Opinion Poll by Norstat, 20–26 August 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 22.8% 21.1–24.6% 20.6–25.1% 20.2–25.6% 19.4–26.5%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 22.2% 20.5–24.0% 20.0–24.5% 19.6–24.9% 18.9–25.8%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 16.0% 14.6–17.6% 14.2–18.1% 13.8–18.5% 13.1–19.3%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 11.7% 10.4–13.1% 10.1–13.5% 9.8–13.9% 9.2–14.6%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 6.3% 5.3–7.4% 5.1–7.7% 4.9–8.0% 4.5–8.6%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 5.7% 4.9–6.8% 4.6–7.1% 4.4–7.4% 4.0–8.0%
Rødt 2.4% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 3.9–6.3% 3.8–6.6% 3.4–7.1%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.3% 3.6–5.3% 3.4–5.6% 3.2–5.9% 2.9–6.4%
Venstre 4.4% 3.1% 2.5–3.9% 2.3–4.2% 2.1–4.4% 1.9–4.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 40 37–43 36–43 36–44 34–48
Arbeiderpartiet 49 41 37–44 37–44 37–45 35–47
Senterpartiet 19 30 26–33 25–33 25–34 22–37
Fremskrittspartiet 27 20 17–24 17–24 17–24 15–26
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 11 9–12 8–13 8–14 8–15
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 10 8–12 8–13 7–13 7–13
Rødt 1 9 7–10 2–10 2–11 2–12
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 8 3–9 2–10 1–10 1–11
Venstre 8 2 2 2–6 1–7 1–8

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0% 100%  
33 0.3% 99.9%  
34 0.4% 99.7%  
35 1.5% 99.3%  
36 4% 98%  
37 17% 94%  
38 5% 77%  
39 14% 72%  
40 9% 58% Median
41 26% 49%  
42 12% 23%  
43 7% 11%  
44 2% 4%  
45 0.7% 2% Last Result
46 0.3% 1.3%  
47 0.3% 1.0%  
48 0.5% 0.7%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.1% 99.9%  
34 0.3% 99.8%  
35 0.9% 99.5%  
36 1.1% 98.6%  
37 19% 98%  
38 2% 79%  
39 16% 76%  
40 5% 60%  
41 17% 55% Median
42 11% 38%  
43 4% 27%  
44 19% 23%  
45 1.3% 4%  
46 1.0% 2%  
47 1.3% 1.4%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
50 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.4% 99.9%  
23 0.3% 99.5%  
24 0.4% 99.2%  
25 5% 98.8%  
26 14% 94%  
27 9% 80%  
28 8% 71%  
29 7% 63%  
30 17% 56% Median
31 16% 39%  
32 4% 24%  
33 15% 19%  
34 2% 4%  
35 0.8% 2%  
36 0.4% 0.9%  
37 0.5% 0.5%  
38 0% 0.1%  
39 0% 0.1%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.6% 99.9%  
16 0.6% 99.3%  
17 20% 98.7%  
18 10% 78%  
19 8% 69%  
20 12% 60% Median
21 16% 49%  
22 11% 33%  
23 8% 22%  
24 12% 14%  
25 0.9% 2%  
26 1.1% 1.2%  
27 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
28 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0% 100%  
7 0.4% 99.9%  
8 5% 99.5%  
9 12% 95%  
10 28% 82%  
11 28% 55% Last Result, Median
12 18% 27%  
13 4% 9%  
14 3% 4%  
15 1.0% 1.2%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0.1% 100%  
3 0.1% 99.9%  
4 0.2% 99.8%  
5 0% 99.6%  
6 0% 99.6%  
7 4% 99.6%  
8 8% 96%  
9 23% 87%  
10 25% 65% Median
11 24% 40%  
12 9% 16%  
13 7% 7%  
14 0.4% 0.5%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 5% 100%  
3 0% 95%  
4 0% 95%  
5 0% 95%  
6 0.4% 95%  
7 9% 94%  
8 25% 85%  
9 40% 60% Median
10 17% 20%  
11 2% 4%  
12 1.4% 1.5%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 4% 100%  
2 4% 96%  
3 11% 92%  
4 0% 80%  
5 0% 80%  
6 0.5% 80%  
7 16% 80%  
8 44% 64% Last Result, Median
9 15% 20%  
10 5% 6%  
11 0.5% 0.6%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 5% 99.8%  
2 88% 95% Median
3 1.1% 7%  
4 0% 6%  
5 0.1% 6%  
6 2% 6%  
7 3% 4%  
8 0.6% 0.7% Last Result
9 0.1% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 98 100% 95–103 93–105 92–106 90–107
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 100 100% 95–105 94–105 92–105 89–108
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 98 100% 93–104 92–104 90–104 88–105
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 91 96% 86–96 85–96 84–97 82–102
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 89 95% 85–95 84–95 83–96 80–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 87 74% 83–93 81–93 80–93 77–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 80 21% 76–86 75–87 75–87 73–92
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 79 5% 74–84 74–84 73–86 70–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 77 0.5% 72–83 71–83 70–84 66–85
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 70 0% 64–75 64–76 64–77 63–80
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 69 0% 64–74 64–74 63–76 60–78
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 63 0% 58–67 56–67 56–69 56–71
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 60 0% 54–65 54–65 54–66 54–69
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 52 0% 47–55 47–56 45–58 44–59
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 49 0% 45–53 44–53 43–54 40–57
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 38 0% 34–43 34–44 32–45 30–47

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0.1% 100%  
88 0.1% 99.9%  
89 0% 99.9%  
90 2% 99.8%  
91 0.2% 98%  
92 3% 98%  
93 0.5% 95%  
94 0.8% 95%  
95 10% 94%  
96 3% 84%  
97 2% 81%  
98 31% 80%  
99 11% 49%  
100 8% 37% Median
101 7% 29%  
102 11% 22%  
103 3% 10%  
104 2% 7%  
105 3% 5%  
106 1.2% 3%  
107 1.2% 2% Last Result
108 0.1% 0.3%  
109 0.1% 0.2%  
110 0% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0.2% 100%  
88 0.1% 99.8%  
89 0.4% 99.7%  
90 0.3% 99.3%  
91 1.1% 99.1%  
92 1.0% 98%  
93 0.7% 97%  
94 3% 96%  
95 7% 93%  
96 12% 86%  
97 13% 74%  
98 2% 61%  
99 6% 59%  
100 9% 53%  
101 19% 44% Median
102 3% 24%  
103 5% 21%  
104 3% 16%  
105 11% 13%  
106 1.4% 2%  
107 0.4% 0.9%  
108 0.1% 0.5%  
109 0.1% 0.5%  
110 0.4% 0.4%  
111 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0.1% 100% Majority
86 0.4% 99.9%  
87 0% 99.6%  
88 0.1% 99.5% Last Result
89 0.6% 99.4%  
90 2% 98.8%  
91 2% 97%  
92 5% 96%  
93 4% 91%  
94 5% 87%  
95 14% 83%  
96 2% 69%  
97 14% 66%  
98 10% 53%  
99 11% 43%  
100 2% 32% Median
101 11% 30%  
102 1.3% 19%  
103 7% 18%  
104 10% 12%  
105 0.7% 1.1%  
106 0.3% 0.5%  
107 0.1% 0.2%  
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0.1% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.1% 100% Last Result
81 0.2% 99.9%  
82 0.5% 99.7%  
83 1.2% 99.1%  
84 2% 98%  
85 4% 96% Majority
86 2% 92%  
87 10% 90%  
88 3% 79%  
89 15% 76%  
90 8% 61%  
91 6% 53%  
92 15% 47% Median
93 4% 32%  
94 8% 27%  
95 4% 20%  
96 12% 16%  
97 2% 4%  
98 0.8% 2%  
99 0.1% 1.3%  
100 0.1% 1.2%  
101 0.1% 1.1%  
102 1.0% 1.0%  
103 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.1% 99.8%  
80 0.3% 99.7% Last Result
81 0.3% 99.4%  
82 1.2% 99.1%  
83 1.5% 98%  
84 2% 96%  
85 14% 95% Majority
86 12% 81%  
87 6% 69%  
88 6% 62%  
89 7% 56%  
90 14% 49%  
91 4% 34% Median
92 10% 30%  
93 1.4% 20%  
94 3% 19%  
95 12% 16%  
96 2% 3%  
97 1.0% 2%  
98 0.1% 0.5%  
99 0.4% 0.4%  
100 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.2% 99.9%  
77 0.9% 99.7% Last Result
78 0.1% 98.9%  
79 0.8% 98.8%  
80 2% 98%  
81 4% 96%  
82 1.4% 92%  
83 15% 90%  
84 2% 76%  
85 5% 74% Majority
86 15% 68%  
87 10% 53%  
88 8% 43%  
89 4% 35% Median
90 4% 31%  
91 2% 27%  
92 10% 25%  
93 13% 15%  
94 1.0% 2%  
95 0.2% 1.1%  
96 0.8% 0.9%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.8%  
73 0.6% 99.8%  
74 0.9% 99.2%  
75 4% 98%  
76 11% 94%  
77 4% 83%  
78 11% 78%  
79 6% 67% Last Result
80 12% 61%  
81 3% 50%  
82 13% 46% Median
83 11% 34%  
84 3% 23%  
85 3% 21% Majority
86 12% 18%  
87 4% 6%  
88 0.7% 2%  
89 0.3% 1.4%  
90 0.1% 1.1%  
91 0.4% 1.0%  
92 0.6% 0.6%  
93 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.6% 99.9%  
71 0.2% 99.3%  
72 1.1% 99.1%  
73 2% 98%  
74 12% 96%  
75 4% 84%  
76 2% 80%  
77 10% 78%  
78 4% 68%  
79 15% 63%  
80 7% 49% Median
81 7% 42%  
82 5% 35%  
83 12% 30%  
84 14% 18%  
85 2% 5% Majority
86 1.2% 3%  
87 1.1% 2%  
88 0.2% 0.6%  
89 0.2% 0.4% Last Result
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.5% 100%  
67 0.3% 99.5%  
68 0.5% 99.2%  
69 0.6% 98.7%  
70 1.1% 98%  
71 4% 97%  
72 15% 93%  
73 3% 78%  
74 4% 75%  
75 16% 71%  
76 4% 54% Last Result
77 1.1% 51%  
78 14% 49%  
79 3% 36% Median
80 5% 33%  
81 4% 28%  
82 1.0% 24%  
83 18% 23%  
84 4% 5%  
85 0.2% 0.5% Majority
86 0.1% 0.3%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.3% 99.9%  
62 0.1% 99.6%  
63 0.7% 99.5%  
64 11% 98.8%  
65 3% 88%  
66 3% 85%  
67 13% 82%  
68 5% 69% Last Result
69 7% 64%  
70 14% 57%  
71 7% 43% Median
72 5% 36%  
73 4% 31%  
74 10% 27%  
75 9% 17%  
76 4% 8%  
77 3% 4%  
78 0.6% 1.4%  
79 0.2% 0.9%  
80 0.6% 0.6%  
81 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.4% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.6%  
61 0.2% 99.5%  
62 0.7% 99.3%  
63 1.4% 98.7%  
64 11% 97%  
65 3% 86%  
66 5% 83%  
67 3% 78%  
68 19% 74%  
69 10% 55%  
70 7% 45% Median
71 2% 39%  
72 13% 37%  
73 12% 24%  
74 7% 12%  
75 2% 5%  
76 0.7% 3%  
77 0.5% 2%  
78 1.1% 2%  
79 0.3% 0.5%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0% 99.9%  
55 0.2% 99.8%  
56 9% 99.6%  
57 0.8% 91%  
58 3% 90%  
59 14% 87%  
60 3% 73%  
61 8% 70%  
62 12% 62% Median
63 6% 50%  
64 12% 44%  
65 16% 32%  
66 5% 17%  
67 7% 12%  
68 2% 5%  
69 1.1% 3%  
70 0.6% 2%  
71 0.7% 1.0%  
72 0.2% 0.4%  
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.1% 99.8%  
53 0.2% 99.7%  
54 11% 99.5%  
55 0.9% 89%  
56 4% 88%  
57 14% 84%  
58 2% 71%  
59 8% 69%  
60 11% 60% Median
61 7% 49%  
62 12% 42%  
63 14% 30%  
64 5% 16%  
65 7% 11%  
66 1.2% 4%  
67 1.2% 2%  
68 0.4% 1.2%  
69 0.6% 0.8%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0% 99.9%  
43 0.1% 99.9%  
44 0.4% 99.7%  
45 2% 99.3%  
46 0.8% 97%  
47 8% 96%  
48 3% 88%  
49 19% 85%  
50 8% 66%  
51 7% 58%  
52 14% 51% Median
53 10% 37%  
54 11% 27%  
55 10% 16%  
56 2% 6%  
57 1.0% 4%  
58 1.0% 3%  
59 1.4% 1.5%  
60 0% 0.1% Last Result
61 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0% 99.9%  
40 0.7% 99.9%  
41 0.4% 99.2%  
42 0.9% 98.8%  
43 1.4% 98%  
44 2% 97%  
45 6% 95%  
46 5% 88%  
47 14% 83%  
48 11% 69%  
49 12% 58%  
50 3% 46% Median
51 28% 43%  
52 2% 15%  
53 10% 13%  
54 1.3% 4%  
55 0.8% 2%  
56 0.5% 2%  
57 0.7% 1.1%  
58 0.1% 0.5%  
59 0.3% 0.4%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
62 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 99.9%  
29 0% 99.9%  
30 2% 99.9%  
31 0.6% 98%  
32 1.4% 98%  
33 0.8% 96%  
34 6% 95%  
35 8% 89% Last Result
36 12% 80%  
37 10% 69%  
38 9% 58%  
39 3% 49%  
40 4% 46% Median
41 22% 42%  
42 2% 20%  
43 9% 18%  
44 5% 9%  
45 3% 4%  
46 0.8% 2%  
47 0.6% 0.9%  
48 0.1% 0.4%  
49 0.1% 0.3%  
50 0% 0.2%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations