Opinion Poll by Respons Analyse, 23–25 September 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 26.3% 24.6–28.2% 24.1–28.7% 23.7–29.1% 22.8–30.0%
Høyre 25.0% 20.6% 19.0–22.3% 18.6–22.8% 18.2–23.2% 17.5–24.1%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 14.8% 13.4–16.3% 13.1–16.8% 12.7–17.1% 12.1–17.9%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 11.9% 10.7–13.3% 10.3–13.7% 10.0–14.1% 9.5–14.8%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 6.9% 6.0–8.0% 5.7–8.4% 5.5–8.7% 5.1–9.2%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 6.7% 5.8–7.8% 5.5–8.2% 5.3–8.4% 4.9–9.0%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.2% 3.5–5.1% 3.3–5.4% 3.1–5.6% 2.8–6.1%
Rødt 2.4% 3.3% 2.7–4.1% 2.5–4.4% 2.4–4.6% 2.1–5.0%
Venstre 4.4% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 48 45–51 44–53 43–54 42–55
Høyre 45 37 34–41 33–41 32–42 31–44
Senterpartiet 19 27 24–30 23–32 22–33 21–34
Fremskrittspartiet 27 21 19–24 18–25 18–25 17–27
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 12 10–14 10–15 10–15 9–17
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 12 10–14 10–15 9–15 9–16
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 8 3–9 2–10 2–10 1–11
Rødt 1 2 1–7 1–8 1–8 1–9
Venstre 8 2 2–3 1–7 1–7 1–8

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.3% 99.9%  
42 1.3% 99.6%  
43 2% 98%  
44 7% 97%  
45 17% 90%  
46 11% 73%  
47 8% 62%  
48 15% 55% Median
49 14% 39% Last Result
50 9% 26%  
51 7% 16%  
52 2% 9%  
53 3% 6%  
54 3% 4%  
55 0.7% 1.2%  
56 0.3% 0.5%  
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.2% 99.9%  
31 0.8% 99.7%  
32 2% 98.9%  
33 4% 97%  
34 8% 93%  
35 12% 84%  
36 17% 72%  
37 11% 55% Median
38 14% 44%  
39 9% 30%  
40 10% 22%  
41 8% 12%  
42 2% 4%  
43 1.3% 2%  
44 0.4% 0.5%  
45 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
46 0% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.7% 99.9%  
22 2% 99.2%  
23 4% 97%  
24 7% 94%  
25 18% 86%  
26 13% 68%  
27 18% 56% Median
28 12% 38%  
29 8% 26%  
30 9% 18%  
31 2% 9%  
32 2% 7%  
33 4% 5%  
34 1.1% 1.3%  
35 0.2% 0.2%  
36 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.3% 99.9%  
17 2% 99.7%  
18 6% 98%  
19 10% 92%  
20 17% 82%  
21 23% 65% Median
22 21% 43%  
23 10% 22%  
24 5% 12%  
25 5% 7%  
26 2% 2%  
27 0.5% 0.7% Last Result
28 0.3% 0.3%  
29 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.2% 100%  
9 2% 99.8%  
10 8% 98%  
11 14% 90%  
12 33% 76% Median
13 24% 43%  
14 11% 19%  
15 6% 8%  
16 2% 2%  
17 0.5% 0.6%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.2% 100%  
9 4% 99.8%  
10 12% 96%  
11 20% 84% Last Result
12 27% 64% Median
13 17% 37%  
14 15% 20%  
15 4% 5%  
16 0.9% 1.3%  
17 0.3% 0.3%  
18 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100%  
2 6% 98%  
3 28% 92%  
4 0% 64%  
5 0% 64%  
6 0.1% 64%  
7 12% 64%  
8 26% 52% Last Result, Median
9 19% 26%  
10 6% 7%  
11 1.3% 1.4%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 23% 100% Last Result
2 63% 77% Median
3 0% 15%  
4 0% 15%  
5 0% 15%  
6 0.1% 15%  
7 9% 15%  
8 5% 6%  
9 0.9% 0.9%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 5% 99.7%  
2 83% 94% Median
3 2% 11%  
4 0% 9%  
5 0% 9%  
6 0.2% 9%  
7 7% 8%  
8 2% 2% Last Result
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 106 100% 101–109 100–111 98–112 97–114
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 81 102 100% 98–107 97–108 95–109 94–111
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 80 99 100% 95–104 94–105 93–106 91–107
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 94 99.5% 89–99 88–100 87–101 85–102
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 94 98.9% 89–98 87–99 86–100 84–102
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 89 94% 85–94 84–95 83–96 81–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 87 80% 83–91 82–93 81–93 79–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 82 18% 76–86 75–87 73–87 72–89
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 80 6% 75–84 74–85 73–86 70–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 62 75 0.4% 70–80 69–81 68–82 67–84
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 75 0.1% 71–79 70–80 69–81 67–83
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 67 0% 62–71 61–72 60–74 58–75
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 61 0% 57–65 55–66 55–67 52–69
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 60 0% 56–64 55–65 55–66 53–68
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 58 0% 54–63 53–64 52–64 50–66
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 46 0% 42–50 40–51 39–52 37–54
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 36 0% 30–41 30–43 29–44 27–45

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0% 100% Last Result
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0.1% 100%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.2% 99.8%  
97 0.8% 99.6%  
98 1.4% 98.8%  
99 2% 97%  
100 2% 95%  
101 5% 93%  
102 6% 88%  
103 12% 82%  
104 6% 70%  
105 10% 64%  
106 12% 54%  
107 10% 43% Median
108 10% 32%  
109 13% 22%  
110 3% 9%  
111 3% 6%  
112 1.5% 3%  
113 0.9% 2%  
114 0.5% 0.6%  
115 0.1% 0.1%  
116 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0.1% 99.9%  
93 0.3% 99.8%  
94 1.2% 99.6%  
95 1.1% 98%  
96 1.3% 97%  
97 5% 96%  
98 3% 91%  
99 8% 88%  
100 11% 79%  
101 15% 68% Median
102 20% 53%  
103 8% 33%  
104 6% 25%  
105 3% 20%  
106 7% 17%  
107 5% 10%  
108 2% 5%  
109 2% 3%  
110 0.6% 1.2%  
111 0.4% 0.6%  
112 0.1% 0.2%  
113 0.1% 0.1%  
114 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 99.9%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.2% 99.8%  
91 0.3% 99.6%  
92 1.3% 99.3%  
93 2% 98%  
94 2% 96%  
95 7% 94%  
96 4% 87%  
97 6% 83%  
98 16% 77%  
99 11% 61% Median
100 25% 50%  
101 7% 25%  
102 3% 18%  
103 2% 14%  
104 4% 12%  
105 5% 8%  
106 2% 3%  
107 0.9% 1.3%  
108 0.3% 0.4%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0.1% 100%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0.3% 99.8%  
85 0.9% 99.5% Majority
86 0.6% 98.6%  
87 1.1% 98%  
88 4% 97%  
89 4% 93%  
90 4% 89%  
91 6% 85%  
92 6% 78%  
93 11% 73%  
94 19% 62%  
95 9% 43% Median
96 5% 34%  
97 12% 29%  
98 6% 17%  
99 6% 12%  
100 4% 6%  
101 2% 3%  
102 0.7% 0.9%  
103 0.1% 0.2%  
104 0.1% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100% Last Result
78 0% 100%  
79 0% 100%  
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 100%  
82 0.1% 100%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0.9% 99.8%  
85 1.2% 98.9% Majority
86 2% 98%  
87 2% 96%  
88 2% 94%  
89 6% 92%  
90 5% 87%  
91 6% 81%  
92 16% 75%  
93 7% 59%  
94 12% 52%  
95 10% 41% Median
96 6% 30%  
97 12% 25%  
98 6% 13%  
99 3% 6%  
100 1.0% 3%  
101 1.2% 2%  
102 0.6% 0.8%  
103 0.2% 0.2%  
104 0% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.1% 100%  
80 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
81 0.4% 99.7%  
82 1.1% 99.3%  
83 1.1% 98%  
84 3% 97%  
85 5% 94% Majority
86 5% 89%  
87 13% 84%  
88 14% 71%  
89 12% 57% Median
90 11% 45%  
91 6% 34%  
92 10% 29%  
93 4% 18%  
94 6% 15%  
95 4% 8%  
96 2% 4%  
97 0.9% 2%  
98 0.6% 1.3%  
99 0.4% 0.6%  
100 0.1% 0.2%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.2% 99.8%  
79 0.4% 99.6% Last Result
80 1.2% 99.2%  
81 1.3% 98%  
82 4% 97%  
83 7% 93%  
84 6% 86%  
85 10% 80% Majority
86 14% 70%  
87 19% 56% Median
88 11% 37%  
89 5% 25%  
90 8% 21%  
91 4% 12%  
92 3% 8%  
93 3% 5%  
94 2% 2%  
95 0.3% 0.8%  
96 0.5% 0.5%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 1.0% 99.7%  
73 1.3% 98.7%  
74 2% 97%  
75 1.4% 95%  
76 5% 94% Last Result
77 5% 89%  
78 7% 84%  
79 6% 78%  
80 16% 72%  
81 5% 55%  
82 16% 51%  
83 6% 35% Median
84 11% 29%  
85 7% 18% Majority
86 5% 11%  
87 3% 6%  
88 1.3% 2%  
89 0.8% 1.2%  
90 0.2% 0.4%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.4% 99.8%  
71 0.6% 99.3%  
72 0.9% 98.7%  
73 2% 98%  
74 4% 96%  
75 6% 92%  
76 4% 85%  
77 10% 81%  
78 6% 71%  
79 11% 65%  
80 12% 55% Median
81 14% 43%  
82 13% 29%  
83 5% 16%  
84 5% 11%  
85 3% 6% Majority
86 1.0% 3%  
87 1.1% 2%  
88 0.4% 0.6%  
89 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100% Last Result
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.7% 99.7%  
68 2% 99.1%  
69 4% 97%  
70 6% 94%  
71 6% 88%  
72 12% 83%  
73 5% 71%  
74 9% 66% Median
75 19% 57%  
76 11% 38%  
77 6% 27%  
78 6% 21%  
79 4% 15%  
80 4% 11%  
81 4% 7%  
82 1.1% 3%  
83 0.6% 2%  
84 0.9% 1.3%  
85 0.3% 0.4% Majority
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.2% 99.9%  
67 0.5% 99.7%  
68 1.2% 99.3% Last Result
69 2% 98%  
70 4% 96%  
71 7% 93%  
72 7% 85%  
73 15% 78%  
74 10% 64%  
75 13% 53% Median
76 10% 40%  
77 12% 30%  
78 7% 19%  
79 4% 11%  
80 3% 7%  
81 2% 4%  
82 1.2% 2%  
83 0.7% 1.0%  
84 0.2% 0.3%  
85 0.1% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.2% 99.9%  
58 0.4% 99.8%  
59 0.7% 99.4%  
60 2% 98.7%  
61 2% 97%  
62 5% 95%  
63 7% 89%  
64 3% 83%  
65 6% 80%  
66 8% 75%  
67 20% 66%  
68 15% 47% Median
69 11% 32%  
70 8% 21%  
71 3% 12%  
72 5% 9%  
73 1.3% 4%  
74 1.1% 3%  
75 1.2% 2%  
76 0.2% 0.4%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.4% 99.9%  
53 0.6% 99.4%  
54 1.0% 98.8%  
55 3% 98%  
56 4% 94%  
57 5% 90%  
58 13% 85%  
59 9% 73%  
60 12% 63% Median
61 7% 51%  
62 13% 44%  
63 7% 31%  
64 9% 24%  
65 7% 15%  
66 4% 8%  
67 2% 3%  
68 0.5% 1.3%  
69 0.3% 0.8%  
70 0.4% 0.5%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 0.7% 99.8%  
54 1.4% 99.1%  
55 5% 98%  
56 5% 93%  
57 17% 88%  
58 11% 71%  
59 9% 60%  
60 6% 52% Last Result, Median
61 12% 46%  
62 12% 33%  
63 9% 21%  
64 5% 12%  
65 4% 7%  
66 2% 3%  
67 0.5% 1.2%  
68 0.3% 0.6%  
69 0.2% 0.3%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.5% 99.8%  
51 0.7% 99.4%  
52 1.3% 98.7%  
53 5% 97%  
54 4% 93%  
55 6% 89%  
56 14% 83%  
57 13% 70%  
58 12% 57% Median
59 7% 45%  
60 12% 38%  
61 6% 25%  
62 6% 20%  
63 7% 13%  
64 4% 6%  
65 2% 2%  
66 0.3% 0.6%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.4% 99.9%  
38 1.2% 99.4%  
39 1.0% 98%  
40 2% 97%  
41 5% 95%  
42 5% 90%  
43 5% 85%  
44 8% 80%  
45 12% 72%  
46 21% 59%  
47 10% 38% Median
48 11% 29%  
49 7% 18%  
50 3% 11%  
51 4% 9%  
52 3% 5%  
53 1.1% 2%  
54 0.7% 0.8%  
55 0.1% 0.2%  
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 0.5% 99.9%  
28 0.8% 99.4%  
29 3% 98.5%  
30 7% 96%  
31 4% 89%  
32 9% 85%  
33 7% 77%  
34 12% 70%  
35 8% 58% Last Result
36 7% 51%  
37 10% 44% Median
38 9% 34%  
39 6% 25%  
40 4% 19%  
41 6% 14%  
42 2% 9%  
43 4% 7%  
44 2% 3%  
45 0.6% 0.9%  
46 0.1% 0.4%  
47 0.1% 0.3%  
48 0.2% 0.2%  
49 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations