Opinion Poll by Sentio, 26 November–2 December 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 24.2% 22.5–26.0% 22.1–26.5% 21.6–27.0% 20.9–27.8%
Høyre 25.0% 20.8% 19.2–22.5% 18.8–23.0% 18.4–23.4% 17.7–24.3%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 15.6% 14.2–17.2% 13.8–17.6% 13.5–18.0% 12.8–18.8%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 11.1% 9.9–12.5% 9.6–12.9% 9.3–13.2% 8.7–13.9%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 8.3% 7.3–9.5% 7.0–9.9% 6.7–10.2% 6.3–10.8%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 6.9% 6.0–8.0% 5.7–8.4% 5.5–8.7% 5.1–9.2%
Rødt 2.4% 5.6% 4.8–6.6% 4.5–7.0% 4.3–7.2% 4.0–7.7%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.5% 2.9–4.4% 2.7–4.6% 2.5–4.8% 2.2–5.3%
Venstre 4.4% 2.4% 1.9–3.2% 1.7–3.4% 1.6–3.6% 1.4–3.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 43 39–46 39–47 39–48 37–50
Høyre 45 36 33–40 31–41 30–41 30–43
Senterpartiet 19 28 25–33 24–34 24–34 23–35
Fremskrittspartiet 27 20 17–23 16–23 16–23 15–25
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 15 12–17 12–17 12–18 11–19
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 12 10–14 10–14 10–15 9–16
Rødt 1 10 8–12 8–12 8–13 7–13
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 1–7 1–7 1–8 0–9
Venstre 8 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–2

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0% 100%  
37 0.5% 99.9%  
38 1.0% 99.4%  
39 10% 98%  
40 5% 89%  
41 10% 84%  
42 14% 74%  
43 11% 61% Median
44 28% 50%  
45 11% 22%  
46 5% 11%  
47 3% 6%  
48 0.9% 3%  
49 0.8% 2% Last Result
50 0.8% 1.1%  
51 0.1% 0.3%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 4% 99.9%  
31 3% 96%  
32 2% 93%  
33 5% 91%  
34 8% 86%  
35 17% 79%  
36 18% 62% Median
37 8% 44%  
38 11% 36%  
39 15% 25%  
40 3% 10%  
41 6% 7%  
42 0.5% 1.3%  
43 0.7% 0.8%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
46 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100% Last Result
20 0% 100%  
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.2% 99.8%  
23 2% 99.6%  
24 3% 98%  
25 8% 95%  
26 7% 86%  
27 13% 80%  
28 17% 66% Median
29 7% 50%  
30 6% 43%  
31 11% 37%  
32 5% 26%  
33 12% 21%  
34 6% 8%  
35 2% 2%  
36 0.3% 0.5%  
37 0.1% 0.2%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.2% 100%  
15 0.7% 99.7%  
16 8% 99.0%  
17 6% 91%  
18 19% 85%  
19 14% 65%  
20 11% 51% Median
21 13% 40%  
22 17% 27%  
23 8% 10%  
24 1.3% 2%  
25 0.7% 0.9%  
26 0.2% 0.2%  
27 0% 0% Last Result

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.3% 100%  
11 2% 99.7% Last Result
12 10% 98%  
13 12% 87%  
14 24% 75%  
15 26% 51% Median
16 12% 25%  
17 10% 13%  
18 2% 3%  
19 0.8% 1.0%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0.1% 100%  
9 2% 99.9%  
10 9% 98%  
11 26% 90%  
12 33% 63% Median
13 18% 30%  
14 9% 13%  
15 3% 4%  
16 0.5% 0.8%  
17 0.2% 0.2%  
18 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0% 100% Last Result
2 0.3% 100%  
3 0% 99.7%  
4 0% 99.7%  
5 0% 99.7%  
6 0% 99.7%  
7 1.3% 99.7%  
8 14% 98%  
9 20% 84%  
10 40% 64% Median
11 11% 23%  
12 7% 12%  
13 4% 4%  
14 0.4% 0.5%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.2% 100%  
1 20% 98.8%  
2 18% 79%  
3 39% 61% Median
4 0% 22%  
5 0% 22%  
6 0% 22%  
7 17% 22%  
8 4% 5% Last Result
9 0.6% 0.7%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 12% 100%  
1 60% 88% Median
2 28% 28%  
3 0% 0.2%  
4 0% 0.2%  
5 0% 0.2%  
6 0% 0.2%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 108 100% 104–113 103–114 102–115 100–115
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 101 100% 98–107 97–109 96–110 94–110
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 98 100% 95–103 94–104 92–105 90–106
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 96 100% 92–101 90–102 90–103 88–104
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 86 74% 83–93 82–96 82–96 79–97
Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 89 96% 86–93 85–93 83–95 81–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 87 73% 82–91 82–92 80–93 78–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 75 2% 70–81 69–84 69–84 67–86
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 73 0% 68–77 67–79 66–79 65–81
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 72 0% 68–77 67–78 66–78 64–79
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 61 0% 56–65 55–66 54–67 54–69
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 58 0% 54–60 54–62 53–63 52–64
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 58 0% 53–61 50–63 49–63 49–65
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 57 0% 51–60 49–62 48–62 48–64
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 40 0% 37–45 37–45 36–47 35–48
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 33 0% 29–39 28–41 27–42 26–43

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
81 0% 100% Last Result
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0% 100%  
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 100%  
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 100%  
97 0% 100%  
98 0.1% 99.9%  
99 0% 99.9%  
100 0.3% 99.8%  
101 0.6% 99.5%  
102 2% 98.9%  
103 4% 97%  
104 4% 93%  
105 5% 90%  
106 6% 84%  
107 20% 79%  
108 14% 59% Median
109 8% 45%  
110 10% 37%  
111 8% 27%  
112 7% 19%  
113 7% 12%  
114 2% 5%  
115 2% 3%  
116 0.2% 0.4%  
117 0.1% 0.2%  
118 0% 0.1%  
119 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0% 100% Last Result
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 100%  
91 0% 100%  
92 0.3% 100%  
93 0.1% 99.7%  
94 0.6% 99.6%  
95 0.7% 99.1%  
96 2% 98%  
97 3% 96%  
98 7% 94%  
99 8% 87%  
100 24% 79%  
101 11% 55% Median
102 6% 44%  
103 8% 37%  
104 5% 29%  
105 5% 24%  
106 6% 19%  
107 3% 13%  
108 1.4% 9%  
109 3% 8%  
110 4% 5%  
111 0.3% 0.5%  
112 0.1% 0.2%  
113 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0% 100%  
88 0.1% 100%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.4% 99.8%  
91 0.6% 99.5%  
92 2% 98.8%  
93 1.3% 97%  
94 3% 96%  
95 8% 93%  
96 5% 85%  
97 18% 80%  
98 18% 62% Median
99 10% 44%  
100 4% 34%  
101 9% 30%  
102 7% 21%  
103 8% 14%  
104 3% 5%  
105 2% 3%  
106 0.3% 0.6%  
107 0.1% 0.3%  
108 0.1% 0.2%  
109 0% 0.1%  
110 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100% Last Result
81 0% 100%  
82 0% 100%  
83 0% 100%  
84 0% 100%  
85 0% 100% Majority
86 0% 100%  
87 0.2% 99.9%  
88 1.0% 99.7%  
89 0.5% 98.7%  
90 4% 98%  
91 3% 94%  
92 2% 92%  
93 7% 89%  
94 10% 82%  
95 12% 73%  
96 11% 61% Median
97 11% 49%  
98 10% 38%  
99 7% 28%  
100 5% 21%  
101 10% 15%  
102 2% 5%  
103 1.3% 3%  
104 2% 2%  
105 0.1% 0.3%  
106 0.1% 0.1%  
107 0.1% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100% Last Result
78 0.3% 99.9%  
79 0.3% 99.6%  
80 0.8% 99.3%  
81 0.7% 98.6%  
82 4% 98%  
83 8% 94%  
84 12% 86%  
85 13% 74% Majority
86 11% 61% Median
87 7% 50%  
88 8% 43%  
89 6% 35%  
90 6% 29%  
91 6% 22%  
92 5% 16%  
93 2% 11%  
94 1.0% 9%  
95 2% 8%  
96 4% 6%  
97 2% 2%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Høyre – Senterpartiet – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100%  
80 0.3% 99.9%  
81 0.2% 99.6%  
82 0.9% 99.4%  
83 1.2% 98%  
84 2% 97%  
85 2% 96% Majority
86 7% 94%  
87 12% 87%  
88 7% 75% Median
89 19% 69%  
90 9% 50%  
91 14% 40%  
92 6% 27%  
93 17% 21%  
94 1.5% 4%  
95 2% 3%  
96 0.2% 0.7%  
97 0.2% 0.5%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  
102 0% 0%  
103 0% 0%  
104 0% 0%  
105 0% 0%  
106 0% 0%  
107 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.2% 100%  
78 1.2% 99.8%  
79 0.5% 98.5% Last Result
80 0.8% 98%  
81 0.8% 97%  
82 7% 96%  
83 9% 90%  
84 8% 81%  
85 11% 73% Majority
86 9% 63% Median
87 20% 54%  
88 6% 34%  
89 6% 28%  
90 5% 23%  
91 10% 17%  
92 4% 7%  
93 3% 3%  
94 0.5% 0.8%  
95 0.2% 0.3%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.3% 99.9%  
67 0.4% 99.6%  
68 0.7% 99.2%  
69 4% 98%  
70 5% 95%  
71 8% 90%  
72 4% 82%  
73 19% 77%  
74 7% 58% Median
75 8% 51%  
76 8% 43% Last Result
77 4% 35%  
78 5% 31%  
79 6% 26%  
80 8% 20%  
81 3% 12%  
82 2% 9%  
83 0.4% 7%  
84 4% 7%  
85 0.6% 2% Majority
86 2% 2%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 2% 99.7%  
66 1.3% 98%  
67 2% 97%  
68 10% 95%  
69 5% 85%  
70 7% 79%  
71 10% 72%  
72 11% 62% Median
73 11% 51%  
74 12% 39%  
75 10% 27%  
76 7% 18%  
77 2% 11%  
78 3% 8%  
79 4% 6%  
80 0.5% 2%  
81 1.0% 1.3%  
82 0.2% 0.3%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0%  
89 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.2% 99.9%  
64 0.5% 99.8%  
65 1.1% 99.3%  
66 1.4% 98%  
67 4% 97%  
68 6% 93% Last Result
69 5% 86%  
70 20% 82%  
71 10% 61% Median
72 11% 52%  
73 11% 40%  
74 4% 29%  
75 5% 25%  
76 4% 21%  
77 8% 17%  
78 7% 9%  
79 2% 2%  
80 0.2% 0.5%  
81 0.2% 0.3%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.2% 99.8%  
54 2% 99.6%  
55 2% 97%  
56 7% 95%  
57 7% 88%  
58 8% 81%  
59 10% 73%  
60 8% 63% Median
61 14% 55%  
62 20% 41%  
63 6% 21%  
64 5% 16%  
65 4% 10%  
66 4% 7%  
67 2% 3%  
68 0.6% 1.1%  
69 0.3% 0.5%  
70 0% 0.2%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0%  
81 0% 0%  
82 0% 0%  
83 0% 0%  
84 0% 0%  
85 0% 0% Majority
86 0% 0%  
87 0% 0%  
88 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.3% 99.8%  
52 1.0% 99.5%  
53 2% 98%  
54 13% 97%  
55 9% 84%  
56 10% 75%  
57 9% 65%  
58 17% 56% Median
59 22% 39%  
60 8% 17% Last Result
61 2% 9%  
62 3% 7%  
63 2% 4%  
64 2% 2%  
65 0.4% 0.5%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 4% 99.8%  
50 1.0% 96%  
51 3% 95%  
52 0.9% 91%  
53 6% 90%  
54 8% 84%  
55 3% 76%  
56 7% 73%  
57 13% 66% Median
58 16% 54%  
59 14% 38%  
60 10% 24%  
61 5% 14%  
62 2% 9%  
63 6% 7%  
64 0.4% 2%  
65 0.8% 1.2%  
66 0.1% 0.4%  
67 0.2% 0.2%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0%  
78 0% 0%  
79 0% 0%  
80 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 4% 99.8%  
49 2% 95%  
50 2% 93%  
51 2% 91%  
52 6% 89%  
53 6% 83%  
54 5% 76%  
55 8% 71%  
56 13% 64% Median
57 14% 50%  
58 14% 37%  
59 11% 22%  
60 2% 11%  
61 2% 9%  
62 5% 7%  
63 1.4% 2%  
64 0.4% 0.7%  
65 0.3% 0.3%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0%  
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0% Last Result

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.2% 99.9%  
35 0.8% 99.7%  
36 1.4% 98.8%  
37 12% 97%  
38 8% 86%  
39 15% 78%  
40 14% 63% Median
41 9% 49%  
42 10% 40%  
43 14% 30%  
44 4% 17%  
45 8% 13%  
46 2% 5%  
47 2% 3%  
48 0.5% 0.7%  
49 0.2% 0.3%  
50 0% 0.1%  
51 0% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.2% 99.9%  
26 0.5% 99.7%  
27 3% 99.2%  
28 3% 96%  
29 7% 93%  
30 11% 86%  
31 7% 76%  
32 15% 69% Median
33 7% 54%  
34 5% 47%  
35 15% 42% Last Result
36 5% 27%  
37 7% 22%  
38 3% 15%  
39 3% 12%  
40 0.8% 9%  
41 5% 8%  
42 1.4% 3%  
43 2% 2%  
44 0.2% 0.3%  
45 0% 0.1%  
46 0% 0.1%  
47 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations