Opinion Poll by Norfakta, 7–8 May 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 25.1% 23.4–26.9% 22.9–27.5% 22.5–27.9% 21.7–28.8%
Høyre 25.0% 24.4% 22.7–26.2% 22.3–26.7% 21.9–27.2% 21.1–28.1%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 14.4% 13.0–15.9% 12.6–16.3% 12.3–16.7% 11.7–17.4%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 11.9% 10.6–13.3% 10.3–13.7% 10.0–14.0% 9.4–14.7%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.4% 6.4–8.6% 6.1–8.9% 5.9–9.2% 5.5–9.8%
Rødt 2.4% 4.9% 4.1–5.9% 3.9–6.2% 3.7–6.4% 3.4–6.9%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.2% 2.6–4.0% 2.4–4.3% 2.3–4.5% 2.0–4.9%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.3% 1.8–4.7%
Venstre 4.4% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.1–4.3% 1.8–4.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 46 43–50 42–51 41–52 40–54
Høyre 45 45 42–49 41–50 40–50 38–52
Senterpartiet 19 27 24–30 23–31 22–32 21–33
Fremskrittspartiet 27 22 19–24 19–25 19–26 17–28
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 14 12–16 11–16 11–17 10–18
Rødt 1 9 7–11 2–11 2–12 2–13
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 1–7 1–8 1–8 0–9
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 2 1–2 1–3 1–8 0–8
Venstre 8 2 2–3 1–7 1–8 1–8

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.9% 99.8%  
41 2% 98.9%  
42 3% 97%  
43 6% 94%  
44 12% 87%  
45 21% 75%  
46 17% 54% Median
47 9% 37%  
48 8% 28%  
49 8% 20% Last Result
50 4% 12%  
51 5% 9%  
52 3% 4%  
53 0.5% 1.4%  
54 0.6% 0.9%  
55 0.1% 0.3%  
56 0.2% 0.2%  
57 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 0.4% 99.8%  
39 0.8% 99.3%  
40 2% 98.5%  
41 5% 96%  
42 9% 91%  
43 17% 81%  
44 10% 64%  
45 11% 54% Last Result, Median
46 8% 43%  
47 10% 35%  
48 12% 24%  
49 5% 12%  
50 6% 7%  
51 0.8% 1.4%  
52 0.3% 0.6%  
53 0.1% 0.3%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.6% 99.8%  
22 2% 99.3%  
23 5% 97%  
24 8% 92%  
25 11% 85%  
26 23% 73%  
27 19% 51% Median
28 13% 31%  
29 7% 18%  
30 5% 11%  
31 3% 6%  
32 2% 3%  
33 0.6% 0.9%  
34 0.3% 0.4%  
35 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.2% 100%  
17 0.5% 99.8%  
18 2% 99.3%  
19 8% 98%  
20 18% 89%  
21 19% 71%  
22 13% 52% Median
23 15% 40%  
24 17% 25%  
25 5% 8%  
26 2% 3%  
27 0.6% 1.1% Last Result
28 0.4% 0.5%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.2% 100%  
10 1.4% 99.8%  
11 6% 98% Last Result
12 9% 92%  
13 32% 83%  
14 27% 52% Median
15 13% 25%  
16 7% 12%  
17 3% 4%  
18 1.0% 1.2%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 10% 100%  
3 0% 90%  
4 0% 90%  
5 0% 90%  
6 0% 90%  
7 1.0% 90%  
8 19% 89%  
9 36% 70% Median
10 20% 33%  
11 10% 13%  
12 2% 3%  
13 0.6% 0.7%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 33% 98%  
2 12% 64%  
3 40% 52% Median
4 0% 12%  
5 0% 12%  
6 0% 12%  
7 3% 12%  
8 8% 9% Last Result
9 0.7% 0.8%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.1% 100%  
1 48% 98.9% Last Result
2 45% 51% Median
3 1.3% 6%  
4 0% 5%  
5 0% 5%  
6 0% 5%  
7 1.3% 5%  
8 3% 3%  
9 0.4% 0.4%  
10 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 10% 99.7%  
2 80% 90% Median
3 5% 10%  
4 0% 5%  
5 0% 5%  
6 0% 5%  
7 2% 5%  
8 3% 3% Last Result
9 0.4% 0.4%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 99 100% 94–103 93–105 92–105 89–108
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 97 99.9% 93–101 91–103 90–103 88–105
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 96 99.7% 90–99 89–100 89–102 86–103
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 91 98% 87–95 86–97 85–98 82–100
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 88 88% 84–93 83–94 82–95 80–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 87 75% 82–91 81–92 80–93 78–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 78 2% 73–82 72–84 71–84 69–87
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 76 0.6% 71–80 70–81 69–82 68–85
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre 89 73 0.2% 70–78 68–80 67–80 65–83
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 73 0% 69–77 68–79 67–79 65–81
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 72 0% 68–76 66–78 65–79 63–81
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 62 70 0% 66–75 64–76 64–77 61–79
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 69 0% 65–73 64–75 63–75 61–77
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 67 0% 63–71 62–73 61–73 59–75
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 59 0% 56–64 55–65 54–66 52–68
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 50 0% 46–54 45–55 44–56 42–59
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 31 0% 28–36 27–37 26–39 25–41

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0% 100%  
88 0.2% 99.9%  
89 0.4% 99.8%  
90 0.7% 99.4%  
91 1.1% 98.7%  
92 2% 98%  
93 3% 96%  
94 7% 93%  
95 7% 86%  
96 6% 80%  
97 8% 74%  
98 16% 66%  
99 8% 50% Median
100 12% 43%  
101 13% 31%  
102 6% 18%  
103 4% 11%  
104 2% 7%  
105 3% 5%  
106 1.1% 2%  
107 0.5% 1.1% Last Result
108 0.3% 0.6%  
109 0.1% 0.3%  
110 0.1% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0.1% 100%  
85 0% 99.9% Majority
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0.1% 99.8%  
88 0.5% 99.6%  
89 0.5% 99.2%  
90 2% 98.7%  
91 4% 97%  
92 3% 93%  
93 6% 90%  
94 9% 84%  
95 6% 75%  
96 11% 68%  
97 13% 58%  
98 14% 44% Median
99 7% 31%  
100 6% 23%  
101 10% 17%  
102 2% 7%  
103 3% 5%  
104 1.2% 2%  
105 0.9% 1.2%  
106 0.2% 0.3%  
107 0.1% 0.2%  
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0.1% 100%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 0.2% 99.7% Majority
86 0.2% 99.6%  
87 1.0% 99.3%  
88 0.8% 98%  
89 5% 98%  
90 3% 93%  
91 6% 90%  
92 4% 84%  
93 10% 80%  
94 9% 70%  
95 8% 60%  
96 18% 52% Median
97 8% 34%  
98 10% 26%  
99 9% 16%  
100 3% 8%  
101 2% 5%  
102 1.4% 3%  
103 0.9% 1.3%  
104 0.3% 0.4%  
105 0.1% 0.1%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.1% 100%  
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.5% 99.8%  
83 0.4% 99.3%  
84 1.1% 98.9%  
85 2% 98% Majority
86 3% 96%  
87 5% 93%  
88 10% 88% Last Result
89 13% 78%  
90 7% 65%  
91 16% 58%  
92 10% 42% Median
93 11% 32%  
94 4% 20%  
95 7% 16%  
96 3% 9%  
97 3% 6%  
98 1.5% 3%  
99 0.7% 1.4%  
100 0.4% 0.8%  
101 0.2% 0.3%  
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.2% 99.9%  
80 0.9% 99.7% Last Result
81 0.6% 98.8%  
82 2% 98%  
83 4% 96%  
84 4% 92%  
85 9% 88% Majority
86 7% 79%  
87 9% 72%  
88 22% 63%  
89 7% 41% Median
90 9% 34%  
91 6% 25%  
92 8% 19%  
93 4% 11%  
94 4% 7%  
95 1.4% 4%  
96 1.1% 2%  
97 0.5% 1.0%  
98 0.2% 0.5%  
99 0.2% 0.3%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100%  
77 0.2% 99.9%  
78 0.7% 99.7%  
79 1.1% 99.0% Last Result
80 1.3% 98%  
81 4% 97%  
82 4% 93%  
83 8% 89%  
84 6% 81%  
85 9% 75% Majority
86 13% 66%  
87 18% 53% Median
88 9% 35%  
89 7% 26%  
90 8% 19%  
91 3% 11%  
92 4% 8%  
93 1.1% 3%  
94 0.9% 2%  
95 0.5% 1.1%  
96 0.3% 0.5%  
97 0% 0.2%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.2% 99.9%  
69 0.6% 99.8%  
70 0.5% 99.1%  
71 2% 98.7%  
72 3% 97%  
73 6% 93%  
74 7% 88%  
75 14% 81%  
76 7% 67%  
77 8% 60% Last Result
78 16% 52% Median
79 10% 35%  
80 10% 25%  
81 4% 15%  
82 3% 10%  
83 2% 7%  
84 3% 5%  
85 0.9% 2% Majority
86 0.6% 1.2%  
87 0.3% 0.6%  
88 0.3% 0.4%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.3% 99.8%  
68 1.1% 99.5%  
69 2% 98%  
70 3% 97%  
71 4% 94%  
72 5% 89%  
73 15% 85%  
74 7% 69%  
75 9% 62%  
76 8% 53% Last Result, Median
77 18% 44%  
78 12% 27%  
79 4% 15%  
80 4% 11%  
81 2% 7%  
82 3% 5%  
83 0.8% 2%  
84 0.6% 1.2%  
85 0.4% 0.6% Majority
86 0.2% 0.2%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.2% 99.9%  
65 0.6% 99.7%  
66 1.0% 99.1%  
67 1.5% 98%  
68 2% 97%  
69 3% 94%  
70 9% 91%  
71 10% 82%  
72 7% 73%  
73 18% 65%  
74 9% 47% Median
75 9% 38%  
76 10% 29%  
77 4% 19%  
78 6% 15%  
79 3% 10%  
80 5% 7%  
81 0.6% 2%  
82 0.9% 1.4%  
83 0.2% 0.5%  
84 0.1% 0.3%  
85 0.1% 0.2% Majority
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.2% 99.9%  
65 0.4% 99.7%  
66 2% 99.3%  
67 2% 98%  
68 4% 95% Last Result
69 5% 91%  
70 9% 86%  
71 9% 77%  
72 15% 68%  
73 10% 53% Median
74 15% 43%  
75 8% 28%  
76 7% 20%  
77 4% 12%  
78 2% 8%  
79 4% 6%  
80 0.8% 2%  
81 0.8% 1.2%  
82 0.2% 0.4%  
83 0.2% 0.2%  
84 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.2% 99.9%  
63 0.4% 99.7%  
64 1.2% 99.4%  
65 1.3% 98%  
66 3% 97%  
67 2% 94%  
68 11% 92%  
69 6% 81%  
70 7% 76%  
71 14% 68%  
72 13% 55% Median
73 11% 41%  
74 6% 30%  
75 9% 24%  
76 6% 15%  
77 3% 9%  
78 4% 6%  
79 1.4% 3%  
80 0.4% 1.1%  
81 0.4% 0.6%  
82 0.1% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.2% 99.8%  
61 0.3% 99.7%  
62 0.5% 99.4% Last Result
63 1.1% 98.8%  
64 3% 98%  
65 2% 95%  
66 4% 92%  
67 6% 88%  
68 13% 82%  
69 12% 68%  
70 8% 56%  
71 15% 48% Median
72 8% 33%  
73 6% 25%  
74 6% 19%  
75 7% 13%  
76 3% 6%  
77 1.4% 3%  
78 1.1% 2%  
79 0.4% 0.8%  
80 0.2% 0.4%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.1% 99.8%  
61 0.4% 99.7%  
62 1.2% 99.2%  
63 2% 98%  
64 3% 96%  
65 8% 93%  
66 4% 85%  
67 9% 81%  
68 14% 72%  
69 12% 58% Median
70 14% 46%  
71 8% 33%  
72 10% 25%  
73 6% 15%  
74 3% 9%  
75 4% 6%  
76 0.8% 2%  
77 0.8% 1.2%  
78 0.2% 0.5%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0% 0.1% Last Result
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.2% 99.8%  
59 0.5% 99.6%  
60 1.2% 99.0%  
61 3% 98%  
62 3% 95%  
63 9% 92%  
64 4% 83%  
65 10% 79%  
66 14% 69%  
67 12% 55% Median
68 14% 44%  
69 7% 30%  
70 9% 23%  
71 6% 14%  
72 3% 8% Last Result
73 4% 5%  
74 0.6% 1.2%  
75 0.2% 0.6%  
76 0.2% 0.4%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.4% 99.9%  
53 1.0% 99.4%  
54 1.0% 98%  
55 3% 97%  
56 5% 94%  
57 9% 89%  
58 9% 80%  
59 24% 71%  
60 8% 47% Last Result, Median
61 14% 39%  
62 7% 25%  
63 4% 18%  
64 7% 14%  
65 2% 7%  
66 3% 5%  
67 0.8% 2%  
68 0.6% 0.9%  
69 0.2% 0.3%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.2% 100%  
42 0.4% 99.8%  
43 1.1% 99.4%  
44 2% 98%  
45 4% 96%  
46 4% 92%  
47 12% 89%  
48 16% 77%  
49 8% 61%  
50 7% 53% Median
51 12% 45%  
52 8% 33%  
53 7% 25%  
54 10% 18%  
55 5% 8%  
56 0.9% 3%  
57 1.1% 2%  
58 0.9% 1.4%  
59 0.3% 0.5%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
62 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.3% 100%  
25 0.6% 99.7%  
26 2% 99.1%  
27 5% 97%  
28 7% 92%  
29 7% 85%  
30 18% 78%  
31 12% 59%  
32 11% 48% Median
33 15% 36%  
34 3% 22%  
35 5% 18% Last Result
36 7% 14%  
37 3% 7%  
38 1.1% 4%  
39 1.2% 3%  
40 1.0% 2%  
41 0.4% 0.6%  
42 0.1% 0.2%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations