Opinion Poll by Norstat, 21–27 May 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 23.7% 22.0–25.6% 21.5–26.1% 21.1–26.6% 20.3–27.5%
Høyre 25.0% 22.9% 21.2–24.7% 20.7–25.2% 20.3–25.7% 19.5–26.6%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 13.3% 12.0–14.8% 11.6–15.3% 11.3–15.6% 10.7–16.4%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 12.4% 11.2–13.9% 10.8–14.4% 10.5–14.7% 9.9–15.5%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 6.5% 5.6–7.6% 5.3–8.0% 5.1–8.3% 4.7–8.8%
Rødt 2.4% 4.8% 4.0–5.8% 3.8–6.1% 3.6–6.4% 3.2–6.9%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 4.3% 3.5–5.2% 3.3–5.5% 3.1–5.7% 2.8–6.2%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.7% 3.0–4.6% 2.9–4.9% 2.7–5.1% 2.4–5.6%
Venstre 4.4% 3.4% 2.8–4.3% 2.6–4.5% 2.4–4.8% 2.1–5.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 43 40–47 40–49 39–51 38–53
Høyre 45 41 37–45 36–46 36–47 35–49
Senterpartiet 19 25 19–28 18–29 18–29 17–31
Fremskrittspartiet 27 23 19–25 18–26 17–27 16–28
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 11 9–12 8–13 8–14 7–15
Rødt 1 8 2–10 2–10 2–10 2–11
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 7 2–8 2–9 2–9 1–10
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 2–7 1–8 1–8 1–9
Venstre 8 2 2–6 2–7 2–7 1–8

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 0.5% 99.7%  
39 3% 99.1%  
40 10% 96%  
41 18% 86%  
42 12% 68%  
43 12% 56% Median
44 12% 44%  
45 9% 32%  
46 9% 23%  
47 5% 14%  
48 3% 9%  
49 2% 6% Last Result
50 1.0% 4%  
51 0.6% 3%  
52 0.6% 2%  
53 1.2% 1.4%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.2% 99.9%  
35 1.1% 99.7%  
36 8% 98.6%  
37 8% 91%  
38 13% 83%  
39 7% 70%  
40 10% 64%  
41 11% 54% Median
42 18% 44%  
43 8% 25%  
44 5% 18%  
45 6% 12% Last Result
46 4% 7%  
47 1.4% 3%  
48 0.8% 1.4%  
49 0.4% 0.7%  
50 0.2% 0.3%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 1.0% 100%  
18 5% 99.0%  
19 6% 94% Last Result
20 3% 88%  
21 3% 85%  
22 12% 82%  
23 6% 70%  
24 14% 64%  
25 21% 50% Median
26 12% 29%  
27 6% 18%  
28 6% 11%  
29 3% 6%  
30 2% 2%  
31 0.3% 0.7%  
32 0.2% 0.4%  
33 0.2% 0.2%  
34 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.9% 99.9%  
17 4% 99.0%  
18 4% 95%  
19 4% 91%  
20 8% 87%  
21 12% 79%  
22 17% 68%  
23 13% 51% Median
24 12% 38%  
25 19% 26%  
26 5% 8%  
27 1.5% 3% Last Result
28 0.7% 1.0%  
29 0.3% 0.4%  
30 0% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.2% 100%  
7 2% 99.8%  
8 6% 98%  
9 20% 92%  
10 21% 72%  
11 26% 51% Last Result, Median
12 18% 26%  
13 4% 8%  
14 2% 3%  
15 0.8% 1.2%  
16 0.3% 0.4%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100% Last Result
2 10% 99.9%  
3 0% 90%  
4 0% 90%  
5 0.2% 90%  
6 7% 90%  
7 24% 82%  
8 29% 58% Median
9 16% 29%  
10 10% 13%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0.3% 0.3%  
13 0% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100% Last Result
2 16% 98%  
3 9% 82%  
4 11% 74%  
5 0.1% 63%  
6 11% 63%  
7 27% 52% Median
8 17% 24%  
9 6% 7%  
10 1.4% 2%  
11 0.2% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 8% 99.9%  
2 7% 92%  
3 47% 85% Median
4 0% 38%  
5 0.5% 38%  
6 11% 38%  
7 21% 27%  
8 5% 6% Last Result
9 1.0% 1.2%  
10 0.1% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100%  
2 77% 98% Median
3 5% 21%  
4 0.1% 16%  
5 0.3% 16%  
6 7% 16%  
7 7% 9%  
8 2% 2% Last Result
9 0.2% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 94 99.3% 89–99 88–100 87–102 84–106
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 91 95% 86–96 84–98 83–100 80–103
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 88 79% 83–93 81–95 79–97 78–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 85 61% 80–90 79–93 77–95 74–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 83 38% 79–89 76–91 76–93 73–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 78 6% 73–83 72–85 70–86 68–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 77 5% 72–83 70–85 69–86 67–88
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 76 3% 71–82 69–83 67–85 64–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 72 0.1% 66–76 65–78 64–80 62–82
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 70 0% 65–75 63–77 62–79 60–83
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 62 67 0% 62–72 61–74 60–76 57–78
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 67 0% 63–72 61–73 60–75 59–77
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 66 0% 62–71 60–72 59–74 57–76
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 63 0% 59–68 57–69 56–70 54–72
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 54 0% 50–58 49–60 48–61 47–63
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 48 0% 43–53 42–55 41–56 39–59
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 31 0% 26–36 24–38 23–40 22–42

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0% 100%  
83 0.2% 99.9%  
84 0.4% 99.7%  
85 0.3% 99.3% Majority
86 1.3% 99.0%  
87 2% 98%  
88 3% 96%  
89 3% 93%  
90 4% 90%  
91 10% 86%  
92 11% 76%  
93 13% 64%  
94 8% 51% Median
95 6% 43%  
96 7% 37%  
97 5% 31%  
98 11% 25%  
99 6% 14%  
100 4% 8%  
101 1.1% 5%  
102 1.1% 3%  
103 0.8% 2%  
104 0.8% 2%  
105 0.1% 0.7%  
106 0.4% 0.6%  
107 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
108 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0% 99.8%  
79 0.1% 99.8%  
80 0.7% 99.7%  
81 0.5% 99.0% Last Result
82 0.8% 98%  
83 2% 98%  
84 1.3% 96%  
85 2% 95% Majority
86 5% 92%  
87 5% 88%  
88 6% 83%  
89 11% 77%  
90 14% 65%  
91 10% 51%  
92 9% 42%  
93 6% 32%  
94 6% 26% Median
95 4% 20%  
96 6% 16%  
97 2% 9%  
98 3% 7%  
99 0.9% 4%  
100 1.3% 3%  
101 0.5% 2%  
102 0.2% 1.4%  
103 1.0% 1.3%  
104 0% 0.3%  
105 0.2% 0.3%  
106 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0% 99.9%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.2% 99.8%  
78 0.5% 99.6%  
79 2% 99.1%  
80 1.2% 97%  
81 2% 96%  
82 3% 95%  
83 5% 92%  
84 8% 87%  
85 9% 79% Majority
86 8% 70%  
87 5% 62%  
88 19% 57% Last Result
89 7% 38% Median
90 4% 31%  
91 10% 27%  
92 5% 17%  
93 3% 13%  
94 3% 10%  
95 2% 6%  
96 1.5% 4%  
97 1.3% 3%  
98 0.6% 2%  
99 0.5% 0.9%  
100 0.2% 0.3%  
101 0.1% 0.2%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.4% 99.8%  
75 0.5% 99.4%  
76 0.9% 99.0%  
77 1.5% 98%  
78 1.4% 97%  
79 3% 95%  
80 3% 92% Last Result
81 4% 89%  
82 4% 86%  
83 9% 82%  
84 12% 73%  
85 18% 61% Majority
86 9% 43%  
87 5% 34% Median
88 10% 29%  
89 7% 19%  
90 3% 12%  
91 3% 9%  
92 1.3% 6%  
93 1.4% 5%  
94 0.6% 4%  
95 2% 3%  
96 0.2% 1.0%  
97 0.3% 0.8%  
98 0.4% 0.5%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.3% 99.8%  
74 0.6% 99.5%  
75 1.1% 98.9%  
76 3% 98%  
77 3% 95%  
78 2% 92%  
79 3% 90%  
80 6% 87% Last Result
81 14% 82%  
82 12% 68%  
83 10% 56%  
84 7% 46%  
85 10% 38% Majority
86 5% 28% Median
87 3% 23%  
88 7% 20%  
89 4% 13%  
90 2% 9%  
91 2% 7%  
92 2% 5%  
93 1.4% 3%  
94 0.7% 2%  
95 0.1% 0.9%  
96 0.7% 0.8%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.3% 99.9%  
68 0.2% 99.6%  
69 0.9% 99.4%  
70 2% 98%  
71 2% 97%  
72 3% 95%  
73 3% 93%  
74 4% 90%  
75 7% 85%  
76 8% 78%  
77 19% 70%  
78 11% 50%  
79 9% 39% Last Result, Median
80 8% 30%  
81 5% 22%  
82 6% 17%  
83 2% 11%  
84 3% 9%  
85 2% 6% Majority
86 2% 3%  
87 0.7% 2%  
88 0.8% 1.1%  
89 0.3% 0.4%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.2% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.8%  
67 0.5% 99.7%  
68 0.8% 99.3%  
69 2% 98%  
70 2% 96%  
71 3% 95%  
72 6% 92%  
73 5% 86%  
74 7% 81%  
75 7% 74%  
76 4% 67%  
77 18% 63% Last Result
78 9% 45% Median
79 7% 36%  
80 5% 30%  
81 7% 25%  
82 7% 17%  
83 3% 11%  
84 2% 7%  
85 2% 5% Majority
86 1.5% 3%  
87 0.7% 2%  
88 0.4% 0.9%  
89 0.3% 0.4%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.5% 99.8%  
65 0.4% 99.4%  
66 1.1% 99.0%  
67 1.0% 98%  
68 0.6% 97%  
69 1.5% 96%  
70 2% 95%  
71 6% 92%  
72 6% 87%  
73 8% 81%  
74 8% 73%  
75 13% 65%  
76 6% 52% Median
77 16% 46%  
78 6% 30%  
79 6% 23%  
80 5% 17%  
81 2% 12%  
82 4% 10%  
83 2% 6%  
84 2% 4%  
85 2% 3% Majority
86 0.4% 1.2%  
87 0.3% 0.8%  
88 0.3% 0.6%  
89 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.5% 99.8%  
63 0.8% 99.3%  
64 2% 98%  
65 2% 96%  
66 4% 94%  
67 6% 90%  
68 4% 84%  
69 7% 80%  
70 7% 73%  
71 15% 66% Median
72 8% 51%  
73 16% 44%  
74 6% 27%  
75 6% 21%  
76 6% 15% Last Result
77 2% 10%  
78 3% 8%  
79 1.3% 4%  
80 1.4% 3%  
81 0.9% 2%  
82 0.5% 0.8%  
83 0.1% 0.3%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0.1% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0% 99.9%  
59 0.2% 99.9%  
60 0.6% 99.7%  
61 0.4% 99.0%  
62 2% 98.6%  
63 2% 97%  
64 3% 95%  
65 6% 92%  
66 5% 86%  
67 6% 81%  
68 10% 75%  
69 9% 65% Median
70 9% 56%  
71 10% 47%  
72 5% 37%  
73 14% 32%  
74 3% 18%  
75 5% 15%  
76 4% 10%  
77 2% 6%  
78 1.4% 4%  
79 1.0% 3%  
80 0.4% 2%  
81 0.5% 1.4%  
82 0.4% 0.9%  
83 0.5% 0.5%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0% 99.9%  
56 0.3% 99.9%  
57 0.2% 99.7%  
58 0.7% 99.5%  
59 1.2% 98.7%  
60 1.4% 98%  
61 3% 96%  
62 4% 93% Last Result
63 4% 89%  
64 15% 85%  
65 5% 70%  
66 8% 65%  
67 11% 58%  
68 16% 47%  
69 9% 31% Median
70 6% 22%  
71 3% 16%  
72 5% 13%  
73 2% 9%  
74 2% 6%  
75 1.1% 4%  
76 1.1% 3%  
77 0.9% 2%  
78 0.9% 1.1%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.3% 100%  
59 1.0% 99.7%  
60 1.4% 98.7%  
61 3% 97%  
62 4% 94%  
63 5% 91%  
64 6% 86%  
65 4% 80%  
66 16% 76%  
67 9% 59%  
68 16% 50% Last Result, Median
69 7% 34%  
70 8% 26%  
71 5% 18%  
72 4% 14%  
73 5% 9%  
74 2% 5%  
75 1.4% 3%  
76 0.3% 1.3%  
77 0.6% 1.0%  
78 0.2% 0.4%  
79 0.2% 0.2%  
80 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.3% 99.9%  
57 0.9% 99.6%  
58 0.6% 98.7%  
59 2% 98%  
60 1.4% 96%  
61 4% 94%  
62 8% 90%  
63 8% 82%  
64 7% 75%  
65 11% 68%  
66 18% 57% Median
67 9% 39%  
68 7% 30%  
69 7% 24%  
70 6% 16%  
71 3% 11%  
72 3% 8%  
73 1.3% 5%  
74 1.2% 3%  
75 1.0% 2%  
76 0.8% 1.1%  
77 0.2% 0.3%  
78 0% 0.2%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.2% 100%  
54 0.5% 99.8%  
55 1.2% 99.2%  
56 1.4% 98%  
57 3% 97%  
58 2% 94%  
59 4% 92%  
60 9% 88%  
61 9% 78%  
62 7% 70%  
63 13% 62%  
64 17% 49% Median
65 10% 32%  
66 7% 22%  
67 4% 16%  
68 6% 11%  
69 2% 5%  
70 0.9% 3%  
71 1.0% 2%  
72 0.4% 0.6% Last Result
73 0.1% 0.3%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.9% 99.8%  
48 2% 98.9%  
49 3% 97%  
50 7% 94%  
51 5% 87%  
52 19% 83%  
53 10% 63%  
54 16% 53% Median
55 11% 37%  
56 7% 26%  
57 5% 19%  
58 5% 14%  
59 3% 9%  
60 2% 6% Last Result
61 2% 4%  
62 1.1% 2%  
63 1.1% 1.4%  
64 0.1% 0.3%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.5% 99.9%  
40 1.0% 99.4%  
41 3% 98%  
42 4% 95%  
43 10% 92%  
44 6% 82%  
45 8% 76%  
46 9% 68% Median
47 7% 59%  
48 9% 52%  
49 7% 43%  
50 7% 36%  
51 15% 29%  
52 3% 14%  
53 3% 11%  
54 2% 8%  
55 2% 6%  
56 2% 4%  
57 0.9% 2%  
58 0.6% 1.3%  
59 0.3% 0.7%  
60 0.1% 0.4%  
61 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.2% 100%  
22 0.8% 99.7%  
23 2% 98.9%  
24 3% 97%  
25 4% 94%  
26 3% 91%  
27 10% 88%  
28 4% 78%  
29 11% 74%  
30 7% 63% Median
31 8% 56%  
32 7% 48%  
33 10% 40%  
34 17% 31%  
35 3% 14% Last Result
36 3% 11%  
37 2% 7%  
38 2% 6%  
39 0.8% 3%  
40 2% 3%  
41 0.2% 0.8%  
42 0.5% 0.6%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations