Opinion Poll by Kantar TNS, 5–9 August 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 23.5% 21.6–25.6% 21.1–26.2% 20.6–26.7% 19.7–27.7%
Høyre 25.0% 22.8% 21.0–24.9% 20.4–25.5% 20.0–26.0% 19.1–27.0%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 15.3% 13.7–17.1% 13.3–17.6% 12.9–18.1% 12.2–19.0%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 9.1% 7.9–10.6% 7.6–11.1% 7.3–11.4% 6.7–12.2%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 8.3% 7.2–9.8% 6.8–10.2% 6.6–10.5% 6.0–11.3%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 6.5% 5.4–7.8% 5.1–8.1% 4.9–8.5% 4.5–9.1%
Rødt 2.4% 5.2% 4.3–6.4% 4.1–6.8% 3.9–7.1% 3.5–7.7%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.8% 3.0–4.8% 2.8–5.1% 2.6–5.4% 2.3–5.9%
Venstre 4.4% 2.0% 1.5–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.2–3.3% 1.0–3.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 44 40–49 38–51 37–51 35–53
Høyre 45 40 36–46 34–47 34–49 33–49
Senterpartiet 19 26 23–32 21–34 21–36 20–36
Fremskrittspartiet 27 16 13–19 12–20 11–21 10–22
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 15 12–17 11–18 11–19 10–20
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 11 9–13 9–14 8–15 8–16
Rødt 1 9 7–11 2–12 2–13 2–14
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 2–8 1–9 1–9 0–10
Venstre 8 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100%  
34 0.2% 99.9%  
35 0.7% 99.7%  
36 0.5% 99.0%  
37 1.0% 98.5%  
38 4% 97%  
39 2% 93%  
40 18% 91%  
41 6% 73%  
42 5% 67%  
43 11% 62%  
44 17% 51% Median
45 7% 34%  
46 8% 26%  
47 5% 19%  
48 3% 13%  
49 2% 11% Last Result
50 2% 9%  
51 6% 7%  
52 0.2% 0.9%  
53 0.4% 0.7%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100%  
32 0.2% 99.9%  
33 1.4% 99.7%  
34 3% 98%  
35 5% 95%  
36 11% 90%  
37 12% 79%  
38 4% 67%  
39 6% 63%  
40 24% 58% Median
41 5% 34%  
42 7% 29%  
43 3% 22%  
44 3% 19%  
45 5% 16% Last Result
46 2% 11%  
47 5% 9%  
48 0.3% 4%  
49 4% 4%  
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.4% 100% Last Result
20 0.7% 99.6%  
21 5% 98.9%  
22 2% 94%  
23 8% 91%  
24 7% 84%  
25 7% 77%  
26 22% 70% Median
27 6% 48%  
28 12% 42%  
29 6% 30%  
30 4% 24%  
31 6% 20%  
32 5% 14%  
33 1.5% 9%  
34 4% 8%  
35 2% 4%  
36 2% 3%  
37 0.2% 0.2%  
38 0% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 1.4% 99.9%  
11 2% 98%  
12 5% 97%  
13 10% 92%  
14 9% 82%  
15 14% 73%  
16 30% 59% Median
17 11% 29%  
18 6% 18%  
19 6% 12%  
20 1.3% 6%  
21 3% 5%  
22 1.2% 2%  
23 0.4% 0.5%  
24 0% 0.1%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.2% 100%  
10 2% 99.8%  
11 5% 98% Last Result
12 6% 93%  
13 19% 88%  
14 17% 69%  
15 21% 52% Median
16 13% 31%  
17 11% 18%  
18 3% 7%  
19 3% 4%  
20 0.4% 0.7%  
21 0.3% 0.3%  
22 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0.1% 100%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0.4% 99.9%  
8 3% 99.5%  
9 13% 96%  
10 19% 84%  
11 16% 65% Median
12 29% 49%  
13 11% 20%  
14 4% 9%  
15 3% 5%  
16 2% 2%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 6% 100%  
3 0% 94%  
4 0% 94%  
5 0% 94%  
6 0.8% 94%  
7 11% 93%  
8 20% 82%  
9 18% 62% Median
10 12% 44%  
11 26% 32%  
12 4% 7%  
13 2% 3%  
14 0.6% 0.6%  
15 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.4% 100%  
1 8% 98.6%  
2 15% 90%  
3 26% 75% Median
4 0% 49%  
5 0% 49%  
6 4% 49%  
7 33% 45%  
8 7% 12% Last Result
9 3% 5%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.3% 0.4%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 34% 100%  
1 24% 66% Median
2 42% 42%  
3 0.1% 0.4%  
4 0% 0.3%  
5 0% 0.3%  
6 0.2% 0.3%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 104 100% 99–112 98–114 96–115 92–116
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 101 100% 95–108 94–110 93–110 90–113
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 96 99.5% 91–103 90–105 88–105 85–107
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 93 98% 89–102 87–102 85–103 82–104
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 88 82% 83–94 83–98 82–101 81–102
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 86 69% 80–93 79–94 78–96 76–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 85 57% 80–92 79–93 77–93 74–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 75 1.5% 70–81 68–82 67–84 65–87
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 73 0.4% 67–79 66–81 65–82 63–84
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 71 0% 66–77 64–78 63–78 61–80
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 62 0% 55–68 54–70 53–70 51–72
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 58 0% 53–64 52–67 51–67 49–67
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 57 0% 50–63 50–65 48–66 48–68
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 56 0% 50–62 49–63 47–64 47–68
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 45 0% 41–51 40–53 38–56 37–57
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 34 0% 27–38 26–41 26–41 25–45

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0.2% 100%  
92 0.5% 99.7%  
93 0.1% 99.3%  
94 0.9% 99.2%  
95 0.5% 98%  
96 0.4% 98%  
97 1.0% 97%  
98 1.5% 96%  
99 5% 95%  
100 3% 90%  
101 3% 86%  
102 5% 83%  
103 11% 78%  
104 18% 67%  
105 8% 49% Median
106 4% 41%  
107 6% 38%  
108 3% 31%  
109 3% 28%  
110 4% 25%  
111 9% 21%  
112 4% 12%  
113 1.0% 8%  
114 3% 7%  
115 2% 4%  
116 2% 2%  
117 0.1% 0.1%  
118 0% 0.1%  
119 0% 0.1%  
120 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0.1% 100%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.1% 99.8% Last Result
89 0.1% 99.7%  
90 0.2% 99.6%  
91 1.5% 99.3%  
92 0.2% 98%  
93 2% 98%  
94 4% 95%  
95 3% 91%  
96 1.4% 88%  
97 7% 87%  
98 6% 80%  
99 5% 74% Median
100 16% 69%  
101 7% 53%  
102 10% 46%  
103 3% 36%  
104 10% 33%  
105 2% 23%  
106 4% 21%  
107 6% 17%  
108 4% 12%  
109 2% 8%  
110 4% 6%  
111 0.7% 2%  
112 0.4% 1.0%  
113 0.5% 0.6%  
114 0% 0.1%  
115 0.1% 0.1%  
116 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0.3% 100%  
84 0.1% 99.6%  
85 0.3% 99.5% Majority
86 1.3% 99.2%  
87 0.2% 98%  
88 2% 98%  
89 0.3% 96%  
90 2% 95%  
91 6% 93%  
92 2% 87%  
93 15% 85%  
94 8% 69%  
95 10% 62%  
96 5% 51% Median
97 7% 47%  
98 4% 40%  
99 4% 36%  
100 8% 32%  
101 6% 24%  
102 7% 18%  
103 2% 11%  
104 2% 9%  
105 4% 6%  
106 1.1% 2%  
107 1.1% 1.2%  
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0.1% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.3% 100% Last Result
81 0.1% 99.7%  
82 0.4% 99.6%  
83 0.4% 99.2%  
84 0.5% 98.8%  
85 1.3% 98% Majority
86 0.7% 97%  
87 3% 96%  
88 3% 93%  
89 2% 90%  
90 8% 88%  
91 3% 80%  
92 16% 77%  
93 16% 61%  
94 3% 45% Median
95 4% 42%  
96 8% 38%  
97 4% 30%  
98 6% 26%  
99 3% 20%  
100 3% 17%  
101 3% 14%  
102 8% 11%  
103 2% 3%  
104 0.5% 0.7%  
105 0.1% 0.2%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0% 99.8%  
80 0.2% 99.8%  
81 2% 99.6%  
82 3% 98%  
83 6% 95%  
84 7% 89%  
85 3% 82% Majority
86 4% 79% Median
87 20% 75%  
88 8% 55%  
89 8% 47%  
90 4% 40%  
91 19% 36%  
92 4% 17%  
93 2% 13%  
94 2% 11%  
95 1.3% 9%  
96 0.7% 8%  
97 2% 7%  
98 1.0% 5%  
99 1.2% 5%  
100 0.8% 3%  
101 0.8% 3%  
102 1.5% 2%  
103 0.2% 0.2%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.2% 99.8%  
76 0.2% 99.6%  
77 2% 99.4% Last Result
78 1.2% 98%  
79 2% 96%  
80 6% 94%  
81 3% 88%  
82 2% 85%  
83 3% 83%  
84 11% 80% Median
85 17% 69% Majority
86 4% 53%  
87 4% 49%  
88 10% 45%  
89 9% 35%  
90 4% 26%  
91 3% 22%  
92 5% 19%  
93 5% 14%  
94 4% 9%  
95 2% 4%  
96 2% 3%  
97 0.4% 1.0%  
98 0.5% 0.7%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0.4% 99.9%  
74 0.4% 99.6%  
75 0.2% 99.2%  
76 0.6% 99.0%  
77 2% 98%  
78 1.0% 97%  
79 2% 96% Last Result
80 7% 93%  
81 13% 87%  
82 7% 74%  
83 6% 67%  
84 4% 61%  
85 11% 57% Median, Majority
86 8% 46%  
87 5% 38%  
88 7% 32%  
89 5% 25%  
90 3% 20%  
91 6% 18%  
92 3% 12%  
93 7% 9%  
94 2% 2%  
95 0.1% 0.4%  
96 0.2% 0.3%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.6% 99.7%  
66 2% 99.1%  
67 1.4% 98%  
68 2% 96%  
69 3% 94%  
70 5% 92%  
71 5% 87%  
72 8% 82%  
73 16% 74% Median
74 4% 59%  
75 9% 55%  
76 4% 46% Last Result
77 4% 41%  
78 4% 37%  
79 16% 33%  
80 2% 18%  
81 7% 15%  
82 4% 9%  
83 1.3% 4%  
84 2% 3%  
85 0.6% 1.5% Majority
86 0.2% 0.8%  
87 0.3% 0.6%  
88 0.2% 0.3%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.3% 99.8%  
63 0.3% 99.5%  
64 0.5% 99.3%  
65 3% 98.7%  
66 3% 96%  
67 10% 93%  
68 5% 82%  
69 10% 77%  
70 3% 67%  
71 7% 64% Median
72 6% 57%  
73 5% 50%  
74 3% 45%  
75 3% 42%  
76 8% 39%  
77 16% 31%  
78 2% 15%  
79 6% 14%  
80 2% 8%  
81 3% 6%  
82 2% 4%  
83 0.4% 1.2%  
84 0.4% 0.8%  
85 0.3% 0.4% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.3% 99.9%  
61 0.3% 99.7%  
62 1.4% 99.4%  
63 2% 98%  
64 0.8% 96%  
65 2% 95%  
66 18% 92%  
67 4% 74%  
68 4% 71% Last Result
69 10% 66%  
70 5% 56% Median
71 4% 51%  
72 12% 47%  
73 5% 35%  
74 8% 30%  
75 5% 22%  
76 5% 17%  
77 6% 11%  
78 4% 5%  
79 0.5% 2%  
80 0.6% 1.0%  
81 0.2% 0.4%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.3% 99.8%  
52 0.6% 99.5%  
53 2% 98.9%  
54 3% 97%  
55 3% 93%  
56 2% 90%  
57 8% 88%  
58 10% 80%  
59 12% 71%  
60 5% 59% Median
61 4% 54%  
62 5% 50%  
63 5% 45%  
64 7% 40%  
65 16% 34%  
66 3% 18%  
67 3% 14%  
68 3% 12%  
69 2% 9%  
70 4% 6%  
71 0.6% 2%  
72 1.0% 1.1%  
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.2% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.8%  
49 0.4% 99.7%  
50 1.2% 99.3%  
51 2% 98%  
52 4% 96%  
53 3% 93%  
54 2% 90%  
55 18% 87%  
56 6% 69%  
57 11% 64%  
58 6% 52%  
59 17% 46% Median
60 7% 29% Last Result
61 6% 22%  
62 3% 16%  
63 2% 13%  
64 2% 12%  
65 2% 10%  
66 2% 7%  
67 6% 6%  
68 0.1% 0.3%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.2% 99.8%  
48 2% 99.6%  
49 0.8% 97%  
50 7% 97%  
51 2% 90%  
52 12% 88%  
53 3% 76%  
54 4% 73%  
55 5% 69%  
56 10% 64%  
57 5% 54% Median
58 20% 49%  
59 2% 29%  
60 4% 27%  
61 7% 23%  
62 2% 16%  
63 7% 14%  
64 3% 8%  
65 2% 5%  
66 1.1% 3%  
67 1.1% 2%  
68 0.1% 0.6%  
69 0.5% 0.5%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 2% 99.7%  
48 1.0% 97%  
49 2% 96%  
50 8% 95%  
51 0.9% 86%  
52 11% 85%  
53 5% 74%  
54 8% 70%  
55 9% 61%  
56 21% 52% Median
57 2% 31%  
58 6% 30%  
59 1.3% 24%  
60 2% 23%  
61 7% 21%  
62 7% 14%  
63 3% 6%  
64 0.7% 3%  
65 1.1% 2%  
66 0.7% 1.3%  
67 0.1% 0.6%  
68 0.5% 0.5%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.1% 99.9%  
36 0.2% 99.9%  
37 0.8% 99.7%  
38 2% 98.9%  
39 2% 97%  
40 5% 95%  
41 5% 91%  
42 7% 86%  
43 17% 79%  
44 6% 62% Median
45 8% 56%  
46 4% 48%  
47 5% 44%  
48 5% 39%  
49 16% 34%  
50 7% 19%  
51 2% 11%  
52 3% 9%  
53 2% 6%  
54 0.8% 4%  
55 0.1% 3%  
56 1.1% 3%  
57 2% 2%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100%  
23 0.2% 99.9%  
24 0.1% 99.7%  
25 0.5% 99.7%  
26 6% 99.2%  
27 4% 94%  
28 6% 89%  
29 14% 84%  
30 2% 70% Median
31 5% 68%  
32 5% 63%  
33 7% 58%  
34 2% 51%  
35 24% 49% Last Result
36 7% 25%  
37 6% 17%  
38 4% 12%  
39 0.9% 8%  
40 2% 7%  
41 3% 5%  
42 0.8% 2%  
43 0.3% 1.3%  
44 0.3% 1.0%  
45 0.5% 0.8%  
46 0.1% 0.2%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations