Opinion Poll by Opinion Perduco, 7–13 May 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 27.1% 25.3–29.0% 24.8–29.6% 24.4–30.1% 23.5–31.0%
Høyre 25.0% 21.1% 19.5–22.9% 19.1–23.4% 18.7–23.9% 17.9–24.7%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 14.1% 12.7–15.6% 12.3–16.1% 12.0–16.5% 11.4–17.2%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 13.0% 11.7–14.5% 11.4–15.0% 11.0–15.3% 10.4–16.1%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 8.3% 7.3–9.6% 7.0–9.9% 6.7–10.2% 6.2–10.9%
Rødt 2.4% 5.0% 4.2–6.1% 4.0–6.4% 3.8–6.6% 3.5–7.2%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.6–5.9%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 2.7% 2.2–3.6% 2.0–3.8% 1.9–4.0% 1.6–4.4%
Venstre 4.4% 2.1% 1.6–2.8% 1.5–3.0% 1.4–3.2% 1.2–3.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 48 45–52 44–53 43–54 42–56
Høyre 45 39 35–42 35–43 34–43 32–46
Senterpartiet 19 26 23–28 23–29 22–30 21–32
Fremskrittspartiet 27 24 22–27 21–28 20–28 19–29
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 16 14–18 13–18 12–19 11–20
Rødt 1 10 8–11 7–12 2–12 2–13
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 2 2–8 1–9 1–10 1–11
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 1 0–3 0–3 0–7 0–8
Venstre 8 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 0.7% 99.8%  
43 2% 99.1%  
44 4% 97%  
45 6% 93%  
46 6% 88%  
47 11% 81%  
48 21% 71% Median
49 9% 50% Last Result
50 14% 40%  
51 12% 26%  
52 6% 14%  
53 4% 8%  
54 2% 5%  
55 1.4% 2%  
56 0.6% 1.0%  
57 0.2% 0.3%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.2% 99.9%  
32 0.4% 99.7%  
33 1.2% 99.3%  
34 3% 98%  
35 7% 95%  
36 11% 88%  
37 11% 77%  
38 15% 66%  
39 17% 51% Median
40 11% 34%  
41 11% 23%  
42 7% 12%  
43 3% 6%  
44 1.4% 2%  
45 0.5% 1.0% Last Result
46 0.4% 0.5%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100% Last Result
20 0.3% 99.9%  
21 1.2% 99.6%  
22 3% 98%  
23 8% 95%  
24 9% 87%  
25 18% 79%  
26 22% 60% Median
27 8% 38%  
28 21% 30%  
29 4% 9%  
30 2% 5%  
31 2% 2%  
32 0.3% 0.6%  
33 0.2% 0.3%  
34 0% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.2% 99.9%  
19 1.0% 99.7%  
20 3% 98.6%  
21 6% 96%  
22 11% 90%  
23 20% 79%  
24 26% 59% Median
25 11% 33%  
26 11% 22%  
27 5% 11% Last Result
28 3% 6%  
29 2% 2%  
30 0.3% 0.4%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.5% 99.9% Last Result
12 2% 99.4%  
13 6% 97%  
14 14% 91%  
15 21% 77%  
16 22% 56% Median
17 21% 35%  
18 9% 14%  
19 3% 4%  
20 0.8% 1.0%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 5% 100%  
3 0% 95%  
4 0% 95%  
5 0% 95%  
6 0% 95%  
7 1.3% 95%  
8 13% 94%  
9 26% 81%  
10 34% 56% Median
11 16% 21%  
12 4% 5%  
13 0.7% 0.8%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 9% 100% Last Result
2 54% 91% Median
3 2% 37%  
4 0.5% 35%  
5 0% 35%  
6 0% 35%  
7 11% 35%  
8 16% 24%  
9 5% 8%  
10 2% 3%  
11 0.8% 0.9%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 17% 100%  
1 50% 83% Median
2 4% 33%  
3 26% 28%  
4 0% 3%  
5 0% 3%  
6 0% 3%  
7 2% 3%  
8 1.0% 1.1% Last Result
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 31% 100%  
1 44% 69% Median
2 24% 24%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0% 0.1%  
5 0% 0.1%  
6 0% 0.1%  
7 0% 0.1%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 104 100% 100–108 99–109 97–110 95–112
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 101 100% 95–104 93–105 92–106 90–108
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 96 100% 92–100 91–101 90–103 88–106
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 94 99.9% 91–99 89–100 89–101 87–104
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 91 94% 86–94 84–96 83–98 81–99
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 91 96% 86–95 85–97 83–98 81–101
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 80 10% 76–85 76–87 74–88 73–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 62 78 4% 74–83 72–84 71–86 68–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 76 0.6% 72–81 71–81 70–83 68–85
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 75 0.1% 71–78 69–80 68–81 67–83
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 68 0% 65–74 64–76 63–77 61–79
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 65 0% 61–69 60–70 59–72 57–74
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 65 0% 60–68 59–70 58–70 57–73
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 63 0% 60–67 59–69 58–70 56–72
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 62 0% 59–66 58–68 57–69 54–71
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 41 0% 37–45 36–46 36–47 34–49
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 28 0% 25–32 25–33 24–34 22–36

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0.1% 100%  
94 0.4% 99.9%  
95 0.2% 99.5%  
96 1.2% 99.3%  
97 1.4% 98%  
98 2% 97%  
99 3% 95%  
100 4% 92%  
101 8% 88%  
102 7% 79% Median
103 19% 72%  
104 7% 53%  
105 15% 46%  
106 10% 31%  
107 7% 21%  
108 6% 14%  
109 4% 7%  
110 2% 3%  
111 0.9% 2%  
112 0.6% 1.0%  
113 0.3% 0.4%  
114 0.1% 0.1%  
115 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0.1% 100%  
89 0.3% 99.9%  
90 0.3% 99.6%  
91 1.2% 99.3%  
92 2% 98%  
93 2% 97%  
94 5% 95%  
95 4% 90%  
96 3% 86%  
97 6% 83%  
98 7% 77%  
99 10% 71%  
100 10% 61% Median
101 18% 51%  
102 8% 33%  
103 13% 25%  
104 4% 12%  
105 4% 8%  
106 1.4% 3%  
107 0.9% 2%  
108 0.7% 0.8%  
109 0.1% 0.2%  
110 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 99.9%  
87 0.2% 99.9%  
88 0.4% 99.7% Last Result
89 1.0% 99.3%  
90 1.3% 98%  
91 3% 97%  
92 7% 94%  
93 9% 88% Median
94 12% 79%  
95 9% 67%  
96 10% 58%  
97 15% 48%  
98 11% 34%  
99 10% 23%  
100 5% 13%  
101 3% 8%  
102 2% 5%  
103 1.3% 3%  
104 0.8% 2%  
105 0.4% 1.0%  
106 0.2% 0.5%  
107 0.1% 0.3%  
108 0.1% 0.2%  
109 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0.1% 100%  
85 0.1% 99.9% Majority
86 0.3% 99.8%  
87 0.8% 99.6%  
88 0.9% 98.7%  
89 4% 98%  
90 4% 94%  
91 5% 90%  
92 9% 86% Median
93 16% 77%  
94 15% 61%  
95 9% 46%  
96 12% 38%  
97 7% 26%  
98 7% 19%  
99 6% 13%  
100 3% 7%  
101 1.4% 4%  
102 1.1% 2%  
103 0.4% 1.2%  
104 0.4% 0.9%  
105 0.3% 0.5%  
106 0.1% 0.2%  
107 0.1% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100% Last Result
80 0.1% 99.9%  
81 0.4% 99.9%  
82 0.8% 99.4%  
83 2% 98.6%  
84 3% 96%  
85 3% 94% Majority
86 2% 91%  
87 5% 89%  
88 6% 84%  
89 9% 78%  
90 13% 69% Median
91 17% 56%  
92 16% 40%  
93 8% 23%  
94 7% 16%  
95 2% 8%  
96 2% 7%  
97 2% 5%  
98 2% 3%  
99 0.5% 1.0%  
100 0.2% 0.4%  
101 0.1% 0.2%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.1% 100%  
80 0.3% 99.9%  
81 0.4% 99.6%  
82 0.6% 99.2%  
83 1.3% 98.6%  
84 2% 97%  
85 3% 96% Majority
86 4% 92%  
87 5% 88%  
88 6% 83%  
89 5% 77%  
90 9% 72%  
91 15% 63% Median
92 16% 48%  
93 8% 32%  
94 10% 24%  
95 5% 13%  
96 3% 8%  
97 2% 5%  
98 2% 3%  
99 0.6% 1.3%  
100 0.1% 0.7%  
101 0.4% 0.5%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0.1% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.3% 99.9%  
73 0.7% 99.6%  
74 2% 98.9%  
75 2% 97%  
76 8% 95%  
77 7% 87% Last Result, Median
78 7% 80%  
79 11% 73%  
80 15% 62%  
81 13% 47%  
82 11% 34%  
83 10% 23%  
84 3% 14%  
85 3% 10% Majority
86 2% 7%  
87 2% 5%  
88 1.5% 4%  
89 1.0% 2%  
90 0.5% 1.0%  
91 0.3% 0.5%  
92 0.1% 0.3%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100% Last Result
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.4% 99.9%  
69 0.1% 99.4%  
70 0.6% 99.3%  
71 2% 98.7%  
72 2% 97%  
73 3% 94%  
74 5% 92%  
75 10% 86%  
76 8% 76% Median
77 17% 68%  
78 15% 51%  
79 9% 36%  
80 5% 28%  
81 6% 22%  
82 5% 16%  
83 4% 12%  
84 3% 8%  
85 2% 4% Majority
86 1.3% 3%  
87 0.6% 1.4%  
88 0.4% 0.8%  
89 0.2% 0.3%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.2% 99.9%  
68 0.4% 99.8%  
69 1.2% 99.3%  
70 2% 98%  
71 2% 97%  
72 7% 94%  
73 7% 87%  
74 12% 80%  
75 11% 68% Median
76 8% 57% Last Result
77 10% 49%  
78 11% 39%  
79 10% 29%  
80 5% 18%  
81 8% 13%  
82 2% 5%  
83 2% 3%  
84 0.6% 1.2%  
85 0.2% 0.6% Majority
86 0.2% 0.4%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.2% 100%  
66 0.2% 99.8%  
67 2% 99.6%  
68 0.9% 98% Last Result
69 3% 97%  
70 4% 94%  
71 5% 90%  
72 7% 85%  
73 8% 78%  
74 15% 69% Median
75 9% 54%  
76 14% 45%  
77 12% 31%  
78 9% 19%  
79 4% 10%  
80 2% 6%  
81 2% 4%  
82 0.9% 2%  
83 0.5% 0.8%  
84 0.2% 0.2%  
85 0% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.7% 99.8%  
62 0.9% 99.1%  
63 2% 98%  
64 4% 97%  
65 4% 92%  
66 14% 88%  
67 8% 74% Median
68 18% 66%  
69 10% 48%  
70 10% 38%  
71 6% 29%  
72 5% 22%  
73 3% 17%  
74 4% 13%  
75 4% 10%  
76 2% 5%  
77 2% 3%  
78 1.1% 2%  
79 0.3% 0.7%  
80 0.3% 0.4%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.3% 99.9%  
57 0.6% 99.6%  
58 0.9% 99.0%  
59 2% 98%  
60 4% 96%  
61 7% 93%  
62 7% 86%  
63 10% 79%  
64 15% 69%  
65 7% 53% Median
66 19% 46%  
67 7% 28%  
68 8% 20%  
69 4% 12%  
70 3% 8%  
71 1.4% 5%  
72 1.4% 3%  
73 1.2% 2%  
74 0.2% 0.7%  
75 0.4% 0.5%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.3% 99.9%  
57 0.9% 99.6%  
58 2% 98.7%  
59 3% 97%  
60 5% 94% Last Result
61 5% 88%  
62 8% 83%  
63 8% 75%  
64 14% 67% Median
65 16% 53%  
66 12% 37%  
67 8% 25%  
68 9% 17%  
69 3% 8%  
70 3% 6%  
71 1.4% 2%  
72 0.5% 1.0%  
73 0.3% 0.5%  
74 0.2% 0.2%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.2% 99.8%  
56 0.9% 99.6%  
57 1.0% 98.7%  
58 2% 98%  
59 4% 96%  
60 9% 92%  
61 10% 83%  
62 11% 73%  
63 17% 62%  
64 12% 45% Median
65 10% 34%  
66 10% 23%  
67 4% 14%  
68 3% 10%  
69 3% 7%  
70 1.5% 4%  
71 1.1% 2%  
72 0.6% 1.0%  
73 0.1% 0.5%  
74 0.3% 0.4%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.4% 99.8%  
55 0.7% 99.4%  
56 1.0% 98.7%  
57 2% 98%  
58 3% 95%  
59 5% 92%  
60 13% 87%  
61 10% 74%  
62 18% 64%  
63 12% 46% Median
64 10% 35%  
65 11% 24%  
66 4% 13%  
67 3% 9%  
68 2% 6%  
69 2% 4%  
70 0.9% 2%  
71 0.6% 1.0%  
72 0.1% 0.4% Last Result
73 0.2% 0.3%  
74 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.1% 99.9%  
34 0.4% 99.8%  
35 2% 99.4%  
36 5% 98%  
37 5% 93%  
38 7% 89%  
39 14% 81%  
40 12% 68%  
41 10% 55% Median
42 12% 46%  
43 15% 33%  
44 8% 18%  
45 5% 11%  
46 3% 6%  
47 1.3% 3%  
48 1.2% 2%  
49 0.3% 0.6%  
50 0.2% 0.3%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.4% 99.9%  
23 0.8% 99.4%  
24 2% 98.6%  
25 11% 97%  
26 8% 86%  
27 21% 78%  
28 10% 57% Median
29 13% 47%  
30 7% 33%  
31 7% 26%  
32 13% 20%  
33 4% 7%  
34 1.2% 3%  
35 0.8% 1.3% Last Result
36 0.3% 0.5%  
37 0.1% 0.2%  
38 0% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations