Opinion Poll by Ipsos MMI, 27–29 May 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 26.9% 24.9–29.1% 24.3–29.7% 23.9–30.3% 22.9–31.3%
Høyre 25.0% 20.7% 18.9–22.7% 18.4–23.3% 17.9–23.8% 17.1–24.8%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 15.2% 13.6–17.0% 13.1–17.5% 12.7–17.9% 12.0–18.8%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 12.0% 10.6–13.7% 10.2–14.2% 9.9–14.6% 9.3–15.4%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 6.4% 5.3–7.7% 5.1–8.0% 4.8–8.4% 4.4–9.0%
Rødt 2.4% 5.1% 4.2–6.3% 4.0–6.7% 3.8–7.0% 3.4–7.6%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 4.6% 3.7–5.7% 3.5–6.1% 3.3–6.4% 2.9–7.0%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 2.3% 1.7–3.2% 1.6–3.4% 1.4–3.7% 1.2–4.1%
Venstre 4.4% 2.0% 1.5–2.9% 1.4–3.1% 1.2–3.3% 1.0–3.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 49 45–54 44–55 43–56 41–58
Høyre 45 36 34–40 32–41 31–42 30–44
Senterpartiet 19 28 24–33 23–33 22–34 20–35
Fremskrittspartiet 27 21 17–24 17–25 16–26 15–28
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 10 9–13 8–14 8–14 7–16
Rødt 1 9 7–10 6–11 2–12 2–13
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 8 3–9 2–10 2–10 1–12
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 1 0–2 0–3 0–3 0–6
Venstre 8 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.3% 99.9%  
41 0.4% 99.6%  
42 0.5% 99.2%  
43 2% 98.7%  
44 4% 97%  
45 8% 93%  
46 12% 85%  
47 7% 73%  
48 14% 66%  
49 5% 52% Last Result, Median
50 8% 46%  
51 8% 38%  
52 11% 30%  
53 6% 19%  
54 6% 13%  
55 2% 7%  
56 3% 4%  
57 0.7% 1.4%  
58 0.4% 0.6%  
59 0.2% 0.2%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.2% 100%  
29 0.2% 99.8%  
30 0.9% 99.6%  
31 2% 98.7%  
32 2% 97%  
33 4% 94%  
34 8% 91%  
35 17% 83%  
36 23% 66% Median
37 12% 43%  
38 12% 31%  
39 7% 19%  
40 3% 12%  
41 4% 9%  
42 3% 5%  
43 0.7% 2%  
44 0.4% 0.9%  
45 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
46 0.1% 0.2%  
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.3% 99.9% Last Result
20 0.4% 99.6%  
21 0.9% 99.2%  
22 1.1% 98%  
23 4% 97%  
24 8% 94%  
25 11% 86%  
26 12% 75%  
27 12% 63%  
28 17% 51% Median
29 10% 34%  
30 5% 24%  
31 4% 18%  
32 3% 14%  
33 7% 11%  
34 4% 4%  
35 0.4% 0.6%  
36 0.2% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.1% 99.9%  
15 0.7% 99.8%  
16 2% 99.1%  
17 9% 97%  
18 8% 88%  
19 20% 80%  
20 10% 60%  
21 11% 50% Median
22 12% 39%  
23 11% 27%  
24 9% 16%  
25 3% 6%  
26 1.4% 3%  
27 1.1% 2% Last Result
28 0.4% 0.6%  
29 0.1% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0.1% 99.9%  
7 1.5% 99.8%  
8 8% 98%  
9 22% 91%  
10 19% 69% Median
11 18% 50% Last Result
12 20% 32%  
13 6% 12%  
14 4% 6%  
15 1.2% 2%  
16 0.6% 0.7%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 5% 100%  
3 0% 95%  
4 0% 95%  
5 0% 95%  
6 4% 95%  
7 17% 92%  
8 25% 75%  
9 26% 50% Median
10 15% 25%  
11 5% 9%  
12 3% 4%  
13 0.7% 0.9%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.6% 100% Last Result
2 9% 99.4%  
3 6% 91%  
4 1.2% 84%  
5 0% 83%  
6 5% 83%  
7 24% 78%  
8 31% 55% Median
9 16% 24%  
10 6% 8%  
11 1.5% 2%  
12 0.5% 0.6%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 37% 100%  
1 47% 63% Median
2 7% 15%  
3 7% 8%  
4 0% 0.8%  
5 0% 0.8%  
6 0.5% 0.8%  
7 0.2% 0.3%  
8 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 23% 100%  
1 41% 77% Median
2 35% 36%  
3 0.1% 0.3%  
4 0% 0.2%  
5 0% 0.2%  
6 0.1% 0.2%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 103 100% 97–107 96–109 95–110 93–113
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 96 99.7% 92–100 90–102 88–103 86–106
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 96 99.7% 91–100 88–101 87–103 85–105
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 95 99.4% 89–99 87–101 86–103 84–104
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 86 75% 82–92 80–93 79–95 77–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 88 81% 83–92 82–93 80–94 78–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 85 60% 80–89 77–91 75–92 74–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 78 2% 73–81 72–83 71–84 68–87
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 77 1.1% 72–81 71–82 70–83 67–86
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 66 0% 62–71 61–73 59–74 57–77
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 60 0% 55–65 54–66 53–67 50–69
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 59 0% 55–64 54–65 53–67 51–70
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 58 0% 54–63 53–64 52–66 50–68
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 57 0% 53–62 52–63 51–64 49–67
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 38 0% 35–42 34–43 33–44 30–47
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 29 0% 26–34 25–35 23–36 22–38

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0.1% 99.9%  
91 0.1% 99.9%  
92 0.2% 99.8%  
93 0.5% 99.5%  
94 0.9% 99.0%  
95 1.5% 98%  
96 3% 97%  
97 3% 93%  
98 3% 90%  
99 6% 87%  
100 5% 81%  
101 6% 76%  
102 8% 70%  
103 15% 62%  
104 15% 47% Median
105 7% 32%  
106 10% 25%  
107 5% 15%  
108 4% 9%  
109 2% 5%  
110 0.9% 3%  
111 0.6% 2%  
112 0.5% 1.4%  
113 0.4% 0.9%  
114 0.2% 0.5%  
115 0.1% 0.2%  
116 0.1% 0.1%  
117 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0.1% 100%  
84 0.2% 99.9%  
85 0.1% 99.7% Majority
86 0.4% 99.5%  
87 1.1% 99.1%  
88 0.7% 98%  
89 2% 97%  
90 3% 96%  
91 3% 93%  
92 3% 90%  
93 8% 87%  
94 8% 79%  
95 13% 71%  
96 18% 58% Median
97 14% 40%  
98 8% 26%  
99 7% 18%  
100 4% 11%  
101 2% 8%  
102 1.0% 6%  
103 3% 5%  
104 0.4% 2%  
105 0.5% 1.5%  
106 0.5% 0.9%  
107 0.3% 0.5%  
108 0.1% 0.2%  
109 0.1% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0.1% 100%  
83 0% 99.9%  
84 0.2% 99.9%  
85 0.3% 99.7% Majority
86 0.8% 99.4%  
87 3% 98.5%  
88 1.3% 96% Last Result
89 2% 95%  
90 2% 93%  
91 4% 90%  
92 8% 86%  
93 8% 78%  
94 8% 70%  
95 8% 62%  
96 12% 54% Median
97 13% 42%  
98 13% 30%  
99 4% 17%  
100 6% 13%  
101 3% 7%  
102 1.2% 5%  
103 1.4% 4%  
104 0.6% 2%  
105 1.4% 2%  
106 0.2% 0.3%  
107 0.1% 0.2%  
108 0.1% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0.1% 100%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.2% 99.9%  
84 0.3% 99.7%  
85 0.9% 99.4% Majority
86 2% 98.5%  
87 2% 96%  
88 3% 95%  
89 2% 92%  
90 3% 89%  
91 8% 86%  
92 6% 78%  
93 6% 72%  
94 9% 66%  
95 14% 57% Median
96 15% 43%  
97 6% 28%  
98 8% 22%  
99 5% 14%  
100 3% 8%  
101 2% 5%  
102 0.6% 4%  
103 1.2% 3%  
104 1.3% 2%  
105 0.2% 0.4%  
106 0.1% 0.2%  
107 0.1% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.3% 99.8%  
78 2% 99.5%  
79 1.2% 98%  
80 3% 97%  
81 3% 94%  
82 4% 90%  
83 4% 87%  
84 8% 83%  
85 15% 75% Majority
86 12% 61%  
87 7% 48% Median
88 6% 42%  
89 10% 36%  
90 6% 26%  
91 5% 20%  
92 6% 15%  
93 4% 9%  
94 2% 5%  
95 2% 3%  
96 0.6% 2%  
97 0.5% 0.9%  
98 0.2% 0.5%  
99 0.1% 0.3%  
100 0.1% 0.2%  
101 0.1% 0.2%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0.2% 99.9%  
77 0.2% 99.8%  
78 0.5% 99.6%  
79 0.6% 99.1% Last Result
80 1.2% 98%  
81 2% 97%  
82 3% 96%  
83 4% 93%  
84 8% 89%  
85 8% 81% Majority
86 5% 73%  
87 17% 67% Median
88 12% 51%  
89 15% 39%  
90 10% 24%  
91 4% 15%  
92 4% 11%  
93 2% 7%  
94 2% 5%  
95 1.1% 2%  
96 0.7% 1.2%  
97 0.2% 0.5%  
98 0.1% 0.3%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.1% 99.8%  
74 0.3% 99.7%  
75 2% 99.3%  
76 0.5% 97%  
77 2% 97% Last Result
78 1.3% 94%  
79 3% 93%  
80 3% 90%  
81 4% 87%  
82 6% 83%  
83 8% 77%  
84 9% 69%  
85 14% 60% Majority
86 13% 46% Median
87 8% 33%  
88 10% 25%  
89 8% 16%  
90 3% 8%  
91 2% 5%  
92 1.1% 3%  
93 1.3% 2%  
94 0.4% 0.7%  
95 0.2% 0.3%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.2% 99.9%  
68 0.4% 99.7%  
69 0.6% 99.3%  
70 1.2% 98.7%  
71 1.1% 98%  
72 3% 96%  
73 5% 94%  
74 3% 89%  
75 4% 86%  
76 9% 82% Last Result
77 17% 73%  
78 12% 56% Median
79 18% 44%  
80 12% 26%  
81 5% 14%  
82 3% 9%  
83 3% 6%  
84 1.0% 3%  
85 1.0% 2% Majority
86 0.6% 1.2%  
87 0.4% 0.6%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.2% 99.9%  
67 0.2% 99.7%  
68 0.7% 99.5% Last Result
69 1.1% 98.8%  
70 1.2% 98%  
71 2% 96%  
72 5% 94%  
73 4% 89%  
74 6% 86%  
75 9% 80%  
76 14% 71%  
77 9% 57% Median
78 16% 48%  
79 15% 32%  
80 7% 17%  
81 4% 10%  
82 3% 6%  
83 0.9% 3%  
84 1.0% 2%  
85 0.5% 1.1% Majority
86 0.4% 0.6%  
87 0.2% 0.2%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.2% 99.8%  
57 0.4% 99.6%  
58 0.7% 99.2%  
59 1.3% 98%  
60 1.3% 97%  
61 3% 96%  
62 4% 93%  
63 11% 89%  
64 6% 78%  
65 19% 71%  
66 9% 52%  
67 10% 43% Median
68 7% 33%  
69 7% 25%  
70 5% 18%  
71 3% 13%  
72 4% 10%  
73 3% 6%  
74 2% 4%  
75 0.9% 2%  
76 0.4% 1.0%  
77 0.2% 0.6%  
78 0.2% 0.4%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.4% 99.8%  
51 0.3% 99.4%  
52 1.0% 99.1%  
53 1.4% 98%  
54 2% 97%  
55 9% 94%  
56 7% 85%  
57 7% 78%  
58 10% 71%  
59 7% 61% Median
60 10% 54% Last Result
61 11% 44%  
62 8% 33%  
63 7% 25%  
64 6% 18%  
65 5% 12%  
66 3% 7%  
67 2% 4%  
68 0.6% 2%  
69 0.5% 1.0%  
70 0.3% 0.5%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 99.9%  
50 0.3% 99.9%  
51 0.4% 99.6%  
52 0.8% 99.2%  
53 2% 98%  
54 4% 97%  
55 5% 93%  
56 13% 88%  
57 9% 75%  
58 11% 66%  
59 11% 55% Median
60 10% 44%  
61 9% 34%  
62 7% 26%  
63 7% 19%  
64 5% 11%  
65 2% 6%  
66 1.4% 4%  
67 1.4% 3%  
68 0.6% 1.3%  
69 0.2% 0.7%  
70 0.2% 0.5%  
71 0.1% 0.3%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.3% 99.9%  
50 0.4% 99.6%  
51 0.5% 99.2%  
52 1.4% 98.8%  
53 3% 97%  
54 6% 94%  
55 10% 89%  
56 9% 79%  
57 14% 70%  
58 13% 56% Median
59 8% 43%  
60 10% 35%  
61 7% 25%  
62 8% 18%  
63 3% 10%  
64 3% 7%  
65 2% 4%  
66 1.1% 3%  
67 0.8% 1.5%  
68 0.2% 0.6%  
69 0.1% 0.4%  
70 0.2% 0.3%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 0.3% 99.7%  
50 0.6% 99.4%  
51 1.3% 98.7%  
52 4% 97%  
53 4% 94%  
54 10% 89%  
55 20% 79%  
56 7% 59%  
57 10% 52% Median
58 7% 42%  
59 9% 36%  
60 10% 27%  
61 6% 17%  
62 3% 11%  
63 4% 8%  
64 2% 4%  
65 1.2% 2%  
66 0.5% 1.2%  
67 0.3% 0.7%  
68 0.2% 0.4%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.7% 99.9%  
31 0.1% 99.2%  
32 0.5% 99.1%  
33 2% 98.6%  
34 3% 97%  
35 6% 94%  
36 9% 89%  
37 17% 79%  
38 13% 63% Median
39 15% 49%  
40 12% 34%  
41 9% 22%  
42 5% 12%  
43 2% 7%  
44 3% 5%  
45 1.0% 2%  
46 0.5% 1.1%  
47 0.2% 0.6%  
48 0.2% 0.4%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.1% 99.9%  
21 0.1% 99.8%  
22 0.7% 99.7%  
23 2% 99.0%  
24 2% 97%  
25 4% 95%  
26 9% 91%  
27 7% 82%  
28 12% 74%  
29 13% 63%  
30 8% 50% Median
31 13% 41%  
32 9% 28%  
33 4% 19%  
34 6% 15%  
35 5% 9% Last Result
36 2% 4%  
37 0.9% 2%  
38 0.5% 0.8%  
39 0.2% 0.3%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations