Opinion Poll by Opinion Perduco, 1–7 October 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 22.8% 21.1–24.6% 20.7–25.1% 20.3–25.6% 19.5–26.5%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 22.2% 20.5–24.0% 20.1–24.5% 19.7–25.0% 18.9–25.8%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 18.7% 17.2–20.4% 16.7–20.9% 16.4–21.3% 15.6–22.2%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 9.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.6–10.7% 7.4–11.1% 6.9–11.7%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 8.2% 7.2–9.5% 6.9–9.8% 6.6–10.1% 6.1–10.8%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 5.5% 4.6–6.5% 4.4–6.8% 4.2–7.1% 3.8–7.7%
Rødt 2.4% 4.6% 3.9–5.6% 3.6–5.9% 3.5–6.2% 3.1–6.7%
Venstre 4.4% 3.7% 3.0–4.6% 2.8–4.8% 2.7–5.1% 2.4–5.5%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.4% 2.7–4.3% 2.5–4.5% 2.4–4.7% 2.1–5.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 40 36–44 35–44 34–45 34–47
Arbeiderpartiet 49 40 38–44 37–44 36–45 33–46
Senterpartiet 19 35 32–37 31–38 30–40 28–41
Fremskrittspartiet 27 16 13–18 13–19 12–20 11–21
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 14 12–16 11–17 11–17 10–19
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 10 8–11 7–12 7–12 2–13
Rødt 1 8 2–10 2–10 2–11 2–11
Venstre 8 2 2–8 2–8 2–8 2–9
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 1–7 1–7 1–8 0–9

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0% 100%  
33 0.4% 99.9%  
34 3% 99.5%  
35 4% 97%  
36 6% 93%  
37 9% 87%  
38 11% 78%  
39 9% 67%  
40 8% 58% Median
41 15% 49%  
42 12% 34%  
43 12% 22%  
44 6% 10%  
45 3% 5% Last Result
46 0.7% 1.5%  
47 0.5% 0.8%  
48 0.1% 0.2%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.1% 99.9%  
33 0.4% 99.8%  
34 0.4% 99.4%  
35 0.8% 99.0%  
36 2% 98%  
37 2% 97%  
38 5% 94%  
39 10% 89%  
40 32% 79% Median
41 9% 46%  
42 11% 37%  
43 10% 26%  
44 12% 16%  
45 3% 4%  
46 0.6% 1.0%  
47 0.3% 0.4%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.4% 99.9%  
29 0.9% 99.4%  
30 2% 98.5%  
31 4% 97%  
32 4% 92%  
33 5% 88%  
34 14% 83%  
35 22% 69% Median
36 29% 47%  
37 10% 18%  
38 3% 8%  
39 2% 5%  
40 2% 3%  
41 0.8% 1.0%  
42 0.1% 0.2%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 1.1% 99.9%  
12 2% 98.8%  
13 8% 97%  
14 22% 89%  
15 16% 67%  
16 19% 51% Median
17 15% 32%  
18 9% 17%  
19 3% 8%  
20 4% 5%  
21 0.4% 0.5%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.8% 99.9%  
11 5% 99.1% Last Result
12 7% 94%  
13 23% 87%  
14 23% 63% Median
15 11% 40%  
16 20% 28%  
17 6% 8%  
18 1.5% 2%  
19 0.7% 1.0%  
20 0.3% 0.3%  
21 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0.8% 100%  
3 0.9% 99.2%  
4 0% 98%  
5 0% 98%  
6 0% 98%  
7 7% 98%  
8 16% 92%  
9 24% 76%  
10 28% 52% Median
11 18% 24%  
12 4% 6%  
13 1.3% 2%  
14 0.3% 0.4%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.2% 100% Last Result
2 18% 99.8%  
3 0% 82%  
4 0% 82%  
5 0% 82%  
6 0.7% 82%  
7 17% 81%  
8 36% 65% Median
9 16% 29%  
10 10% 12%  
11 2% 3%  
12 0.3% 0.3%  
13 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.3% 100%  
2 68% 99.7% Median
3 1.1% 32%  
4 0% 31%  
5 0% 31%  
6 2% 31%  
7 16% 28%  
8 10% 12% Last Result
9 2% 2%  
10 0.2% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 30% 98%  
2 15% 69%  
3 37% 54% Median
4 0% 16%  
5 0% 16%  
6 3% 16%  
7 10% 13%  
8 3% 4% Last Result
9 0.6% 0.7%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 107 100% 102–112 101–113 100–113 96–115
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 102 100% 98–107 97–108 95–109 93–111
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 100 100% 96–104 94–105 93–106 91–108
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 98 100% 92–102 91–103 91–104 89–107
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 97 100% 93–102 92–103 90–103 86–105
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 90 96% 87–94 85–95 84–96 81–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 88 84% 84–92 83–94 81–95 79–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 79 5% 75–83 73–85 71–86 69–87
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 76 0% 72–80 71–80 70–81 67–83
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 89 72 0% 67–76 66–77 66–79 64–83
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 62 71 0% 67–77 66–78 65–78 62–80
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 62 0% 57–67 56–68 56–69 54–73
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 59 0% 54–64 53–66 52–66 51–69
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 56 0% 51–61 50–62 49–64 48–64
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 55 0% 51–59 51–59 50–60 47–62
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 47 0% 42–51 41–53 40–54 38–56
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 41 0% 37–48 36–49 35–50 33–52

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0.4% 99.9%  
96 0.2% 99.6%  
97 0.3% 99.4%  
98 1.0% 99.1%  
99 0.5% 98%  
100 1.4% 98%  
101 3% 96%  
102 5% 93%  
103 5% 88%  
104 8% 84%  
105 16% 76%  
106 6% 59%  
107 12% 53% Median
108 11% 41%  
109 5% 30%  
110 6% 25%  
111 7% 19%  
112 6% 12%  
113 4% 6%  
114 0.9% 2%  
115 1.0% 1.0%  
116 0.1% 0.1%  
117 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0% 100% Last Result
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0.1% 100%  
92 0.1% 99.9%  
93 0.9% 99.8%  
94 0.4% 98.9%  
95 1.3% 98.5%  
96 1.3% 97%  
97 3% 96%  
98 6% 92%  
99 7% 87%  
100 11% 79%  
101 9% 68%  
102 11% 60% Median
103 9% 49%  
104 10% 40%  
105 9% 30%  
106 7% 22%  
107 5% 14%  
108 6% 10%  
109 2% 4%  
110 0.9% 2%  
111 0.7% 1.0%  
112 0.1% 0.2%  
113 0% 0.1%  
114 0% 0.1%  
115 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0.1% 100%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.1% 99.8%  
91 1.0% 99.7%  
92 0.9% 98.6%  
93 3% 98%  
94 2% 95%  
95 2% 93%  
96 6% 90%  
97 10% 84%  
98 10% 74%  
99 12% 64% Median
100 11% 51%  
101 11% 40%  
102 10% 30%  
103 8% 20%  
104 5% 12%  
105 4% 7%  
106 2% 3%  
107 0.5% 1.2%  
108 0.4% 0.7%  
109 0.3% 0.3%  
110 0.1% 0.1%  
111 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0.1% 100%  
89 0.5% 99.8%  
90 0.9% 99.3%  
91 4% 98%  
92 5% 95%  
93 9% 89%  
94 6% 81%  
95 5% 74%  
96 9% 69% Median
97 9% 60%  
98 15% 51%  
99 6% 36%  
100 10% 30%  
101 9% 21%  
102 4% 11%  
103 4% 7%  
104 0.9% 3%  
105 1.5% 2%  
106 0.2% 0.8%  
107 0.4% 0.6% Last Result
108 0.1% 0.2%  
109 0.1% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0.4% 99.9%  
87 0.3% 99.5%  
88 0.9% 99.2%  
89 0.4% 98%  
90 1.0% 98%  
91 1.2% 97%  
92 4% 96%  
93 4% 91%  
94 9% 88%  
95 7% 79%  
96 13% 72%  
97 9% 59% Median
98 14% 50%  
99 7% 36%  
100 7% 29%  
101 10% 22%  
102 8% 13%  
103 3% 5%  
104 2% 2%  
105 0.3% 0.5%  
106 0.2% 0.3%  
107 0.1% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100% Last Result
80 0.1% 99.9%  
81 0.8% 99.9%  
82 0.4% 99.0%  
83 0.6% 98.6%  
84 2% 98%  
85 1.1% 96% Majority
86 4% 94%  
87 7% 90%  
88 12% 83%  
89 10% 71% Median
90 14% 61%  
91 13% 47%  
92 15% 34%  
93 7% 20%  
94 7% 13%  
95 3% 6%  
96 1.2% 3%  
97 0.9% 2%  
98 0.6% 0.7%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
78 0.3% 99.8%  
79 1.0% 99.6%  
80 0.7% 98.6%  
81 1.0% 98%  
82 2% 97%  
83 4% 95%  
84 8% 91%  
85 6% 84% Majority
86 10% 78%  
87 9% 68%  
88 10% 59% Median
89 9% 49%  
90 12% 39%  
91 6% 27%  
92 11% 21%  
93 3% 10%  
94 4% 7%  
95 2% 3%  
96 1.0% 2%  
97 0.3% 0.7%  
98 0.2% 0.4%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 1.0% 99.8%  
70 0.3% 98.8%  
71 1.0% 98%  
72 1.5% 97%  
73 3% 96%  
74 2% 93%  
75 11% 91%  
76 5% 81% Last Result
77 8% 76%  
78 12% 67% Median
79 13% 56%  
80 11% 43%  
81 10% 32%  
82 10% 22%  
83 4% 12%  
84 3% 9%  
85 3% 5% Majority
86 1.0% 3%  
87 1.1% 2%  
88 0.3% 0.5%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0% 99.9%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.9% 99.8%  
68 0.6% 98.8% Last Result
69 0.5% 98%  
70 2% 98%  
71 3% 96%  
72 4% 93%  
73 4% 89%  
74 12% 85%  
75 14% 73% Median
76 18% 59%  
77 12% 41%  
78 12% 30%  
79 8% 18%  
80 6% 10%  
81 3% 4%  
82 0.4% 1.0%  
83 0.4% 0.6%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.2% 99.9%  
64 0.3% 99.7%  
65 2% 99.5%  
66 3% 98%  
67 8% 95%  
68 10% 87%  
69 7% 78%  
70 7% 71%  
71 14% 64% Median
72 9% 50%  
73 13% 41%  
74 7% 28%  
75 9% 21%  
76 4% 12%  
77 4% 9%  
78 1.2% 4%  
79 1.0% 3%  
80 0.4% 2%  
81 0.9% 2%  
82 0.3% 0.8%  
83 0.4% 0.5%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.4% 99.8% Last Result
63 0.2% 99.4%  
64 1.5% 99.2%  
65 0.9% 98%  
66 4% 97%  
67 4% 93%  
68 9% 89%  
69 10% 79%  
70 6% 70%  
71 15% 64%  
72 9% 49% Median
73 9% 39%  
74 5% 31%  
75 6% 26%  
76 9% 19%  
77 5% 11%  
78 4% 5%  
79 0.9% 2%  
80 0.5% 0.7%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 1.0% 99.9%  
55 0.9% 98.9%  
56 4% 98%  
57 6% 94%  
58 7% 88%  
59 6% 81%  
60 5% 75%  
61 11% 70% Median
62 12% 59%  
63 6% 47%  
64 16% 41%  
65 8% 24%  
66 5% 16%  
67 5% 12%  
68 3% 7%  
69 1.4% 4%  
70 0.5% 2%  
71 1.0% 2%  
72 0.3% 0.9%  
73 0.2% 0.6%  
74 0.4% 0.4%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.2% 100%  
51 0.3% 99.7%  
52 2% 99.4%  
53 4% 97%  
54 5% 94%  
55 6% 89%  
56 7% 83%  
57 6% 76%  
58 10% 69% Median
59 11% 59%  
60 8% 48%  
61 12% 40%  
62 8% 28%  
63 9% 20%  
64 4% 11%  
65 1.5% 7%  
66 4% 6%  
67 0.9% 2%  
68 0.3% 1.4%  
69 0.8% 1.2%  
70 0.1% 0.4%  
71 0.2% 0.2%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.3% 100%  
48 1.0% 99.7%  
49 3% 98.6%  
50 4% 95%  
51 6% 92%  
52 9% 86%  
53 8% 77%  
54 7% 69%  
55 9% 62%  
56 11% 52% Median
57 9% 41%  
58 7% 32%  
59 10% 25%  
60 4% 14%  
61 3% 10%  
62 3% 7%  
63 0.9% 4%  
64 3% 3%  
65 0.3% 0.4%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 0.2% 99.7%  
48 0.4% 99.5%  
49 0.9% 99.0%  
50 2% 98%  
51 7% 96%  
52 7% 89%  
53 9% 81%  
54 12% 73% Median
55 13% 61%  
56 21% 48%  
57 9% 27%  
58 7% 18%  
59 6% 11%  
60 3% 5% Last Result
61 0.6% 1.5%  
62 0.6% 0.9%  
63 0.3% 0.4%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.6% 100%  
39 1.4% 99.3%  
40 2% 98%  
41 4% 96%  
42 6% 92%  
43 9% 86%  
44 9% 78%  
45 6% 68% Median
46 9% 62%  
47 12% 54%  
48 17% 42%  
49 6% 25%  
50 6% 20%  
51 4% 13%  
52 3% 9%  
53 3% 6%  
54 2% 4%  
55 0.5% 2%  
56 0.7% 1.0%  
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0.4% 100%  
33 0.8% 99.5%  
34 0.7% 98.7%  
35 2% 98% Last Result
36 2% 97%  
37 7% 94%  
38 8% 88%  
39 12% 80%  
40 11% 69% Median
41 17% 57%  
42 5% 40%  
43 4% 35%  
44 5% 30%  
45 7% 25%  
46 5% 18%  
47 2% 13%  
48 5% 10%  
49 3% 5%  
50 2% 3%  
51 0.4% 1.0%  
52 0.4% 0.5%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations