Opinion Poll by Norfakta, 1–2 October 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 23.5% 21.6–25.5% 21.1–26.0% 20.7–26.5% 19.8–27.5%
Høyre 25.0% 21.4% 19.6–23.3% 19.1–23.8% 18.7–24.3% 17.8–25.3%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 17.2% 15.5–19.0% 15.1–19.5% 14.7–19.9% 14.0–20.8%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 10.5% 9.2–12.0% 8.9–12.4% 8.6–12.8% 8.0–13.5%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.0% 6.0–8.3% 5.7–8.7% 5.5–9.0% 5.0–9.7%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 6.0% 5.1–7.3% 4.8–7.6% 4.6–7.9% 4.2–8.5%
Rødt 2.4% 4.0% 3.2–5.0% 3.0–5.3% 2.8–5.5% 2.5–6.1%
Venstre 4.4% 3.8% 3.1–4.8% 2.9–5.1% 2.7–5.4% 2.4–5.9%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.3% 2.7–4.3% 2.5–4.6% 2.3–4.8% 2.0–5.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 44 40–46 39–47 38–48 37–50
Høyre 45 38 34–42 34–43 33–43 31–45
Senterpartiet 19 33 29–36 28–36 27–37 25–39
Fremskrittspartiet 27 18 15–22 15–23 14–23 12–25
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 12 10–15 10–15 9–16 8–17
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 10 9–13 8–13 8–14 7–16
Rødt 1 2 2–9 2–9 1–10 1–10
Venstre 8 3 2–8 2–9 2–9 2–10
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 2 1–7 1–8 1–8 0–9

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100%  
35 0.1% 99.9%  
36 0.2% 99.8%  
37 0.9% 99.6%  
38 2% 98.7%  
39 6% 97%  
40 7% 91%  
41 8% 84%  
42 14% 76%  
43 11% 62%  
44 26% 51% Median
45 11% 25%  
46 5% 14%  
47 6% 10%  
48 2% 4%  
49 0.7% 2% Last Result
50 0.7% 1.2%  
51 0.2% 0.4%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.5% 99.9%  
32 1.1% 99.3%  
33 2% 98%  
34 7% 97%  
35 12% 90%  
36 8% 78%  
37 11% 70%  
38 16% 59% Median
39 10% 43%  
40 8% 33%  
41 14% 25%  
42 5% 12%  
43 5% 7%  
44 1.1% 2%  
45 0.7% 1.1% Last Result
46 0.2% 0.4%  
47 0.1% 0.2%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0.1% 99.9%  
25 0.4% 99.8%  
26 1.0% 99.5%  
27 2% 98%  
28 3% 97%  
29 4% 94%  
30 9% 90%  
31 9% 81%  
32 15% 72%  
33 19% 57% Median
34 14% 38%  
35 9% 24%  
36 11% 15%  
37 3% 4%  
38 0.7% 1.3%  
39 0.4% 0.6%  
40 0.1% 0.2%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.5% 99.9%  
13 0.6% 99.5%  
14 2% 98.8%  
15 8% 97%  
16 9% 88%  
17 14% 80%  
18 16% 66% Median
19 23% 50%  
20 9% 27%  
21 5% 18%  
22 8% 13%  
23 3% 5%  
24 2% 2%  
25 0.6% 0.7%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 2% 99.9%  
9 3% 98%  
10 7% 95%  
11 18% 88% Last Result
12 21% 70% Median
13 22% 49%  
14 8% 27%  
15 16% 19%  
16 2% 4%  
17 1.3% 2%  
18 0.4% 0.4%  
19 0% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0.2% 100%  
3 0% 99.8%  
4 0% 99.8%  
5 0% 99.8%  
6 0.1% 99.8%  
7 2% 99.7%  
8 7% 98%  
9 19% 91%  
10 25% 72% Median
11 18% 48%  
12 17% 30%  
13 9% 13%  
14 3% 4%  
15 0.6% 1.2%  
16 0.6% 0.7%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 4% 100% Last Result
2 46% 96% Median
3 0% 50%  
4 0% 50%  
5 0% 50%  
6 2% 50%  
7 21% 48%  
8 16% 27%  
9 8% 11%  
10 3% 3%  
11 0.3% 0.4%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.2% 100%  
2 46% 99.8%  
3 14% 54% Median
4 0.3% 40%  
5 0% 40%  
6 3% 40%  
7 17% 37%  
8 15% 21% Last Result
9 4% 5%  
10 0.9% 1.1%  
11 0.2% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 34% 98%  
2 20% 64% Median
3 27% 44%  
4 0% 17%  
5 0.3% 17%  
6 2% 16%  
7 9% 14%  
8 4% 5% Last Result
9 0.8% 0.9%  
10 0.1% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 104 100% 98–109 97–110 96–111 93–114
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 102 100% 97–107 96–109 94–109 92–111
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 99 100% 94–104 93–106 92–107 89–108
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 96 99.8% 92–102 91–103 90–104 86–106
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 93 98.7% 88–99 86–100 85–100 83–102
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 89 88% 84–94 83–96 82–97 79–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 88 86% 84–93 83–94 81–95 79–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 78 6% 74–83 72–85 71–86 69–88
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 89 74 0.7% 69–80 68–82 67–83 64–86
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 76 0.2% 72–80 70–81 69–82 66–84
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 64 0% 59–69 58–71 57–73 54–74
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 61 0% 56–66 55–67 53–68 51–72
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 56 0% 52–61 51–63 49–64 47–66
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 56 0% 52–60 51–61 50–62 48–64
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 45 0% 41–50 40–52 39–53 37–56
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 40 0% 35–45 34–47 32–48 30–51

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 99.9%  
91 0.1% 99.9%  
92 0.2% 99.8%  
93 0.4% 99.6%  
94 0.4% 99.2%  
95 0.9% 98.8%  
96 2% 98%  
97 3% 95%  
98 3% 92%  
99 9% 90%  
100 4% 81%  
101 8% 77% Median
102 7% 69%  
103 9% 62%  
104 5% 53%  
105 13% 48%  
106 7% 35%  
107 5% 28%  
108 7% 23%  
109 7% 15%  
110 4% 8%  
111 2% 4%  
112 0.6% 2%  
113 0.3% 1.0%  
114 0.6% 0.7%  
115 0.1% 0.2%  
116 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0% 100% Last Result
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.1% 99.9%  
91 0.2% 99.7%  
92 0.5% 99.6%  
93 1.3% 99.0%  
94 1.5% 98%  
95 1.0% 96%  
96 5% 95%  
97 5% 90%  
98 6% 85%  
99 10% 79%  
100 8% 69%  
101 10% 61% Median
102 8% 51%  
103 11% 43%  
104 10% 32%  
105 4% 22%  
106 5% 18%  
107 4% 13%  
108 4% 9%  
109 4% 6%  
110 1.0% 2%  
111 0.5% 0.9%  
112 0.1% 0.4%  
113 0.1% 0.3%  
114 0.1% 0.2%  
115 0% 0.1%  
116 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0.1% 99.9%  
87 0.1% 99.8%  
88 0.2% 99.7%  
89 0.3% 99.6%  
90 0.8% 99.3%  
91 0.9% 98%  
92 2% 98%  
93 2% 95%  
94 4% 93%  
95 7% 89%  
96 9% 82%  
97 11% 73%  
98 7% 61%  
99 13% 54% Median
100 9% 41%  
101 7% 33%  
102 5% 25%  
103 9% 21%  
104 3% 11%  
105 2% 9%  
106 3% 7%  
107 3% 4%  
108 0.4% 0.7%  
109 0.2% 0.3%  
110 0.1% 0.2%  
111 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0% 100%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 0.1% 99.8% Majority
86 0.3% 99.8%  
87 0.5% 99.5%  
88 0.5% 99.0%  
89 0.8% 98.5%  
90 2% 98%  
91 3% 96%  
92 7% 93%  
93 3% 86%  
94 12% 83% Median
95 10% 71%  
96 18% 61%  
97 12% 43%  
98 5% 31%  
99 6% 25%  
100 5% 20%  
101 3% 15%  
102 4% 12%  
103 4% 8%  
104 2% 4%  
105 1.0% 2%  
106 0.3% 0.7%  
107 0.3% 0.5% Last Result
108 0.1% 0.1%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.2% 99.8%  
83 0.7% 99.6%  
84 0.3% 99.0%  
85 2% 98.7% Majority
86 2% 96%  
87 3% 94%  
88 4% 91%  
89 8% 87%  
90 6% 79%  
91 5% 72% Median
92 9% 67%  
93 9% 58%  
94 7% 48%  
95 9% 41%  
96 8% 32%  
97 8% 24%  
98 4% 16%  
99 7% 12%  
100 3% 5%  
101 2% 2%  
102 0.5% 0.9%  
103 0.2% 0.4%  
104 0.2% 0.2%  
105 0.1% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100% Last Result
78 0.2% 99.9%  
79 0.2% 99.7%  
80 0.4% 99.5%  
81 2% 99.1%  
82 1.2% 98%  
83 2% 96%  
84 6% 94%  
85 5% 88% Majority
86 9% 83%  
87 6% 75%  
88 9% 69%  
89 18% 59% Median
90 8% 42%  
91 9% 33%  
92 4% 24%  
93 5% 20%  
94 6% 15%  
95 3% 10%  
96 4% 7%  
97 0.9% 3%  
98 1.1% 2%  
99 0.4% 0.6%  
100 0.1% 0.2%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.1% 99.8%  
79 0.5% 99.7% Last Result
80 0.7% 99.2%  
81 1.2% 98%  
82 2% 97%  
83 3% 96%  
84 6% 92%  
85 6% 86% Majority
86 8% 80%  
87 16% 73%  
88 8% 56%  
89 11% 48% Median
90 7% 37%  
91 11% 31%  
92 8% 19%  
93 5% 11%  
94 2% 6%  
95 3% 5%  
96 0.6% 2%  
97 0.9% 1.2%  
98 0.1% 0.3%  
99 0.2% 0.2%  
100 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.8%  
69 0.3% 99.7%  
70 1.1% 99.4%  
71 1.4% 98%  
72 2% 97%  
73 2% 95%  
74 4% 92%  
75 5% 89%  
76 12% 83% Last Result
77 11% 71%  
78 11% 60%  
79 11% 49% Median
80 11% 39%  
81 5% 28%  
82 8% 23%  
83 5% 15%  
84 4% 10%  
85 2% 6% Majority
86 1.4% 4%  
87 1.0% 2%  
88 1.1% 1.4%  
89 0.1% 0.3%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.2% 99.8%  
64 0.3% 99.6%  
65 0.7% 99.4%  
66 0.8% 98.7%  
67 1.3% 98%  
68 3% 97%  
69 5% 94%  
70 7% 89%  
71 6% 82% Median
72 9% 76%  
73 13% 66%  
74 10% 53%  
75 7% 43%  
76 8% 36%  
77 8% 28%  
78 2% 20%  
79 5% 17%  
80 3% 12%  
81 3% 9%  
82 2% 6%  
83 1.4% 4%  
84 2% 2%  
85 0.2% 0.7% Majority
86 0.4% 0.5%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.4% 99.8%  
67 0.6% 99.5%  
68 0.7% 98.9% Last Result
69 1.1% 98%  
70 3% 97%  
71 3% 94%  
72 5% 91%  
73 9% 86%  
74 10% 77%  
75 10% 67%  
76 13% 57%  
77 15% 44% Median
78 10% 29%  
79 5% 19%  
80 5% 14%  
81 6% 9%  
82 2% 3%  
83 0.6% 1.2%  
84 0.4% 0.6%  
85 0.1% 0.2% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.8%  
54 0.4% 99.7%  
55 1.0% 99.3%  
56 0.5% 98%  
57 1.1% 98%  
58 3% 97%  
59 6% 94%  
60 9% 88%  
61 11% 79% Median
62 6% 68%  
63 11% 62%  
64 14% 51%  
65 6% 37%  
66 9% 31%  
67 6% 22%  
68 4% 17%  
69 4% 13%  
70 4% 9%  
71 2% 6%  
72 1.1% 4%  
73 2% 3%  
74 0.3% 0.7%  
75 0.2% 0.4%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.4% 99.8%  
52 1.4% 99.5%  
53 1.5% 98%  
54 1.5% 97%  
55 3% 95%  
56 4% 92%  
57 5% 88%  
58 8% 83%  
59 13% 75% Median
60 7% 62%  
61 8% 55%  
62 11% 48%  
63 12% 36%  
64 7% 24%  
65 6% 18%  
66 4% 12%  
67 3% 8%  
68 2% 5%  
69 0.7% 2%  
70 0.8% 2%  
71 0.2% 0.8%  
72 0.4% 0.6%  
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.4% 99.9%  
48 0.4% 99.5%  
49 2% 99.0%  
50 2% 97%  
51 5% 95%  
52 6% 90%  
53 6% 84%  
54 8% 78%  
55 12% 70%  
56 10% 58% Median
57 10% 49%  
58 8% 39%  
59 5% 31%  
60 8% 26%  
61 8% 18%  
62 2% 10%  
63 4% 7%  
64 1.3% 4%  
65 0.8% 2%  
66 1.3% 2%  
67 0.1% 0.3%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.2% 99.8%  
48 0.4% 99.7%  
49 1.2% 99.3%  
50 3% 98%  
51 5% 95%  
52 5% 91%  
53 12% 86%  
54 10% 73%  
55 13% 64%  
56 13% 51% Median
57 10% 38%  
58 6% 29%  
59 12% 23%  
60 5% 11% Last Result
61 3% 6%  
62 1.0% 3%  
63 1.1% 2%  
64 0.4% 0.7%  
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.3% 99.9%  
37 0.6% 99.7%  
38 0.7% 99.0%  
39 2% 98%  
40 5% 97%  
41 7% 92%  
42 7% 85%  
43 9% 78% Median
44 19% 69%  
45 7% 50%  
46 7% 44%  
47 10% 36%  
48 7% 26%  
49 5% 19%  
50 4% 14%  
51 3% 10%  
52 4% 7%  
53 1.4% 3%  
54 1.0% 2%  
55 0.4% 0.9%  
56 0.4% 0.5%  
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.2% 99.9%  
30 0.2% 99.7%  
31 0.7% 99.4%  
32 2% 98.7%  
33 1.2% 97%  
34 5% 96%  
35 7% 91% Last Result
36 8% 84%  
37 6% 77%  
38 9% 71% Median
39 8% 61%  
40 8% 54%  
41 12% 45%  
42 8% 34%  
43 7% 26%  
44 6% 19%  
45 4% 13%  
46 3% 9%  
47 2% 5%  
48 1.2% 3%  
49 0.5% 2%  
50 0.7% 1.2%  
51 0.2% 0.5%  
52 0.3% 0.4%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations