Opinion Poll by Norfakta, 3–4 September 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 23.8% 22.2–25.6% 21.7–26.1% 21.3–26.6% 20.5–27.5%
Høyre 25.0% 22.1% 20.5–23.9% 20.1–24.4% 19.7–24.8% 18.9–25.7%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 17.1% 15.7–18.8% 15.3–19.2% 14.9–19.6% 14.3–20.4%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 11.0% 9.8–12.3% 9.4–12.7% 9.2–13.1% 8.6–13.7%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.4% 6.4–8.6% 6.1–8.9% 5.9–9.2% 5.5–9.8%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 6.5% 5.6–7.6% 5.3–7.9% 5.1–8.2% 4.7–8.7%
Rødt 2.4% 3.3% 2.7–4.1% 2.5–4.4% 2.3–4.6% 2.1–5.0%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.3% 2.7–4.1% 2.5–4.4% 2.3–4.6% 2.1–5.0%
Venstre 4.4% 2.4% 1.9–3.1% 1.7–3.4% 1.6–3.5% 1.4–3.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 44 40–48 39–49 38–49 37–52
Høyre 45 40 37–44 36–44 35–45 33–47
Senterpartiet 19 33 29–35 28–36 27–36 26–38
Fremskrittspartiet 27 20 17–23 17–23 16–24 15–25
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 13 11–16 11–17 10–17 9–18
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 12 10–14 9–14 9–15 8–16
Rødt 1 2 1–7 1–8 1–8 1–9
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 2 1–7 1–8 0–8 0–9
Venstre 8 2 1–2 0–2 0–2 0–3

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.4% 99.9%  
38 2% 99.5%  
39 3% 97%  
40 6% 94%  
41 7% 88%  
42 7% 81%  
43 10% 74%  
44 20% 63% Median
45 15% 43%  
46 9% 29%  
47 10% 20%  
48 4% 10%  
49 4% 6% Last Result
50 1.2% 2%  
51 0.4% 1.0%  
52 0.4% 0.5%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.5% 99.9%  
34 1.0% 99.3%  
35 2% 98%  
36 5% 96%  
37 6% 91%  
38 9% 85%  
39 19% 77%  
40 13% 58% Median
41 12% 45%  
42 15% 33%  
43 7% 18%  
44 6% 11%  
45 3% 4% Last Result
46 0.7% 1.4%  
47 0.5% 0.7%  
48 0.2% 0.2%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.2% 99.9%  
26 0.8% 99.7%  
27 3% 98.9%  
28 5% 95%  
29 6% 91%  
30 9% 85%  
31 12% 76%  
32 12% 64%  
33 13% 52% Median
34 25% 39%  
35 6% 14%  
36 7% 8%  
37 1.0% 2%  
38 0.7% 0.9%  
39 0.1% 0.2%  
40 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.3% 99.9%  
15 1.0% 99.7%  
16 2% 98.7%  
17 7% 96%  
18 13% 89%  
19 18% 76%  
20 15% 58% Median
21 13% 43%  
22 18% 30%  
23 8% 12%  
24 3% 4%  
25 1.1% 1.4%  
26 0.2% 0.2%  
27 0% 0.1% Last Result
28 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 0.5% 99.9%  
10 3% 99.4%  
11 10% 97% Last Result
12 19% 87%  
13 26% 67% Median
14 15% 42%  
15 14% 27%  
16 8% 13%  
17 3% 5%  
18 2% 2%  
19 0.3% 0.3%  
20 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.8% 100%  
9 5% 99.2%  
10 19% 94%  
11 23% 75%  
12 23% 53% Median
13 17% 29%  
14 8% 12%  
15 3% 5%  
16 1.1% 1.4%  
17 0.3% 0.3%  
18 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 23% 100% Last Result
2 64% 77% Median
3 0.1% 13%  
4 0% 13%  
5 0% 13%  
6 0.2% 13%  
7 6% 13%  
8 5% 7%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.1% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 29% 97%  
2 32% 68% Median
3 25% 36%  
4 0% 11%  
5 0% 11%  
6 0.1% 11%  
7 5% 11%  
8 6% 7% Last Result
9 0.8% 0.9%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100%  
1 30% 93%  
2 62% 63% Median
3 0.3% 0.7%  
4 0% 0.4%  
5 0% 0.4%  
6 0% 0.4%  
7 0.2% 0.4%  
8 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 104 100% 99–108 98–110 97–111 95–112
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 104 100% 99–108 98–110 97–111 94–113
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 101 100% 97–106 96–107 94–108 92–109
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 97 100% 92–101 91–102 90–103 88–105
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 92 98% 88–96 87–98 86–99 83–101
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 91 94% 86–95 84–96 83–97 82–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 90 94% 85–94 84–95 83–96 81–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 79 6% 73–84 72–85 72–86 70–88
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 76 0.7% 72–81 70–82 69–83 67–85
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 77 0.2% 72–81 70–82 69–82 67–84
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 62 72 0% 68–76 66–77 65–78 64–80
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 64 0% 60–69 59–70 57–71 56–73
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 62 0% 57–66 56–67 55–68 53–70
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 60 0% 56–65 54–66 53–67 51–68
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 58 0% 54–61 53–62 52–63 50–65
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 44 0% 41–48 40–49 39–50 37–52
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 36 0% 32–40 31–42 30–43 29–45

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0% 100% Last Result
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0.1% 99.9%  
94 0.2% 99.9%  
95 0.2% 99.7%  
96 1.4% 99.5%  
97 1.1% 98%  
98 4% 97%  
99 5% 94%  
100 5% 89%  
101 8% 83%  
102 8% 76%  
103 13% 67%  
104 7% 54% Median
105 13% 47%  
106 9% 35%  
107 11% 26%  
108 6% 15%  
109 4% 9%  
110 2% 5%  
111 2% 3%  
112 0.9% 1.3%  
113 0.1% 0.4%  
114 0.2% 0.2%  
115 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0.1% 100%  
92 0% 99.9%  
93 0.2% 99.9%  
94 0.3% 99.7%  
95 0.3% 99.4%  
96 1.0% 99.2%  
97 1.4% 98%  
98 3% 97%  
99 5% 93%  
100 3% 89%  
101 7% 85%  
102 12% 78%  
103 13% 67%  
104 8% 54% Median
105 10% 45%  
106 9% 35%  
107 13% 26%  
108 4% 13%  
109 3% 9%  
110 3% 5%  
111 1.0% 3%  
112 1.2% 2%  
113 0.2% 0.5%  
114 0.1% 0.3%  
115 0.2% 0.2%  
116 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0.1% 99.9%  
91 0.2% 99.9%  
92 0.3% 99.6%  
93 0.5% 99.3%  
94 1.5% 98.8%  
95 2% 97%  
96 4% 95%  
97 6% 91%  
98 5% 85%  
99 7% 80%  
100 9% 73%  
101 17% 64%  
102 9% 47% Median
103 6% 38%  
104 10% 32%  
105 12% 22%  
106 4% 10%  
107 3% 6%  
108 2% 3%  
109 1.1% 1.5%  
110 0.3% 0.4%  
111 0.1% 0.1%  
112 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0.1% 99.8%  
88 0.6% 99.7%  
89 1.1% 99.1%  
90 2% 98%  
91 3% 96%  
92 4% 93%  
93 5% 89%  
94 8% 83%  
95 9% 75%  
96 15% 66%  
97 13% 51% Median
98 8% 38%  
99 7% 29%  
100 11% 23%  
101 6% 12%  
102 3% 6%  
103 2% 3%  
104 0.6% 1.3%  
105 0.5% 0.7%  
106 0.2% 0.2%  
107 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.1% 100% Last Result
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.2% 99.8%  
83 0.3% 99.7%  
84 1.0% 99.4%  
85 0.7% 98% Majority
86 2% 98%  
87 5% 95%  
88 5% 91%  
89 5% 86%  
90 9% 81%  
91 10% 72%  
92 14% 62% Median
93 14% 48%  
94 7% 34%  
95 9% 27%  
96 8% 18%  
97 4% 10%  
98 2% 6%  
99 2% 3%  
100 0.7% 1.3%  
101 0.2% 0.6%  
102 0.3% 0.3%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100% Last Result
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0.1% 100%  
81 0.2% 99.9%  
82 0.9% 99.7%  
83 2% 98.8%  
84 3% 97%  
85 3% 94% Majority
86 5% 91%  
87 8% 86%  
88 7% 78%  
89 7% 71%  
90 14% 64%  
91 9% 51% Median
92 11% 42%  
93 9% 31%  
94 5% 22%  
95 9% 17%  
96 3% 8%  
97 2% 5%  
98 2% 2%  
99 0.3% 0.6%  
100 0.1% 0.3%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
80 0.2% 99.8%  
81 0.7% 99.5%  
82 1.0% 98.9%  
83 1.4% 98%  
84 3% 96%  
85 6% 94% Majority
86 6% 88%  
87 5% 82%  
88 10% 77%  
89 11% 66%  
90 9% 55% Median
91 16% 45%  
92 8% 29%  
93 8% 22%  
94 5% 14%  
95 5% 8%  
96 2% 3%  
97 0.7% 1.1%  
98 0.3% 0.4%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.3% 99.9%  
70 0.2% 99.6%  
71 2% 99.3%  
72 3% 98%  
73 5% 94%  
74 3% 90%  
75 6% 86%  
76 8% 81% Last Result
77 12% 73%  
78 6% 61%  
79 6% 55% Median
80 14% 49%  
81 12% 36%  
82 5% 24%  
83 8% 18%  
84 4% 11%  
85 2% 6% Majority
86 2% 4%  
87 1.3% 2%  
88 0.4% 0.6%  
89 0.2% 0.2%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.2% 100%  
66 0.2% 99.8%  
67 0.5% 99.6%  
68 1.0% 99.0%  
69 0.9% 98%  
70 3% 97%  
71 3% 95%  
72 5% 91%  
73 10% 87%  
74 9% 77%  
75 8% 67%  
76 14% 60% Median
77 14% 46%  
78 10% 32%  
79 8% 23%  
80 4% 14%  
81 5% 11%  
82 3% 6%  
83 2% 3%  
84 0.5% 1.2%  
85 0.4% 0.7% Majority
86 0.2% 0.3%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.2% 99.9%  
67 0.4% 99.7%  
68 0.6% 99.3% Last Result
69 2% 98.7%  
70 3% 97%  
71 4% 94%  
72 6% 90%  
73 7% 84%  
74 9% 78%  
75 7% 68%  
76 9% 61%  
77 7% 52% Median
78 17% 45%  
79 9% 28%  
80 6% 19%  
81 7% 13%  
82 3% 5%  
83 2% 2%  
84 0.6% 0.8%  
85 0.1% 0.2% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
63 0.3% 99.8%  
64 1.2% 99.5%  
65 0.9% 98%  
66 3% 97%  
67 4% 95%  
68 6% 91%  
69 13% 85%  
70 8% 72%  
71 8% 64% Median
72 13% 56%  
73 15% 42%  
74 9% 27%  
75 8% 19%  
76 4% 11%  
77 3% 7%  
78 3% 4%  
79 1.2% 2%  
80 0.4% 0.7%  
81 0.2% 0.3%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.2% 100%  
55 0.3% 99.8%  
56 0.5% 99.5%  
57 1.5% 99.0%  
58 2% 97%  
59 4% 96%  
60 4% 92%  
61 5% 88%  
62 14% 83%  
63 11% 69%  
64 11% 58% Median
65 8% 48%  
66 13% 40%  
67 10% 27%  
68 6% 16%  
69 2% 10%  
70 3% 8%  
71 3% 5%  
72 0.9% 2%  
73 0.3% 0.7%  
74 0.2% 0.4%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.2% 99.8%  
53 0.7% 99.6%  
54 0.5% 98.9%  
55 3% 98%  
56 2% 96%  
57 4% 94%  
58 5% 89%  
59 6% 84%  
60 13% 78%  
61 10% 65%  
62 15% 55% Median
63 8% 40%  
64 8% 32%  
65 11% 24%  
66 5% 13%  
67 4% 9%  
68 2% 5%  
69 2% 2%  
70 0.2% 0.6%  
71 0.3% 0.4%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.3% 99.8%  
52 0.6% 99.5%  
53 2% 98.9%  
54 2% 97%  
55 3% 95%  
56 4% 92%  
57 5% 87%  
58 13% 82%  
59 12% 69%  
60 10% 57% Median
61 12% 47%  
62 9% 35%  
63 6% 26%  
64 10% 21%  
65 4% 10%  
66 3% 6%  
67 2% 3%  
68 0.5% 1.0%  
69 0.3% 0.5%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.2% 99.9%  
50 0.7% 99.8%  
51 1.0% 99.0%  
52 3% 98%  
53 4% 95%  
54 6% 92%  
55 9% 86%  
56 11% 77%  
57 16% 66% Median
58 13% 50%  
59 16% 37%  
60 7% 21% Last Result
61 6% 14%  
62 4% 8%  
63 2% 4%  
64 0.9% 2%  
65 0.4% 0.7%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.7% 99.8%  
38 1.0% 99.2%  
39 2% 98%  
40 5% 96%  
41 7% 91%  
42 9% 84%  
43 18% 75%  
44 11% 57% Median
45 16% 46%  
46 8% 30%  
47 6% 22%  
48 9% 16%  
49 3% 7%  
50 2% 4%  
51 0.9% 2%  
52 0.5% 1.0%  
53 0.2% 0.4%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.1% 99.9%  
29 0.3% 99.8%  
30 2% 99.5%  
31 4% 97%  
32 5% 94%  
33 7% 89%  
34 8% 82%  
35 7% 74% Last Result
36 19% 67%  
37 13% 48% Median
38 16% 35%  
39 7% 19%  
40 3% 12%  
41 2% 9%  
42 2% 7%  
43 2% 5%  
44 2% 2%  
45 0.5% 0.8%  
46 0.2% 0.3%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations