Opinion Poll by Respons Analyse, 29 April–2 May 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 28.2% 26.4–30.1% 25.9–30.6% 25.5–31.1% 24.7–32.0%
Høyre 25.0% 21.6% 20.0–23.4% 19.5–23.8% 19.2–24.3% 18.4–25.1%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 13.0% 11.7–14.5% 11.4–14.9% 11.1–15.2% 10.5–16.0%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 12.5% 11.2–13.9% 10.9–14.3% 10.6–14.7% 10.0–15.4%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 8.4% 7.4–9.6% 7.1–10.0% 6.8–10.3% 6.4–10.9%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 4.4% 3.7–5.3% 3.5–5.6% 3.3–5.9% 3.0–6.4%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–6.0%
Rødt 2.4% 3.9% 3.2–4.8% 3.0–5.1% 2.9–5.3% 2.6–5.8%
Venstre 4.4% 1.9% 1.4–2.6% 1.3–2.8% 1.2–3.0% 1.0–3.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 50 47–55 46–56 45–56 44–58
Høyre 45 39 36–42 35–43 34–44 33–46
Fremskrittspartiet 27 24 21–26 20–27 19–28 18–29
Senterpartiet 19 23 20–25 19–26 19–27 17–28
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 15 13–18 13–18 12–19 11–19
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 8 2–10 2–10 2–10 1–11
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 7 2–9 2–9 1–9 1–10
Rødt 1 2 2–8 2–9 1–9 1–10
Venstre 8 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.4% 99.9%  
44 1.0% 99.6%  
45 1.3% 98.6%  
46 3% 97%  
47 6% 94%  
48 4% 88%  
49 23% 84% Last Result
50 13% 61% Median
51 6% 47%  
52 8% 41%  
53 13% 33%  
54 10% 20%  
55 4% 10%  
56 4% 7%  
57 2% 2%  
58 0.3% 0.6%  
59 0.1% 0.3%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.2% 99.9%  
33 0.7% 99.7%  
34 2% 99.0%  
35 3% 97%  
36 9% 94%  
37 7% 85%  
38 14% 78%  
39 27% 64% Median
40 11% 38%  
41 11% 27%  
42 10% 16%  
43 2% 6%  
44 2% 4%  
45 0.6% 1.2% Last Result
46 0.3% 0.6%  
47 0.2% 0.3%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.8% 99.9%  
19 3% 99.1%  
20 4% 96%  
21 4% 92%  
22 11% 88%  
23 14% 77%  
24 27% 63% Median
25 18% 36%  
26 8% 18%  
27 6% 10% Last Result
28 2% 3%  
29 1.0% 1.2%  
30 0.2% 0.3%  
31 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.4% 99.9%  
18 2% 99.5%  
19 4% 98% Last Result
20 11% 93%  
21 14% 83%  
22 16% 69%  
23 22% 53% Median
24 18% 30%  
25 6% 13%  
26 3% 7%  
27 2% 4%  
28 1.4% 2%  
29 0.3% 0.3%  
30 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.6% 99.9% Last Result
12 4% 99.3%  
13 8% 95%  
14 32% 87%  
15 17% 55% Median
16 15% 38%  
17 13% 23%  
18 8% 11%  
19 2% 3%  
20 0.3% 0.4%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.7% 100% Last Result
2 30% 99.3%  
3 2% 69%  
4 3% 67%  
5 0% 64%  
6 0% 64%  
7 9% 64%  
8 22% 56% Median
9 19% 34%  
10 12% 15%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 4% 100%  
2 7% 96%  
3 32% 89%  
4 0% 57%  
5 0% 57%  
6 0% 57%  
7 9% 57% Median
8 29% 48% Last Result
9 17% 19%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.2% 0.3%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 3% 100% Last Result
2 52% 97% Median
3 0% 45%  
4 0% 45%  
5 0% 45%  
6 0% 45%  
7 15% 45%  
8 24% 30%  
9 5% 6%  
10 1.2% 1.5%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 36% 100%  
1 46% 64% Median
2 18% 18%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 101 100% 95–105 95–106 94–108 92–111
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 99 100% 94–104 93–106 93–107 92–110
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 95 99.9% 88–101 87–102 87–103 86–104
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 93 99.4% 88–98 86–99 86–101 84–103
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 93 96% 86–97 85–98 83–99 81–100
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 88 88% 84–94 83–95 80–97 78–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 86 62% 81–90 79–91 78–93 76–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 79 10% 74–85 74–86 72–87 70–89
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 62 76 4% 72–83 71–84 70–86 69–88
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 76 0.6% 71–81 70–83 68–83 66–85
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 73 0% 70–77 68–79 66–80 64–82
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 70 0% 65–75 63–76 62–76 59–77
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 66 0% 61–70 61–72 60–73 58–74
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 64 0% 59–67 57–68 56–72 55–73
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 63 0% 59–66 56–67 55–70 54–72
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 46 0% 40–51 39–51 39–52 37–53
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 29 0% 24–34 23–34 23–35 21–36

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0% 100% Last Result
89 0.1% 100%  
90 0.1% 99.9%  
91 0.2% 99.8%  
92 0.4% 99.6%  
93 0.4% 99.2%  
94 3% 98.8%  
95 8% 96%  
96 8% 88%  
97 5% 79%  
98 4% 75%  
99 7% 70%  
100 8% 64%  
101 9% 56%  
102 11% 47%  
103 9% 36% Median
104 14% 27%  
105 7% 13%  
106 2% 6%  
107 0.8% 4%  
108 0.5% 3%  
109 0.6% 2%  
110 1.0% 2%  
111 0.5% 0.7%  
112 0.2% 0.2%  
113 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0.1% 100%  
90 0.1% 99.9%  
91 0.3% 99.8%  
92 0.8% 99.5%  
93 4% 98.7%  
94 5% 95%  
95 9% 90%  
96 12% 81%  
97 6% 69%  
98 6% 63% Median
99 9% 57%  
100 7% 48%  
101 8% 41%  
102 6% 33%  
103 9% 27%  
104 8% 17%  
105 3% 10%  
106 3% 6%  
107 1.1% 3%  
108 0.5% 2%  
109 1.1% 2%  
110 0.5% 0.7%  
111 0.1% 0.2%  
112 0.1% 0.1%  
113 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0.1% 100%  
85 0.1% 99.9% Majority
86 0.4% 99.8%  
87 6% 99.4%  
88 7% 93%  
89 1.4% 86%  
90 3% 84%  
91 8% 82%  
92 7% 73%  
93 5% 67%  
94 8% 61%  
95 8% 53%  
96 5% 45% Median
97 8% 40%  
98 6% 31%  
99 8% 25%  
100 3% 17%  
101 5% 13%  
102 5% 8%  
103 2% 3%  
104 0.7% 1.1%  
105 0.3% 0.4%  
106 0.1% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0.4% 99.8%  
85 2% 99.4% Majority
86 3% 98%  
87 4% 94%  
88 4% 91%  
89 4% 87%  
90 7% 83% Median
91 6% 76%  
92 11% 70%  
93 10% 59%  
94 16% 49%  
95 7% 32%  
96 10% 25%  
97 3% 16%  
98 4% 12%  
99 3% 8%  
100 2% 5%  
101 2% 3%  
102 0.7% 1.2%  
103 0.2% 0.5%  
104 0.2% 0.3%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0.1% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.1% 100%  
80 0.2% 99.9%  
81 0.3% 99.7%  
82 0.6% 99.4%  
83 2% 98.8%  
84 0.7% 97%  
85 3% 96% Majority
86 6% 93%  
87 2% 87%  
88 5% 85%  
89 13% 80%  
90 6% 67%  
91 5% 61%  
92 5% 56%  
93 6% 51%  
94 8% 45% Median
95 10% 37%  
96 16% 28%  
97 4% 12%  
98 4% 8%  
99 3% 4%  
100 0.5% 0.7%  
101 0.1% 0.2%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.4% 99.9%  
79 0.5% 99.5% Last Result
80 2% 99.0%  
81 0.5% 97%  
82 1.2% 97%  
83 2% 95%  
84 5% 93%  
85 8% 88% Majority
86 13% 80%  
87 8% 67%  
88 9% 59% Median
89 13% 50%  
90 10% 37%  
91 6% 27%  
92 7% 20%  
93 3% 13%  
94 4% 10%  
95 1.4% 6%  
96 1.3% 4%  
97 2% 3%  
98 0.1% 1.3%  
99 1.0% 1.1%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.3% 99.9%  
76 0.3% 99.6%  
77 0.5% 99.3% Last Result
78 2% 98.9%  
79 2% 96%  
80 3% 95%  
81 8% 92%  
82 14% 84%  
83 3% 70%  
84 5% 67%  
85 9% 62% Majority
86 6% 53%  
87 14% 47%  
88 13% 33% Median
89 6% 20%  
90 6% 14%  
91 3% 8%  
92 0.8% 5%  
93 1.3% 4%  
94 1.3% 2%  
95 0.5% 1.1%  
96 0.4% 0.6%  
97 0.1% 0.3%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.6% 99.7%  
71 0.7% 99.1%  
72 1.3% 98%  
73 2% 97%  
74 6% 95%  
75 5% 89%  
76 6% 84% Last Result
77 10% 78%  
78 13% 69%  
79 11% 56%  
80 14% 45% Median
81 10% 31%  
82 5% 22%  
83 5% 17%  
84 2% 12%  
85 4% 10% Majority
86 4% 7%  
87 1.1% 3%  
88 1.0% 2%  
89 0.2% 0.6%  
90 0.3% 0.4%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100% Last Result
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.5% 99.8%  
70 3% 99.3%  
71 4% 96%  
72 4% 92%  
73 16% 88%  
74 10% 72%  
75 8% 63% Median
76 6% 55%  
77 5% 49%  
78 5% 44%  
79 6% 39%  
80 13% 33%  
81 5% 20%  
82 2% 15%  
83 6% 13%  
84 3% 7%  
85 0.7% 4% Majority
86 2% 3%  
87 0.6% 1.2%  
88 0.3% 0.6%  
89 0.2% 0.3%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0% 99.9%  
64 0% 99.9%  
65 0.2% 99.9%  
66 0.2% 99.7%  
67 0.7% 99.5%  
68 2% 98.8%  
69 2% 97%  
70 3% 95%  
71 4% 92%  
72 3% 88%  
73 10% 84%  
74 7% 75%  
75 16% 68%  
76 10% 51%  
77 11% 41%  
78 6% 30%  
79 7% 24% Median
80 4% 17%  
81 4% 13%  
82 4% 9%  
83 3% 6%  
84 2% 2%  
85 0.4% 0.6% Majority
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.4% 99.9%  
65 0.6% 99.4%  
66 2% 98.8%  
67 2% 97%  
68 2% 95% Last Result
69 3% 94%  
70 7% 90%  
71 10% 84%  
72 14% 74%  
73 15% 59% Median
74 11% 45%  
75 9% 34%  
76 7% 25%  
77 8% 18%  
78 3% 9%  
79 1.2% 6%  
80 3% 5%  
81 1.5% 2%  
82 0.5% 0.7%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.5% 99.8%  
60 1.1% 99.3%  
61 0.5% 98%  
62 1.1% 98%  
63 3% 97%  
64 3% 94%  
65 8% 90%  
66 9% 83%  
67 6% 73%  
68 8% 67%  
69 7% 59%  
70 9% 52%  
71 6% 43% Median
72 6% 37%  
73 12% 31%  
74 9% 19%  
75 5% 10%  
76 4% 5%  
77 0.8% 1.3%  
78 0.3% 0.4%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.2% 99.9%  
58 0.3% 99.7%  
59 1.0% 99.4%  
60 3% 98% Last Result
61 6% 95%  
62 3% 89%  
63 12% 86%  
64 13% 75%  
65 7% 62% Median
66 10% 55%  
67 10% 45%  
68 10% 35%  
69 11% 24%  
70 5% 14%  
71 3% 9%  
72 3% 5%  
73 1.0% 3%  
74 1.2% 2%  
75 0.3% 0.5%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.6% 99.9%  
56 2% 99.3%  
57 4% 97%  
58 2% 94%  
59 2% 92%  
60 2% 90%  
61 2% 88%  
62 8% 85%  
63 23% 77%  
64 11% 54% Median
65 19% 43%  
66 13% 24%  
67 6% 11%  
68 0.8% 5%  
69 0.5% 5%  
70 0.8% 4%  
71 0.5% 3%  
72 0.8% 3%  
73 2% 2%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.4% 99.8%  
55 2% 99.4%  
56 3% 97%  
57 2% 94%  
58 1.4% 92%  
59 3% 91%  
60 5% 88%  
61 8% 83%  
62 14% 75%  
63 15% 61% Median
64 16% 46%  
65 16% 30%  
66 7% 14%  
67 2% 7%  
68 0.9% 5%  
69 0.5% 4%  
70 1.1% 3%  
71 0.3% 2%  
72 2% 2% Last Result
73 0.2% 0.2%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.1% 99.9%  
37 0.3% 99.8%  
38 1.4% 99.5%  
39 4% 98%  
40 4% 94%  
41 6% 90%  
42 11% 84%  
43 7% 72%  
44 5% 65%  
45 7% 60%  
46 5% 53%  
47 6% 47% Median
48 14% 42%  
49 8% 27%  
50 3% 19%  
51 12% 16%  
52 2% 4%  
53 1.5% 2%  
54 0.2% 0.3%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.5% 99.9%  
22 2% 99.4%  
23 3% 98%  
24 7% 94%  
25 5% 88%  
26 7% 82%  
27 13% 75%  
28 6% 62%  
29 7% 56%  
30 5% 49%  
31 11% 44% Median
32 13% 33%  
33 10% 20%  
34 6% 10%  
35 3% 4% Last Result
36 0.8% 1.1%  
37 0.2% 0.4%  
38 0.1% 0.2%  
39 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations