Opinion Poll by Respons Analyse, 2–4 April 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 25.6% 23.9–27.4% 23.4–27.9% 23.0–28.4% 22.2–29.3%
Høyre 25.0% 22.4% 20.7–24.1% 20.3–24.6% 19.9–25.1% 19.1–25.9%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 15.6% 14.2–17.1% 13.8–17.6% 13.5–18.0% 12.8–18.7%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 10.1% 9.0–11.4% 8.6–11.8% 8.4–12.1% 7.8–12.8%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.6% 6.6–8.8% 6.3–9.1% 6.1–9.4% 5.7–10.0%
Rødt 2.4% 4.7% 3.9–5.7% 3.7–5.9% 3.6–6.2% 3.2–6.7%
Venstre 4.4% 4.3% 3.6–5.2% 3.4–5.5% 3.2–5.7% 2.9–6.2%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.9% 3.2–4.8% 3.0–5.1% 2.9–5.3% 2.6–5.8%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 45 44–51 42–52 41–53 41–55
Høyre 45 40 37–44 36–45 35–45 34–48
Senterpartiet 19 31 26–34 26–34 25–34 23–35
Fremskrittspartiet 27 18 15–20 15–21 14–22 13–23
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 14 11–15 11–16 11–17 10–18
Rødt 1 9 2–9 2–10 2–11 2–11
Venstre 8 8 2–9 2–9 2–10 2–11
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 2 2–8 2–8 1–9 1–10
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 1 1–3 1–3 1–7 0–8

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.2% 100%  
41 3% 99.8%  
42 2% 97%  
43 4% 95%  
44 36% 91%  
45 7% 54% Median
46 10% 47%  
47 6% 38%  
48 2% 31%  
49 9% 29% Last Result
50 4% 20%  
51 6% 16%  
52 5% 10%  
53 3% 5%  
54 1.1% 2%  
55 0.4% 0.7%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.2% 100%  
34 1.1% 99.7%  
35 3% 98.6%  
36 3% 96%  
37 17% 93%  
38 10% 75%  
39 9% 65%  
40 9% 57% Median
41 8% 48%  
42 27% 40%  
43 3% 13%  
44 3% 10%  
45 5% 7% Last Result
46 1.1% 2%  
47 0.4% 1.0%  
48 0.2% 0.6%  
49 0.3% 0.4%  
50 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0.2% 100%  
22 0.2% 99.7%  
23 0.7% 99.6%  
24 0.5% 98.8%  
25 1.3% 98%  
26 10% 97%  
27 5% 88%  
28 15% 82%  
29 7% 67%  
30 4% 59%  
31 31% 56% Median
32 4% 25%  
33 8% 20%  
34 10% 12%  
35 2% 2%  
36 0.5% 0.5%  
37 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0% 100%  
13 1.4% 99.9%  
14 1.2% 98.5%  
15 11% 97%  
16 11% 86%  
17 11% 75%  
18 32% 64% Median
19 18% 32%  
20 8% 14%  
21 3% 6%  
22 2% 3%  
23 0.7% 1.0%  
24 0.2% 0.3%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.4% 100%  
10 2% 99.6%  
11 11% 98% Last Result
12 8% 87%  
13 22% 79%  
14 39% 57% Median
15 11% 18%  
16 4% 7%  
17 1.0% 3%  
18 2% 2%  
19 0.1% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 11% 100%  
3 0% 89%  
4 0% 89%  
5 0% 89%  
6 0.1% 89%  
7 20% 89%  
8 15% 69%  
9 46% 54% Median
10 5% 8%  
11 3% 3%  
12 0.3% 0.4%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 18% 100%  
3 4% 82%  
4 0% 79%  
5 0% 78%  
6 0.1% 78%  
7 10% 78%  
8 44% 68% Last Result, Median
9 20% 24%  
10 3% 4%  
11 1.2% 1.4%  
12 0.1% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 3% 100% Last Result
2 47% 97% Median
3 2% 50%  
4 0.1% 48%  
5 0% 48%  
6 0.2% 48%  
7 25% 48%  
8 18% 23%  
9 3% 5%  
10 1.3% 1.5%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 71% 98% Median
2 9% 27%  
3 13% 18%  
4 0% 5%  
5 0% 5%  
6 0.1% 5%  
7 4% 5%  
8 1.0% 1.1% Last Result
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 102 100% 98–106 97–108 96–110 94–111
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 98 99.9% 94–102 92–104 90–104 87–106
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 97 100% 92–101 92–102 90–103 88–105
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 97 99.8% 91–100 90–101 89–102 87–104
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 94 99.9% 91–99 91–100 88–101 86–102
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 89 97% 86–94 85–96 84–97 81–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 83 33% 78–87 78–88 77–90 74–93
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 77 2% 74–82 73–84 72–84 70–87
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 76 0.2% 73–80 72–82 71–82 68–84
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 89 71 0.1% 67–75 65–77 64–79 62–82
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 67 0% 62–70 59–71 59–73 56–75
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 65 0% 60–69 58–70 58–71 54–74
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 58 0% 57–65 55–67 54–68 53–69
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 58 0% 53–62 52–63 51–64 50–68
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 48 0% 44–51 43–54 40–54 40–57
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 40 0% 33–43 31–44 31–45 29–46

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0.1% 100%  
92 0.1% 99.8%  
93 0.1% 99.7%  
94 0.9% 99.6%  
95 0.6% 98.7%  
96 1.4% 98%  
97 2% 97%  
98 5% 95%  
99 6% 90%  
100 24% 84%  
101 6% 61% Median
102 9% 55%  
103 13% 46%  
104 3% 33%  
105 3% 30%  
106 18% 27%  
107 3% 9%  
108 2% 6%  
109 0.6% 5%  
110 4% 4%  
111 0.2% 0.5%  
112 0.2% 0.3%  
113 0% 0.1%  
114 0.1% 0.1%  
115 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0.1% 100%  
84 0% 99.9%  
85 0% 99.9% Majority
86 0.3% 99.9%  
87 0.3% 99.5%  
88 0.2% 99.2%  
89 0.5% 99.0%  
90 2% 98.5%  
91 0.3% 96%  
92 3% 96%  
93 3% 93%  
94 4% 90%  
95 9% 86%  
96 8% 77%  
97 5% 69%  
98 28% 64%  
99 15% 36% Median
100 6% 21%  
101 5% 16%  
102 3% 11%  
103 3% 8%  
104 3% 5%  
105 0.8% 2%  
106 1.1% 2%  
107 0.3% 0.5%  
108 0.1% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0.1% 99.8%  
88 0.5% 99.7% Last Result
89 0.8% 99.3%  
90 1.1% 98%  
91 0.8% 97%  
92 22% 96%  
93 4% 74% Median
94 8% 70%  
95 8% 62%  
96 3% 54%  
97 13% 50%  
98 7% 37%  
99 4% 30%  
100 13% 26%  
101 5% 13%  
102 5% 8%  
103 2% 3%  
104 0.4% 1.1%  
105 0.2% 0.7%  
106 0.1% 0.5%  
107 0.1% 0.4%  
108 0.3% 0.3%  
109 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0.1% 100%  
85 0.1% 99.8% Majority
86 0.1% 99.7%  
87 0.3% 99.6%  
88 1.0% 99.3%  
89 3% 98%  
90 5% 95%  
91 1.1% 90%  
92 8% 89%  
93 4% 82%  
94 10% 78%  
95 8% 68%  
96 5% 60%  
97 11% 55%  
98 6% 44% Median
99 6% 38%  
100 24% 33%  
101 5% 8%  
102 1.4% 4%  
103 1.4% 2%  
104 0.4% 0.8%  
105 0.2% 0.4%  
106 0.1% 0.2%  
107 0% 0.1% Last Result
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 99.9%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 0.3% 99.9% Majority
86 0.3% 99.6%  
87 1.1% 99.2%  
88 0.8% 98%  
89 1.0% 97%  
90 0.9% 96%  
91 24% 95%  
92 5% 71% Median
93 8% 67%  
94 11% 59%  
95 4% 48%  
96 13% 44%  
97 8% 31%  
98 7% 23%  
99 11% 17%  
100 1.3% 6%  
101 4% 5%  
102 0.3% 0.8%  
103 0.2% 0.4%  
104 0.1% 0.2%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0.1% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.2% 100% Last Result
80 0.1% 99.8%  
81 0.2% 99.7%  
82 0.5% 99.5%  
83 0.5% 98.9%  
84 1.3% 98%  
85 4% 97% Majority
86 4% 93%  
87 6% 88%  
88 8% 82%  
89 32% 74%  
90 4% 43% Median
91 9% 39%  
92 13% 30%  
93 3% 16%  
94 5% 13%  
95 2% 8%  
96 3% 6%  
97 2% 3%  
98 0.8% 1.0%  
99 0.1% 0.3%  
100 0.1% 0.2%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.2% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.8%  
73 0.1% 99.7%  
74 0.3% 99.6%  
75 0.3% 99.3%  
76 1.0% 99.0%  
77 0.5% 98% Last Result
78 22% 97%  
79 2% 76% Median
80 4% 74%  
81 4% 70%  
82 10% 67%  
83 14% 57%  
84 10% 43%  
85 7% 33% Majority
86 13% 26%  
87 5% 13%  
88 5% 9%  
89 0.6% 4%  
90 1.5% 4%  
91 2% 2%  
92 0.1% 0.6%  
93 0.2% 0.5%  
94 0.2% 0.3%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.2% 99.8%  
70 0.4% 99.7%  
71 0.3% 99.2%  
72 2% 98.9%  
73 3% 97%  
74 7% 94%  
75 0.6% 87%  
76 28% 86% Last Result
77 10% 58% Median
78 4% 49%  
79 10% 45%  
80 11% 34%  
81 12% 23%  
82 3% 12%  
83 3% 9%  
84 4% 6%  
85 0.4% 2% Majority
86 1.0% 2%  
87 0.6% 0.8%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.2% 99.9%  
68 0.5% 99.7% Last Result
69 0.4% 99.3%  
70 1.0% 98.9%  
71 2% 98%  
72 5% 96%  
73 6% 91%  
74 3% 85%  
75 28% 82%  
76 9% 53% Median
77 7% 45%  
78 13% 38%  
79 9% 25%  
80 9% 16%  
81 2% 7%  
82 3% 5%  
83 0.8% 2%  
84 1.0% 1.2%  
85 0.1% 0.2% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.3% 99.9%  
62 0.4% 99.6%  
63 2% 99.2%  
64 0.8% 98%  
65 3% 97%  
66 4% 94%  
67 3% 90%  
68 5% 87%  
69 6% 82% Median
70 15% 76%  
71 28% 62%  
72 5% 34%  
73 7% 29%  
74 8% 21%  
75 4% 13%  
76 2% 9%  
77 3% 7%  
78 0.3% 4%  
79 2% 3%  
80 0.5% 1.3%  
81 0.2% 0.9%  
82 0.2% 0.6%  
83 0.3% 0.4%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0.1% Majority
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.4% 99.9%  
57 0.2% 99.5%  
58 0.2% 99.3%  
59 5% 99.1%  
60 0.9% 94%  
61 2% 93%  
62 3% 92%  
63 18% 89%  
64 3% 71%  
65 3% 68%  
66 12% 65%  
67 8% 53% Median
68 6% 44%  
69 23% 38%  
70 6% 15%  
71 5% 9%  
72 2% 5%  
73 1.2% 3%  
74 0.6% 2%  
75 0.8% 1.1%  
76 0.1% 0.4%  
77 0.1% 0.3%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.6% 100%  
55 0.2% 99.4%  
56 0.2% 99.1%  
57 0.3% 98.9%  
58 5% 98.6%  
59 3% 94%  
60 6% 91%  
61 5% 85%  
62 15% 80%  
63 4% 65%  
64 3% 61%  
65 11% 58%  
66 6% 48% Median
67 8% 41%  
68 22% 33%  
69 3% 11%  
70 5% 8%  
71 2% 3%  
72 0.5% 1.4%  
73 0.2% 0.9%  
74 0.5% 0.7%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 1.2% 99.8%  
54 3% 98.6%  
55 2% 95%  
56 3% 94%  
57 5% 91%  
58 40% 86%  
59 5% 46% Median
60 5% 41% Last Result
61 4% 36%  
62 10% 32%  
63 7% 22%  
64 5% 15%  
65 3% 10%  
66 0.6% 7%  
67 3% 6%  
68 2% 3%  
69 0.2% 0.6%  
70 0.3% 0.4%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.3% 100%  
50 2% 99.6%  
51 1.3% 98%  
52 3% 96%  
53 7% 94%  
54 9% 86%  
55 3% 77%  
56 9% 74%  
57 7% 65%  
58 8% 57% Median
59 4% 49%  
60 28% 45%  
61 6% 17%  
62 2% 10%  
63 5% 8%  
64 1.1% 3%  
65 0.4% 2%  
66 0.8% 2%  
67 0.3% 0.9%  
68 0.5% 0.6%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 2% 99.7%  
41 0.3% 97%  
42 0.8% 97%  
43 2% 96%  
44 5% 94%  
45 3% 89%  
46 6% 86%  
47 16% 80%  
48 15% 63%  
49 4% 48% Median
50 4% 44%  
51 31% 40%  
52 2% 10%  
53 2% 7%  
54 3% 5%  
55 0.7% 2%  
56 1.2% 2%  
57 0.3% 0.6%  
58 0.2% 0.3%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.1% 99.9%  
28 0.3% 99.8%  
29 0.2% 99.5%  
30 1.4% 99.4%  
31 5% 98%  
32 2% 93%  
33 2% 91%  
34 4% 89%  
35 4% 85% Last Result
36 6% 82%  
37 11% 75%  
38 5% 64%  
39 7% 59%  
40 22% 51% Median
41 10% 29%  
42 4% 19%  
43 9% 15%  
44 4% 7%  
45 1.2% 3%  
46 1.3% 2%  
47 0.2% 0.4%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0.1%  
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations