Opinion Poll by Ipsos MMI, 23–25 September 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 22.0% 20.4–23.9% 19.9–24.4% 19.5–24.8% 18.7–25.7%
Høyre 25.0% 21.3% 19.7–23.1% 19.2–23.6% 18.8–24.0% 18.0–24.9%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 17.3% 15.7–18.9% 15.3–19.4% 15.0–19.8% 14.3–20.6%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 11.7% 10.5–13.2% 10.1–13.6% 9.8–13.9% 9.2–14.7%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 8.4% 7.3–9.7% 7.1–10.1% 6.8–10.4% 6.3–11.0%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 6.4% 5.5–7.5% 5.2–7.9% 5.0–8.2% 4.6–8.7%
Rødt 2.4% 4.0% 3.3–5.0% 3.1–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–6.0%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.4% 2.8–4.3% 2.6–4.6% 2.4–4.8% 2.1–5.2%
Venstre 4.4% 2.6% 2.0–3.4% 1.8–3.6% 1.7–3.8% 1.5–4.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 42 37–44 37–45 36–45 34–47
Høyre 45 38 34–42 33–43 33–43 32–46
Senterpartiet 19 33 29–35 28–36 27–37 25–38
Fremskrittspartiet 27 21 19–24 18–25 17–25 16–27
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 15 13–18 12–19 12–20 11–20
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 11 10–14 9–14 9–15 8–16
Rødt 1 7 2–9 2–9 2–10 1–11
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 2 1–7 1–8 1–8 0–9
Venstre 8 2 1–2 0–2 0–2 0–7

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.1% 100%  
33 0.2% 99.9%  
34 0.5% 99.7%  
35 1.2% 99.3%  
36 3% 98%  
37 6% 95%  
38 7% 89%  
39 12% 83%  
40 10% 71%  
41 10% 61%  
42 13% 51% Median
43 16% 38%  
44 16% 22%  
45 4% 6%  
46 1.1% 2%  
47 0.4% 0.8%  
48 0.3% 0.3%  
49 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
50 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.3% 99.9%  
32 2% 99.7%  
33 4% 98%  
34 9% 94%  
35 9% 84%  
36 14% 76%  
37 8% 62%  
38 15% 54% Median
39 11% 39%  
40 11% 28%  
41 5% 18%  
42 6% 12%  
43 3% 6%  
44 1.2% 2%  
45 0.4% 1.1% Last Result
46 0.4% 0.7%  
47 0.3% 0.4%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.5% 99.9%  
26 0.8% 99.4%  
27 2% 98.7%  
28 5% 96%  
29 4% 92%  
30 10% 87%  
31 12% 77%  
32 13% 66%  
33 28% 53% Median
34 10% 24%  
35 6% 14%  
36 4% 8%  
37 3% 4%  
38 0.6% 0.9%  
39 0.2% 0.4%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.2% 99.9%  
16 1.0% 99.8%  
17 2% 98.8%  
18 4% 96%  
19 12% 92%  
20 24% 80%  
21 16% 56% Median
22 15% 40%  
23 12% 25%  
24 8% 13%  
25 4% 5%  
26 1.0% 2%  
27 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.2% 100%  
11 2% 99.7% Last Result
12 8% 98%  
13 15% 90%  
14 23% 75%  
15 15% 52% Median
16 11% 37%  
17 11% 26%  
18 7% 15%  
19 6% 8%  
20 2% 3%  
21 0.3% 0.4%  
22 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.1% 100%  
8 0.8% 99.9%  
9 5% 99.2%  
10 15% 94%  
11 29% 79% Median
12 23% 50%  
13 15% 27%  
14 9% 12%  
15 2% 3%  
16 0.5% 0.6%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100% Last Result
2 45% 98%  
3 0.1% 53%  
4 0% 53%  
5 0% 53%  
6 0.2% 53%  
7 12% 53% Median
8 29% 42%  
9 9% 13%  
10 2% 3%  
11 0.7% 0.8%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 27% 98%  
2 22% 71% Median
3 33% 49%  
4 0% 16%  
5 0% 16%  
6 0.2% 16%  
7 6% 16%  
8 8% 9% Last Result
9 1.4% 2%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100%  
1 22% 95%  
2 71% 72% Median
3 0.4% 1.2%  
4 0% 0.8%  
5 0% 0.8%  
6 0% 0.8%  
7 0.5% 0.7%  
8 0.2% 0.2% Last Result
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 105 100% 101–110 99–111 97–112 95–113
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 103 100% 98–107 97–108 96–109 93–111
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 100 100% 96–104 94–105 93–105 90–107
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 96 99.9% 91–100 90–102 89–103 88–105
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 93 98% 89–99 87–99 85–100 83–102
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 88 81% 83–93 82–94 80–96 78–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 89 87% 84–92 82–93 81–94 79–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 76 2% 71–81 70–83 69–84 66–87
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 75 1.4% 70–80 70–81 69–83 66–86
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 74 0% 69–77 67–78 66–79 64–81
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 63 0% 59–68 58–70 57–71 55–73
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 60 0% 56–65 55–66 54–67 52–70
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 59 0% 54–64 54–65 52–65 50–68
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 57 0% 52–59 51–61 50–61 48–63
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 42 0% 39–47 38–48 37–50 36–52
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 37 0% 33–41 32–43 31–44 30–46

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 99.9%  
93 0.1% 99.9%  
94 0.2% 99.9%  
95 0.4% 99.7%  
96 2% 99.3%  
97 0.6% 98%  
98 2% 97%  
99 2% 96%  
100 3% 94%  
101 4% 91%  
102 8% 86%  
103 13% 79%  
104 8% 66%  
105 10% 58%  
106 9% 48%  
107 8% 39%  
108 10% 31% Median
109 7% 21%  
110 8% 14%  
111 1.4% 5%  
112 3% 4%  
113 0.4% 0.8%  
114 0.3% 0.5%  
115 0.1% 0.1%  
116 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0% 100% Last Result
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0.1% 100%  
92 0.2% 99.9%  
93 0.2% 99.7%  
94 0.6% 99.5%  
95 1.3% 98.9%  
96 1.2% 98%  
97 3% 96%  
98 4% 94%  
99 4% 90%  
100 7% 86%  
101 9% 78%  
102 9% 70%  
103 19% 61% Median
104 8% 42%  
105 15% 34%  
106 6% 19%  
107 5% 13%  
108 3% 8%  
109 3% 5%  
110 0.8% 2%  
111 0.8% 1.2%  
112 0.3% 0.4%  
113 0.1% 0.1%  
114 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 99.9%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.3% 99.7%  
91 0.5% 99.4%  
92 1.0% 98.9%  
93 2% 98%  
94 4% 96%  
95 2% 92%  
96 4% 90%  
97 7% 86%  
98 6% 79%  
99 9% 73%  
100 15% 65%  
101 15% 49% Median
102 16% 35%  
103 6% 19%  
104 7% 13%  
105 3% 6%  
106 1.3% 2%  
107 0.7% 1.1%  
108 0.3% 0.4%  
109 0.1% 0.1%  
110 0% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0.1% 100%  
85 0% 99.9% Majority
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0.3% 99.8%  
88 0.6% 99.5%  
89 3% 98.9%  
90 3% 96%  
91 6% 93%  
92 10% 87%  
93 10% 77%  
94 8% 66%  
95 6% 59%  
96 10% 53% Median
97 7% 43%  
98 11% 36%  
99 10% 24%  
100 6% 14%  
101 3% 8%  
102 1.3% 5%  
103 3% 4%  
104 0.8% 2%  
105 0.4% 0.9%  
106 0.3% 0.4%  
107 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
108 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 99.9%  
82 0.3% 99.9%  
83 0.6% 99.6%  
84 0.7% 99.0%  
85 0.8% 98% Majority
86 1.2% 97%  
87 2% 96%  
88 3% 94%  
89 6% 91%  
90 4% 85%  
91 11% 81%  
92 10% 70%  
93 10% 60%  
94 8% 50%  
95 7% 42%  
96 7% 35%  
97 11% 28% Median
98 5% 17%  
99 9% 12%  
100 2% 3%  
101 1.0% 1.5%  
102 0.3% 0.5%  
103 0.2% 0.2%  
104 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
78 0.1% 99.6%  
79 1.0% 99.5%  
80 1.2% 98%  
81 2% 97%  
82 4% 96%  
83 4% 92%  
84 6% 88%  
85 9% 81% Majority
86 8% 72%  
87 12% 64%  
88 6% 53% Median
89 10% 47%  
90 12% 37%  
91 11% 26%  
92 4% 15%  
93 4% 11%  
94 2% 6%  
95 0.9% 4%  
96 2% 3%  
97 0.2% 0.9%  
98 0.1% 0.7%  
99 0.6% 0.6%  
100 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.2% 99.9%  
79 0.3% 99.7% Last Result
80 0.7% 99.4%  
81 1.3% 98.7%  
82 3% 97%  
83 3% 95%  
84 4% 92%  
85 6% 87% Majority
86 6% 81%  
87 11% 75%  
88 7% 64%  
89 18% 57%  
90 11% 39% Median
91 16% 28%  
92 4% 11%  
93 4% 8%  
94 2% 4%  
95 1.0% 2%  
96 0.3% 0.7%  
97 0.3% 0.4%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.3% 99.8%  
67 0.3% 99.5%  
68 1.2% 99.2%  
69 1.5% 98%  
70 3% 97%  
71 4% 94%  
72 5% 89%  
73 10% 84%  
74 7% 74%  
75 9% 67%  
76 10% 58% Last Result
77 9% 48% Median
78 11% 39%  
79 8% 29%  
80 10% 21%  
81 3% 11%  
82 2% 7%  
83 1.3% 5%  
84 2% 4%  
85 0.7% 2% Majority
86 0.2% 0.9%  
87 0.6% 0.7%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.4% 99.8%  
67 0.4% 99.4%  
68 1.3% 99.0%  
69 2% 98%  
70 9% 96%  
71 5% 87%  
72 12% 81%  
73 7% 70%  
74 8% 63% Median
75 8% 55%  
76 11% 48%  
77 10% 37%  
78 10% 28%  
79 4% 17%  
80 6% 13%  
81 3% 7%  
82 2% 5%  
83 0.8% 3%  
84 0.7% 2%  
85 0.6% 1.4% Majority
86 0.6% 0.9%  
87 0.3% 0.3%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.2% 99.9%  
64 0.3% 99.7%  
65 0.9% 99.3%  
66 2% 98%  
67 3% 97%  
68 2% 94% Last Result
69 5% 92%  
70 8% 87%  
71 7% 79%  
72 11% 72%  
73 11% 61%  
74 12% 51%  
75 7% 39% Median
76 9% 32%  
77 15% 23%  
78 4% 8%  
79 1.3% 3%  
80 1.3% 2%  
81 0.4% 0.6%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.6% 99.8%  
56 0.5% 99.3%  
57 4% 98.7%  
58 2% 95%  
59 9% 94%  
60 7% 85%  
61 10% 78%  
62 9% 68%  
63 9% 59% Median
64 10% 50%  
65 8% 40%  
66 13% 32%  
67 8% 19%  
68 4% 11%  
69 2% 7%  
70 2% 5%  
71 1.3% 3%  
72 0.5% 2%  
73 1.2% 2%  
74 0.2% 0.4%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.2% 99.9%  
52 0.5% 99.7%  
53 0.8% 99.2%  
54 2% 98%  
55 2% 96%  
56 11% 95%  
57 3% 84%  
58 9% 80%  
59 12% 71%  
60 10% 59%  
61 9% 50% Median
62 10% 40%  
63 6% 31%  
64 12% 24%  
65 6% 12%  
66 3% 7%  
67 1.5% 4%  
68 0.6% 2%  
69 0.8% 1.5%  
70 0.3% 0.6%  
71 0.3% 0.4%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.2% 99.9%  
50 0.3% 99.8%  
51 0.9% 99.5%  
52 2% 98.6%  
53 2% 97%  
54 10% 95%  
55 4% 85%  
56 9% 81%  
57 9% 73%  
58 12% 64%  
59 9% 52% Median
60 10% 42%  
61 5% 33%  
62 12% 28%  
63 6% 16%  
64 5% 10%  
65 3% 5%  
66 0.8% 2%  
67 0.9% 2%  
68 0.3% 0.7%  
69 0.3% 0.4%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.2% 99.9%  
48 0.5% 99.8%  
49 1.3% 99.2%  
50 2% 98%  
51 5% 96%  
52 5% 91%  
53 5% 86%  
54 6% 82%  
55 7% 75%  
56 17% 69%  
57 17% 52% Median
58 18% 35%  
59 8% 17%  
60 3% 9% Last Result
61 4% 6%  
62 1.2% 2%  
63 0.7% 1.0%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 1.2% 99.8%  
37 3% 98.6%  
38 5% 96%  
39 12% 90%  
40 8% 78%  
41 10% 70%  
42 16% 60% Median
43 11% 44%  
44 9% 33%  
45 9% 24%  
46 4% 15%  
47 3% 10%  
48 2% 7%  
49 2% 5%  
50 2% 3%  
51 0.6% 1.3%  
52 0.5% 0.8%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.2% 100%  
29 0.3% 99.8%  
30 1.2% 99.5%  
31 3% 98%  
32 4% 95%  
33 6% 92%  
34 11% 86%  
35 9% 74% Last Result
36 13% 65%  
37 9% 52% Median
38 20% 43%  
39 5% 24%  
40 5% 19%  
41 4% 14%  
42 3% 9%  
43 4% 6%  
44 1.3% 3%  
45 0.7% 1.4%  
46 0.3% 0.6%  
47 0.2% 0.4%  
48 0% 0.2%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations