Opinion Poll by Sentio, 11–17 June 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 25.2% 23.5–27.0% 23.0–27.5% 22.6–28.0% 21.8–28.9%
Høyre 25.0% 22.7% 21.1–24.5% 20.6–25.0% 20.2–25.4% 19.4–26.3%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 15.2% 13.8–16.8% 13.4–17.2% 13.1–17.6% 12.5–18.3%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 10.5% 9.3–11.8% 9.0–12.2% 8.7–12.6% 8.2–13.2%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 6.8% 5.9–7.9% 5.6–8.3% 5.4–8.5% 5.0–9.1%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 5.8% 5.0–6.9% 4.7–7.2% 4.5–7.4% 4.1–8.0%
Rødt 2.4% 4.5% 3.8–5.5% 3.6–5.7% 3.4–6.0% 3.0–6.5%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 2.7% 2.1–3.5% 2.0–3.7% 1.9–3.9% 1.6–4.3%
Venstre 4.4% 2.5% 2.0–3.3% 1.8–3.5% 1.7–3.7% 1.5–4.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 46 42–50 41–51 41–52 40–54
Høyre 45 41 37–44 36–45 36–46 34–48
Senterpartiet 19 29 25–33 24–34 24–34 21–35
Fremskrittspartiet 27 18 15–21 15–21 15–22 13–24
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 12 10–14 9–14 9–15 8–16
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 10 8–12 8–13 7–13 7–14
Rødt 1 7 2–9 2–10 2–10 2–11
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 1 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–7
Venstre 8 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 0–6

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.3% 99.9%  
40 0.8% 99.6%  
41 5% 98.9%  
42 6% 94%  
43 5% 88%  
44 17% 82%  
45 11% 65%  
46 16% 54% Median
47 8% 38%  
48 11% 30%  
49 8% 19% Last Result
50 5% 11%  
51 3% 6%  
52 1.1% 3%  
53 1.0% 2%  
54 0.4% 0.8%  
55 0.4% 0.5%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.5% 99.9%  
35 1.4% 99.4%  
36 4% 98%  
37 8% 94%  
38 13% 86%  
39 8% 73%  
40 14% 64%  
41 25% 51% Median
42 9% 26%  
43 7% 17%  
44 4% 10%  
45 3% 6% Last Result
46 2% 3%  
47 0.5% 1.3%  
48 0.5% 0.8%  
49 0.2% 0.3%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100% Last Result
20 0.3% 99.9%  
21 0.6% 99.6%  
22 0.7% 99.0%  
23 0.8% 98%  
24 6% 98%  
25 5% 91%  
26 9% 87%  
27 15% 78%  
28 10% 63%  
29 12% 53% Median
30 6% 41%  
31 12% 35%  
32 10% 23%  
33 8% 13%  
34 4% 5%  
35 1.3% 1.4%  
36 0.1% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.7% 99.8%  
14 1.4% 99.2%  
15 9% 98%  
16 14% 89%  
17 22% 75%  
18 15% 53% Median
19 14% 38%  
20 11% 24%  
21 9% 13%  
22 3% 5%  
23 1.1% 2%  
24 0.7% 0.8%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 1.1% 99.9%  
9 6% 98.8%  
10 23% 92%  
11 17% 70% Last Result
12 23% 52% Median
13 18% 30%  
14 7% 12%  
15 3% 5%  
16 1.0% 1.3%  
17 0.2% 0.3%  
18 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0.1% 100%  
3 0.2% 99.9%  
4 0.1% 99.7%  
5 0% 99.6%  
6 0% 99.6%  
7 2% 99.6%  
8 16% 97%  
9 27% 81%  
10 33% 55% Median
11 10% 22%  
12 7% 12%  
13 4% 5%  
14 0.7% 0.8%  
15 0.1% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100% Last Result
2 21% 99.9%  
3 0% 79%  
4 0% 79%  
5 0% 79%  
6 2% 79%  
7 35% 77% Median
8 19% 42%  
9 17% 23%  
10 4% 6%  
11 1.2% 1.5%  
12 0.2% 0.3%  
13 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 13% 100%  
1 60% 87% Median
2 8% 27%  
3 17% 19%  
4 0% 2%  
5 0% 2%  
6 0.6% 2%  
7 0.8% 1.1%  
8 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 31% 98%  
2 66% 67% Median
3 0.5% 1.0%  
4 0% 0.5%  
5 0% 0.5%  
6 0.1% 0.5%  
7 0.3% 0.4%  
8 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 103 100% 97–109 96–109 95–110 93–113
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 97 99.9% 93–103 91–103 91–104 87–106
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 96 99.9% 92–101 90–102 89–103 86–105
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 93 98.7% 87–99 86–99 85–100 83–102
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 90 93% 86–95 84–95 83–97 81–100
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 86 70% 81–90 79–92 79–92 76–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 87 69% 82–91 80–92 79–92 77–95
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 76 0.3% 72–80 69–81 69–82 67–84
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 62 74 0.4% 70–78 69–80 67–82 65–84
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 75 0% 71–79 68–79 68–80 65–82
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 71 0.1% 66–76 66–77 64–79 63–82
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 61 0% 58–66 56–67 55–68 54–71
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 60 0% 56–64 55–65 54–67 53–69
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 58 0% 55–62 53–64 52–65 51–68
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 57 0% 53–61 53–63 52–64 50–66
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 43 0% 40–47 39–48 38–49 37–52
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 32 0% 28–36 27–37 26–38 24–39

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0.1% 100%  
91 0.1% 99.9%  
92 0.2% 99.9%  
93 0.3% 99.6%  
94 0.5% 99.3%  
95 3% 98.9%  
96 3% 96%  
97 4% 93%  
98 7% 89%  
99 2% 82%  
100 10% 80%  
101 8% 71%  
102 7% 62%  
103 11% 55%  
104 12% 44% Median
105 8% 32%  
106 6% 24%  
107 5% 17%  
108 2% 12%  
109 7% 11%  
110 2% 4%  
111 1.3% 2%  
112 0.4% 0.9%  
113 0.4% 0.5%  
114 0.1% 0.1%  
115 0% 0.1%  
116 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0.1% 100%  
85 0% 99.9% Majority
86 0.2% 99.9%  
87 0.2% 99.7%  
88 0.2% 99.5% Last Result
89 0.6% 99.3%  
90 1.1% 98.7%  
91 5% 98%  
92 2% 93%  
93 4% 91%  
94 4% 87%  
95 7% 83%  
96 8% 76%  
97 25% 68%  
98 8% 43% Median
99 7% 34%  
100 8% 27%  
101 5% 19%  
102 3% 14%  
103 6% 11%  
104 3% 5%  
105 1.1% 2%  
106 0.5% 1.0%  
107 0.2% 0.5%  
108 0.1% 0.2%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0.1% 100%  
84 0% 99.9%  
85 0.2% 99.9% Majority
86 0.2% 99.6%  
87 0.5% 99.4%  
88 0.9% 98.9%  
89 1.5% 98%  
90 4% 97%  
91 2% 92%  
92 4% 90%  
93 9% 86%  
94 11% 77%  
95 6% 66%  
96 18% 60%  
97 9% 42% Median
98 9% 33%  
99 6% 24%  
100 5% 18%  
101 3% 13%  
102 6% 10%  
103 2% 4%  
104 0.8% 1.5%  
105 0.3% 0.7%  
106 0.2% 0.4%  
107 0.1% 0.2%  
108 0.1% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 99.9%  
82 0.2% 99.9%  
83 0.3% 99.6%  
84 0.7% 99.4%  
85 2% 98.7% Majority
86 2% 97%  
87 5% 94%  
88 4% 90%  
89 5% 86%  
90 5% 81%  
91 13% 76%  
92 6% 63%  
93 8% 57%  
94 8% 49% Median
95 17% 41%  
96 8% 25%  
97 3% 17%  
98 3% 14%  
99 7% 10%  
100 1.5% 3%  
101 0.9% 2%  
102 0.4% 0.7%  
103 0.2% 0.3%  
104 0.1% 0.1%  
105 0% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.1% 100%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.2% 99.8%  
81 0.3% 99.6%  
82 1.1% 99.3%  
83 1.2% 98%  
84 4% 97%  
85 2% 93% Majority
86 6% 90%  
87 7% 85%  
88 3% 78%  
89 7% 75%  
90 25% 68%  
91 12% 43% Median
92 7% 31%  
93 10% 24%  
94 2% 14%  
95 7% 12%  
96 2% 5%  
97 1.1% 3%  
98 0.7% 2%  
99 0.5% 1.4%  
100 0.4% 0.9%  
101 0.3% 0.5%  
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0.1% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.3% 99.8%  
77 0.4% 99.5% Last Result
78 1.2% 99.0%  
79 4% 98%  
80 2% 94%  
81 2% 92%  
82 3% 90%  
83 9% 87%  
84 8% 78%  
85 14% 70% Majority
86 11% 56% Median
87 16% 45%  
88 9% 30%  
89 6% 20%  
90 6% 14%  
91 3% 8%  
92 3% 5%  
93 0.6% 2%  
94 0.8% 1.2%  
95 0.3% 0.5%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 99.9%  
75 0% 99.9%  
76 0.3% 99.9%  
77 0.6% 99.6%  
78 0.3% 99.0%  
79 1.3% 98.6% Last Result
80 4% 97%  
81 2% 94%  
82 2% 91%  
83 7% 89%  
84 13% 82%  
85 8% 69% Majority
86 8% 61%  
87 11% 53% Median
88 17% 41%  
89 7% 25%  
90 7% 18%  
91 3% 11%  
92 6% 8%  
93 0.7% 2%  
94 0.5% 1.0%  
95 0.4% 0.6%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 99.9%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.7% 99.8%  
68 1.0% 99.1%  
69 4% 98%  
70 2% 95%  
71 2% 93%  
72 5% 91%  
73 5% 87%  
74 11% 82%  
75 9% 71%  
76 13% 62% Last Result, Median
77 14% 49%  
78 3% 34%  
79 17% 31%  
80 8% 14%  
81 3% 7%  
82 2% 4%  
83 0.5% 1.4%  
84 0.6% 0.9%  
85 0.1% 0.3% Majority
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100% Last Result
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.4% 99.8%  
66 1.1% 99.4%  
67 1.3% 98%  
68 2% 97%  
69 4% 95%  
70 7% 91%  
71 16% 85%  
72 14% 69%  
73 5% 55%  
74 8% 51%  
75 6% 42% Median
76 13% 36%  
77 3% 24%  
78 11% 21%  
79 3% 9%  
80 3% 6%  
81 1.1% 4%  
82 1.0% 3%  
83 0.7% 2%  
84 0.4% 0.9%  
85 0.2% 0.4% Majority
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.5% 99.8%  
66 0.6% 99.4%  
67 1.0% 98.8%  
68 4% 98% Last Result
69 2% 94%  
70 2% 92%  
71 7% 90%  
72 5% 83%  
73 14% 78%  
74 10% 64%  
75 10% 54% Median
76 9% 44%  
77 6% 35%  
78 18% 28%  
79 6% 11%  
80 3% 5%  
81 0.9% 2%  
82 0.7% 1.1%  
83 0.2% 0.4%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.3% 99.9%  
63 0.7% 99.6%  
64 2% 98.8%  
65 2% 97%  
66 10% 95%  
67 7% 85%  
68 6% 78%  
69 6% 72%  
70 10% 66%  
71 14% 56%  
72 8% 42% Median
73 7% 34%  
74 6% 28%  
75 9% 22%  
76 5% 13%  
77 4% 8%  
78 2% 5%  
79 1.3% 3%  
80 0.4% 1.4%  
81 0.5% 1.0%  
82 0.3% 0.5%  
83 0.1% 0.3%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0.1% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 1.0% 99.7%  
55 3% 98.7%  
56 2% 96%  
57 4% 94%  
58 17% 90%  
59 5% 73%  
60 11% 68%  
61 9% 57%  
62 11% 48% Median
63 11% 38%  
64 7% 27%  
65 10% 20%  
66 4% 10%  
67 3% 6%  
68 1.4% 4%  
69 1.0% 2%  
70 0.5% 1.1%  
71 0.3% 0.7%  
72 0.2% 0.4%  
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.3% 99.8%  
53 1.1% 99.5%  
54 3% 98%  
55 3% 96%  
56 4% 93%  
57 18% 89%  
58 9% 71%  
59 12% 62%  
60 7% 50%  
61 7% 43% Median
62 11% 35%  
63 8% 24%  
64 9% 16%  
65 3% 7%  
66 2% 4%  
67 1.3% 3%  
68 0.9% 1.5%  
69 0.3% 0.6%  
70 0.1% 0.4%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.2% 99.9%  
51 0.8% 99.7%  
52 2% 98.8%  
53 3% 96%  
54 3% 94%  
55 14% 91%  
56 9% 76%  
57 15% 68%  
58 7% 53%  
59 9% 46% Median
60 10% 37%  
61 7% 27%  
62 11% 20%  
63 4% 9%  
64 1.4% 5%  
65 2% 4%  
66 0.7% 2%  
67 0.4% 1.0%  
68 0.4% 0.6%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.2% 100%  
50 0.5% 99.8%  
51 0.8% 99.3%  
52 3% 98%  
53 7% 96%  
54 4% 88%  
55 10% 85%  
56 18% 75%  
57 10% 57%  
58 7% 48% Median
59 13% 40%  
60 10% 27% Last Result
61 7% 17%  
62 3% 10%  
63 3% 7%  
64 3% 4%  
65 0.7% 1.3%  
66 0.3% 0.6%  
67 0.2% 0.3%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.2% 100%  
37 0.8% 99.7%  
38 2% 98.9%  
39 3% 97%  
40 7% 94%  
41 12% 88%  
42 12% 75%  
43 17% 63%  
44 15% 46% Median
45 12% 31%  
46 6% 19%  
47 5% 13%  
48 4% 7%  
49 2% 3%  
50 0.6% 2%  
51 0.3% 1.0%  
52 0.4% 0.6%  
53 0.2% 0.3%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.2% 99.9%  
24 0.6% 99.7%  
25 1.1% 99.0%  
26 2% 98%  
27 2% 95%  
28 6% 93%  
29 12% 88%  
30 12% 76%  
31 9% 63%  
32 8% 55% Median
33 12% 47%  
34 13% 35%  
35 11% 21% Last Result
36 4% 11%  
37 3% 7%  
38 3% 4%  
39 0.9% 1.3%  
40 0.1% 0.4%  
41 0.1% 0.3%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations