98 9% 83%  
99 8% 73%  
100 7% 66% Median
101 9% 59%  
102 17% 49%  
103 5% 33%  
104 10% 28%  
105 8% 18%  
106 4% 11%  
107 2% 7%  
108 3% 5%  
109 0.7% 2%  
110 0.5% 1.2%  
111 0.2% 0.7%  
112 0.4% 0.5%  
113 0% 0.1%  
114 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 0.1% 99.8% Majority
86 0.2% 99.7%  
87 0.7% 99.4%  
88 1.0% 98.8%  
89 2% 98%  
90 4% 96%  
91 3% 92%  
92 4% 89%  
93 4% 85%  
94 8% 81%  
95 7% 73%  
96 10% 66%  
97 11% 57%  
98 9% 46% Median
99 6% 37%  
100 11% 31%  
101 8% 20%  
102 4% 12%  
103 3% 8%  
104 3% 5%  
105 0.7% 3%  
106 2% 2%  
107 0.3% 0.5%  
108 0.2% 0.2%  
109 0.1% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0.1% 100% Majority
86 0.3% 99.9%  
87 0.8% 99.6%  
88 0.8% 98.7% Last Result
89 1.4% 98%  
90 2% 97%  
91 3% 95%  
92 4% 91%  
93 6% 87%  
94 13% 81% Median
95 6% 68%  
96 9% 62%  
97 9% 53%  
98 7% 44%  
99 13% 37%  
100 7% 24%  
101 3% 17%  
102 7% 14%  
103 3% 8%  
104 3% 5%  
105 0.7% 2%  
106 0.4% 2%  
107 0.3% 1.2%  
108 0.4% 0.9%  
109 0.5% 0.5%  
110 0% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0.1% 100%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.4% 99.7%  
84 1.0% 99.3%  
85 2% 98% Majority
86 2% 96%  
87 1.3% 95%  
88 2% 93%  
89 5% 91%  
90 6% 86%  
91 7% 80%  
92 10% 73% Median
93 7% 63%  
94 8% 56%  
95 9% 48%  
96 9% 39%  
97 14% 31%  
98 5% 17%  
99 4% 12%  
100 2% 8%  
101 2% 6%  
102 1.1% 4%  
103 2% 3%  
104 0.5% 1.4%  
105 0.4% 0.8%  
106 0.3% 0.4%  
107 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.4% 99.9%  
84 1.2% 99.4%  
85 1.0% 98% Majority
86 1.2% 97%  
87 1.0% 96%  
88 3% 95%  
89 4% 92%  
90 6% 88%  
91 8% 82%  
92 8% 74% Median
93 13% 67%  
94 7% 53%  
95 7% 47%  
96 13% 40%  
97 5% 27%  
98 6% 22%  
99 7% 16%  
100 3% 9%  
101 3% 6%  
102 2% 3%  
103 0.8% 1.5%  
104 0.2% 0.7%  
105 0.3% 0.5%  
106 0.1% 0.2%  
107 0.1% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.1% 99.8%  
79 0.2% 99.7% Last Result
80 0.3% 99.5%  
81 1.3% 99.1%  
82 2% 98%  
83 1.4% 96%  
84 5% 94%  
85 2% 90% Majority
86 4% 88%  
87 5% 83%  
88 11% 78%  
89 10% 67%  
90 9% 58% Median
91 11% 48%  
92 11% 38%  
93 7% 26%  
94 7% 19%  
95 2% 12%  
96 3% 10%  
97 4% 7%  
98 1.3% 3%  
99 1.4% 2%  
100 0.3% 0.6%  
101 0.2% 0.3%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.2% 99.9%  
72 0.6% 99.7%  
73 0.9% 99.1%  
74 1.1% 98%  
75 2% 97%  
76 3% 95%  
77 2% 92% Last Result
78 7% 89%  
79 13% 82% Median
80 8% 69%  
81 5% 62%  
82 7% 57%  
83 15% 50%  
84 10% 35%  
85 5% 25% Majority
86 8% 20%  
87 3% 12%  
88 2% 9%  
89 3% 6%  
90 0.8% 3%  
91 0.8% 2%  
92 0.5% 1.5%  
93 0.2% 1.0%  
94 0.1% 0.8%  
95 0.6% 0.7%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.2% 99.9%  
68 0.9% 99.7%  
69 0.5% 98.8%  
70 1.2% 98%  
71 4% 97%  
72 2% 93%  
73 3% 91%  
74 3% 88%  
75 7% 85%  
76 12% 79% Last Result
77 6% 66% Median
78 17% 60%  
79 8% 42%  
80 6% 34%  
81 8% 28%  
82 11% 20%  
83 3% 9%  
84 1.4% 6%  
85 1.5% 5% Majority
86 0.8% 3%  
87 1.1% 2%  
88 0.8% 1.3%  
89 0.3% 0.5%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.2% 99.9%  
65 0.5% 99.7%  
66 0.7% 99.2%  
67 2% 98.5%  
68 1.2% 97% Last Result
69 4% 95%  
70 3% 91%  
71 2% 88%  
72 5% 86%  
73 8% 81%  
74 9% 73%  
75 16% 64% Median
76 11% 49%  
77 10% 38%  
78 8% 28%  
79 6% 20%  
80 5% 15%  
81 5% 9%  
82 2% 4%  
83 1.0% 2%  
84 0.3% 0.6%  
85 0.2% 0.3% Majority
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.2% 99.9%  
62 0.3% 99.7%  
63 2% 99.5%  
64 0.7% 98%  
65 3% 97%  
66 3% 95%  
67 4% 92%  
68 8% 88% Median
69 11% 80%  
70 6% 69%  
71 9% 63%  
72 11% 54%  
73 10% 43%  
74 7% 34%  
75 8% 27%  
76 4% 19%  
77 4% 15%  
78 3% 11%  
79 4% 8%  
80 2% 4%  
81 1.0% 2%  
82 0.7% 1.2%  
83 0.2% 0.6%  
84 0.1% 0.3%  
85 0.1% 0.2% Majority
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100%  
57 0.4% 99.9%  
58 0.2% 99.5%  
59 0.6% 99.3%  
60 0.7% 98.8%  
61 3% 98%  
62 2% 95%  
63 4% 93%  
64 8% 89%  
65 10% 82%  
66 5% 72% Median
67 17% 67%  
68 9% 50%  
69 7% 41%  
70 8% 34%  
71 9% 27%  
72 6% 17%  
73 3% 12%  
74 2% 9%  
75 2% 7%  
76 2% 4%  
77 1.1% 3%  
78 0.9% 1.4%  
79 0.3% 0.5%  
80 0.1% 0.3%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.8%  
56 0.7% 99.7%  
57 0.8% 99.0%  
58 2% 98%  
59 2% 96%  
60 4% 95%  
61 4% 91%  
62 5% 86%  
63 11% 82%  
64 12% 70% Median
65 10% 59%  
66 13% 48%  
67 10% 36%  
68 10% 26%  
69 4% 16%  
70 4% 12%  
71 4% 8%  
72 2% 4%  
73 1.0% 2%  
74 0.5% 1.4%  
75 0.4% 0.9%  
76 0.3% 0.5%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.4% 99.8%  
56 1.1% 99.4%  
57 1.3% 98%  
58 2% 97%  
59 6% 95%  
60 5% 89% Last Result
61 4% 84%  
62 15% 80%  
63 12% 65%  
64 14% 53% Median
65 5% 40%  
66 9% 34%  
67 5% 26%  
68 5% 21%  
69 6% 16%  
70 4% 9%  
71 2% 5%  
72 2% 3%  
73 1.1% 2%  
74 0.2% 0.4%  
75 0.2% 0.2%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.2% 99.8%  
55 0.8% 99.6%  
56 1.1% 98.8%  
57 2% 98%  
58 2% 96%  
59 5% 94%  
60 4% 89%  
61 11% 85%  
62 6% 74%  
63 8% 68% Median
64 18% 60%  
65 12% 42%  
66 7% 30%  
67 9% 23%  
68 4% 14%  
69 4% 10%  
70 3% 6%  
71 1.5% 3%  
72 0.6% 2% Last Result
73 0.6% 1.2%  
74 0.2% 0.6%  
75 0.3% 0.4%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.3% 99.9%  
40 0.5% 99.5%  
41 0.7% 99.0%  
42 2% 98%  
43 2% 96%  
44 4% 94%  
45 13% 90%  
46 5% 78%  
47 14% 72% Median
48 13% 58%  
49 11% 45%  
50 7% 34%  
51 8% 27%  
52 4% 19%  
53 5% 15%  
54 3% 10%  
55 3% 7%  
56 2% 4%  
57 0.5% 2%  
58 0.6% 2%  
59 0.6% 1.0%  
60 0.1% 0.4%  
61 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.2% 100%  
22 0.2% 99.8%  
23 0.8% 99.6%  
24 3% 98.8%  
25 3% 96%  
26 9% 93%  
27 9% 84%  
28 8% 75%  
29 11% 67% Median
30 9% 56%  
31 14% 46%  
32 10% 32%  
33 9% 22%  
34 3% 13%  
35 3% 10% Last Result
36 2% 7%  
37 3% 4%  
38 0.6% 2%  
39 0.4% 1.0%  
40 0.1% 0.5%  
41 0.2% 0.4%  
42 0.1% 0.2%  
43 0% 0.1%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations