Opinion Poll by Norstat, 15–21 October 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 21.6% 20.0–23.4% 19.5–24.0% 19.1–24.4% 18.3–25.3%
Høyre 25.0% 20.1% 18.5–21.9% 18.1–22.4% 17.7–22.8% 16.9–23.7%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 18.1% 16.5–19.8% 16.1–20.3% 15.7–20.7% 15.0–21.5%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 11.7% 10.5–13.2% 10.1–13.6% 9.8–14.0% 9.2–14.7%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.8% 6.7–9.0% 6.4–9.3% 6.2–9.7% 5.7–10.3%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 6.2% 5.3–7.4% 5.1–7.7% 4.9–8.0% 4.5–8.6%
Rødt 2.4% 5.0% 4.1–6.0% 3.9–6.3% 3.7–6.6% 3.4–7.1%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.6% 2.9–4.5% 2.7–4.7% 2.5–5.0% 2.3–5.4%
Venstre 4.4% 3.3% 2.7–4.2% 2.5–4.5% 2.4–4.7% 2.1–5.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 39 37–44 36–44 35–44 33–45
Høyre 45 35 33–39 32–40 31–41 29–42
Senterpartiet 19 33 30–37 29–37 29–38 27–40
Fremskrittspartiet 27 21 18–24 17–24 17–25 15–26
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 14 12–16 11–17 10–17 9–18
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 11 9–13 9–13 8–14 8–15
Rødt 1 9 7–10 2–11 2–12 2–12
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 1–8 1–8 1–8 0–9
Venstre 8 2 2–7 2–8 2–8 1–9

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.1% 99.9%  
33 0.2% 99.7%  
34 0.7% 99.5%  
35 3% 98.7%  
36 4% 96%  
37 14% 92%  
38 13% 78%  
39 17% 65% Median
40 16% 48%  
41 6% 31%  
42 8% 25%  
43 5% 17%  
44 10% 12%  
45 2% 2%  
46 0.3% 0.3%  
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.1% 99.9%  
29 0.6% 99.8%  
30 1.2% 99.2%  
31 2% 98%  
32 4% 96%  
33 15% 91%  
34 13% 76%  
35 15% 63% Median
36 18% 49%  
37 14% 30%  
38 6% 17%  
39 3% 11%  
40 5% 8%  
41 2% 3%  
42 0.4% 0.8%  
43 0.4% 0.5%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.2% 99.9%  
27 0.6% 99.7%  
28 0.8% 99.2%  
29 5% 98%  
30 9% 93%  
31 5% 84%  
32 7% 79%  
33 22% 72% Median
34 16% 50%  
35 13% 33%  
36 5% 20%  
37 10% 15%  
38 3% 5%  
39 1.1% 2%  
40 0.4% 0.8%  
41 0.2% 0.4%  
42 0.1% 0.2%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.6% 99.9%  
16 1.4% 99.3%  
17 6% 98%  
18 9% 92%  
19 11% 83%  
20 11% 71%  
21 26% 60% Median
22 12% 33%  
23 9% 21%  
24 8% 13%  
25 4% 5%  
26 0.9% 1.2%  
27 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.5% 100%  
10 3% 99.4%  
11 5% 97% Last Result
12 15% 92%  
13 16% 76%  
14 28% 60% Median
15 18% 32%  
16 7% 14%  
17 6% 7%  
18 0.7% 1.0%  
19 0.2% 0.3%  
20 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.3% 100%  
8 3% 99.7%  
9 16% 97%  
10 18% 81%  
11 21% 63% Median
12 26% 41%  
13 11% 15%  
14 3% 4%  
15 0.9% 1.2%  
16 0.2% 0.3%  
17 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 6% 100%  
3 0% 94%  
4 0% 94%  
5 0% 94%  
6 0.3% 94%  
7 12% 93%  
8 24% 82%  
9 25% 58% Median
10 25% 33%  
11 5% 7%  
12 2% 3%  
13 0.3% 0.4%  
14 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.8% 100%  
1 25% 99.2%  
2 18% 75%  
3 33% 56% Median
4 0% 23%  
5 0% 23%  
6 1.4% 23%  
7 11% 22%  
8 10% 11% Last Result
9 1.2% 1.4%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 2% 99.9%  
2 77% 98% Median
3 5% 22%  
4 0% 17%  
5 0% 17%  
6 0.6% 17%  
7 10% 16%  
8 6% 7% Last Result
9 0.8% 0.8%  
10 0% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 107 100% 102–110 101–112 100–112 97–114
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 101 100% 97–106 96–107 95–108 92–110
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 98 100% 94–102 93–103 92–104 89–106
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 96 100% 92–100 90–101 90–103 88–106
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 96 99.8% 91–99 89–100 88–101 86–103
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 87 80% 83–92 82–94 81–95 78–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 87 79% 83–91 82–92 81–93 78–95
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 76 3% 72–81 70–83 70–85 68–87
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 73 0.2% 69–78 69–80 68–81 66–83
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 73 0% 69–77 68–78 67–79 65–81
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 62 0% 59–67 57–68 56–69 55–72
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 59 0% 55–64 53–65 53–65 51–68
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 56 0% 52–61 50–62 49–63 48–64
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 54 0% 50–58 49–58 48–59 46–61
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 41 0% 38–46 37–47 36–49 35–51
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 39 0% 36–45 34–47 33–48 32–50

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0.1% 99.8%  
96 0.2% 99.7%  
97 0.3% 99.5%  
98 0.7% 99.3%  
99 0.9% 98.6%  
100 1.0% 98%  
101 5% 97%  
102 3% 92%  
103 6% 89%  
104 12% 83%  
105 8% 71%  
106 10% 63% Median
107 12% 54%  
108 17% 42%  
109 7% 25%  
110 9% 18%  
111 4% 9%  
112 3% 5%  
113 1.3% 2%  
114 0.9% 1.2%  
115 0.2% 0.3%  
116 0.1% 0.1%  
117 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0% 100% Last Result
89 0% 100%  
90 0.1% 100%  
91 0.1% 99.9%  
92 0.3% 99.8%  
93 0.4% 99.5%  
94 0.9% 99.1%  
95 2% 98%  
96 3% 96%  
97 7% 94%  
98 5% 87%  
99 15% 81%  
100 11% 66% Median
101 10% 55%  
102 7% 45%  
103 10% 38%  
104 12% 27%  
105 4% 16%  
106 4% 12%  
107 3% 8%  
108 3% 5%  
109 1.1% 2%  
110 1.0% 1.3%  
111 0.1% 0.3%  
112 0.1% 0.2%  
113 0.1% 0.1%  
114 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0.1% 100%  
87 0.1% 99.9%  
88 0.2% 99.8%  
89 0.2% 99.7%  
90 0.7% 99.5%  
91 0.8% 98.8%  
92 2% 98%  
93 3% 96%  
94 6% 93%  
95 6% 87%  
96 14% 81%  
97 8% 67% Median
98 21% 59%  
99 7% 38%  
100 11% 31%  
101 8% 20%  
102 4% 11%  
103 3% 7%  
104 2% 4%  
105 0.8% 2%  
106 0.9% 1.3%  
107 0.2% 0.4%  
108 0.2% 0.2%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
86 0.1% 100%  
87 0.2% 99.9%  
88 0.8% 99.7%  
89 0.7% 99.0%  
90 3% 98%  
91 3% 95%  
92 7% 92%  
93 6% 85%  
94 11% 80% Median
95 11% 69%  
96 15% 58%  
97 12% 43%  
98 9% 31%  
99 10% 22%  
100 5% 12%  
101 3% 7%  
102 1.2% 4%  
103 2% 3%  
104 0.5% 1.4%  
105 0.3% 0.8%  
106 0.1% 0.6%  
107 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
108 0.1% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 0.2% 99.8% Majority
86 0.5% 99.6%  
87 0.6% 99.1%  
88 2% 98%  
89 2% 97%  
90 2% 94%  
91 4% 92%  
92 8% 88%  
93 5% 80%  
94 9% 75%  
95 12% 65% Median
96 11% 54%  
97 17% 43%  
98 9% 25%  
99 7% 17%  
100 5% 10%  
101 2% 4%  
102 1.2% 2%  
103 0.6% 0.9%  
104 0.2% 0.3%  
105 0.1% 0.1%  
106 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
78 0.5% 99.8%  
79 0.2% 99.4%  
80 1.1% 99.1%  
81 2% 98%  
82 2% 96%  
83 4% 93%  
84 9% 89%  
85 12% 80% Majority
86 13% 67% Median
87 6% 55%  
88 9% 48%  
89 9% 40%  
90 10% 31%  
91 8% 22%  
92 5% 13%  
93 2% 8%  
94 3% 6%  
95 1.4% 3%  
96 1.0% 2%  
97 0.7% 1.1%  
98 0.3% 0.4%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.8%  
78 0.3% 99.7%  
79 0.6% 99.4% Last Result
80 1.0% 98.8%  
81 1.3% 98%  
82 4% 96%  
83 5% 92%  
84 8% 87%  
85 9% 79% Majority
86 12% 70% Median
87 15% 58%  
88 16% 43%  
89 7% 26%  
90 7% 20%  
91 7% 13%  
92 3% 6%  
93 2% 3%  
94 0.7% 2%  
95 0.5% 1.0%  
96 0.3% 0.5%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.2% 99.8%  
68 0.4% 99.6%  
69 1.1% 99.2%  
70 3% 98%  
71 3% 95%  
72 10% 92%  
73 6% 82%  
74 9% 76%  
75 13% 68% Median
76 6% 54% Last Result
77 8% 49%  
78 9% 41%  
79 9% 32%  
80 4% 23%  
81 8% 18%  
82 4% 10%  
83 1.3% 6%  
84 2% 5%  
85 1.3% 3% Majority
86 0.5% 1.3%  
87 0.6% 0.7%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.2% 99.8%  
66 0.7% 99.6%  
67 1.3% 98.9%  
68 2% 98%  
69 5% 95%  
70 7% 90%  
71 9% 83%  
72 18% 74% Median
73 11% 56%  
74 12% 46%  
75 9% 34%  
76 5% 25%  
77 8% 20%  
78 4% 12%  
79 2% 8%  
80 2% 5%  
81 2% 3%  
82 0.6% 1.5%  
83 0.5% 0.9%  
84 0.2% 0.4%  
85 0.1% 0.2% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.3% 99.9%  
65 0.5% 99.6%  
66 0.5% 99.0%  
67 3% 98.5%  
68 3% 96% Last Result
69 7% 93%  
70 5% 87%  
71 11% 82%  
72 10% 71% Median
73 19% 62%  
74 9% 42%  
75 10% 34%  
76 10% 24%  
77 7% 14%  
78 3% 7%  
79 2% 4%  
80 0.8% 2%  
81 0.4% 0.7%  
82 0.3% 0.4%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.3% 99.9%  
55 0.9% 99.6%  
56 1.3% 98.6%  
57 3% 97%  
58 4% 95%  
59 9% 91%  
60 7% 82%  
61 17% 74% Median
62 12% 57%  
63 10% 46%  
64 8% 36%  
65 12% 28%  
66 6% 17%  
67 3% 11%  
68 5% 8%  
69 1.0% 3%  
70 0.8% 2%  
71 0.6% 1.3%  
72 0.3% 0.7%  
73 0.1% 0.4%  
74 0.1% 0.3%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.2% 99.8%  
51 0.8% 99.6%  
52 1.1% 98.8%  
53 3% 98%  
54 3% 95%  
55 5% 92%  
56 9% 87%  
57 10% 78%  
58 11% 68% Median
59 13% 57%  
60 9% 44%  
61 11% 34%  
62 8% 24%  
63 5% 16%  
64 5% 11%  
65 4% 6%  
66 0.7% 2%  
67 0.8% 1.5%  
68 0.4% 0.7%  
69 0.2% 0.4%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.2% 99.9%  
48 0.5% 99.7%  
49 2% 99.2%  
50 3% 97%  
51 4% 94%  
52 4% 91%  
53 7% 86%  
54 11% 79%  
55 10% 68%  
56 10% 58% Median
57 13% 47%  
58 9% 35%  
59 10% 25%  
60 4% 15%  
61 4% 11%  
62 4% 8%  
63 3% 3%  
64 0.3% 0.8%  
65 0.3% 0.5%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.1% 99.8%  
46 0.3% 99.7%  
47 0.6% 99.4%  
48 2% 98.8%  
49 3% 97%  
50 8% 94%  
51 18% 86%  
52 6% 68%  
53 10% 62% Median
54 21% 52%  
55 9% 31%  
56 6% 21%  
57 5% 15%  
58 6% 10%  
59 2% 4%  
60 0.9% 1.5% Last Result
61 0.4% 0.5%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0% 100%  
34 0.2% 99.9%  
35 1.0% 99.7%  
36 2% 98.8%  
37 3% 97%  
38 15% 95%  
39 6% 79%  
40 11% 74% Median
41 13% 63%  
42 11% 50%  
43 12% 39%  
44 8% 27%  
45 5% 19%  
46 7% 14%  
47 3% 7%  
48 2% 5%  
49 2% 3%  
50 0.4% 1.2%  
51 0.5% 0.8%  
52 0.2% 0.4%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.2% 99.9%  
32 0.6% 99.7%  
33 2% 99.1%  
34 3% 97%  
35 3% 95% Last Result
36 10% 91%  
37 15% 82%  
38 12% 67% Median
39 8% 55%  
40 4% 47%  
41 4% 43%  
42 14% 39%  
43 9% 25%  
44 5% 16%  
45 3% 10%  
46 2% 7%  
47 2% 5%  
48 1.2% 3%  
49 1.1% 2%  
50 0.6% 0.9%  
51 0.2% 0.3%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

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Opinion Poll

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