Opinion Poll by Kantar TNS, 29 April–3 May 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 25.9% 24.0–28.0% 23.4–28.6% 23.0–29.1% 22.1–30.1%
Høyre 25.0% 20.9% 19.2–22.9% 18.7–23.5% 18.2–23.9% 17.4–24.9%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 14.7% 13.2–16.4% 12.7–16.9% 12.4–17.3% 11.7–18.2%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 11.6% 10.3–13.2% 9.9–13.7% 9.6–14.1% 8.9–14.9%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.2% 6.1–8.5% 5.8–8.9% 5.5–9.2% 5.1–9.8%
Rødt 2.4% 5.4% 4.5–6.6% 4.2–6.9% 4.0–7.2% 3.6–7.8%
Venstre 4.4% 4.1% 3.3–5.2% 3.1–5.5% 2.9–5.7% 2.6–6.3%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 4.0% 3.2–5.0% 3.0–5.3% 2.8–5.6% 2.5–6.1%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.0% 3.2–5.0% 3.0–5.3% 2.8–5.6% 2.5–6.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 46 43–51 42–53 41–53 40–54
Høyre 45 36 34–40 33–42 32–44 30–46
Senterpartiet 19 26 24–32 22–32 22–34 20–35
Fremskrittspartiet 27 21 17–24 17–25 16–25 14–27
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 12 10–15 10–16 9–17 9–18
Rødt 1 9 7–11 7–12 2–13 2–15
Venstre 8 2 2–9 2–9 2–9 2–11
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 7 2–8 1–9 1–9 1–10
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 8 3–10 2–10 1–10 1–11

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.7% 99.8%  
41 3% 99.1%  
42 2% 96%  
43 6% 95%  
44 27% 89%  
45 7% 62%  
46 6% 55% Median
47 5% 50%  
48 1.2% 45%  
49 23% 44% Last Result
50 3% 21%  
51 10% 19%  
52 3% 8%  
53 3% 5%  
54 1.2% 2%  
55 0.4% 0.5%  
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.2% 99.9%  
30 0.3% 99.8%  
31 0.8% 99.4%  
32 3% 98.7%  
33 3% 95%  
34 6% 92%  
35 7% 87%  
36 34% 79% Median
37 11% 45%  
38 17% 34%  
39 6% 18%  
40 2% 12%  
41 2% 10%  
42 4% 8%  
43 0.8% 4%  
44 0.4% 3%  
45 1.1% 2% Last Result
46 1.2% 1.3%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.3% 99.9% Last Result
20 0.8% 99.5%  
21 1.1% 98.7%  
22 3% 98%  
23 3% 95%  
24 9% 92%  
25 4% 83%  
26 33% 78% Median
27 9% 45%  
28 6% 36%  
29 10% 30%  
30 4% 19%  
31 3% 16%  
32 8% 12%  
33 0.7% 4%  
34 3% 3%  
35 0.2% 0.7%  
36 0.4% 0.4%  
37 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100%  
14 0.6% 99.9%  
15 0.2% 99.3%  
16 3% 99.1%  
17 6% 96%  
18 14% 89%  
19 4% 75%  
20 17% 71%  
21 28% 54% Median
22 12% 26%  
23 3% 14%  
24 4% 11%  
25 6% 7%  
26 0.2% 1.2%  
27 0.6% 0.9% Last Result
28 0.3% 0.3%  
29 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.4% 100%  
9 4% 99.6%  
10 8% 96%  
11 20% 88% Last Result
12 32% 68% Median
13 13% 36%  
14 10% 23%  
15 7% 13%  
16 4% 7%  
17 2% 3%  
18 0.4% 0.7%  
19 0.2% 0.3%  
20 0% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 3% 100%  
3 0% 97%  
4 0% 97%  
5 0% 97%  
6 0.9% 97%  
7 6% 96%  
8 30% 90%  
9 28% 60% Median
10 17% 32%  
11 6% 15%  
12 4% 9%  
13 3% 5%  
14 2% 2%  
15 0.6% 0.7%  
16 0% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.4% 100%  
2 52% 99.6% Median
3 2% 47%  
4 0.2% 45%  
5 0% 45%  
6 4% 45%  
7 17% 41%  
8 10% 24% Last Result
9 12% 14%  
10 1.2% 2%  
11 0.7% 0.8%  
12 0% 0.1%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 8% 100% Last Result
2 38% 92%  
3 1.1% 54%  
4 0% 53%  
5 0% 53%  
6 0.3% 53%  
7 33% 53% Median
8 14% 20%  
9 4% 5%  
10 1.5% 2%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 5% 100%  
2 2% 95%  
3 17% 93%  
4 0% 76%  
5 0% 76%  
6 0.2% 76%  
7 21% 75%  
8 35% 54% Last Result, Median
9 7% 19%  
10 12% 13%  
11 0.7% 0.7%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 100 100% 96–104 94–106 91–108 90–113
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 99 99.5% 91–102 90–104 89–105 85–107
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 95 99.6% 92–102 90–103 87–104 85–104
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 95 99.4% 91–99 89–102 86–104 84–106
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 91 96% 86–95 85–97 83–99 81–103
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 87 73% 82–90 80–92 79–95 76–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 86 70% 78–90 76–91 74–93 73–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 83 16% 73–87 72–87 71–87 68–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 75 0% 69–78 68–79 67–82 64–83
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 74 0.5% 70–78 67–80 65–82 63–85
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 69 0% 65–73 63–75 61–78 56–79
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 61 0% 58–68 57–69 56–71 54–75
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 60 0% 55–63 54–66 53–66 51–68
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 57 0% 53–62 52–64 51–66 48–68
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 48 0% 45–52 43–53 41–57 38–58
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 38 0% 33–46 31–46 29–48 27–51

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0.1% 99.9%  
89 0.1% 99.8%  
90 0.8% 99.7%  
91 2% 98.8%  
92 0.4% 97%  
93 0.5% 96%  
94 3% 96%  
95 3% 93%  
96 1.2% 90%  
97 4% 89%  
98 8% 85%  
99 23% 77%  
100 6% 54% Median
101 8% 48%  
102 22% 40%  
103 6% 18%  
104 4% 12%  
105 2% 8%  
106 2% 5%  
107 0.7% 3%  
108 1.3% 3%  
109 0.2% 1.4%  
110 0.4% 1.2%  
111 0% 0.8%  
112 0.1% 0.8%  
113 0.5% 0.7%  
114 0.1% 0.1%  
115 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0.1% 100%  
84 0.4% 99.9%  
85 0.1% 99.5% Majority
86 0.1% 99.5%  
87 0.3% 99.4%  
88 0.9% 99.1% Last Result
89 2% 98%  
90 5% 96%  
91 4% 91%  
92 3% 87%  
93 2% 84%  
94 4% 82%  
95 1.2% 78%  
96 13% 77%  
97 6% 64%  
98 7% 59%  
99 4% 51% Median
100 14% 48%  
101 3% 33%  
102 21% 31%  
103 3% 10%  
104 3% 7%  
105 2% 4%  
106 1.0% 2%  
107 0.6% 0.8%  
108 0.1% 0.3%  
109 0.2% 0.2%  
110 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0.2% 100%  
82 0% 99.7%  
83 0.1% 99.7%  
84 0% 99.6%  
85 0.7% 99.6% Majority
86 0.9% 98.9%  
87 0.6% 98%  
88 0.7% 97%  
89 1.3% 97%  
90 3% 95%  
91 2% 93%  
92 6% 90%  
93 23% 84% Median
94 10% 61%  
95 2% 51%  
96 13% 50%  
97 3% 37%  
98 3% 34%  
99 10% 31%  
100 2% 20%  
101 1.2% 18%  
102 10% 17%  
103 2% 7%  
104 4% 5%  
105 0.1% 0.4%  
106 0.2% 0.3%  
107 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
108 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0.3% 99.9%  
84 0.2% 99.7%  
85 0.2% 99.4% Majority
86 2% 99.2%  
87 0.3% 97%  
88 1.2% 97%  
89 3% 96%  
90 2% 93%  
91 4% 91%  
92 7% 87%  
93 4% 80% Median
94 4% 76%  
95 23% 72%  
96 10% 49%  
97 23% 39%  
98 3% 16%  
99 5% 12%  
100 2% 8%  
101 0.6% 6%  
102 1.2% 5%  
103 1.3% 4%  
104 0.8% 3%  
105 0.7% 2%  
106 0.9% 1.3%  
107 0.1% 0.4%  
108 0.2% 0.3%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0.1% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.1% 100%  
79 0% 99.9%  
80 0.2% 99.8% Last Result
81 0.4% 99.6%  
82 0.1% 99.2%  
83 3% 99.1%  
84 0.6% 96%  
85 2% 96% Majority
86 5% 94%  
87 2% 90%  
88 6% 87%  
89 11% 81%  
90 17% 69%  
91 10% 52% Median
92 4% 42%  
93 4% 39%  
94 21% 35%  
95 4% 14%  
96 2% 10%  
97 4% 8%  
98 1.2% 4%  
99 0.6% 3%  
100 0.1% 2%  
101 0.8% 2%  
102 0.2% 1.1%  
103 0.6% 0.8%  
104 0% 0.2%  
105 0% 0.2%  
106 0.2% 0.2%  
107 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.3% 99.9%  
76 0.2% 99.6%  
77 0.5% 99.4%  
78 0.3% 98.9%  
79 3% 98.7% Last Result
80 1.0% 96%  
81 5% 95%  
82 6% 90%  
83 5% 84%  
84 6% 79% Median
85 4% 73% Majority
86 6% 69%  
87 29% 63%  
88 16% 35%  
89 7% 19%  
90 5% 12%  
91 1.3% 8%  
92 2% 6%  
93 0.7% 4%  
94 0.8% 3%  
95 2% 3%  
96 0.4% 0.6%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.4% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.6%  
72 0% 99.6%  
73 0.1% 99.5%  
74 3% 99.4%  
75 0.4% 97%  
76 3% 96%  
77 1.1% 93% Last Result
78 2% 92%  
79 5% 90%  
80 2% 85%  
81 2% 83%  
82 2% 81%  
83 4% 79%  
84 5% 75%  
85 17% 70% Majority
86 5% 53%  
87 3% 48% Median
88 7% 44%  
89 8% 37%  
90 21% 29%  
91 4% 8%  
92 2% 4%  
93 0.6% 3%  
94 2% 2%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.4% 99.8%  
69 0.5% 99.4%  
70 0.6% 99.0%  
71 1.5% 98%  
72 4% 97%  
73 4% 93%  
74 2% 89%  
75 3% 87%  
76 2% 84% Last Result
77 5% 82%  
78 7% 77%  
79 2% 70%  
80 6% 68% Median
81 4% 62%  
82 3% 58%  
83 37% 55%  
84 2% 18%  
85 2% 16% Majority
86 3% 13%  
87 9% 11%  
88 0.3% 2%  
89 0.6% 2%  
90 0.8% 1.0%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.3% 99.9%  
64 0.3% 99.6%  
65 0.7% 99.4%  
66 0.9% 98.7%  
67 2% 98%  
68 2% 95% Last Result
69 4% 94%  
70 5% 90%  
71 7% 85%  
72 7% 78% Median
73 13% 72%  
74 4% 59%  
75 27% 55%  
76 10% 28%  
77 7% 19%  
78 4% 11%  
79 3% 8%  
80 1.3% 5%  
81 0.5% 3%  
82 2% 3%  
83 0.9% 0.9%  
84 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0% 99.9%  
61 0.2% 99.9%  
62 0.1% 99.7%  
63 0.9% 99.6%  
64 0.8% 98.7%  
65 0.9% 98%  
66 1.5% 97%  
67 1.2% 96%  
68 0.7% 94%  
69 2% 94%  
70 5% 92%  
71 3% 87%  
72 23% 84%  
73 10% 61%  
74 24% 51% Median
75 4% 27%  
76 4% 24%  
77 7% 20%  
78 4% 13%  
79 2% 9%  
80 3% 7%  
81 1.1% 4%  
82 0.3% 3%  
83 2% 2%  
84 0.2% 0.7%  
85 0.2% 0.5% Majority
86 0.3% 0.3%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.5% 99.9%  
57 0.2% 99.3%  
58 0.2% 99.1%  
59 0.5% 98.9%  
60 0.3% 98%  
61 1.3% 98%  
62 0.7% 97%  
63 2% 96%  
64 2% 94%  
65 4% 92%  
66 6% 88%  
67 22% 82% Median
68 8% 59%  
69 6% 52%  
70 23% 46%  
71 8% 23%  
72 4% 15%  
73 1.3% 11%  
74 3% 9%  
75 3% 7%  
76 0.5% 4%  
77 0.4% 3%  
78 2% 3%  
79 0.8% 1.1%  
80 0.1% 0.3%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 1.0% 99.8%  
55 1.0% 98.8%  
56 2% 98%  
57 2% 95%  
58 4% 93%  
59 21% 89% Median
60 17% 68%  
61 4% 51%  
62 10% 47%  
63 11% 38%  
64 3% 27%  
65 3% 23%  
66 5% 20%  
67 4% 15%  
68 3% 11%  
69 3% 8%  
70 0.4% 5%  
71 2% 4%  
72 0.8% 2%  
73 0.5% 1.3%  
74 0.2% 0.8%  
75 0.1% 0.6%  
76 0.4% 0.5%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0% 99.9%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.4% 99.8%  
52 1.3% 99.4%  
53 0.7% 98%  
54 3% 97%  
55 13% 95%  
56 9% 82%  
57 4% 73%  
58 12% 69% Median
59 7% 57%  
60 5% 50% Last Result
61 22% 45%  
62 11% 23%  
63 2% 12%  
64 3% 10%  
65 2% 7%  
66 3% 5%  
67 1.2% 2%  
68 0.9% 1.3%  
69 0.1% 0.4%  
70 0.3% 0.3%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.5% 100%  
49 0.3% 99.5%  
50 1.1% 99.2%  
51 2% 98%  
52 2% 96%  
53 8% 94%  
54 5% 85%  
55 3% 81%  
56 16% 77%  
57 22% 61% Median
58 15% 39%  
59 5% 24%  
60 2% 19%  
61 2% 17%  
62 5% 15%  
63 2% 10%  
64 3% 7%  
65 1.3% 5%  
66 1.4% 3%  
67 1.4% 2%  
68 0.1% 0.5%  
69 0.4% 0.4%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0% 99.9%  
35 0.1% 99.9%  
36 0.1% 99.8%  
37 0.1% 99.8%  
38 1.1% 99.7%  
39 0.2% 98.6%  
40 0.8% 98%  
41 0.6% 98%  
42 0.7% 97%  
43 2% 96%  
44 4% 94%  
45 4% 91%  
46 24% 87% Median
47 3% 62%  
48 11% 59%  
49 11% 48%  
50 14% 36%  
51 3% 22%  
52 12% 19%  
53 2% 6%  
54 0.5% 5%  
55 0.4% 4%  
56 0.9% 4%  
57 0.4% 3%  
58 2% 2%  
59 0% 0.4%  
60 0% 0.4%  
61 0.4% 0.4% Last Result
62 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.2% 99.9%  
27 0.5% 99.7%  
28 0.9% 99.3%  
29 2% 98%  
30 1.0% 97%  
31 2% 96%  
32 2% 94%  
33 3% 92%  
34 3% 88%  
35 4% 85% Last Result
36 21% 81% Median
37 4% 60%  
38 15% 56%  
39 4% 41%  
40 6% 36%  
41 6% 30%  
42 6% 24%  
43 1.0% 18%  
44 2% 17%  
45 0.5% 15%  
46 10% 14%  
47 2% 5%  
48 0.8% 3%  
49 0% 2%  
50 0.7% 2%  
51 1.4% 1.5%  
52 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations