Opinion Poll by Ipsos MMI, 18–20 March 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 28.8% 26.9–30.7% 26.4–31.3% 26.0–31.7% 25.1–32.7%
Høyre 25.0% 21.3% 19.7–23.1% 19.2–23.6% 18.8–24.1% 18.1–25.0%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 14.4% 13.0–16.0% 12.7–16.4% 12.3–16.8% 11.7–17.6%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 11.7% 10.4–13.1% 10.1–13.5% 9.8–13.9% 9.2–14.6%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.0% 6.0–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.5–8.8% 5.1–9.4%
Rødt 2.4% 5.6% 4.8–6.7% 4.5–7.0% 4.3–7.3% 3.9–7.8%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.6% 2.9–4.5% 2.7–4.8% 2.6–5.0% 2.3–5.5%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 2.5% 2.0–3.3% 1.8–3.6% 1.7–3.8% 1.5–4.2%
Venstre 4.4% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–3.0% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 53 49–57 48–58 47–58 45–60
Høyre 45 39 36–43 35–43 34–44 33–46
Senterpartiet 19 27 23–29 23–30 22–31 21–34
Fremskrittspartiet 27 21 19–24 18–25 18–26 16–27
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 13 11–15 10–16 10–16 9–17
Rødt 1 10 9–12 8–13 8–13 2–14
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 2 1–8 1–8 1–9 1–10
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 1 0–2 0–3 0–3 0–7
Venstre 8 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.4% 99.8%  
46 0.8% 99.5%  
47 3% 98.7%  
48 3% 96%  
49 5% 93% Last Result
50 8% 89%  
51 10% 81%  
52 12% 71%  
53 14% 59% Median
54 12% 44%  
55 13% 32%  
56 7% 19%  
57 5% 12%  
58 5% 7%  
59 1.3% 2%  
60 0.8% 1.1%  
61 0.2% 0.3%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.2% 99.9%  
33 1.1% 99.6%  
34 2% 98.6%  
35 6% 97%  
36 9% 91%  
37 14% 82%  
38 13% 68%  
39 15% 55% Median
40 13% 40%  
41 8% 26%  
42 6% 18%  
43 9% 12%  
44 2% 3%  
45 0.5% 1.2% Last Result
46 0.5% 0.7%  
47 0.2% 0.2%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0.2% 100%  
21 0.8% 99.8%  
22 2% 99.0%  
23 7% 97%  
24 7% 90%  
25 16% 83%  
26 15% 67%  
27 21% 52% Median
28 17% 31%  
29 5% 14%  
30 5% 9%  
31 2% 4%  
32 0.6% 2%  
33 1.3% 2%  
34 0.5% 0.6%  
35 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.5% 99.9%  
17 2% 99.4%  
18 6% 98%  
19 12% 92%  
20 15% 80%  
21 19% 64% Median
22 22% 46%  
23 10% 24%  
24 6% 15%  
25 5% 8%  
26 2% 3%  
27 0.6% 0.7% Last Result
28 0.1% 0.2%  
29 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 0.9% 99.9%  
10 5% 99.0%  
11 11% 94% Last Result
12 26% 83%  
13 20% 57% Median
14 23% 36%  
15 7% 13%  
16 5% 6%  
17 1.0% 1.3%  
18 0.3% 0.3%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0.8% 100%  
3 0% 99.2%  
4 0% 99.2%  
5 0% 99.2%  
6 0% 99.2%  
7 0.8% 99.2%  
8 6% 98%  
9 22% 93%  
10 32% 70% Median
11 19% 38%  
12 10% 19%  
13 7% 8%  
14 0.9% 1.3%  
15 0.4% 0.4%  
16 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 15% 100% Last Result
2 43% 85% Median
3 9% 42%  
4 4% 34%  
5 0% 30%  
6 0% 30%  
7 15% 30%  
8 10% 15%  
9 4% 4%  
10 0.8% 0.9%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 25% 100%  
1 60% 75% Median
2 6% 16%  
3 9% 10%  
4 0% 0.8%  
5 0% 0.8%  
6 0% 0.8%  
7 0.4% 0.8%  
8 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 26% 100%  
1 50% 74% Median
2 24% 24%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 106 100% 102–110 101–112 100–112 98–114
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 103 100% 98–107 97–108 96–109 94–111
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 97 100% 93–102 92–103 91–103 88–106
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 97 100% 92–101 90–102 89–102 87–105
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 93 99.2% 89–97 87–98 86–99 84–100
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 89 88% 84–93 83–94 81–96 79–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 85 51% 79–89 79–90 78–91 75–93
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 81 8% 77–84 75–86 75–87 72–89
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 80 6% 76–83 74–85 74–86 71–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 66 0% 62–70 60–71 60–72 58–73
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 66 0% 62–70 61–71 59–72 58–75
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 62 0% 58–67 57–67 56–68 54–71
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 61 0% 57–66 56–66 55–67 53–69
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 60 0% 56–65 55–65 54–66 52–68
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 41 0% 37–45 37–45 36–46 34–49
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 28 0% 26–32 25–33 24–34 22–36

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0.1% 100%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.1% 99.7%  
98 0.7% 99.6%  
99 0.9% 98.9%  
100 2% 98%  
101 3% 97%  
102 8% 93%  
103 5% 85%  
104 8% 80%  
105 11% 72% Median
106 12% 61%  
107 10% 50%  
108 11% 40%  
109 11% 29%  
110 8% 18%  
111 3% 10%  
112 4% 6%  
113 0.8% 2%  
114 0.8% 1.3%  
115 0.4% 0.5%  
116 0.1% 0.1%  
117 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0.1% 99.9%  
93 0.3% 99.9%  
94 0.6% 99.6%  
95 1.1% 99.0%  
96 1.0% 98%  
97 2% 97%  
98 5% 95%  
99 5% 90%  
100 12% 84%  
101 7% 72%  
102 9% 65%  
103 17% 56% Median
104 13% 39%  
105 6% 26%  
106 5% 20%  
107 8% 15%  
108 3% 7%  
109 2% 4%  
110 2% 2%  
111 0.4% 0.6%  
112 0.1% 0.2%  
113 0.1% 0.1%  
114 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0.1% 100%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.4% 99.8% Last Result
89 1.0% 99.4%  
90 0.7% 98%  
91 2% 98%  
92 3% 95%  
93 7% 92%  
94 7% 86%  
95 11% 79%  
96 9% 67% Median
97 11% 58%  
98 5% 47%  
99 19% 41%  
100 6% 22%  
101 5% 16%  
102 5% 12%  
103 4% 6%  
104 0.7% 2%  
105 0.6% 1.3%  
106 0.4% 0.7%  
107 0.3% 0.3%  
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0.1% 100% Majority
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0.3% 99.7%  
88 1.2% 99.4%  
89 1.1% 98%  
90 2% 97%  
91 3% 95%  
92 9% 91%  
93 7% 83%  
94 8% 76%  
95 9% 67% Median
96 7% 59%  
97 14% 51%  
98 14% 38%  
99 8% 24%  
100 6% 16%  
101 4% 11%  
102 5% 6%  
103 0.6% 2%  
104 0.6% 1.2%  
105 0.4% 0.6%  
106 0.2% 0.3%  
107 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100% Last Result
80 0% 100%  
81 0.1% 100%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.1% 99.8%  
84 0.5% 99.7%  
85 1.0% 99.2% Majority
86 2% 98%  
87 3% 96%  
88 3% 94%  
89 6% 91%  
90 16% 85%  
91 11% 69%  
92 6% 58%  
93 12% 52% Median
94 16% 39%  
95 8% 24%  
96 3% 16%  
97 7% 13%  
98 3% 6%  
99 1.1% 3%  
100 1.5% 2%  
101 0.1% 0.3%  
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0.1% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.4% 99.8%  
80 0.6% 99.5%  
81 1.5% 98.9%  
82 2% 97%  
83 4% 96%  
84 4% 92%  
85 5% 88% Majority
86 9% 82%  
87 8% 74%  
88 13% 66%  
89 10% 52% Median
90 10% 43%  
91 8% 32%  
92 8% 24%  
93 8% 15%  
94 4% 8%  
95 2% 4%  
96 1.4% 3%  
97 0.8% 1.2%  
98 0.2% 0.4%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0.2% 99.9%  
75 0.3% 99.8%  
76 0.3% 99.4%  
77 2% 99.1% Last Result
78 1.4% 98%  
79 8% 96%  
80 4% 88%  
81 6% 84%  
82 10% 78%  
83 11% 68% Median
84 6% 57%  
85 17% 51% Majority
86 3% 34%  
87 13% 31%  
88 6% 19%  
89 5% 13%  
90 4% 8%  
91 2% 4%  
92 1.0% 2%  
93 0.6% 0.9%  
94 0.2% 0.4%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.5% 99.8%  
73 0.6% 99.4%  
74 1.0% 98.8%  
75 3% 98%  
76 3% 94% Last Result
77 10% 91%  
78 7% 81%  
79 8% 75%  
80 12% 67%  
81 17% 54% Median
82 9% 37%  
83 15% 29%  
84 6% 14%  
85 2% 8% Majority
86 2% 6%  
87 3% 4%  
88 0.5% 1.3%  
89 0.6% 0.8%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100% Last Result
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.3% 99.7%  
72 0.9% 99.5%  
73 1.0% 98.6%  
74 3% 98%  
75 3% 94%  
76 9% 91%  
77 6% 82%  
78 13% 75%  
79 10% 62%  
80 11% 52% Median
81 14% 41%  
82 11% 27%  
83 8% 16%  
84 3% 9%  
85 3% 6% Majority
86 2% 3%  
87 0.2% 0.9%  
88 0.5% 0.7%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.2% 99.8%  
58 0.7% 99.7%  
59 1.2% 99.0%  
60 3% 98% Last Result
61 2% 95%  
62 7% 93%  
63 6% 85%  
64 10% 79%  
65 16% 69%  
66 10% 54% Median
67 13% 43%  
68 11% 30%  
69 4% 19%  
70 5% 15%  
71 7% 10%  
72 2% 3%  
73 0.8% 1.2%  
74 0.3% 0.4%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.2% 99.8%  
58 0.7% 99.7%  
59 2% 99.0%  
60 2% 97%  
61 3% 95%  
62 9% 92%  
63 6% 83%  
64 6% 77% Median
65 14% 71%  
66 17% 57%  
67 9% 40%  
68 7% 31%  
69 11% 25%  
70 5% 13%  
71 5% 8%  
72 2% 4%  
73 0.7% 2%  
74 0.9% 2%  
75 0.4% 0.7%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.5% 99.8%  
55 0.9% 99.3%  
56 1.2% 98%  
57 5% 97%  
58 4% 92%  
59 9% 88%  
60 11% 80%  
61 12% 68%  
62 10% 57% Median
63 11% 46%  
64 11% 35%  
65 7% 24%  
66 4% 17%  
67 8% 13%  
68 2% 5%  
69 1.1% 2%  
70 0.7% 1.2%  
71 0.4% 0.6%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 0.4% 99.7%  
54 0.9% 99.3%  
55 1.4% 98%  
56 3% 97%  
57 6% 93%  
58 7% 87%  
59 9% 80%  
60 16% 71%  
61 9% 55% Median
62 10% 46%  
63 13% 35%  
64 7% 22%  
65 3% 15%  
66 8% 12%  
67 2% 4%  
68 0.4% 2%  
69 0.8% 1.3%  
70 0.3% 0.5%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.2% 99.9%  
52 0.3% 99.7%  
53 0.9% 99.4%  
54 2% 98.5%  
55 3% 97%  
56 8% 94%  
57 6% 86%  
58 7% 80%  
59 14% 73%  
60 16% 59% Median
61 11% 44%  
62 9% 33%  
63 8% 24%  
64 5% 16%  
65 6% 11%  
66 2% 4%  
67 1.1% 2%  
68 0.9% 1.3%  
69 0.1% 0.4%  
70 0.2% 0.2%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.1% 99.9%  
34 0.5% 99.8%  
35 0.9% 99.3%  
36 2% 98%  
37 8% 97%  
38 9% 88%  
39 12% 79%  
40 12% 67%  
41 17% 55% Median
42 10% 39%  
43 8% 28%  
44 5% 20%  
45 12% 16%  
46 2% 4%  
47 0.9% 2%  
48 0.6% 1.1%  
49 0.3% 0.5%  
50 0.2% 0.2%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.5% 99.9%  
23 0.9% 99.4%  
24 3% 98%  
25 4% 96%  
26 11% 92%  
27 18% 81%  
28 16% 63%  
29 15% 47% Median
30 13% 32%  
31 6% 18%  
32 5% 12%  
33 4% 7%  
34 1.4% 3%  
35 0.7% 2% Last Result
36 0.6% 1.0%  
37 0.3% 0.4%  
38 0% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations